Lucifers Hero

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to stifle discussion - just that I see the question on how big a factor loading is in explaining individual game results as a lose/lose discussion - not enough data to say one way or the other. fwiw, I'm in the camp that: we and all clubs have a loading program, it can vary from player to player and it can be timed depending on the fixture (travel, days break etc) and other non game factors. And the circumstances of each game are unique. Loading could affect some games, not others. It could affect some players, not others. That it significantly and simultaneously affects every player in a string of games is a stretch for me. Consequently, imv loading isn't a major factor for the results of any particular game. So by all means, discuss it. I will stay out of it. I did enough banging-head-on-wall on this last year. I confess, I haven't followed the discussion this year - I chimed in as I was shocked to see binman posting on this in the early hours of the morning.

OMG, that would be soooo not cool! Just more head-banging-on-wall...

Tbh, just about everyone agrees there is a loading program. You summed up the area of disagreement perfectly in this line: "But of course, it is far from the only factor. And i fully concede that i might be wrong and that is not the biggest factor. But it is 100% a factor - the only real debate is how big a factor" So the scope of the discussion is your position that loading is the biggest factor whereas others say it isn't the biggest factor (re impact on our performances). It isn't possible to demonstrate that either position is right in any given game as there is no data to measure the variables. It comes down to theories and assumptions. So imv, agreement on the area of debate is a head-banging-on-wall level exercise, as it was last year as it will be next year...

The easiest way to find the 2023 posts is to scroll through the 'Activity' in your profile. Tedious but at least they are all in one place. Click on the post and it will take you to the thread in which the post appeared. And, allow me to introduce you to the 2022 version: Just click on the title and it will take you straight to last year's thread. It may take a little while to scroll through to find your posts but it sure beats using the 'search' function.

It does seem like a thesis sometimes... But hey, binman is quite passionate about it...just hope the info is electronically stored...

Crikey, binman!! What an ungodly hour to be up let alone be writing about loading!! Sincerely hope your thoughts are in a Word doc to simply 'copy/paste' relevant parts as needed for each post. It does my head in to think you type each post aftresh! I really admire your commitment to the cause.

In terms of %, to offset not playing WCE we will just have to make the most of beating: North, Hawks, Blues and Giants. Plenty of % to be gained there if we want it enough. imv the top 2 and top 4 are set - just the respective orders to be decided.

It was a bit tongue-in-cheek as most DL's fervently want Freo to keep losing. Not I...well not for the next two weeks!

This may sound sacriligeous but I want Freo to beat Ess this week and WBD next week to give us a one game break into the top 4. They are the two main contenders for 4th and both have a very easy run home. The draft picks pale in significance with a spot in the top 4 @ EOS, on the line.

I reckon the 'bring injured players back through the vfl' is old school thinking especially when a player has worked through 5+ preseasons as have Salem and Petty. Sports science has come a long way since the days when players were readied for AFL match conditions through the reserves. Very few clubs go that way these days.

My MFCSS says he will come good this week. Even if he does we will still win!!

Very true. While their gun forwards have served them well, Carlton's gun forwards aren't doing much good without the ground level support. Too easily defended.

They were very slow putting up their 'Preview' thread - only went up Monday morning but they played the previous Thursday... ...so maybe you are right about the lack of internet down there.🤨 As an aside I laughed and laughed re the comment that the noise, post goals interupts their reading/knitting time!!

