fr_ap

Do you? I actually asked you to elaborate but you clearly don't know how to address my detailed points and instead resorted to a personal insult. I feel more comfortable acknowledging the statistical differences which are inarguable. You feel comfortable clinging to the past and assuming history will repeat itself. You're not the first to do it and won't be the last. The Media are good at it too. My assessment of our form does not turn on my 'comfort' with failure or success - I'm just repeating widely available objective stats that tell a story for those willing to listen. Goody & Co have repeatedly spoken about not looking at the past. If they were we would never have gotten off the 2019 canvas. If they're looking at '21 & saying "its all good, this happened last year" - not only would they be statistically wrong but they'd be fools as well. As the one drawing parallels to last year with no real justification - you clearly feel more comfortable with blind hope. At least acknowledge it rather than dropping last year's form-line like its a relevant analysis. For what it's worth, I clearly hope I am wrong and you are right

How is this relevant? "It happened last year so it will happen again"? Extremely simplistic, naive & IMO you/most in this thread are grasping for any explanation that makes you feel better about our form. There are so many different variables to this time last year - the most pertinent being we have a very tough run home & have lost most games to our key top 8 competitors, whereas last year we lost/drew to teams well below us & knew very early we stacked up well against our key competitors. We had the measure of the best teams last year and they knew it. There'll be no fear this year & any of Geelong/Freo/Collingwood/Sydney/(Carlton when they beat us) will have a very clear understanding of how to deal with Melbourne at finals time. Brisbane (presuming they don't destroy us at the Gabba) the only ones who will have some memory of what we are like at our best. Crucially, in all of the games you've mentioned last year, we were relatively even statistically for scoring shots & inside 50s - it was either poor kicking or umpires (in the case of the bulldogs game) that cost us. QB against the Pies was the only aberration last year in terms of being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots/all over the ground. Last night we were whalloped in every statistical sense: 31 scoring shots to 18, -20 inside 50s, -25 clearances, conceded 15 marks i50 most within 35m dead in front, often within 20m of unguarded space, which does not happen to us very often. We were easy to score against. We took 6 marks i50 with most of those deep in the pockets. We had no answers at all & the shape of the ground excuse only goes so far. Against Sydney & Collingwood this year, we lost scoring shots comprehensively and conceded a lot of marks i50. Those games we had supply - relatively even i50s - but could not defend. We had some personnel issues (May, Petty) over this time that perhaps exacerbated this, so I'm willing to look past them. Fremantle we were outplayed & beaten in the contest, but the scoreboard looked worse than it was. Pressure and speed have been a consistent theme that we've been unable to cope with. IMO, the make up of the defence with 3 offensively minded/intercepting HBs (Bowey, Salem & Brayshaw) is having a lot to do with this without necessarily providing us any drive going forward. Small/pressure forwards are finding a lot of space against us, which wasn't the case last year. One or both of Hunt/Rivers are a requirement IMV especially with Hibberd's increasingly fragility. No mind their poorer distribution - all we do is kick it to contests at centre wing anyway. My point is - this year we are losing in quite a few different ways. We are losing contest, we are conceding marks i50, we aren't coping with pressure/speed and last night, we lost in every other way. We are relatively predictable & there is a clear blueprint emerging of how to beat us. Maybe this is all par for the course for a reigning premier - after what we did at the pointy end last year, you really get the feeling we are everyone's grand final (both from opposition coaches, players and fans collectively - the sheer joy teams display when they beat us tells you a bit). We are still in a great position & I have faith we can get it done - but we're a long way off. Other than giving us experience to draw upon & a degree of faith, last year has nothing to do with anything. I'd love to hear some actual reasoned explanation as to why you think any of the games you've quoted are a valid precedent for this year. "Loading" might be it - which none of us can confirm. As i said, grasping at straws.

They're an awful bunch there truly. Extremely precious about their seats, how much noise you make etc - they're so used to having 95% of the crowd that it seems to personally offend them if you cheer for the other team

I'm not sure why this keeps being mentioned. It's a different year, with different opponents, in different places, played by players who will feel different, act different and be different to last year. Do you go to work, check your calendar from last year and conclude on what's in store for this year? I appreciate there are loading & tapering profiles but to believe that's the difference pays no respect to the opposition. Geelong have improved and have added speed and pressure around their well established litany of senior seasoned stars. It's not going to take a lot for them to fire. We were comprehensively beaten (this ground or any other) and thats the only way to view the game. I see zero value to comparing it to a game against the Bulldogs a year ago, in front of no crowd, at our home ground. I'm sure we had a different, equally valid excuse at the time...

