The Team of Variables

[Little Goffy 14,524]

The persistent, maddening theme of the Melbourne Demons' list is the sheer number of players with huge gaps between their best and worst. So many have shown superb form in glimpses, strongs of good games, or even for whole seasons, but then not taking a next step or seriously dropping away.  It has made me crazy enough to do a quick catalogue just to put it clearly in my mind so I stop thinking about it too much!  Would be interested to hear other's thoughts on the topic, and which players they think will come out at the better or worse end of their range.

Hibberd -It was just a couple of years ago he was a worthy all-Australian selection, providing great drive from defence and smart intercepting and support. 2019 saw frankly half the player of 2017.

Jetta - Was finally making the transition from being spruiked as underappreciated to being actually appreciated as a great small defender, but an injury-ruined 2019 also seemed to drain the intensity and decisiveness that were his trademark. 

Melksham - The goal assist king, his 2018 contribution to setting up scores hasn't been beaten by any player since Cyril Rioli's 2011, and he chipped in 30+ goals of his own.  One of the few players to keep plugging along respectably in 2019, he has been barely sighted this season.

May - Seven marks a game and seven intercepts a game at his best.  At his current output it'll take him two more games to reach that tally for either. He's been so uninvolved he hasn't even given away or received a single free kick in 2020!

Vandenberg - It is a widely held opinion that Vandenberg brings something (a form of Schwerpunkt?) that lifts the team around him.  Unfortunately for long periods he hasn't had a foot capable of lifting the Vandenberg around it. It is anyone's guess what we will see when he does become available.

T McDonald - Another player who this season has produced, literally, not figuratively, half the numbers of his best season. Nil impact from a player who once clunked 134 marks, laid 50 tackles from CHF, provided chop-outs in the ruck AND kicked a superbly accurate 53.20 in a season. What the hell?

Bennell - At least with the comeback man we can only see the upside.  Could be crucial A-grade silk, but in nine seasons three have been injury interrupted and four simply wiped out.

Hannan - His mid-2018 best was as exciting at Fritsch's late 2019.  Didn't look anywhere near as creative and dangerous on the path back from injury in 2019.  Has a lot of believers but hasn't been seen yet in 2020.

Viney - absolute midfield gun bringing crucial hardness... or too slow with an unreliable thoughtless kick, keeping better players out of their best positions. And that difference of opinion has been held by people watching the same game!  Thankfully the valuable Viney appears to be back in 2020 but the uncertainty lingers.

Hunt - A mystery wrapped in an enigma tied together with a headband.  If you took his first couple of seasons as a dashing flanker/wing with long runs and long kicks and compared them to his three-goal game almost entirely up forward against Carlton, you would not think even for a moment it was the same player.  We don't even know if he was very good or just fortunate, he's that confusing.

Petracca - I believe.  'Pre-body-transformation Petracca' was actually rivaling some of the most most lauded forwards-who-go-to-midfield such as De Goey.  The New Improved Petracca is doing every thing he did before plus 30% more!  In shortened quarters!  For once we are talking about variability between good and a level of play that requires caps lock on to describe.  Having said that, it is still a big difference and still a part of why Melbourne's 2020 destiny is so impossible to anticipate.

Brayshaw - I want to believe.  Where Petracca's numbers and impact have gone up 30% from his baseline, Brayshaw's numbers and impact have gone backwards by about the same amount since his impressive peak in 2018. Are we talking about a tough inside midfielder with outstanding capacity to think a step ahead without losing concentration on the moment he's in, or are we talking about a kind-of-adequate mid picked last being the 'real guns' and who is on the field mostly because the coach thinks Harmes can be worked into a really effective half-back?

Neal-Bullen - a busy pest of a pressure forward and general runner who might not make perfect opportunities, but does make extra opportunities and helps disrupt the fast counter-attacks that mess with our game plan.  Or,  1/4 of that and 3/4 of mostly ineffective running around, as seen against the Blues.

Smith - It's hard to know what you'll get from someone who has been so damn unlucky with injury.  Two quotes sum it up - "Pre-season bolter and Melbourne rookie defender Joel Smith will make his debut against St Kilda." and "Joel Smith may have only played 15 minutes in his debut match against St Kilda in round one, but..."

Lever - Another where the numbers, taken generally, tell a fair story.  Currently producing almost exactly half of what he did in his final season at the Crows. Coincidentally, he has also yet to play even half of any given season for the Demons.  The upside is of course what a solid block of games could restore.

Fristsch - His last eight or so games of 2019 were as good as any produced by a mid-sized forward in recent memory. Against Carlton he looked massive early and even after fading he still managed 6 shots on goal for the game... for 1.4 and one out on the full. Is he a top-5 player from his draft or is he an undersized and inaccurate full forward who flashes in and out of game?

