A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,903]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

El Magnifico is a good horse, no doubt about it. But why is it racing at Flemington against horses of this grade? Nature Strip is heading for a Grp 1 career.

The connections possibly believe they've got an above average horse and wanted to test it against good company early?

It's going to win some races but maybe not against the likes of Nature Strip - the winner was ultra-impressive.  The 2nd horse was a fair way behind but careering away from 3rd.  That often makes the winner stand out even more. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

The connections possibly believe they've got an above average horse and wanted to test it against good company early?

It's going to win some races but maybe not against the likes of Nature Strip - the winner was ultra-impressive.  The 2nd horse was a fair way behind but careering away from 3rd.  That often makes the winner stand out even more. 

Well its just missed the course record by 0.11 on a soft track! On that form El Mag is a gun.

[Macca 16,903]

James Jordan's best bet ...

Morphettville  Race 5  No.10  White Kaps $4.00 (boosted)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Qzi Choice thought he was Regal Roller! Nice try and looked the winner till the 100m. Follow.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

We almost had the tri, at least I thought I did until Shillelagh came from the clouds. Very close today fellas. 

[Macca 16,903]

Just now, Dee Zephyr said:

We almost had the tri, at least I thought I did until Shillelagh came from the clouds. Very close today fellas. 

Yeah DZ we had 1st,  3rd,  4th & 5th (Daysee Doom came 5th)

My horse Champagne Cuddles just didn't want to know about it today ... it was only her 4th run this preparation but it was one run too many by the looks of it. 

Close again but they're hard to get with these good betting races ... good dividends are on offer so if you do get the right combo,  you win well.   3.5k for the First4 is a more than healthy outcome for those who had it.  The trifecta dividend as well,  all things considered.

Your pick (Prompt Response) was ideally drawn and the jockey rode it a treat.  It looked the winner rounding the turn.  Top effort. 

Ah well, it's onto Royal Ascot for me now. 

[Macca 16,903]

Trifecta Strike Rate

2 from 11  < $168.90 >

Best Bet Strike Rate

67:  28 - 14 - 4

Australian Group and Listed Races

 

Just a reminder that the Final day of the Royal Ascot Carnival is on later tonight with the headlining race being the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes featuring Redkirk Warrior & Merchant Navy.  

The meeting is on the free-to-air channel with the feature event to be run at 1.20am.  

Edited June 23, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,903]

5 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well its just missed the course record by 0.11 on a soft track! On that form El Mag is a gun.

It was some sort of run by Nature Strip ... one for the black book Wadda.  The horse has won at the Valley,  Sandown & Flemington in 8 starts after winning on debut at Mornington so it's not just a horse that runs well down the straight.  Could be anything.

The sprint races in the Spring are going to be chock-full of talent ... there are still 7 or 8 slots open for the Everest with any number of worthy candidates available - including Nature Strip who is soon to be a 4 year old. 

[binman 42,606]

6 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

We almost had the tri, at least I thought I did until Shillelagh came from the clouds. Very close today fellas. 

Frustrating. And a big dose of punters lament.

I was going back and forth between Shillelagh and Savanna Amour. Almost went with Shillelagh as it rated higher 3 points higher than Savanna Amour but its form has been average and has a poor strike rate so went the other way,

If i win Tatts i'm going to buy a horse and call it Punter's lament.

[binman 42,606]

Speaking of Punter's lament i backed Doggies to win. Ouch

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

Speaking of Punter's lament i backed Doggies to win. Ouch

That bet should not have lost binman. The close misses are piling up this weekend. Unlucky mate.

[Macca 16,903]

I still reckon these wide-open Group 1's are the best trifecta races ... huge pools and very rarely do you see non-group type horses getting into the finish.  There is a definite science to sorting out the better chances and I'm positive our luck will change down the track. 

We've gone close nearly every time bar once and that strike rate in terms of getting so close is way better than when I do them on my own ... so the 4 sets of eyes and expertise is valuable.  We just need a bit of luck.

 

[Macca 16,903]

10 minutes before they jump and the tote odds are interesting for Redkirk Warrior - $2.40 ($1.04 place) yet you can get $5.50 ($1.80 place) on fixed odds.  I suppose many still just bet on the tote out of habit.  

