grazman

Is it though? When I first saw it I thought it was pretty far-fetched, but it could have some substance, particularly if the real issue isn't homesickness. We have all conveniently fallen for that reasoning, but do we know it's true? With our list, it's unlikely Jesse could maximise his earnings like he could at either Freo or GCS. The Suns may offer him 6 mil over 5 years if May leaves and they load the contract appropriately (apparently the Freo offer is 4.5 mil over 5 years). God knows with the loss of Ablett and now Lynch they need some sort of drawcard to get the few fans they have to turn up to home games, it ain't going to be Lachie Weller. All this may or may not tempt Hogan (no pun intended), but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. I could completely understand if Jesse and his manager may not want to ever speak to Freo again after what's gone on (again based on the assumption they were blind-sided by their churlish tactics the way everyone else was)

With Dayne Beams now wanting to go back to the Pies I smell a complicated four way trade involving him Hogan, Neale, Tom Langdon and picks involved.

Yep, and conveniently ignore that if they get a top 3 pick for him next year it will be from the AFL and not the club he goes to and also because they've stunk it up for another year. They are conflating issues. GCS do not want May at the club if he won't commit long term which he won't ergo they have to trade him for less than what they would get from the AFL next year.

I don't think they'll get Lobb, I think he'll go to the Eagles.

I think the draft picks are arbitrary to a certain point in that pick 4 in one draft isn't equal to pick 4 in another. I think all that matters to the club will be for it to get what it needs to get the outcomes it wants ( May, KK and something else)

Probably because it means we have a better hand to offer GWS for Shiel!

Yeah Nah. This from the club that was emphatically not going to trade GAJ and hold him to his contract. It's a millstone around their neck carrying a player they know won't be there the following season. It's a distraction they need to do without. Their tough talk is just that, they will get a good pick for May and they'll do it this year. We're in the box seat compared to the likes of Collingwood and Hawthorn who don't look likely to be able to gazump us - providing May wants to play for the Dees.

Great user name btw - one of my all-time favourite albums!

sounds like SoS is planning on giving up Pick 1? They must really be planning on throwing money at Kelly and Whitfield to stay.

That's true, but is 6 & 10 fair value for Hogan? That has to be the starting point for negotiations for the MFC. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect pick 5 & 6 for Hogan* (3629 points) In other words what is closest to what we paid for him in the first place (picks 3 & 13 - 3446 points) plus our development of him. If we need to we can throw in our third pick this year (ours not the one we have from Adelaide for Lever) likely pick 53 or thereabouts to even it out. Freo may well want to offer us 6 & 10, after they deal with Port but for me that is unders for someone like Hogan. We could do that sort of deal for ourselves. Picks 5 & 6 and our first round pick for 2019 (somewhere between 1,112 and 985 points) for May, KK and one of their early picks (for arguments sake let's say pick 3 - 2,234 points). We could then either use that pick ourselves or trade pick 3 and our second round pick this year (2736 points) for pick 9 & 10 (2864) which is better value for Port than (5 & 22 - 2723 points). It also gives them what they presumably want which is the earliest possible crack at a SA kid. We would then obviously have to use one of picks 9 or 10 ourselves for trading out next year's first pick and look at converting the other pick for players or picks if we have other irons in the fire, which we do. So from a points calculation only ( I wouldn't be inclined to even out the trade with our third pick this year myself). Out. Hogan, 2018 2nd pick, 2018 3rd pick, 2019 1st pick. or Hogan and approximately 1822 current and future points+. In, May, KK, 2018 picks 9 & 10. or May, KK and 2,864 current points. (or in rather simplistic terms it values Hogan as being worth May, KK and about pick 17) Freo lose Neale and their first pick this year, but get Hogan and pick 23 - that seems fair to me (but I am biased). *In all likelihood the draft order will be Brisbane 5 and Freo 6 after Lynch walks to Richmond. + assuming we finish 3rd next year as an indicator only.

You mean Charlie or Max have to change numbers ??

Exactly. We can then look to trade both 4 & 5 to GC and something else* for May, KK and Pick 2 or 3 which we can then try to trade to Port for 9 & 10 or keep for another trade or to use in the draft. I'm not sure why a number of our supporters think that we would have to accept a trade like 5 & 10 for Hogan. If Freo trade Neale for 4 and 22, then ergo Hogan is worth more to them than Neale (because that's why they're trading him). So it has to be pick 4&5, not the 'have my cake and eat it too scenario' that the Docker's supporters concoct. Logically if the Dockers traded 4 to Port for picks 9 &10 before trading with us, we'd be asking for 5, 9 & 10. If they want to keep an early pick then they have to give up either Cerra or Brayshaw who they then have to replace with that pick. * We've apparently sought permission to trade our first round pick next year from the AFL, that probably only works from the AFL perspective if we use a first round pick this year so whether that's 4 or 5 for us to use or to bargain with one of the SA clubs that will tie themselves up in knots to draft one of the SA kids - who will be gagging to get as close to the number one pick as they can.

The number May will wear next year at the MFC?

Yes, but we don't have to accept it.

Why wouldn't we do that deal with Port ourselves? I'd be disappointed if the club wasn't on top of this and demanding that it's Freo's and Brisbane's first picks or no deal until 2019; unless they want to trade us pick 5 and Cerra. Freo can't have their cake and eat it too, 4 and 5 is closer to Hogan's worth than say 5 and 10 (Port will probably only do that deal if it can be Pick 4 to get one of the SA lads). That deal sounds more like a fan trade than a realistic club option.

I 'm not sure winning the premiership will make much of a change to his decision making. I think for Gaff it's a question of whether he wants to come home and be near his family (and be very well compensated) or remain at West Coast and be not so handsomely paid (but still on pretty big money). If anything it may free up room in the Eagles TPP due to not having to fork out over the top money to retain Lycett.

Its clear a lot of Denham's article is predicated on Freo making Hoges the mother of all offers. It all depends on whether he bites. There's obviously something in the air with Neale looking to go to Brisbane though.

Obviously Deboy, Garmin and Pannell aren’t going to be umpiring any GFs anytime soon- unless they umpired our VFL one on the weekend?

Wonder whether the AFL site will hang the young guys out to dry with their rankings when Tyson, Lewis and Jones were insipid and should be held accountable. Two of them should not play in 2019.

If the club had any inkling that Jesse wanted to go home at the end of his current contract it should do this deal, particularly if the player is Langdon.

Melbourne, might still be able to profit. With Tom Lynch leaving the Suns and if May gets traded to the Swans for presumably what the Saints give them for Hanners, then the Suns are likely to have three picks inside the top 6. They need to import experience and plenty of it to help with another slew of high draft picks and a young list. So desperate were they last year they parted with Pick 3 for Lachie Weller. We should look to get back into the top end of the draft.

Yeah the funny one!

Was dropped by Eade and Dew, he’s a quintessential NQR.

I think West Coke will also try and get Mitch from the Crows who wants out and possibly Kelly from the Cats. They need Gaff to go for salary cap relief and also compensation that they can use to shore up potential trade/s.

He'd be irresponsible to stay... ergo he will leave. Not sure if it was Healy or not, but Gerard usually gets pretty good mail. He's pretty close to a number of players.