Jump to content

THE HUNTER by The Oracle

Demonland
Demonland
in Match Previews

Featured Replies

Posted

Something struck me as I sat on the couch watching the tragedy of North Melbourne’s attempt to beat Collingwood unfold on Sunday afternoon at the MCG. 

 

It was three quarter time, the scoreboard had the Pies on 12.7.79, a respectable 63.16% in terms of goal kicking ratio. Meanwhile, the Roos’ 18.2.110 was off the charts at 90.00% shooting accuracy. I was thinking at the same time of Melbourne’s final score only six days before, a woeful 6.15.51 or 28.57% against Collingwood’s 14.5.89 (73.68%). 

 

At that very moment I realised that there’s a law at play that will play a very significant role in the outcome of the Melbourne vs North Melbourne game this coming night — the law of averages. 

 

North Melbourne had been the hunter for a long time and against an injury-weakened Collingwood it was primed for a kill thanks to its amazing accuracy in kick for goal. This is what gave it an opportunity to record a famous victory against a premiership contender. But as it transpired, this wasn’t enough and when push came to shove, it lacked the resilience (and the luck) to withstand the final lunge to victory of the reigning premier.

 

The problem for the Roos is that the law of averages says that it’s not likely that they will reproduce the high level of accuracy two weeks in a row, nor will the Demons repeat five posters and a shooting accuracy of under 30% in two games running. On that basis, my theory and I’m sticking to it, is that the Kangaroos will suffer a letdown this week.

 

Melbourne has had a bad month or so since it overcame Geelong and went to a 6 - 2 win, loss ratio. Two of the defeats in the intervening period have seen key players go down with long lasting injuries that most teams can’t afford. Missing Jake Lever from defence and Christian Petracca from the midfield (on top of losing Angus Brayshaw before the season started) has imposed a heavy burden on the Demons. Absent the drive that these divisions generate, it’s not surprising that the forwards have suffered in recent times. 

 

The coaching panel faces its most difficult task in the era of success that generated a premiership only three years ago and, even against the bottom side, they can’t rely on the law of averages alone to get the job done to rise above the below average form of the last five rounds. 

 

I’m less worried about the defence than I am about the midfield in this week’s contest. Even before the Petracca rib/spleen injury fiasco there has been a major drop off in effectiveness of the Melbourne engine room in terms of clearance figures from stoppages and more importantly, in taking control with that vital first possession after the clearance. 

 

The bread and butter of the champion midfield had gone missing. The critics have been pointing to the lower output of the likes of the team’s hard workers like Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver and while that might be the case statistically, it’s now up to them and the new midfield structure to stand up.

 

North has an emerging young midfield brigade that is on an upward tangent at the same time as Melbourne’s seemingly heads downhill. They meet at a critical time for the Demons and it will be on this hill that the game will be decided. The selection of who goes into the midfield mix of Pickett, Neal-Bullen, Rivers, Salem, Langdon, McVee or one of the youngsters like Tholstrup who according to the club’s website “comes into the club with an AFL-ready body”. 

 

Melbourne certainly needs AFL readiness to prove that it rise above recent disappointments and prove that it’s still a contender. A number of commentators have pointed to where Carlton, GWS and Sydney were at this time last year and where they finished. In each instance, those clubs adopted the mindset of the hunter and turned their seasons around in midstream. 

 

The Demons have been the hunted for three years when they occupied a place at the top of the table. Perhaps they’ve become too content with that role and it’s now time to start hunting. The week’s break has come at the right time to rest, take a deep breath and take on the challenge of the hunter.

 

I’m tipping Melbourne to win by 20 points.

 

THE GAME

 

Melbourne v North Melbourne on Saturday 22 June 2024 at the MCG at 7.30pm
 
HEAD TO HEAD


Overall Melbourne 89 wins North Melbourne 82 wins 1 draw
At the MCG Melbourne 56 wins North Melbourne 37 wins  
Last five times Melbourne 5 wins North Melbourne 0 wins 
The coaches Clarkson 0 wins Goodwin 2 wins 

 

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

 

Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated North Melbourne 10.11.71 at Blundstone Arena, Round 21, 2023

 

The Kangaroos responded to the shellacking handed out by the Demons who blitzed them earlier in the season. Early in the second term at Blundstone Arena North held a 33 point lead before Melbourne reined them in to turn the deficit around. It was the brilliance of their small men, notably Kozzie Pickett and Kade Chandler that inspired the comeback.
 