Pools are very low too although that might change when we get closer to jump time.  

[Macca 16,903]

And Merchant Navy wins it for Australia!~ ... and I got the trifecta!  Win/win.  You little beauty!

Redkirk was a little disappointing but we got the win.  The favourite 'Harry Angel' played up in the stalls something chronic,  missed the start but was a beaten horse before they jumped. 

But the story is about Merchant Navy the new wonder horse.  Fought hard to the line with enormous spirit to overcome the French dasher 'City Light'.  Aiden O'Brien (the horse-whisperer) does it again. 

Here's the replay of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes ...

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

6 hours ago, Macca said:

And Merchant Navy wins it for Australia!~ ... and I got the trifecta!  Win/win.  You little beauty!

Redkirk was a little disappointing but we got the win.  The favourite 'Harry Angel' played up in the stalls something chronic,  missed the start but was a beaten horse before they jumped. 

But the story is about Merchant Navy the new wonder horse.  Fought hard to the line with enormous spirit to overcome the French dasher 'City Light'.  Aiden O'Brien (the horse-whisperer) does it again. 

Here's the replay of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes ...

 

 

 

Well done Macca.

Phew, that was a tight finish. The caller thought ‘ City Light’ nosed out ‘Merchant Navy’.

Thanks for posting the replay. Nice trifecta divvy on the Vic tote. 

[Macca 16,903]

4 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Well done Macca.

Phew, that was a tight finish. The caller thought ‘ City Light’ nosed out ‘Merchant Navy’.

Thanks for posting the replay. Nice trifecta divvy on the Vic tote. 

Pity it wasn't 100% or more but I never aim that way DZ considering the way I bet ... 33% - 50% will do though and I look upon the exercise as a percentage play.  Gone back to boxing the 5 too.  A tried & true method.

Last night the Aussie punters were ignoring City Light & Bound for Nowhere in the Diamond Jubilee - at least on the win tote odds ... that transcends into the trifectas.  When that loophole appears there's a chance to cash in. 

The punters in England were ignoring the French dasher 'City Light' as well - again,  that transcends into the punters here ignoring the horse.  It nearly won the race. 

It happens a lot in Australian racing too - especially in the big Group 1 races - really good horses get ignored (Shoals,  Santa Ana Lane etc)

BM made an excellent point about the horse ratings with regards to yesterdays Tiara ... and the ratings came through with the first 4 across the line.  Form is one aspect but class is another. 

Anyway,  here's some further news on the grand victory by the Aussie raider ...

Merchant Navy prevails in dramatic Diamond Jubilee Stakes

[Macca 16,903]

Here's a link that details all 73 Group 1 winners for the season ...

A breakdown of Group 1 results in 2017-18 by distance/track conditions

Some additional information with regards to the winners ...

 

Horses

Winx tops the pile of the 10 horses to win multiple Group 1s in Australia this season.

6 - Winx

3 - Trapeze Artist, Happy Clapper, Santa Ana Lane, Shoals

2 - Ace High, Tosen Stardom, Redkirk Warrior, Gailo Chop, Alizee

 

Trainers

Some 27 stables won Group 1s in Australia this season - 13 with multiples.

13 - Chris Waller

9 - Darren Weir

6 - Anthony Freedman

5 - David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig, James Cummings

4 - Mick Price

3 - Patrick Webster, Gerald Ryan, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

2 - Aaron Purcell, David Payne, Peter and Paul Snowden, Ben Smith

1 - Peter Gelagotis, Kerry Parker, Graeme Begg, Liam Howley, Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes, Ron Quinton, Lloyd Kennewell, Alan Mathews, Rhys Radford, Joseph O'Brien, Tony McEvoy, Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman, Robert Hickmott, Gary Portelli

 

Jockeys

Some 30 jockeys won Group 1s in Australia this season - 15 of them winning multiple times at the top level.