Not sure about that - that game was equal scoring shots, marks i50 etc but the free kick count killed us. This was different and was a mauling - most rounded loss (as in, all facets of the game) for some time. Small ground plays a part but Geelong have added significant speed and pressure to their game. They're a different outfit this year and if they bring that brand in finals they'll be hard to beat wherever the game is We didn't have a loss like that all last year in terms of scoring shots conceded - lots and lots of easy looks within 30 too. They just happened to miss most of them

It's not been explicitly called out but I think what the Cats have changed in both personnel & method this year is in direct retaliation to our matches & flag salute. For that reason, I think they'll be absolutely primed for this and ready to make a statement (unfortunately). They've built their side this year to knock off Melbourne. The fact pattern is pretty clear: For years Geelong relied on slow chip play to set up the ground & then strong marking forwards (Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan/Esava/other to a lesser extent) to kick a score (3+ tall setup forward). This was good enough against most teams but they then witnessed both Richmond & Melbourne go past them, despite persistent top 4 finishes, as full ground pressure systems collectively outweighed their star power up forward. Fool them once with Richmond - they backed in their system & went back to the well, doubling down with another elite KPF (Cameron). Didnt work. Fool them twice though...I dont think so. Our rise has made them take notice: Our comeback goals at KP in Rd 23 was largely ground ball and/or small/medium forward/midfield goals. Spargo did damage (2), Pickett (3), Oliver (2), Fritsch got out the back for the important one. Brown kicked 2, but Gawn's mark & goal after the siren was actually the aberration - it wasnt he, Tom Mac or Ben Brown that got us over the line. Fast forward to the Prelim - the smalls went to work again - Pickett 3, Fritsch 2, Spargo 2, ANB 1 and 4 goals out of the midfield. Max taking them to the cleaners was a by product of them being worried (rightly so) about our smalls against their slow/strong/tall backline (& of course, an outlier virtuoso performance no one could have stopped in any case) Our strength last year was full ground defense and in particular, key backs / aerial balls into the 50. Their traditional slow gamestyle played into our hands, as has been widely reported. Their plan B for attack was lacking - they had very little by way of crumber/non set-shot goals, particularly with an ageing midfield that cant get forward & back as much as other teams to add scoreboard pressure. Cue - Stengle, Atkins, Close all in the same fwd line with Miers on the bench & reversion to a 2 tall / even 1 tall setup with Cameron roaming around the ground. That is the same number of small forwards we have in the side (4 - Spargo, Pickett, Bedford, ANB). If our strength is/was aerial balls into the D50, this would appear a poor strategy if they continued to play slowly - so of course they've upped the speed of ball movement across the ground - quicker, less chipping & more playing on, creating more space for the speed of these small forwards to be a weapon. Hawkins & Cameron are the trump cards and threatening under any system of play which gives them a constant competitive baseline as/when smalls have down days (common for all but the very best). That ties into their defense. Traditionally dour in a 1v1 sense with strong, tall, slow-ish but tight checking lockdown defenders (when your smallest defender is Bews, you know that's a big backline) as opposed to interceptors - this year their quicker ball movement means they can't rely on their back 6 to be in position all the time. Cue - a roaming & intercepting game plan utilising the height they have in Henry (a very good player), Blicavs and most importantly De Koning for this role. Stewart can play any role & we're lucky he's not in their side at the moment. Kolojashnij is the exception to this role as he still plays a lockdown role. They're better off without Henderson who never had the craft to go with Fritsch. The comparison above shows they're significantly smaller across the ground - 3 talls out for 1. This enables all of the above & means their running power is improved on last year. I trust the FD has studied them in anticipation for this game but don't expect it to play out like last year - they're a different side. In their forwardline alone - Hib was always our matchup for Rohan. Bowey will therefore have to play on one of Stengle, Atkins, Close or Miers. All would back themselves to beat him 1v1 & for pace/craft. Our remaining 'small' defenders are Salem and Brayshaw, neither of whom are close checking, so it wouldnt surprise me to see one of their smalls kick 3 or 4. Hunt for all his flaws could have been a good option in this game. Ditto Rivers who played on their smalls in the equivalent games last year. If Hawkins/Cameron add their customary 2/3+ each, they'll go a long way to getting the job done. Dees by 85

Quite right. But I think playing in the ruck makes him a better forward. His issue has always been that he doesn't engage the body. Takes marks on the lead or with a run and jump at a pack to use his reach. Defenders know this and engage him early and buffet him out of the contest. As a ruck or resting forward he's often given more leeway to run and jump I've got no confidence it will happen but hope this stint can be the making of him. Lord knows the list needs it

He's actually a better ruckman than he is a forward. That's saying something....

