Nascent

And by moving from pick 8 to 10, if the phantom drafts are to be believed, we have essentially said thanks but no thanks to Young, Serong and Stephens. Interesting though that multiple phantom drafts have Robertson and Kemp sliding out to 15+. Perhaps if we do another split we could see one of those brought in with Pickett if we are confident he gets past Port, Hawthorn & the Doggies. Unlikely perhaps, but no one a week ago had Pickett at 10 and Day at 12. There are still so many variables to play out.

No idea. Your guess is as good as mine.

Twomey just mentioned Melbourne still potentially looking at a further split and, while nothing certain, suggested a deal could be 10 and 28 for Ports 12 and 18. Sounded more like we were canvassing our options and a deal probably unlikely at this stage.

Jackson Pickett (think it's too early but hard to ignore the smoke) Sharp (I think he will go earlier but will fit our outside run well if still on the board) My ideal scenario would be Green Stephens Rivers (or best available small forward)

It would be fitting for any player to start their career here with a 4-6 injury. If that's accurate its probably better than I was expecting.

It does in a sense, from 2pm today Twomey, Beveridge and Cleary will be doing a live stream panel discussion including interviews with draftee prospects and club officials. Here's the line up if anyone is interested in watching. Tuesday's line-up: 2.20pm - Sam Walsh (Carlton) 2.45pm - Hamish Ogilvie (Adelaide) 3.10pm - Adrian Caruso (Greater Western Sydney) 3.30pm - Cody Weightman 4pm - Kinnear Beatson (Sydney) 4.15pm - Caleb Serong and Sam Flanders 4.30pm - Stuart Dew (Gold Coast)

Interesting that he thinks a bid for Green won't come until our second pick. Edit: No Sharp in the top 30 and states Rivers is a chance to slide to our pick. Would be very happy with either of those two.

Yes that's fair.

I'll preface this by saying i'm no draft watcher/expert. Perhaps Pickett will prove to be an inspired pick, but I just can't get excited about using a top 10 pick on a small forward who averaged 7 touches/games and a goal every two games at senior SANFL level, and only 2 goals in three games at the national champs. Richmond, sans Rioli, found most of their small pressure forwards either late in the draft or in the rookie draft, and there are plenty of options in this draft for small forwards that will be their for pick 28. If Pickett slides then sure, happy to take a punt. But rolling our future first, 26 and 50 to = Pickett and whoever is left over at 28 (30-32) just doesn't feel right. It's also interesting that aside from GC with picks 1 and 2, we seem to be the only other club that is being reported as "locked in" with our picks several days out from the draft. Something doesn't smell right. Are we playing games? Are other clubs feeding false information trying to make us "reach" for a player early? Perhaps reporters are just putting 2 + 2 together and coming up with 5... Taking Pickett will most likely mean saying no to one of Serong, Kemp, Stephens, Young. I'll wait to see how the draft unfolds but I hope we know what we're doing as it feels we are prioritising needs over best available.

Pick 10 will most likely end up as pick 12 on draft night after academy bids. Likewise 28 will push out to at least 30, possibly 31 or 32 depending on bids on Maginness and Mead. A theoretical trade with Geelong will see 12 and 30 become 16 and 19 (possibly 20 for Maginness). 12, 30-32 vs 16, 19-20 Not sure which one I like best to be honest.

Bergman?

Would be pretty happy with Stephens. Knightmares latest update on his thread on Bigfooty suggests that Carlton are pretty keen on Weightman at 9. The 1st round in this draft is more fluid than any other i can remember. One of Kemp, Stephens, Young, Serong could possibly get through to our pick it seems.

That's my gut instinct as well, glad I'm not deciding and get to watch on with interest on draft night.

My only concern is that if we decide to not bid on Green and a bid for Henry doesn't come in before 7, then the top 10 is diluted with GWS and Freo getting to pick an extra two players before our pick comes around. I'm sure the club has factored this into their equation and have some certainty of what players will be available at "10". That being said its; 3, 8 and 97 or 3, 10, 28. We have improved our position significantly. Another way to look at it is we started our draft position with 3, 22, 40. That has since moved to 3, 10, 28, + Langdon. While we've lost Frost, and a Future first plus later picks we were never going to use at the draft. Essentially a 6 spot downgrade for Langdon, then a future 1st and 40 for pick 10. We only plan to use 3 picks this draft so we've done ok to improve our position.