Weideman - has had just a couple of good games, including of course THAT final where he did as much as anyone could possibly expect of a very young tall forward.  But those few games look like the icing on a cake made of [blank] with a base of [blank] - a fairly even split of ordinary and very ordinary.  But if the 'super-Weid' is what emerges from the shutdown then our forward line is a whole different proposition.

Then of course we've got all those kids who, naturally, could be a whole lot or very little. 

But SEVENTEEN players with really noticeable variability in their contribution is more than enough to drive anyone mad.  Especially when so many of them the variability includes a low end that is questionably AFL standard.

[Satyriconhome 10,871]

17 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

The persistent, maddening theme of the Melbourne Demons' list is the sheer number of players with huge gaps between their best and worst. So many have shown superb form in glimpses, strongs of good games, or even for whole seasons, but then not taking a next step or seriously dropping away.  It has made me crazy enough to do a quick catalogue just to put it clearly in my mind so I stop thinking about it too much!  Would be interested to hear other's thoughts on the topic, and which players they think will come out at the better or worse end of their range.

Hibberd -It was just a couple of years ago he was a worthy all-Australian selection, providing great drive from defence and smart intercepting and support. 2019 saw frankly half the player of 2017.

Jetta - Was finally making the transition from being spruiked as underappreciated to being actually appreciated as a great small defender, but an injury-ruined 2019 also seemed to drain the intensity and decisiveness that were his trademark. 

Melksham - The goal assist king, his 2018 contribution to setting up scores hasn't been beaten by any player since Cyril Rioli's 2011, and he chipped in 30+ goals of his own.  One of the few players to keep plugging along respectably in 2019, he has been barely sighted this season.

May - Seven marks a game and seven intercepts a game at his best.  At his current output it'll take him two more games to reach that tally for either. He's been so uninvolved he hasn't even given away or received a single free kick in 2020!

Vandenberg - It is a widely held opinion that Vandenberg brings something (a form of Schwerpunkt?) that lifts the team around him.  Unfortunately for long periods he hasn't had a foot capable of lifting the Vandenberg around it. It is anyone's guess what we will see when he does become available.

T McDonald - Another player who this season has produced, literally, not figuratively, half the numbers of his best season. Nil impact from a player who once clunked 134 marks, laid 50 tackles from CHF, provided chop-outs in the ruck AND kicked a superbly accurate 53.20 in a season. What the hell?

Bennell - At least with the comeback man we can only see the upside.  Could be crucial A-grade silk, but in nine seasons three have been injury interrupted and four simply wiped out.

Hannan - His mid-2018 best was as exciting at Fritsch's late 2019.  Didn't look anywhere near as creative and dangerous on the path back from injury in 2019.  Has a lot of believers but hasn't been seen yet in 2020.

Viney - absolute midfield gun bringing crucial hardness... or too slow with an unreliable thoughtless kick, keeping better players out of their best positions. And that difference of opinion has been held by people watching the same game!  Thankfully the valuable Viney appears to be back in 2020 but the uncertainty lingers.

Hunt - A mystery wrapped in an enigma tied together with a headband.  If you took his first couple of seasons as a dashing flanker/wing with long runs and long kicks and compared them to his three-goal game almost entirely up forward against Carlton, you would not think even for a moment it was the same player.  We don't even know if he was very good or just fortunate, he's that confusing.

Petracca - I believe.  'Pre-body-transformation Petracca' was actually rivaling some of the most most lauded forwards-who-go-to-midfield such as De Goey.  The New Improved Petracca is doing every thing he did before plus 30% more!  In shortened quarters!  For once we are talking about variability between good and a level of play that requires caps lock on to describe.  Having said that, it is still a big difference and still a part of why Melbourne's 2020 destiny is so impossible to anticipate.

Brayshaw - I want to believe.  Where Petracca's numbers and impact have gone up 30% from his baseline, Brayshaw's numbers and impact have gone backwards by about the same amount since his impressive peak in 2018. Are we talking about a tough inside midfielder with outstanding capacity to think a step ahead without losing concentration on the moment he's in, or are we talking about a kind-of-adequate mid picked last being the 'real guns' and who is on the field mostly because the coach thinks Harmes can be worked into a really effective half-back?

Neal-Bullen - a busy pest of a pressure forward and general runner who might not make perfect opportunities, but does make extra opportunities and helps disrupt the fast counter-attacks that mess with our game plan.  Or,  1/4 of that and 3/4 of mostly ineffective running around, as seen against the Blues.

Smith - It's hard to know what you'll get from someone who has been so damn unlucky with injury.  Two quotes sum it up - "Pre-season bolter and Melbourne rookie defender Joel Smith will make his debut against St Kilda." and "Joel Smith may have only played 15 minutes in his debut match against St Kilda in round one, but..."

Lever - Another where the numbers, taken generally, tell a fair story.  Currently producing almost exactly half of what he did in his final season at the Crows. Coincidentally, he has also yet to play even half of any given season for the Demons.  The upside is of course what a solid block of games could restore.