I have to agree. On a like for like basis, Bedford is a better small forward than 200cm Coleman medal winning Ben Brown.

It's not really a valid excuse, but we're just not a desperate lowly supporter base. It's cliche, but there's a real class divide. Chelsea have the same thing in the EPL. If you go to a Pies, blues, bombers or tigers game, the types of people who attend are just so different to ours Swathes of kids from struggling suburbs with faces painted. Grown men in worn down trackies and the 90s AFL bomber jackets, for whom you get the impression this is their single affordable outing for the week. Groups of 12 year olds with mullets or dusty cuts up to no good. To many of these people, their team winning is absolutely everything. Theyre raucous and raw in a way most Melbourne supporters would never understand. We get negative and groan, but our excitement just doesn't rival theirs when the whips are cracking. When kids attend our games, they're let down even if we win. The nervous energy in the crowd, the feeling of being in the place to be when there's 65k+....kids yearn for this. Crowds beget crowds. We don't have that working class, passionate supporter base. I'm not sure we ever will - certainly not without 10 years of sustained success bringing a new generation through.

It's genuinely a factor in our performances I think. When we play in front of big crowds, we tend to play better. I am beyond disappointed with our attendances after breaking the drought. I always thought it might tip us into those bigger crowds, but it seems to have done the opposite, satisfied fans to the point where they no longer need attend or get raucous. Ive become convinced it's demographic. The reason Richmond, Collingwood, Carlton get 60k+ regularly is because to be frank, a large majority of their supporter base has nothing else to do & their weekend/lives revolve around the footy. We have dedicated, life long fans, but skewed to a more affluent demographic that is busier and ultimately has more than footy. Our lack of success for so long means most of our fans are rusted on 40+ - busy with life, careers, kids, ageing parents and household duties. We do have the numbers - they turn up to big games. The 2018 finals my best memory of it. They just don't care to through the humdrum of the season. Those of us on the forum are an exception - the fact we're here means we're already the die hards who will attend most weeks if we can.

Happens every time Weid and BB play together. Without fail.

Wouldn't think they'd risk him tbh. Not Goody's style. Will put on ice until he's right. Especially with Salem coming back Gus can move back to the wing. Gus is a much more defensive winger than Ed though, we will miss Ed enormously regardless of who attempts to play his role

Jon Ralph says broken ribs

Their fade outs and some defence on transition is their weakness but I know what I see. Consider this - your view is exactly what other supporters said about us this time last year. Most simply refused to believe we'd stand up when it mattered and couldn't see the forest for the trees. They're not perfect and have lost their two games to contenders around/above them (whereas we won all ours until Dogs later in year), so it's clearly not a done deal. What I do know is I wouldn't want to face them at the G in a final. That midfield can beat or break even with ours and whilst May can take McKay or Curnow, I don't have faith that Lever or Petty could adequately hold the other. Then it would come down to how heavily we could score - which can at times be our weakness on bad days

You, and Sydney, are winning me over Still think the blues will get home unfortunately

Interesting, I wouldnt have thought that was the case Good discussion lads

Agree their profile is hugely offensive - historically very few teams have held that profile up in finals. Hope you're right.