I'm going to have a stab at the 1st round, including possible pick swaps. This is highly uneducated and largely guess work with some help from reading various phantom drafts and tidbits about who clubs are looking at. Pick swapping adds a whole new dimension and difficulty to predicting how this will unfold. Some points that affect my phantom draft order Nil bid on Green by Melbourne at 3 allowing GWS to have a selection before he gets bid on. Melbourne trading pick 9 to port for Pick 13 and 19. Carlton Bidding on Henry at pick 10 Matt Rowell (GC) Noah Anderson (GC) Luke Jackson (MELB) Lachie Ash (GWS) Tom Green (GWS - matching Sydney bid) Hayden Young (SYD) Fischer McAsey (ADE) Sam Flanders (FRE) Dylan Stephens (PORT) Liam Henry (FRE - matching Carlton bid) Caleb Serong (CAR) Deven Robertson (HAW) Brodie Kemp (MELB) Miles Bergam (WB) Josh Worrell (GEEL) Trent Bianco (GC) Will Day (PORT) Jay Rantall (GEEL) Cody Weightman (MELB) Trent Rivers (RICH)

Fair enough re delisted free agency and Bennell (although Geelong were apparently red hot on him), but facts remain that if we have the view to rookie listing both Brown and Bennell then we need to leave two spots open. If we select someone in the rookie draft prior to them training with us, then we won't have the spot for both of them and it will come down to a 50/50 between those two. I can't see that happening but who knows. I think we'll leave two spots open personally, and if one doesn't work out then we have a carry over selection for the supplemental pick either at the start of next year or mid year draft.

Perhaps, but since they've forgone the National, Rookie and Pre-season draft to train with us I doubt that's the way we would operate. Not to say we've given them guarantees of a position on the list, but if they only had a 50/50 shot I'm sure they would rather take their chances at the draft to improve the likelihood of a 2nd/3rd chance somewhere else.

Leaving rookie spots open for Bennell and Brown confirms we''ll be taking a maximum of 3 picks to the draft to make a senior list of 38 players.

If MFC have their heart set on Jackson then we're not going risk him just to keep GWS honest. It sucks they may get two top 5 picks but we're not going to compromise or alter our draft approach just to upset them.

Interesting thought. Have a gentleman's agreement to not bid on Green to allow them to have two top 5 players on the proviso they trade us a player on the cheap next year. I like it, surely they have a surplus of mids if they take Green as well.

Could come into serious calculations for us now after GWS and Adelaide have swapped picks. We place a bid and GWS no certainty to match with Jackson then becoming available to them. Will be interesting to see who we go for. I suspect we won't bid and claim Jackson, meaning GWS will be successful in securing Green + top 4 pick. Will be an interesting draft.

Interesting. GWS must know we won't be bidding on Green. Otherwise we have the potential to ruin their draft night and burn their future pick for no gain. Edit: Axis is right if Jackson is their preferred target. They've played it pretty well. Still don't want them to get both players though. I suspect we'll pick Jackson and they'll take either one of Young/Flanders/ash and Green.

Some random musings. I think we'll keep pick 3 and split pick 8. We gave up 26 and 50 and a future first. It seems the club is more than optimistic of bouncing back into finals so from their point of view we are giving up a future pick in the 11-18 range. Factor in GC concessions and at worst it is 12, and even then that is likely to be pushed back a couple spots with NGA and acadamy bids. So say its 13, 28 (26 + Henry, Maginness bid) and 53 (+Mead bid). I think we'll bid on Green and GWS will match, ruling out GWS from pushing our pick 8 back. Rough estimate: 13, 28 and 53 (2122 points) for Pick 8 (1551 points). For examples sake, say we split 8 for Geelongs 14 and 17 (moved out to 15 and 18 post Henry bid). That gives us three 1st round picks in a supposedly "even" draft. Pick 15, 18 = 2097 points. I don't really care for the points system as its only really a guide on trading and bidding for f/s selections and NGA/acadamy players, but for those of you that do concern yourself with them, this makes the trade essentially even with North. We get into to the top 6 then we actually go ahead in this scenario. The argument against splitting pick 8 usually revolves around how much we gave up to get into the top 10. I'd counter that argument with the club viewing the trade period as a collective. We have already heard Taylor on the road to the draft podcast that he has a group of 35 players of quality. So they will be weighing up the value of 3, 8 and 70ish vs 3, 15 and 18. If the do decide to split, I'm more than comfortable with it knowing the recruiters will identify players they like in this range. Rivers is one I think will be there that has good wraps on him if we decide to split and miss out on Young or Ash. Likewise, if the rate a player at pick 8 far superior to two in the teens then I'll back them to make that call as well.

I was initially against the idea of Jackson at 3, however it does make a lot of sense. He will fit our list needs perfectly by starting his career as a forward, lessening the workload of t-mac and weid, and giving Max a chop out in the ruck. In 5-6years when Maxy is slowing down and nearing the end he'll be primed to take on full ruck duties. The only query I have on him is his ability in the forward half due to his limited exposure there, but I'll trust the recruiters to make the correct call on that. Quality big men are much harder to find and with pick 8 we should still land a quality mid/back-flanker.

Could see that happening. Also wouldn't rule out Gold Coast with picks 15 and 20 and them wanting to get another early first round selection.