THE TEAMS 

 

MELBOURNE

 

B B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers
HB C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, J. McVee
C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Oliver, C. Windsor
HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, J. Van Rooyen 
F K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, E. Langdon
FOLL M. Gawn J. Viney, T. Sparrow
I/C J. Bowey, T. McDonald, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner SUB K. Brown
EMG B. Laurie, T. Fullarton, T. Woewodin

 

IN K. Brown, K. Tholstrup, A. Tomlinson 

 

OUT J. Billings (omitted), B. Laurie (omitted), C. Petracca (ribs/spleen)


NORTH MELBOURNE

 

B A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink
HB J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald
C Z. Fisher, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott
HF T. Powell, B. Teakle, E. Ford
F P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar
FOLL T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin
I/C W. Fisher, L. Shiels, C. Taylor, D. Tucker SUB D. Stephens 
EMG Z. Duursma, R. Hardeman, C. Harvey

 

IN J. Simpkin, D. Stephens 

 

OUT K. Dawson (suspension), J. Stephenson (omitted)

 

INJURY LIST: ROUND 15

 

Josh Schache — calf / available 

Marty Hore  — calf / 1 - 2 weeks

Jake Lever — knee / 1 - 2 weeks 

Jake Melksham  — knee / 2 - 3 weeks 

Charlie Spargo — Achilles / TBC

Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite

 

PreviewRd152024.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
     

    North were one dubious [censored] up from winning.

    North have been getting better. Their scoring but one indicator. We've been getting worse.

    We may get up by 20 but I wouldn't be relying on any laws of averages with us...  Murphy's ??   Definitely

    Go Dees

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

    North were one dubious [censored] up from winning.

    North have been getting better. Their scoring but one indicator. We've been getting worse.

    We may get up by 20 but I wouldn't be relying on any laws of averages with us...  Murphy's ??   Definitely

    Go Dees

    You are such a negative poster...

    • Like 1
     
    1 hour ago, Ollie fan said:

    You are such a negative poster...

    Reality irks you does it..  lol

    Open your eyes. 

    Or drink up...the koolaid is free.

    If you don't think something is serious amiss well I can't but admire the cozy place you exist within.

    Of course i wan't Melb to win, to be successful; but we are struggling. We were struggling before Trac's unfortunate injury...    and now we're between a rock and a hard place.  That just is. I see no reason nor logic in sugar coating the predicament we're in. 

    Edited by beelzebub

    • Like 2
    • Clap 1

    '...nor will the Demons repeat five posters and a shooting accuracy of under 30% in two games running...'

    June 2023 says hullo: 8.13, 8.18, 8.15, 5.15. September 2023 also gives a shout-out.

    😉

    • Sad 1

    2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

    Reality irks you does it..  lol

    Open your eyes. 

    Or drink up...the koolaid is free.

    If you don't think something is serious amiss well I can't but admire the cozy place you exist within.

    Of course i wan't Melb to win, to be successful; but we are struggling. We were struggling before Trac's unfortunate injury...    and now we're between a rock and a hard place.  That just is. I see no reason nor logic in sugar coating the predicament we're in. 

    Reality bites so we tend to ignore it; just as the Club tends to ignore it across time and losses and poor development. There are other contributing masses and factors (already stated by many) but beelzebub, you are entirely correct. We are in a predicament predicated on a lack of correct action in development. At present, we are in more of a hard place than we care to admit; the Rock of Gibraltar is before us from now to the end of the season (and perhaps more) where we, like little marine ants, look up into the granite ahead waiting for a high tide. 

    • Thanks 1
    3 hours ago, beelzebub said:

    Reality irks you does it..  lol

    Open your eyes. 

    Or drink up...the koolaid is free.

    If you don't think something is serious amiss well I can't but admire the cozy place you exist within.

    Of course i wan't Melb to win, to be successful; but we are struggling. We were struggling before Trac's unfortunate injury...    and now we're between a rock and a hard place.  That just is. I see no reason nor logic in sugar coating the predicament we're in. 

    Tell me more about this free Koolaid...