Big Footy Little confidence among their fans. Lots of criticisms of Cameron. Just play the kids now, we don’t have the spark to do any damage this year that’s a given. Season gone time to get games in as Port did last year. Season buster. Hard to call in Rd 15 but here we are. Firstly, let's just admit that the season is already gone. Things become a lot clearer and less distorted this way. 😅 We lose Dangerfield, they‘ll get Oliver back-it’s how the year has gone. I expect they will be favourites, still, I quite like us for this. Comon cats -we can win this. Melbourne on an off day aren't really any better than Bulldogs on an average day though, such as when Essendon and Freo beat them by 5 goals. We beat the Dogs by a few goals under the roof so it's not irrational to think we can take Melbourne all the way with a stronger side. With Danger and Bruhn likely out, and with others no sooner to return, I don't see this being particuarly close. Reckon they'll give us a relative spanking. Come on Clayton, give your body the extra week's rest it needs. Melbourne's midfield is elite. Even if Oliver doesn't play, there is Gawn, Petracca and Brayshaw. It's hard to win games with such a second-string midfield. It will be a great win if they find a way. We’re screwed if we dont win not losing % is crucial as it will be significant in the fight for 8th spot. A player doesn't get a pass for playing poorly because they've just had a child, that's ridiculous. I think night games in Geelong in general are no good. The weather + traffic makes it worse to get out of than the mcg. Accusations of laziness or softness - against the individual or the team - are the laziest intellectually that we see here. They are hunches fuelled by resentment and, i suppose, disappointment. Do we really know that the team partied too hard, returned to training unfit, are satisfied with last year's triumph, and thus are coasting etc etc? No we don't. The fact is from time to time any team can appear to lack intensity for a quarter, half or entire game. Ive heard some Geelong people complain that the noise from the crowd after we kick a goal interupts their reading/knitting time, if we do anything well it is having a whinge. I'm really worried about this one, Melbourne's strength is their midfield, not exactly something we are excelling with at the moment, they get goals out of the midfield as well, we will need to keep a serious eye on Petracca and Fritsch who seems to get heaps of opportunities to score Don't think Melbourne are that terrifying. Good team, but they've been up and down and a little like the Dogs (in a different way), their forward line can let them down. If they had a truly gun key forward they'd be much tougher. Don't see why this isn't winnable. If Tomahawk takes a pack mark they'll need a couple of ambulances ready to transport whoever he lands on, maybe a priest as well. My Favourite Our best if good enough to win it all still - but having only being able to deliver it for about 35 secs this season wont cut it . Dees by 6-8 goals but we will probably take our foot off the accelerator and win by 3 or 4.

I think he had been in hospital for about 5 days before leaving on the Sunday - the day before he took the run at the G after the KB game. According to reports which he confirmed it was during that 5 fay hospital stay that he took it upon himself to leave.

Not sure they had much choice last year as no one knew how covid would go once Victoria was fully open. But yes, they left the middle rounds far too late.

Thanks for Selwyn's confirmation. Must admit I didn't listen to the podcast; as a rule podcasts on any site aren't my thing. Last year's fixture was transition from covid. At the time the AFL did the first 9 games no one knew what covid interruptions might transpire. Anyway, I'm very confident about a 14th flag!!

His stay in hospital was the week before the KB match.

I don't think there is another body within the AFL system. Maybe a DL lawyer knows if the Courts are an option. But I doubt the Hawks would take that option.

There were several articles posted in a thread where Oliver admitted he left hospital when he shouldn't have and said the doctors were right (paraphrasing). The articles said he went for a run but he said he went to get some clothes. Not sure which context is right...one wonders why his partner couldn't have brought a change of clothes to him. Can't remember which thread.

James Sicily’s three-match ban has been upheld.

As good as Oliver is, no one is above team rules.

Re the comments about the short break over the bye. While the number of days of our bye is the same as last year there is no comparison to 2022. In 2022 we were blindsided by the AFL's progressive fixture roll out and we had only weeks to prepare for a shorter break. The club's 2022 preseason and early season training would have assumed a 12-14 day break at the bye. It is no coincidence that this year the AFL released rounds 1 -15 straight up so all clubs could plan their training schedules to incorporate their byes. Also, last year our players got a second 4 day break away from the club and I would be surprised if they didn't again this year. I mentioned in The Run Home thread we will have plenty of opportunity to rest/manage players in the last month while other competing top 4 clubs are fighting to maintain their position. Our fitness and medical staff are much better prepared this year. Fully trust that they will have the training/managing of players right. imv we do not have a disadvantage to other clubs in terms of days break.

We will win with or without him. But he does need match time.

This is a summary of the Run Home. I've added games at a teams Home ground* as these have become really important for Crows, Lions and Cats and maybe the Marvel teams: Saints, Ess and Bulldogs. On paper Cats and Lions have a difficult draw noting the number of 8pt games. My confidence of finishing top 2 is waning as Port have strongly consolidated their position. But they have played an extra game so can still be caught. Don't like Tigers and Cats chances of making the 8 altho Tigers have the benefit of the draw. After this week all teams will have played the same number of games. A big advantage we have if we keep banking wins is to rest/manage players in the last month of the season. Other top 4 contenders will be fighting each game to keep their ladder position.