Fristsch - His last eight or so games of 2019 were as good as any produced by a mid-sized forward in recent memory. Against Carlton he looked massive early and even after fading he still managed 6 shots on goal for the game... for 1.4 and one out on the full. Is he a top-5 player from his draft or is he an undersized and inaccurate full forward who flashes in and out of game?

Weideman - has had just a couple of good games, including of course THAT final where he did as much as anyone could possibly expect of a very young tall forward.  But those few games look like the icing on a cake made of [blank] with a base of [blank] - a fairly even split of ordinary and very ordinary.  But if the 'super-Weid' is what emerges from the shutdown then our forward line is a whole different proposition.

Then of course we've got all those kids who, naturally, could be a whole lot or very little. 

But SEVENTEEN players with really noticeable variability in their contribution is more than enough to drive anyone mad.  Especially when so many of them the variability includes a low end that is questionably AFL standard.

What a great assessment after 2 games with nearly three months between them

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

Agree with the premise - it's been a theme for decades. Not sure Viney belongs on that list though - he's finished top 2 in our B&F 4 times. He's as consistent as they come, and anyone that can't see his value (despite his obvious limitations) is a nuffie. 

[Dame Gaga 2,453]

About Brayshaw: I believe the concussions he has suffered in the past may have affected him. There are ample medical research results published about the effects of even one knock to a person's head, let alone multiple hits, as can happen to sports players. People who suffer concussion often do not recover quickly and can continue to have lasting effects on their brains. 

According to Dr. Maryse Lassonde , a neuropsychologist who undertook research on the long term effects concussion can have on athletes in Montreal, even when the symptoms of a concussion appear to have gone, the brain is still not 100 per cent normal. Results of visual and auditory tests, and tests of brain chemistry, of athletes who had suffered from concussion, showed there is abnormal brain activity for years after a concussion, as well as partial wasting away of the motor pathways, which can lead to significant attention problems. "This may also lead to motor problems in young athletes."

Other doctors and researchers talk about multiple concussions causing long lasting symptoms such as "foggy thinking", anxiety, depression, feeling overwhelmed, memory problems, difficulty concentrating, low concentration, on top of the physical effects; headaches, fatigue, sleep disturbance, pressure in the head, dizziness, nausea etc.

Perhaps Angus has been affected more than any of us know? I hope he improves in his health most of all. To get back to his best football would be a bonus for this fine young man.

[Whispering_Jack 30,036]

There’s definitely something in this Little Goffy. The inconsistency from game to game, within the course of a game and from so many players is a real puzzle. It can’t just be the change to a 666 structure or the fact that other coaches have worked us out. Hopefully, our coaches will work it out and, as the great John Kennedy put it, do something!

[Lord Nev 13,512]

19 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

The persistent, maddening theme of the Melbourne Demons' list is the sheer number of players with huge gaps between their best and worst. So many have shown superb form in glimpses, strongs of good games, or even for whole seasons, but then not taking a next step or seriously dropping away.  It has made me crazy enough to do a quick catalogue just to put it clearly in my mind so I stop thinking about it too much!  Would be interested to hear other's thoughts on the topic, and which players they think will come out at the better or worse end of their range.

Appreciate the amount of work you've put in here mate.

From that list, a common theme I'm noticing is interrupted careers. Whether it's injury, new players or changed/undefined roles, a lot of the players listed haven't had much continuity.

For mine, I can see May and Lever being the big movers upwards. Playing together, heck playing at all, will see them gel with each other and get used to what the players up the ground are supposed to do. I highly rate both and hope that once we settle the backline and crack the whip on the mids with their running a bit more we might see a truly elite back half.

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

we're consistently inconsistent

[Little Goffy 14,524]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Appreciate the amount of work you've put in here mate.

From that list, a common theme I'm noticing is interrupted careers. Whether it's injury, new players or changed/undefined roles, a lot of the players listed haven't had much continuity.

For mine, I can see May and Lever being the big movers upwards. Playing together, heck playing at all, will see them gel with each other and get used to what the players up the ground are supposed to do. I highly rate both and hope that once we settle the backline and crack the whip on the mids with their running a bit more we might see a truly elite back half.

Absolutely. I actually see the situation as one where with a bit of confidence and stability we could see many,  most, even (gasp) all of those players lift back to their upper level performances, which would be an incredible near-unstoppable team.

 

1 hour ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

we're consistently inconsistent

You just made me have a vision of the team of the second half of Daniher's time at the club, except without chronic injuries and individual fluctuations in form.  Imagine if they had all been fit and in best form at the same time, even for one season. Even for the 'right' half of a season.  I guess that's the story of the Dogs of 2016.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

13 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

we're consistently inconsistent

At least we can hang our hat on that WW