9 - Hugh Bowman

5 - Damian Lane, Mark Zahra, Kerrin McEvoy, Blake Shinn

4 - Craig Williams

3 - Glyn Schofield, Michael Dee, Michael Walker, Tim Clark

2 - Dean Yendall, Ben Melham, Regan Bayliss, Damien Oliver

1 - Luke Nolen, Luke Currie, Josh Parr, Corey Brown, Stephen Baster, Craig Staples, Patrick Carbery, Joe Bowditch, Andrew Adkins, Brenton Avdulla, Zac Purton, Harry Coffey, Damian Browne, Cory Parish, Jordan Childs

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,903]

The following link will take you to a replay of the Group 1 Tatts Tiara from Saturday

And the video below features Hugh Bowman riding in the big Group 1 over 2200m from Japan run on Sunday.  They certainly like their fast tracks over there - bit tough on the horses though. 

 

 

[Macca 16,903]

While we're having a break I'll continue to post up some links to some interesting betting races ... The Caloundra Cup sees 'Tradesman' meet up with his more recent rivals from the O'Shea Stakes,  Ipswich Cup & the Tattersalls Cup whilst over in the west 'Material Man & Pounamu meet up again and should fight out the finish in the Strickland Stakes. 

And it's Irish Derby time with Aiden O'Brien dominating the race again with 6 runners including 3 of the top 5 fancies ... 'Saxon Warrior' & 'Dee Ex Bee' appear to be the obvious 2 standouts but 'Kew Gardens' looms as a bit of a danger. 

There's a bit of talk that a couple/few from this race (the Irish Derby) might head to Melbourne in the Spring for the cups ... something about a weights advantage under handicap conditions for well-performed Northern Hemisphere 3 year old's.

Sunshine Coast  Caloundra Cup  2400m  Listed  Hcp  $175k

Belmont  Strickland Stakes  2000m  Group 3  WFA  $150k

The Curragh  Irish Derby  2400m  Group 1  3yo  SW  $2.4Million (2.15am Sunday)

[Macca 16,903]

Best Bet ...

Rosehill  Race 6 No.2  Sayed  ($3.40) ... all the Sky racing team like the horses chances as well. 

The horse has a very good strike rate on a wet track and the 2400m suits perfectly as well ... a small field and the horse is well drawn to get some good cover up front behind Harper's Choice and/or Plymouth Road. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet.

Sunshine Coast:

Race 7 Number 2 The Bostonian $3.40

Terrific win last week when leading all the way. On a day when they were reeling the leaders in quickly I thought the win was quite impressive. Has won at Caloundra previously and the trainer  believes the backup won’t be an issue. 

Also, a couple of work colleagues have a small share in a horse called Captain Harry. 

He’s going around in Race 7 at Caulfield. The fellas are excited as it’s the horse’s first city grade run. It had a midweek run at Sandown a few starts back but nothing beats a Saturday in town. It’s racing well of late in the lower grades and you never know. It’s around the $10 mark. By no means is this a tip, only an added interest. The good thing about this horse is the fact it’s still a colt. Hopefully they can get lucky and win a couple of decent races.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Caulfield:

Race 7 No 3 Usain Bowler TAB  $4.40 .......I heard it on the radio as a certainty.

Disclaimer: (There is only 1 DK Wier runner in this race)

Edited June 29, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

40 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bet:

Caulfield:

Race 7 No 3 Usain Bowler TAB  $4.40 .......I heard it on the radio as a certainty.

Disclaimer: (There is only 1 DK Wier runner in this race)

Haha, the Weir runner belongs to a couple of blokes from work. Captain Harry Wadda. I prefer yours though. Nice pick!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Haha, the Weir runner belongs to a couple of blokes from work. Captain Harry Wadda. I prefer yours though. Nice pick!

haha...lets buy some shares in it and call it Captain Jack !

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bets:

Rosehill: Race 6 No 2 Sayed  $3.40

Sunshine Coast: Race 7 Number 2 The Bostonian  $3.40

Caulfield: Race 7 No 3 Usain Bowler  $4.40

This weeks lucky numbers will net you a lazy $51.00 (approx) for your lazy $1.00 outlay, if they happen to win !  

Good luck punters !

Edited June 29, 2018 by Wadda We Sing