    • Haha 1
     
    54 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

    The drink of choice round here of late seems to be Melbourne Bitter.

    A draft* or two'll get us out of it...

     

     

    *Yes, I know!

    • Haha 2
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • GAMEDAY: Essendon

      It’s Game Day, and the Demons are staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start for the first time since 2012 as they take on Essendon at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round. In that forgettable season, Melbourne finally broke their drought by toppling the Bombers. Can lightning strike twice? Will the Dees turn their nightmare start around and breathe life back into 2025?

        • Like
      • 38 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: Essendon

      As the focus of the AFL moves exclusively to South Australia for Gather Round, the question is raised as to what are we going to get from the  Melbourne Football Club this weekend? Will it be a repeat of the slop fest of the last three weeks that have seen the team score a measly 174 points and concede 310 or will a return to the City of Churches and the scene where they performed at their best in 2024 act as a wakeup call and bring them out of their early season reverie?  Or will the sleepy Dees treat their fans to a reenactment of their lazy effort from the first Gather Round of two years ago when they allowed the Bombers to trample all over them on a soggy and wet Adelaide Oval? The two examples from above tell us how fickle form can be in football. Last year, a committed group of players turned up in Adelaide with a businesslike mindset. They had a plan, went in confidently and hard for the football and kicked winning scores against both home teams in a difficult environment for visitors. And they repeated that sort of effort later in the season when they played Essendon at the MCG.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Essendon

      Facing the very real and daunting prospect of starting the season with five straight losses, the Demons head to South Australia for the annual Gather Round, where they’ll take on the Bombers in search of their first win of the year. Who comes in, and who comes out?

        • Thanks
      • 489 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • NON-MFC: Round 05

      Gather Round is here, kicking off with a Thursday night blockbuster as Adelaide faces Geelong. The Crows will be out for redemption after a controversial loss last week. Saturday starts with the Magpies taking on the Swans. Collingwood will be eager to cement their spot in the top eight, while Sydney is hot on their heels. In the Barossa Valley, two rising sides go head-to-head in a fascinating battle to prove they're the real deal. Later, Carlton and West Coast face off at Adelaide Oval, both desperate to notch their first win of the season. The action then shifts to Norwood, where the undefeated Lions will aim to keep their streak alive against the Bulldogs. Sunday’s games begin in the Barossa with Richmond up against Fremantle. In Norwood, the Saints will be looking to take a scalp when they come up against the Giants. The round concludes with a fiery rematch of last year's semi-final, as the Hawks seek revenge for their narrow loss to Port Adelaide. Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons besides us winning?

        • Thanks
      • 190 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Geelong

      There was a time in the second quarter of the game at the Cattery on Friday afternoon when the Casey Demons threatened to take the game apart against the Cats. The Demons had been well on top early but were struggling to convert their ascendancy over the ground until Tom Fullarton’s burst of three goals in the space of eight minutes on the way to a five goal haul and his best game for the club since arriving from Brisbane at the end of 2023. He was leading, marking and otherwise giving his opponents a merry dance as Casey grabbed a three goal lead in the blink of an eye. Fullarton has now kicked ten goals in Casey’s three matches and, with Melbourne’s forward conversion woes, he is definitely in with a chance to get his first game with the club in next week’s Gather Round in Adelaide. Despite the tall forward’s efforts - he finished with 19 disposals and eight marks and had four hit outs as back up to Will Verrall in the second half - it wasn’t enough as Geelong reigned in the lead through persistent attacks and eventually clawed their way to the lead early in the last and held it till they achieved the end aim of victory.

        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Geelong

      I was disappointed to hear Goody say at his post match presser after the team’s 39 point defeat against Geelong that "we're getting high quality entry, just poor execution" because Melbourne’s problems extend far beyond that after its 0 - 4 start to the 2025 football season. There are clearly problems with poor execution, some of which were evident well before the current season and were in play when the Demons met the Cats in early May last year and beat them in a near top-of-the-table clash that saw both sides sitting comfortably in the top four after round eight. Since that game, the Demons’ performances have been positively Third World with only five wins in 19 games with a no longer majestic midfield and a dysfunctional forward line that has become too easy for opposing coaches to counter. This is an area of their game that is currently being played out as if they were all completely panic-stricken.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All