NFL

[Macca 17,007]

Nice win by the Vikings yesterday but it was no real surprise. Washington have underachieved this season but so have the Vikings (both teams made the playoffs last year) Ponder had a good game after a scratchy start and AP is getting back to his best form. Cassel did ok when he replaced Ponder (they're saying that the injury is not a major one - he may be back next week)

As an aside, the Packers will almost certainly need Minnesota's help in order to have any chance of make the playoffs. As for the Packers ...

They might be having a look at Matt Flynn but it's doubtful it would make much difference between Flynn, Wallace, Vince Young or any other back-up QB who is not already at another team. You're effectively replacing one of the League's best with another QB who can't even get a back-up role at 31 of the other teams. In other words bringing in a QB ranked in the 70's or worse isn't going to help much (especially in the way Green Bay are set up and with all the other injury concerns)

Rodgers just can't be replaced - it's as simple as that.

As for having a QB with the team since before the start of the season, they did have Vince Young in that role but there were most probably some major issues with him as well. Besides all that, he's not that good a player.

Most of the teams that the Packers are up against in the next 6 weeks have underachieved to varying degrees this season. These teams are almost sure to want to notch up some wins in the last half of the season. Green Bay's improved running game is all that needs to be curtailed in all reality (Lacy is no AP!)

Can't see Rodgers returning until at least week 14 (more likely week 16) so it's going to be a colossal ask to win enough games without him. This is apart from any replacement back-up QB having any real effective targets - apart from Nelson. Even with Rodgers playing, the lack of effective targets was always going to be an issue going forward. I suppose there's always hope

Anyway ... here's Bill Simmons column from 'Grantland' ... The 18 in Limbo

[cowboy_from_hell 2,390]

Nice win by the Vikings yesterday but it was no real surprise. Washington have underachieved this season but so have the Vikings (both teams made the playoffs last year) Ponder had a good game after a scratchy start and AP is getting back to his best form. Cassel did ok when he replaced Ponder (they're saying that the injury is not a major one - he may be back next week)

As an aside, the Packers will almost certainly need Minnesota's help in order to have any chance of make the playoffs. As for the Packers ...

They might be having a look at Matt Flynn but it's doubtful it would make much difference between Flynn, Wallace, Vince Young or any other back-up QB who is not already at another team. You're effectively replacing one of the League's best with another QB who can't even get a back-up role at 31 of the other teams. In other words bringing in a QB ranked in the 70's or worse isn't going to help much (especially in the way Green Bay are set up and with all the other injury concerns)

Rodgers just can't be replaced - it's as simple as that.

As for having a QB with the team since before the start of the season, they did have Vince Young in that role but there were most probably some major issues with him as well. Besides all that, he's not that good a player.

Most of the teams that the Packers are up against in the next 6 weeks have underachieved to varying degrees this season. These teams are almost sure to want to notch up some wins in the last half of the season. Green Bay's improved running game is all that needs to be curtailed in all reality (Lacy is no AP!)

Can't see Rodgers returning until at least week 14 (more likely week 16) so it's going to be a colossal ask to win enough games without him. This is apart from any replacement back-up QB having any real effective targets - apart from Nelson. Even with Rodgers playing, the lack of effective targets was always going to be an issue going forward. I suppose there's always hope

Anyway ... here's Bill Simmons column from 'Grantland' ... The 18 in Limbo

You sound a bit flat Macca. If Flynn is fit to me it makes sense for him to return. Only because he has played well with the Green Bay system. If his shoulder is knackered then I would suspect McCarthy would steer clear of him and stay with Wallace. If Cutler doesn't come back well then that's a start. Also Bears and Detroit both need to play the vikings at Minnesota so maybe just maybe we can help you guys out.

[Strafford 182]

Broncos

Seahawks

Lions

Really struggled to pick a third team this week, but have gone with the Lions without any real confidence. Hopefully Cutler is rusty if he starts. I couldn't go my Bengals, even though the Ravens are having a struggle, and who knows what the Dolphins will do, down two lineman and in turmoil.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

Most of the teams that the Packers are up against in the next 6 weeks have underachieved to varying degrees this season. These teams are almost sure to want to notch up some wins in the last half of the season. Green Bay's improved running game is all that needs to be curtailed in all reality (Lacy is no AP!)

