Best 44 for Collingwood

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

Today Collingwood tomorrow Essendon.

B: Maynard, Murphy, N.Daicos

HB: Quaynor, Moore, Pendlebury

C: Lipinski, De Goey, J.Daicos

HF: Sidebottom, Mihocek, McCreery

F: Elliott, McStay, Ginnivan

FOLL: Cameron, Adams, Crisp

IC: Mitchell, Noble, Howe, Cox

Reserves

B: Richards, Dean, Ryan

HB: Draper, Kelly, Ruscoe

C: Bianco, Macrae, Allan

HF: McInnes, Kreuger, Hoskin-Elliott

F: Frampton, Johnson, Hill

FOLL: Begg, Harrison, Carmichael

IC: Wilson, Murley, N\A

Collinwood also have a spot for a train on.

[whatwhat say what 23,854]

you need to start making it five on the pine these days @WERRIDEE

 

[DeeSpencer 26,675]

21 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

you need to start making it five on the pine these days @WERRIDEE

 

Time to start again with WERRIDEE Best 46.

[DeeZone 10,589]

Pies have a very good list.😪

[layzie 34,528]

The dark side, the filth, the princes of darkness, the beasts from the inner east.

Edited December 4, 2022 by layzie

[grazman 7,539]

The draw – well it’s Collonwood right so you know they’re going to get a charmed run.  They play Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Port, Essendon and Adelaide twice.   They do have six interstate trips, but one of those is for the ‘gather round’ where they play the Saints, but they do have to front up to the Crows at AO off a five day break following Anzac Day.  They do have some harder matches at the back end of the season so it will be interesting to see how they are fixtured.  Watch this space.

1. I’m expecting the Pies to slide this year, not a massive amount, I think they’ll still make the finals but won’t be a top 4 contender -so here’s why I’m expecting a side that has added to three areas (McStay, Mitchell and Hill) to slip behind where they were last year.  Firstly if you can find an article from Max Laughton on the Fox Footy site (7^th Feb) on Pythagorean prediction of wins it makes a good argument for why the Pies are unlikely to go 7 wins from 10 games decided by a goal or less this season.  Not exactly lucky last year, but not necessarily replicable either – according to the article we’re more likely to see a reversion to the mean given the same situation again and the Pies to go closer to 5&5 or maybe 3 & 7 to square the ledger.  There’s thin margins there for Craig McRae to work with based on how close a lot of their games were in 2022 and they’ll need to improve because the rest of the competition now has had a good look and worked out how they play and will have counter tactics to employ.

2.  The midfield is not as strong as it appears.  I compared each of the finalists from last year with their best 4 centre square starting combinations in terms of total number of games, Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings.  I was selective in adding Tom Mitchell for Pendlebury – Collingwood ranked 6^th in terms of total games, 7^th for Brownlow and Coaches votes and 8^th for AFL rankings.  (Melbourne by the way ranked 4^th for total games but 1^st for Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings).  It maybe that Daicos and De Goey give them some X factor in there, but in terms of midfield depth it’s lacking which is why Pendles had to roll through there far more last year than a 34 year old should.  The fact that 3 of their top 5 in their B&F are 32 and over is a concern.   Nick Daicos will obviously be a star, but it's a big load to shoulder at the moment for a guy in only his second season. 

3.  They lost Ollie Henry a player they would have ideally liked to have kept and Brodie Grundy a player they couldn’t afford to keep in the offseason.  It’s made the list substantially weaker even with the additions of McStay and Mitchell.  Moore has had an interrupted preseason due to a bone infection and De Goey decided to delay his off-season surgery until after his holiday.  Not an ideal start in terms of preparation for a list that needs a lot to go right to back up last year.  There’s a lot of pressure on Cameron to stay fit given that Mason Cox has a large question mark on his ability to be the main ruck.  Yes he gives them a tall forward option as well, but only 7 goals in 18 games last year and a career average of under 9 hitouts a game wouldn’t offer any comfort if Darcy goes down.

I like their defence, it’s unheralded and unfashionable, but it does the job, largely due to the 203cm 2020 AA defender in Darcy Moore – now their captain.  He gets good service from Murphy and Maynard and Jeremy Howe plays the intercepting role as well as anyone, Quaynor has taken his time, but has come on well.  Similarly their forward line is workmanlike with the likes of Mihocek, Elliot and now McStay.  They’ll do a power of running to make it work, but the unknowns will be where Ginnivan will be at given his indiscretion and whether De Goey can perform at a consistent level (why start now).  They have high hopes for Bobby Hill, but it would be a break out year for him if he could deliver a goal a game and a dozen possessions, something he’s never done in his 4 seasons at the Giants.

Overall I think the Pies are well coached and play aggressive fearless football, it will be interesting to see if that unravels a bit this year once sides do their homework in the offseason.  I think the last 6 in their best 22/23 is pretty weak in comparison to other sides and they need the youth to step up again for them  if they are to take the pressure of the aging Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. 

I’ve picked them to finish 7^th. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by grazman

[layzie 34,528]

17 hours ago, grazman said:

The draw – well it’s Collonwood right so you know they’re going to get a charmed run.  They play Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Port, Essendon and Adelaide twice.   They do have six interstate trips, but one of those is for the ‘gather round’ where they play the Saints, but they do have to front up to the Crows at AO off a five day break following Anzac Day.  They do have some harder matches at the back end of the season so it will be interesting to see how they are fixtured.  Watch this space.

