TURN, TURN, TURN

[Demonland 70,216]

TURN, TURN, TURN by Whispering Jack

When the final siren sounds to end the Hawthorn v Melbourne game on Sunday, it's almost a certainty that the Demons will still occupy the bottom spot on the AFL ladder. The circumstances behind this sorry situation is a reflection of many things including the fact that the club has been handed a particularly tough gig in its transitional year under a new coach in Dean Bailey.

By Sunday evening Melbourne will have played an unprecedented five out of nine games against teams that occupy the top four positions and at least seven against teams in the eight. Two of those games took place outside Victoria (it would have been three but for the AFL's acceptance of the writing on the wall and its relocation of the fourth round game against North Melbourne from Carara to the MCG) and one was played at Skilled Stadium.

While the above schedule would have been problematic for the Demons in years like 2004 to 2006 when they were regular finalists, in 2008, it's nothing short of a horror programme because the team has slipped so dramatically behind the pack. Its performances to date (with the exception of one half of inspired football) have been sub standard and that the club must dramatically raise its standards in every facet of its operations - on and off the field - if it is to survive through the next decade.

Melbourne doesn't have the benefit of the free kicks meted out by the AFL to clubs like Collingwood and Essendon when the season's schedules are drawn up to help weather the storm in difficult times. Nor can it rely on the old Ian Collins philosophy that "what goes around comes around". Under the current regime, the situation won't be redressed any time soon; not even as is being mooted, if the AFL abandons its package of $6.4million in assistance set aside for 2010 to help keep struggling clubs afloat. That package is often cited as the compensation for clubs not getting the big ticket games on Friday nights and for them being consigned to the far flung reaches of the continent more often than others. The AFL seems happy to see these clubs continue to struggle and to keep both knees firmly pressing on their jugular veins.

Melbourne faces a tough future and, with two new clubs about to enter the competition, things are not going to get any easier over the coming years: the road home just keeps on getting harder to traverse. Hawthorn President Jeff Kennett claims he has the answer to Melbourne's problems – relocate to the Gold Coast. Otherwise, "I don't think Melbourne, as it is at the moment, has a long term future in this code," he told the audience at a fundraiser on Thursday.

Poor Jeff. The events of the latter part of the last century must have shaken him so badly that he has surely forgotten how quickly things can sometimes change in both politics and football. Forgotten is the way in which the party that he led lost government in the State election of 1999 or that his own club was a virtual basket case with no money in 1997. Or how, just a matter of two years ago, Melbourne 20.16.136 whipped his Hawks 9.7.61 by a margin of 75 points. Not long after that Kennett's Hawks became known as the Tasmanian Hawks and their President now has two heads. In this sport, as in politics, there a time for every purpose. Things will turn and I hope that Jeff's around when they do because we will most certainly remind him.

THE GAME Melbourne v Hawthorn at the MCG - 25 May 2008 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 74 wins Hawthorn 74 wins

At the G Melbourne 36 wins Hawthorn 34 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 5 wins Hawthorn 7 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 Clarkson 1

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 3.oopm (on delay)

RADIO K-Rock Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $8.00 Hawthorn to win $1.05

LAST TIME THEY MET Hawthorn 23.16.154 defeated Melbourne 6.14.50 at the MCG in Round 1, 2008.

Chance Bateman and Lance Franklin carved up a pathetic Demon side, ate them and spat them out as feed for the vultures circling the G. Hardly a single Demon could hold his head up high but Brad Green went forward to kick a couple and Robbo booted three in junk time not so much to make things look respectable but to prevent the score line from looking farcical. Nathan Jones and Paul Johnson tried hard. That's about it!

FEATURES

• Indigenous Round
• Tribute to David Neitz

Both events will be covered in our wrap up of the weekend.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Warnock Colin Garland Daniel Bell

Half backs Clint Bartram Paul Johnson Cameron Bruce

Centreline Brad Green Brock McLean Matthew Bate

Half forwards Cale Morton Russell Robertson Brent Moloney

Forwards Aaron Davey Brad Miller Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Simon Buckley James Frawley Ben Holland Shane Valenti

Emergencies Jace Bode Chris Johnson Adem Yze

In Ben Holland

Out Mark Jamar (omitted)