Can't see Rodgers returning until at least week 14 (more likely week 16) so it's going to be a colossal ask to win enough games without him. This is apart from any replacement back-up QB having any real effective targets - apart from Nelson. Even with Rodgers playing, the lack of effective targets was always going to be an issue going forward. I suppose there's always hope

Wallace is going to have to play a lot better if you're going to make it from here. You have to bank the wins against Philly, NYG and Minnesota in the next three weeks. Can't afford to drop those. The last five games include road trips to Detroit, Dallas and Chicago, alternating with what appear easier games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home.

Bank the upcoming three with Wallace, then go 2-3 in the final five and you'll end up 10-6. Probably won't be enough for the division the way it's heading, nor for a wild card I don't think. So you have to convert at least one of those three tough road games. No Rodgers = no chance. If Rodgers makes it back in time for the Detroit game, and helps you pull our one or two of those three road games, you should be right. Sweeping Detroit will help you too.

[Strafford 182]

For the love of god Ponder! Opening drive he throws to a 2 on 1 and it's interception time. He can't throw long and I don't understand why those plays are called. On 3rd and long I'd rather see a screen pass to AP or Patterson.

In the end Ponder really made some clutch plays before he went down. Great win for your guys even though the Skins are having a hard time as well. I share your frustration with play calling

[Macca 17,007]

You sound a bit flat Macca. If Flynn is fit to me it makes sense for him to return. Only because he has played well with the Green Bay system. If his shoulder is knackered then I would suspect McCarthy would steer clear of him and stay with Wallace. If Cutler doesn't come back well then that's a start. Also Bears and Detroit both need to play the vikings at Minnesota so maybe just maybe we can help you guys out.

Oh yeah, I'm flat all right 'cfh!

I know a lot of sports fans have a built in "hope" mechanism but I don't possess one of those - prefer to face the realities. If we had Cobb, Finley, Matthews and others available then my thinking would be different. Wallace won't have a lot of quality players to throw the ball to. Regardless, Seneca doesn't possess a strong arm. He may step up and prove me wrong - ya never know!

Vegas brought the line down in the Eagles game down from -10 to -1 (and Vegas knows all!)

As for the rest of the League, there is always high interest (especially in our division) If Detroit win on Sunday then they'll have a reasonable advantage - they would then face a Packers team without Rodgers in week 13 (in all probability) whilst the Bears might have to face the Packers with Rodgers in week 17. And both those teams have to visit Minnesota (the Vikes should get better as the season goes on) I reckon the Bears/Lions match-up is the game of the week in terms of consequences.

Having said all that, if the Packers beat the Eagles, I'll be a little more buoyant with regards to our playoff chances - there's a lot riding on the match as we then face the Giants in New York (better to go in there with a win behind us) By the way, I rate the Eagles more than many others might. One of a number of teams who are far more capable than they are displaying.

Just calling it as I see it, 'cfh'.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Macca

[Strafford 182]

No play caller ever says go long up the middle to 2 deep safeties.

It's Ponder's inability to either read the defense pre snap or vision to see the play.

Whatever you make of Ponder's accuracy, mobility, heart, arm strength it's his lack of vision that is his greatest undoing. Misses open receivers and then throws in to coverage.

A bloke in Denver certainly highlights what you are saying.

I probably do disagree a bit with your comment on safeties though. It was a linebacker who picked up the receivers route, which then allowed the safety to pick up the pick off a floater pass.

Which probably highlights Cowboy's point about arm strength. Guys who lack arm strength are so much easier to pick off because there is more hang time which allows safeties to either come over the top or catch up to the ball if it is thrown short. Throwing short is especially a problem, if as is probably the case a great deal with the Vikings, safeties are walking up to stop the run. Any long passes to keep the defence honest are negated if the safeties can just catch up to the ball. Gruden for the Bengals loves his hero plays. If guys are straining at the edge of their distance they just aren't going to make those pinpoint plays that take the safeties out of the game.