1. I’m expecting the Pies to slide this year, not a massive amount, I think they’ll still make the finals but won’t be a top 4 contender -so here’s why I’m expecting a side that has added to three areas (McStay, Mitchell and Hill) to slip behind where they were last year.  Firstly if you can find an article from Max Laughton on the Fox Footy site (7^th Feb) on Pythagorean prediction of wins it makes a good argument for why the Pies are unlikely to go 7 wins from 10 games decided by a goal or less this season.  Not exactly lucky last year, but not necessarily replicable either – according to the article we’re more likely to see a reversion to the mean given the same situation again and the Pies to go closer to 5&5 or maybe 3 & 7 to square the ledger.  There’s thin margins there for Craig McRae to work with based on how close a lot of their games were in 2022 and they’ll need to improve because the rest of the competition now has had a good look and worked out how they play and will have counter tactics to employ.

2.  The midfield is not as strong as it appears.  I compared each of the finalists from last year with their best 4 centre square starting combinations in terms of total number of games, Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings.  I was selective in adding Tom Mitchell for Pendlebury – Collingwood ranked 6^th in terms of total games, 7^th for Brownlow and Coaches votes and 8^th for AFL rankings.  (Melbourne by the way ranked 4^th for total games but 1^st for Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings).  It maybe that Daicos and De Goey give them some X factor in there, but in terms of midfield depth it’s lacking which is why Pendles had to roll through there far more last year than a 34 year old should.  The fact that 3 of their top 5 in their B&F are 32 and over is a concern.   Nick Daicos will obviously be a star, but it's a big load to shoulder at the moment for a guy in only his second season. 

3.  They lost Ollie Henry a player they would have ideally liked to have kept and Brodie Grundy a player they couldn’t afford to keep in the offseason.  It’s made the list substantially weaker even with the additions of McStay and Mitchell.  Moore has had an interrupted preseason due to a bone infection and De Goey decided to delay his off-season surgery until after his holiday.  Not an ideal start in terms of preparation for a list that needs a lot to go right to back up last year.  There’s a lot of pressure on Cameron to stay fit given that Mason Cox has a large question mark on his ability to be the main ruck.  Yes he gives them a tall forward option as well, but only 7 goals in 18 games last year and a career average of under 9 hitouts a game wouldn’t offer any comfort if Darcy goes down.

I like their defence, it’s unheralded and unfashionable, but it does the job, largely due to the 203cm 2020 AA defender in Darcy Moore – now their captain.  He gets good service from Murphy and Maynard and Jeremy Howe plays the intercepting role as well as anyone, Quaynor has taken his time, but has come on well.  Similarly their forward line is workmanlike with the likes of Mihocek, Elliot and now McStay.  They’ll do a power of running to make it work, but the unknowns will be where Ginnivan will be at given his indiscretion and whether De Goey can perform at a consistent level (why start now).  They have high hopes for Bobby Hill, but it would be a break out year for him if he could deliver a goal a game and a dozen possessions, something he’s never done in his 4 seasons at the Giants.

Overall I think the Pies are well coached and play aggressive fearless football, it will be interesting to see if that unravels a bit this year once sides do their homework in the offseason.  I think the last 6 in their best 22/23 is pretty weak in comparison to other sides and they need the youth to step up again for them  if they are to take the pressure of the aging Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. 

I’ve picked them to finish 7^th. 

Yeah I'm with you on their midfield, don't get me wrong they have no slouches and that unit can win you some games especially when De Goey comes to play, but it's no premier midfield and I think they've been kicking the can down the road for a while there. 

I'm a big fan of their defence, it's got everything you want. Moore the key pillar, Maynard as a lock down, Qaynor and Daicos for dash. For me it's the most well rounded backline going around at the moment and with Pendles spending more time back there I'm expecting more solidarity from them this year in that area.

Forward line and ruck are the biggest questions for me, did they ride the hot hand last year? Can Elliot continue those heroics week after week? I'm just not sure.

It's a good side, they are full of confidence and may get another decent start. If they don't then it could be a real struggle to get into final 8 contention. Big rap for Mccrae, I think he's ticked all the right boxes in his short career so far. He seems to send a very clear message and wants them to trust the process yet he's also a quick operator on matchday. If things are working he doesn't mess around and will make changes, best first year coach I've seen in a long time. 

So much film on the Pies now, another year in some of those aging legs. Some hopes pinned on a few who had a purple patch or new guys. I'm thinking just in or out of the finals.

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

On 12/3/2022 at 12:54 AM, WERRIDEE said:

Today Collingwood tomorrow Essendon.

B: Maynard, Murphy, N.Daicos

HB: Quaynor, Moore, Pendlebury

C: Lipinski, De Goey, J.Daicos

HF: Sidebottom, Mihocek, McCreery

F: Elliott, McStay, Ginnivan

FOLL: Cameron, Adams, Crisp

IC: Mitchell, Noble, Howe, Cox

Reserves

B: Richards, Dean, Ryan

HB: Draper, Kelly, Ruscoe

C: Bianco, Macrae, Allan

HF: McInnes, Kreuger, Hoskin-Elliott

F: Frampton, Johnson, Hill

FOLL: Begg, Harrison, Carmichael

IC: Wilson, Murley, Steene, Markov

 

Reivsed best 44 for Collingwood

[whatwhat say what 23,854]

2 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Reivsed best 44 for Collingwood

so you removed howe but not lipinski?

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

3 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

so you removed howe but not lipinski?

Howe is on the bench.