HAWTHORNTASMANIAN HAWKS

Backs Campbell Brown Stephen Gilham Rick Ladson

Half backs Xavier Ellis Trent Croad Grant Birchall

Centreline Clinton Young Sam Mitchell Chance Bateman

Half forwards Michael Osborne Lance Franklin Josh Kennedy

Forwards Cyril Rioli Jarryd Roughead Mark Williams

Followers Robert Campbell Brad Sewell Jordan Lewis

Interchange Tim Clarke Stuart Dew Thomas Murphy Simon Taylor

Emergencies Jarryd Morton Brent Renouf Mitch Thorp

In Tim Clarke Josh Kennedy Thomas Murphy

Out Brent Guerra (hamstring) Shane Crawford (suspended) Ben McGlynn (suspended)

Field umpires James Grun Armstrong

SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

There's little use in analysing match ups and where Melbourne might win this game or who in hell is going to stop Buddy Franklin. The Demons are simply battling at this stage to be competitive every time they enter the field of battle and by my reckoning, they have been competitive for no more than between 5 and 10% of the time this year which is simply nowhere near good enough and won’t allow them a look in against the undefeated Hawks!

Mind you, last weekend wasn't all bad for the Melbourne Football Club. Sure, our boys went down to Adelaide by 76 points in what was the Crows' biggest victory ever over the Demons but we need to look at things in the overall context of the club as a whole. It's called the "bigger picture".

In this bigger picture, our alignment partner Sandringham, which also travelled interstate with nine Demon listed players, demolished the Tassie Devils in Launceston to the tune of 152 points, meaning that the net winning margin of the two teams that contained Melbourne players at the weekend was a positive 76 points and not the negative 76 point loss we took away from the City of Churches. And for these purposes I'm not taking into account the Storm or the Vixen or any other Melbourne teams.

To be sure, I'm being a little flippant but when you're down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing is going right, you need a friend to come knocking on your door – and, well … that friend is called "optimism" but even being an optimist doesn't always mean that you will get the outcome you want.

Melbourne's 76 point horror performance in Adelaide and some of the other losses suffered this year need to be looked at in the context of previous years when the team was regarded as somewhat more successful. Since Neil Craig took over at the Crows, the Demons have suffered a series of shattering defeats at AAMI Stadium - by 72 points in 2004, then 54 (in 2005) and 58 (in 2006) and their record over there against Port Adelaide is even worse!

But there is a difference between those sides and the one that represented Melbourne last week and that's in its youth. The coach made it clear to supporters very early in the piece that the club's future was with players generally in the 23 years and under group and that players could no longer rely on past deeds to win selection. Just look at the experienced players in the team that flew south to Tassie rather than west to Adelaide. They included Ben Holland, Matthew Whelan and Adem Yze while Nathan Carroll was selected as an emergency for the game in Adelaide. They would all have been assured of a game in the AFL in previous years. Now they have to prove themselves in order to get a game. Holland and Yze appear to be coming close after long stints outside the big time.

In other words, Bailey is delivering on his promise of youth which means, inter alia, that we are going to experience some inevitable short term pain but in the longer run, it should mainly bring good as young players get more and more serious game time in their legs. We have to look to the likes of most (but obviously not all) of this group - Simon Buckley, Nathan Jones, Clint Bartram, Brock McLean, Matthew Bate, James Frawley, Cale Morton, Paul Johnson, Colin Sylvia, Lynden Dunn, Ricky Petterd, Jack Grimes, Chris Johnson, Addam Maric, Colin Garland, Daniel Bell, Brent Moloney, Kyle Cheney, John Meesen, Jared Rivers, Isaac Weetra, Michael Newton, Tom McNamara, Stefan Martin, Matthew Warnock, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jace Bode and Shane Valenti - to come of age.

This is what has happened at Hawthorn over the last three or four years. Its youth has matured, the team is winning and the money is rolling in as well. Its what allows Jeff Kennett to be so smug and opinionated about an opposition club on the eve of their second meeting in two months.

But the same thing also happened at Melbourne in the past and it can happen again. It might not work out as successfully as it did for the club in the fifties or more recently for Geelong but Bailey has faced the reality and is steadfastly trying to change the team make up and the style of game it plays from its very roots.

As Melbourne meets Hawthorn again just eight games after it suffered a drubbing at the hands of the Hawks in the opening round of the season, the short term pain will continue to be felt. Youngsters lacking the strength of mature bodies and the experience of 50 to 100 games will inevitably make mistakes and turn the ball over against well drilled sides like the Hawks. They will give away more free kicks and they will do thinks that irritate supporters. Not even the optimist in me can therefore select the Demons to overturn a 104 point deficit in such a short time. What we can expect is some more promising signs than the pessimistic ones that were thrown up two months ago on the day when this long journey started. Even though it's a long road home, things are beginning, ever so slowly, to turn.

For the record, I'm tipping Hawthorn to win.