For example what is the point of a beautifully designed play that freezes the linebackers at the point of scrimmage and has the safeties engaged by outside runners, if the guy open on the inside has to wait for a rainmaker to come down, thus allowing the safeties to get across. It isn't a myth I have seen it Andy Dalton

[Strafford 182]

You sound a bit flat Macca. If Flynn is fit to me it makes sense for him to return. Only because he has played well with the Green Bay system. If his shoulder is knackered then I would suspect McCarthy would steer clear of him and stay with Wallace. If Cutler doesn't come back well then that's a start. Also Bears and Detroit both need to play the vikings at Minnesota so maybe just maybe we can help you guys out.

The problem I see with Flynn as well as any injury concerns, is that his confidence is probably shot. He has been beaten out a couple of times over preseasons and has been cut a few times now in a very short space of time. A number of teams also now have a very intimate knowledge of his strengths and weaknessess.

[Macca 17,007]

Wallace is going to have to play a lot better if you're going to make it from here. You have to bank the wins against Philly, NYG and Minnesota in the next three weeks. Can't afford to drop those. The last five games include road trips to Detroit, Dallas and Chicago, alternating with what appear easier games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home.

Bank the upcoming three with Wallace, then go 2-3 in the final five and you'll end up 10-6. Probably won't be enough for the division the way it's heading, nor for a wild card I don't think. So you have to convert at least one of those three tough road games. No Rodgers = no chance. If Rodgers makes it back in time for the Detroit game, and helps you pull our one or two of those three road games, you should be right. Sweeping Detroit will help you too.

I just can't see Rodgers getting back for the Detroit game (which is on Thursday the 28th Nov - 19/20 days away) It's normally at least a 6 week injury. Even if he does come back early, he might have to play differently to how he normally plays. McCarthy has a history of being conservative with regards to players coming back from injury.

Too many things would need to fall into place for an ideal outcome. But against all that, it may in fact only be a 3/4 week injury. I'm happy for my speculative opinion to be wrong.

I've known a few people who have had collarbone injuries and it's a difficult injury to get over quickly. Up until now, I'd never heard of the 3/4 week time span (in terms of recovery time) for a fractured or broken collarbone

From the man himself ...

"I do have a fractured collarbone. It's a significant injury.

We'll know more about the severity and the timetable later this week."

Edited November 9, 2013 by Macca

[titan_uranus 25,020]

I just can't see Rodgers getting back for the Detroit game (which is on Thursday the 28th Nov - 19/20 days away) It's normally at least a 6 week injury. Even if he does come back early, he might have to play differently to how he normally plays. McCarthy has a history of being conservative with regards to players coming back from injury.

Too many things would need to fall into place for an ideal outcome. But against all that, it may in fact only be a 3/4 week injury. I'm happy for my speculative opinion to be wrong.

I've known a few people who have had collarbone injuries and it's a difficult injury to get over quickly. Up until now, I'd never heard of the 3/4 week time span (in terms of recovery time) for a fractured or broken collarbone

From the man himself ...

If he can't make it back, then you absolutely have to win the next three. Get those on the board, move to 8-3, and then try your best to win one of those last three road games to help push you up.

Assuming Wallace is good enough to beat Philly, NYG and Minnesota (questionable, but we'll assume it), the game at Detroit is season-defining (for both sides).

[Macca 17,007]

If he can't make it back, then you absolutely have to win the next three. Get those on the board, move to 8-3, and then try your best to win one of those last three road games to help push you up.

Assuming Wallace is good enough to beat Philly, NYG and Minnesota (questionable, but we'll assume it), the game at Detroit is season-defining (for both sides).

Momentum is the key. Get past the Eagles and we might win all of the next 3. Lose against the Eagles and it could go the other way. Wallace is going to have to step it up and fingers crossed, that happens.

Anyway, for the neutral fan, there's a number of top match-ups in week 10. I've picked Seattle but Atlanta have got to put it together sooner or later. They can definitely win that game and if they do win, it puts the race for the NFC West and the Conference up for grabs.

I'm expecting the Saints to defeat Dallas and the 49ers to beat the Panthers this week, so that could leave all 3 teams (New Orleans, 49ers and Seattle) with 2 losses each (overall) The subsequent games involving 49ers @ New Orleans (week 11), New Orleans @ Seattle (week 13) and Seattle @ 49ers (week 14) would then all take on even greater importance.

