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Top Spot Up for Grabs!

Lucifers Hero
Lucifers Hero
in AFLW Melbourne Demons

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Posted

Can the girls emulate the men and snatch top spot on the last game?  Nothing in it at this stage.

Current Ladder:

image.png.a3368c61a6ff532b172633fe15e6fa31.png

Thoughts:

  • We must win to guarantee a top 2 spot.  Lose and Brisbane, who play after us, could overtake us on %.
  • Adelaide vs Saints is at Moorabbin which is much larger than their home ground, maybe limiting their scoring ability.
  • While Casey is a ground advantage for us the conditions will make it hard for us to kick a big score.
  • The big advantage of finishing 1st is that the highest placed team in the GF gets the Home ground. 
  • Its unlikely to see the ladder positions change.
  • A top 2 spot gives us a Home prelim and a week off before that game.

Assuming both Adelaide and Melbourne win next week, top spot will come down to %.  At this stage their is nothing in it.  Then:

  • If we get top spot our prelim is vs the winner of semi final between 4 and 5, currently North and Fremantle.  Most likely Fremantle.
  • If we get 2nd spot our prelim is vs the winner of semi final between 3 and 6, currently Brisbane and Collingwood.   Most likely Brisbane

We can beat any of those teams in a prelim, especially at Casey. 

Top spot will be nice to get the Home GF (assuming we win the Prelim).  But I doubt the GF will be at Casey as not many people can fit in.  A few years ago they got 40,000+ at Adelaide Oval.  My guess is if we get there, it will be at Marvel stadium, which should suit us very nicely with the roof closed.

As Adelaide were beaten at Home by Bulldogs and North nearly beat them there today I reckon we can beat them there.

So bring it on!  And, Go Dees!!

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    I watched some of Adelaide’s match today. Not overly impressive. But that might be just in comparison to our girls last night. 

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    What a finish to the season. Anybody have an idea of what margin difference vs Crows game we'd need to better them by to take top spot? 

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    If it does come down to % then playing the day after us the Crows will know exactly what they need to do against the Saints. Both games will come down to how the two sides can limit the opposition scoring. The four goals Collingwood scored today saw Adelaide drop 20%. 

    Edited by Rab D Nesbitt

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    I'll stick my neck out and predict we finish top on percentage.

    We've had plenty of luck recently. Playing the Lions when they were coming off consecutive 4 days breaks and Freo when they were depleted definitely contributed to our wins.

    We'll beat Carlton. They've been better recently, winning their last 3 but we are a much better side. I reckon we'll beat them by 25-30 points. The conditions at Casey will hopefully be benign. If a gale is blowing it'll even up the contest and could scupper our top spot chances.

    The Crows form has tapered. They've been labored the last few weeks and aren't scoring as heavily as they were earlier in the season. The Saints have won their last 2 and almost beat the Lions on their deck recently. The Crows will win but I don;t think it'll be be a blow-out. they do play after us so have the advantage of knowing what they have to do to finish top.

    We have a much better chance of winning a GF here than inter-state so fingers crossed we can snatch top spot

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    50 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

    What a finish to the season. Anybody have an idea of what margin difference vs Crows game we'd need to better them by to take top spot? 

    Back of the envelope calculations say that ~10 extra points would have us on top, but it'll depend not just on the margin but on the scores for/against in the last round - this is more variable than going into the final round of the mens comp, because in AFLW there are less rounds and lower scores, so margins in the final round have more impact on the overall percentage.

    One thing we have in our favour is that even though St Kilda struggle to score, they have managed to be relatively solid in defence. Hopefully they come out on Sunday keen to spoil Adelaide's top spot chances.

    We definitely need some decent conditions on Saturday night at Casey.

    Edited by Rogue

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    We didn't get top spot.  But it is shaping up for an interesting finals.

    Finals:

    • Lions vs Coll.  Winner plays Demons in Prelim
    • North vs Freo.  Winner plays Crows in Prelim
    • Prelim winners play off in GF

    Assuming Lions and Freo win both Dees and Crows will have a challenging Prelim. 

    It is quite possible Freo beat Crows as they did a few weeks ago altho the Freo travel and Crows Home ground advantage + a week rest will be difficult to overcome.

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    Brisbane belted the pies in Qld a few weeks back so i expect them to win that final easy.

    The Lions in a prelim will be a very tough opponent for us. It's a 50/50 proposition notwithstanding our great home record. 

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    3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Assuming Lions and Freo win both Dees and Crows will have a challenging Prelim. 

    It is quite possible Freo beat Crows as they did a few weeks ago altho the Freo travel and Crows Home ground advantage + a week rest will be difficult to overcome.

    Round 8 Crows defeated Freo at Fremantle Oval 25 to 16.  

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    Crows got a pretty kind fixture. Played 5 of the top 6 at home. We played one at home. 

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    12 minutes ago, Its Time for Back to Back said:

    Crows got a pretty kind fixture. Played 5 of the top 6 at home. We played one at home. 

    And they are really the SA state side, since Port don't have a team yet. 

    Small wonder they have already won 3 Premierships. 

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