That's Carltons doing mate - implied pressure, bull midfielders and first to the ball. A better team might combat it better, sure. For what it's worth Sydney are overrated - defensively been leaky for most of this year but it hasnt been acknowledged by the populace. But they're still generally a good team. Carlton are better. All that said Sydney lifting a little - don't think it will matter though

Anyone who thinks the umpires or Sydney have anything to do with this doesn't know what they're watching I said it after our pre season loss and will say it again now - if you watch Carlton closely they have found a formula. Contested stuff off the chart - ride tackles as well as any team, serious serious front half pressure, killer key forwards - that's all obvious. But watch their contest stuff - they outnumber, they space well, and they've reached the tipping point good teams do where they have so much confidence in winning the contest they're taking risks while teammates are getting tackled. Intangible stuff is high too - a team in unison, working for each other, clearly in sync. 3rd year I think under Andrew Russell - they've found the running power that takes a few years to build. Doing it ATM without their #1 ruck, Coleman medallist, and a host of others - there's serious depth there. 8-2 - not had the easiest draw - they absolutely have to be taken seriously. Anything less than a prelim is a failure for them. Hope it's not against us (serious 2018 Richmond v Collingwood vibes) as they are genuinely the only team that could overpower us both in the midfield and particularly with Curnow, McKay and their honest worker small fwds. How they go in Finals is the only unknown - with Voss at the helm and the way they're playing I don't think anything will scare them. They'll be there right to the very end. Don't you just hate to see it

Of course Yeo comes back for us. He absolutely hates us, can see it written all over his face when he plays us

Rosman?? Guy can't get near it at casey. Strange call

Taking him at face value....he says he doesn't know what decision he will make. That in itself means he is strongly considering leaving. Call me crazy but I think it makes a lot of sense. He has family there (Andrew & others), would get a much bigger payday he is unlikely to get at the Dees for the rest of his career, and it would be a great adventure and test for him & Danielle before they settle down. Yes their lives are here...but they're beyond connected in footy circles and would have no shortage of mates over there in no time. Freo are on the up too and presuming they don't go all the way this year he would be joining a team poised to challenge where he can help push them over the line. He'd be remembered as a stalwart of both clubs, finish his career a multi club flag player (if they can get there), have more midfield time, more money, and lived (semi) abroad as a circuit breaker before he hits 30 and settles down. Of course he loves his teammates. That won't be a significant factor as he's the type of guy that will fit into any club. If I were in his shoes, I'd be telling Danielle let's have an adventure and see where this takes us. I would go.

1) arms out is not a sign of disrespect. I'd be staggered if any of the current umpires really think so and if they do, I'd argue they are in the wrong profession, and 2) they won't get respect until they can do their job appropriately. Improving the standard is CRITICAL to the respect situation. Save for a small minority, players do not go out of their way to openly disrespect umpires. They are educated on this from an early age and you would find most would in fact acknowledge how important umpires are and how difficult their job can be. Players are also educated on rules and rule changes extensively. On that basis, it is fair to deduce that most of the time, accounting for players personal biases and emotional state, if a player gets angry and expresses his frustration towards an umpire, it reflects his confusion or frustration with the umpires decision. This is very different to disrespect. IF however that confusion/frustration is going to be badged as disrespect, then do something about the confusion/frustration. This starts and ends with improving the standard of umpiring.

Surely you can see that giving them unfettered power to make plainly ridiculous, finicky, pathetic decisions makes this worse, not better? Here's how you build respect: you market AFL umpiring as a full time job. A specialist, important, valued role complete with an attractive package that is worth the scrutiny. You improve the standards. You acknowledge that it is a job that will by definition not please half the spectators that are watching. You acknowledge that is OK and you build resilience towards that dynamic at the top level. You develop an academy with young umpires who you teach these same values. You teach them that sport is a highly physical and emotional endeavour that pushes humans to their limits, and that people can at times step over the line. With this in mind you set the tolerance level for this at reasonable limits, acknowledging that the physical and emotional endeavour is a key reason you have a job running a spectator sport in the first place. Better yet, you acknowledge that the only reason anyone wants to umpire is because they love the sport. So at all times, your guiding principle is that the more you improve the game, the more fans and in turn umpires you attract. That is the long road, and as usual the AFL will take the short road. Muzzling the players is simply not the answer, and it won't stick at local level nor make one iota of tangible difference at a societal level. Ultimately it is not the AFLs job to teach people to respect one another, and if they try they will fail. Their product is just one example in a spectrum of actors, screenwriters, politicians, writers, business people that people and children are watching and emulating whilst being moulded by their parents, teachers and friends. To suggest AFL is anything more than a very small input into this gamut of influences is wrong and stinks of the AFL execs misunderstanding their place focusing on all the wrong things, no doubt led by their lawyers and the PR machine. Their job is to protect the longevity of the game. Simplifying the rules and training people to apply those mostly correctly would do this.