San Diego might be on their "win" week and if they got up against Denver, the Chiefs would then have a 2 game cushion in the AFC West. Cinci have a chance to "virtually" eliminate the Ravens but it's the Lions @ Chicago game which has the most interest for me (apart from the Packers game)

... week 10 games

[titan_uranus 25,020]

Momentum is the key. Get past the Eagles and we might win all of the next 3. Lose against the Eagles and it could go the other way. Wallace is going to have to step it up and fingers crossed, that happens.

Anyway, for the neutral fan, there's a number of top match-ups in week 10. I've picked Seattle but Atlanta have got to put it together sooner or later. They can definitely win that game and if they do win, it puts the race for the NFC West and the Conference up for grabs.

I'm expecting the Saints to defeat Dallas and the 49ers to beat the Panthers this week, so that could leave all 3 teams (New Orleans, 49ers and Seattle) with 2 losses each (overall) The subsequent games involving 49ers @ New Orleans (week 11), New Orleans @ Seattle (week 13) and Seattle @ 49ers (week 14) would then all take on even greater importance.

San Diego might be on their "win" week and if they got up against Denver, the Chiefs would then have a 2 game cushion in the AFC West. Cinci have a chance to "virtually" eliminate the Ravens but it's the Lions @ Chicago game which has the most interest for me (apart from the Packers game)

... week 10 games

Agreed, it's a huge week.

Denver are the big favourites against SD, but if you look closer, of SD's four losses, three have been right at the death, meaning they've pushed all their opponents, and have beaten the Colts. Rivers is putting up elite numbers too. Denver's only win over a team with a winning record is Dallas, and their defence has let a fair amount of points through (I mean, they conceded 19 points to Jacksonville). The offence usually gets the job done, but the last few weeks Peyton hasn't been at the same level. Denver still should win it, but I don't think it's a fait accompli.

Baltimore have to win, but I don't think they will. Same for Atlanta. I think this week is the end of the road for those two sides.

The last thing SF needs is a loss to Carolina. That would put us on the same win-loss ratio battling for the same wild card position. Beating them puts us two in front, helping us push for the first wild card on our own. I think we'll be right, our team's just coming together and our offence is really starting to click (Manningham, Crabtree coming back), plus Aldon Smith is due back some time on defence (hopefully).

[Macca 17,007]

Agreed, it's a huge week.

Denver are the big favourites against SD, but if you look closer, of SD's four losses, three have been right at the death, meaning they've pushed all their opponents, and have beaten the Colts. Rivers is putting up elite numbers too. Denver's only win over a team with a winning record is Dallas, and their defence has let a fair amount of points through (I mean, they conceded 19 points to Jacksonville). The offence usually gets the job done, but the last few weeks Peyton hasn't been at the same level. Denver still should win it, but I don't think it's a fait accompli.

Baltimore have to win, but I don't think they will. Same for Atlanta. I think this week is the end of the road for those two sides.

The last thing SF needs is a loss to Carolina. That would put us on the same win-loss ratio battling for the same wild card position. Beating them puts us two in front, helping us push for the first wild card on our own. I think we'll be right, our team's just coming together and our offence is really starting to click (Manningham, Crabtree coming back), plus Aldon Smith is due back some time on defence (hopefully).

Teams generally keep trying to win in this League even though their respective seasons might be shot - well, that's at least the case with teams that have a decent level of talent. That's why teams like Houston, the Giants, Baltimore, Atlanta and 1 or 2 others can't be written off completely and are still dangerous.

There's a little bit of tanking that goes on (Colts a couple of years ago?) but because Coaches are let go so easily (8 last year?) there's still a lot to play for. Players are in the same boat - they can get cut very quickly.

Teams can play spoiler and that's especially so when it comes to a divisional rival. Minnesota are a case in point - they would like nothing better than to help end the Packers season in week 12. And that's fair enough too - it's a ruthless sport. The Packers knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs last season and that will be well remembered at Minnesota!

Carolina have improved a fair bit but if the 49ers are on their game, San Francisco will win. Tennessee are another team that are thereabouts. They've got a few tough games but also some very winnable games and could get to 9/7 or maybe even 10/6.

[Strafford 182]

For the love of god Ponder! Opening drive he throws to a 2 on 1 and it's interception time. He can't throw long and I don't understand why those plays are called. On 3rd and long I'd rather see a screen pass to AP or Patterson.

Looking at the play again on coaches film mate, it really looks like the Skins conned Ponder into making the throw they wanted. Pre snap it would have looked to Ponder as if the middle was wide open, but Riley the middle linebacker did a great job tracking back and beating Jennings to the spot he wanted. At that point you would have needed a bullet pass to Jennings to pull the play off, rather than the floater he put up. Or perhaps a quick Megatron substitution to go up and get it

The safety made the pick, but Riley made the play work. Two thoughts probably crossed the mind of Jennings here, one being," Man I just aint as quick as I used to be, and what I wouldn't give for an Aaron bullet just about right now"

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

Bah, bloody vikes, I'm am the worst tipper ever!

Bah!

[Macca 17,007]

Bah, bloody vikes, I'm am the worst tipper ever!

Bah!

It's turned out to be one of the most difficult tipping comps in the history of tipping comps.

Urgent fine tuning is required but alas, we'll have to wait until next season for those changes to be implemented. In the meantime, it must be remembered, that any of us can still win the damn thing!

Keep plugging away 'Gorgoroth'!

[cowboy_from_hell 2,390]

Looking at the play again on coaches film mate, it really looks like the Skins conned Ponder into making the throw they wanted. Pre snap it would have looked to Ponder as if the middle was wide open, but Riley the middle linebacker did a great job tracking back and beating Jennings to the spot he wanted. At that point you would have needed a bullet pass to Jennings to pull the play off, rather than the floater he put up. Or perhaps a quick Megatron substitution to go up and get it

The safety made the pick, but Riley made the play work. Two thoughts probably crossed the mind of Jennings here, one being," Man I just aint as quick as I used to be, and what I wouldn't give for an Aaron bullet just about right now"

Jarius Wright played a few snaps as the slot receiver last year and has some pace about him. He might have more speed then Jennings. Jennings is in new territory that's for sure. I heard the commentators say in the six years he was at Green Bay he had three QB's. He has had 3 QB's in half a season at Minnesota. What frustrates me with Ponder is not his ability. He can scramble and can hit Tight Ends very well and he does have some grunt about him. It's the fact that this year coach Frazier and coordinator Musgrave have tried to turn him into a deep ball QB. He just can't do it. I understand why they would try. With AP you can play action when the box is loaded and then throw bombs to Jennings. But it hasn't worked and it has hurt Ponder's form and confidence. Having a poor defence hasn't helped either. But after all that rant we won and beat RG3 so it's not all bad. Jerome Simpson celebrated well with a 'DWI' after the game.

[Macca 17,007]

Here are the TV games again ...

Monday

5.00am Oakland (3/5) at NY Giants (2/6) (OneHD)

5.00am Cincinnati (6/3) at Baltimore (3/5) (Fox2)

8.05am Carolina (5/3) at San Francisco (6/2) (Fox2)

8.25am Denver (7/1) at San Diego (4/4) (OneHD)

12.30pm Dallas (5/4) at New Orleans (6/2) (OneHD & ESPN)

Tuesday

12.30pm Miami (4/4) at Tampa Bay (0/8) (ESPN)

[DeeSpencer 25,723]

A bloke in Denver certainly highlights what you are saying.

I probably do disagree a bit with your comment on safeties though. It was a linebacker who picked up the receivers route, which then allowed the safety to pick up the pick off a floater pass.

Which probably highlights Cowboy's point about arm strength. Guys who lack arm strength are so much easier to pick off because there is more hang time which allows safeties to either come over the top or catch up to the ball if it is thrown short. Throwing short is especially a problem, if as is probably the case a great deal with the Vikings, safeties are walking up to stop the run. Any long passes to keep the defence honest are negated if the safeties can just catch up to the ball. Gruden for the Bengals loves his hero plays. If guys are straining at the edge of their distance they just aren't going to make those pinpoint plays that take the safeties out of the game.

For example what is the point of a beautifully designed play that freezes the linebackers at the point of scrimmage and has the safeties engaged by outside runners, if the guy open on the inside has to wait for a rainmaker to come down, thus allowing the safeties to get across. It isn't a myth I have seen it Andy Dalton

I just think it's a bad pre snap read to throw in to 2 deep safties then once the play unfolds he should see the underneath coverage and be even more scared as he then can't be long or deep. Much safer to take a shot out wide or angle in at the seems between the corners and safeties that the linebackers probably wont be covering as they'll be up watching AP.

And deep balls down the middle don't test true arm strength as much as the deep darts between the seems and down the sides because the only way to catch them generally is to put air up under the ball. You see QBs throw fast and deep and over throw receivers all the time. If you've got a good receiver you are much safer to put some air under it, the proviso being the guy is double covered.

All in all it was a poor play call, poor read and poor throw and a typical Ponder mistake. But he came back an played great (Or good enough to torch Washington's rubbish defense) anyway so 1 mistake per game can be tolerated.

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

I'm really looking forward the the San Fran v panthers game.

[Strafford 182]

Good timing to have a day off and be able to watch the Bengals live....not

How bad are we playing?

[Strafford 182]

Jarius Wright played a few snaps as the slot receiver last year and has some pace about him. He might have more speed then Jennings. Jennings is in new territory that's for sure. I heard the commentators say in the six years he was at Green Bay he had three QB's. He has had 3 QB's in half a season at Minnesota. What frustrates me with Ponder is not his ability. He can scramble and can hit Tight Ends very well and he does have some grunt about him. It's the fact that this year coach Frazier and coordinator Musgrave have tried to turn him into a deep ball QB. He just can't do it. I understand why they would try. With AP you can play action when the box is loaded and then throw bombs to Jennings. But it hasn't worked and it has hurt Ponder's form and confidence. Having a poor defence hasn't helped either. But after all that rant we won and beat RG3 so it's not all bad. Jerome Simpson celebrated well with a 'DWI' after the game.

Unfortunately for all his physical talent, Jerome only has one brain cell and I'm not sure that one works all that well.

Yep Ponder does do some things well, but as you say taking the top off a defence on a regular basis isn't one of them. Not that it is a high percentage play even with the top guys, but keep em honest.

[Strafford 182]

I'm really looking forward the the San Fran v panthers game.

Should be a beauty.

[Strafford 182]

I just think it's a bad pre snap read to throw in to 2 deep safties then once the play unfolds he should see the underneath coverage and be even more scared as he then can't be long or deep. Much safer to take a shot out wide or angle in at the seems between the corners and safeties that the linebackers probably wont be covering as they'll be up watching AP

And deep balls down the middle don't test true arm strength as much as the deep darts between the seems and down the sides because the only way to catch them generally is to put air up under the ball. You see QBs throw fast and deep and over throw receivers all the time. If you've got a good receiver you are much safer to put some air under it, the proviso being the guy is double covered.

All in all it was a poor play call, poor read and poor throw and a typical Ponder mistake. But he came back an played great (Or good enough to torch Washington's rubbish defense) anyway so 1 mistake per game can be tolerated.

Mate it was a go route, so the underneath coverage shouldn't have been a factor, but as you say it was a terrible throw. A short floater that didn't give Jennings a chance even if he had beaten his man on the route which he hadn't. It was a third and 14 so AP wasn't that much of a factor and the two wideouts were bracketed by three guys each. If either safety had committed to the go route too early Ponder had an easy throw down the sideline. As it was one safety never had a play.

As I mentioned to Cowboy, pre snap the go route up the middle would have looked on. Even when he made the throw it would still have looked a goer, as you would expect your speedy receiver to blow past a linebacker, didn't happen, and it didn't matter anyway, because Ponder put up a terrible ball. The Skins dared Ponder to make the throw, because more often than not they know he can't do it.

[Strafford 182]

Man the Bengals are hard to watch at times....

Two weeks in a row they have been rubbish, but have still come back and nearly won the game...I stress the nearly.

They just keep stringing you along and just when you have given up hope they drag you back into the game thinking maybe, just maybe, they are going to win afterall and then wham, you have to wheel out the comfort food and pop in the dvd of a past superbowl win....oh wait I can't even do that.....grrrrrr.