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Everything posted by Macca
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Yep ... the hindsight quinella - related to 'Punters lament' ha ha And McAvaney has been great today ... he's such a proffesional especially when it comes to the horses. Knows his stuff. Edit: His interview with Darren Weir was fascinating.
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The jockey on Fanatic (Walker) mentioned that he could see the leader (Al Haram) was 'hanging-off' the whole race. So the run that Fanatic got wasn't as lucky as we initially thought. Did Williams not notice the same thing or was he thinking that Fanatic was going to follow him to the outside? Ormito was a good thing beaten, all things considered. I was worried about Fanatic of course ... it ran very well to win the Sandown Cup in gutsy fashion. Ah well, it was a terrific race and we got a run for our money.
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Al Haram looked like it shifted out to give Fanatic the perfect run ... rigged! Williams did the right thing with Ormito but Fanatic covered less ground - on the fence the whole way. Close but no cigar ... money back at least. My advice was each-way so I hope you blokes got something back. I only like winners Wadda - doesn't qualify. Fanatic got the perfect run - the jockey took a chance and it paid off.
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You'd reckon there's some sort of connection. And I like the international horses competing in Australia. It gives our racing more exposure and it's a win/win in my opinion.
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Interesting article from racing.com - worth a read. Newmarket Handicap showcases training over pedigree
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If we can lift that win strike rate up to 70% - 75% we will be doing very well Wadda. The concept is well worth persevering with. And Nomothaj only cost me a very small outlay (a double with Ormito) Small field in the next one (Race 5) but they've all got a chance.
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Nomothaj never looked like it ... had no acceleration
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It might be 23: 13 - 5 - 1 Wadda because we only had 3 best bets in the first week. 19 times in the finish out of 23 is quite good ... and a 56% win rate is reasonable too.
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All I know is that it had better win! I reckon it runs a place at worst Wadda. Nomothaj is next up in the 4th ... it has qualified 15th for the Slipper ((16 will run) so Hayes setting it for this 200k 2yo Classic is smart thinking. Golden Slipper Order of Entry And if Ormito wins then we could count the win towards our 'strike-rate' but if it doesn't win, forget it. How's that for a bit each-way!
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There's the verification, that's right. Mine went through reasonably quickly but not sure on the actual time. Plus, you don't want to miss out on your bonus bet. You might want to give them a call to find out.
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You can get 7.00 at Ladbrokes Wadda (enhanced odds) In the end I went 20 each-way - couldn't resist!
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Well Wadda I've always known that we the punters are not always armed with all the information & knowledge. There's a lot that goes on unsaid. For instance, Redkirk winning the Lightning slipped under the guard ... whilst many were convinced that Redzel was a certainty, the Hayes clan had other ideas. Harlem was another in the Australian Cup ... again, David Hayes didn't seem at all surprised that his 60-1 shot had got up. Weir is a smart trainer and doesn't give much away ...if I was a W/P punter I'd be backing Ormito each-way. 5.50 the win & 2.20 the place is reasonable each-way odds. With Williams on board it should be in the finish.
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The tip is not necessarily based on previous form Wadda (although Ormito's form isn't too shabby anyway) My reading of these rare 'tips' are that the horses are set for these particular races a long time ago. That's how the previous tips have worked. In other words, it's not one persons opinion (or whim) My mate is so confident he plonked 500 on it to win (straight out) ... this mate of mine isn't short of a quid though.
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That's a tremendous 100 by de Villiers ... he's given his team a healthy lead. We'll have to work very hard to get a positive result, especially on this wicket.
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I was surprised to see Nomothaj listed to run tomorrow in the 2yo Classic but it's a Hayes horse so the motive would be easily explained. It should win easy (if it starts) I suppose 200k races aren't to be sneezed at hey Wadda. And Bruce McAvaney is back on the racing channel tomorrow covering the Morphettville races ... they're rolling out the heavy artillery! Should be a good days racing on the Public holiday. They are racing up in Ballarat too.
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Yeah ... that tip I got for the Adelaide Cup looms large (Ormito No.11) but I might multi it up with Nomothaj which may be running in the 2yo Classic (Race 4) 11-1 for the double is quite reasonable, all things considered. By the way, Ormito has come in from 8.00 to 5.50
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That's right Wadda ... but you just bet with your winnings from that Bonus bet (assuming you win!) as if you've deposited the money. As previously stated, you'll find a way to make it work for you. Anyway ... on with the racing. I watched the feature races from Canberra today but only had the 1 trifecta on the Black Opal Stakes and got money back (again!) 'Encryption' won well and might be worth following. So I've decided to have a go at that race in Sha Tin tonight (race 7) ... it's a really good betting race in terms of the probable dividend from a trifecta. I've got a mix of lightweights and a few group horses (dropping back) running for me.
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Had the same conversation ... I got a bit more than a 100 so you can push the envelope with them. I'm not trying to sell the concept to you Wadda - just relaying how it works. All the betting agencies offer the bonus bet and they'll match your initial deposit on a dollar for dollar basis ... up to ?. There are conditions but if you bet smart, you'll make it work for you. I used my bonus bet with our best bets and got 2 collects. And I'm still betting with those bonus bet winnings.
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Make sure you receive your 'Bonus Bet' Wadda ... they will match your first deposit dollar for dollar. But read up or talk to them about how the bonus bet works first.
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I also usually restrict myself to smaller fields (max 12 runners all the way down to 7 or 8 runners) ... there are a number of 'percentage plays' involved Wadda. The big exception being the big Group 1 races where the form (for me at least) is easier to make sense of. But even some smaller field races at Group level are baffling (such as the Canterbury Stakes at Randwick yesterday) Race 7 at Sha Tin today is another tough race in terms of bringing it down to 5 chances. Class 1 races at Sha Tin are very tricky races as it often boils down to the Group horses dropping back versus the real up and coming lightweights. I really much prefer to do my trifectas in the bigger races. More so the Group 1's.
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That's about it Wadda but I've been known to do quite a few trifectas in a day ... but only if I'm playing with house money. Often it's just 2 or 3 trifectas and if I bomb out early, I call it quits for the day. Not sure about using the the word 'amazing' though ... more like pot-luck most of the time! I have all my trifecta races lined up but lately I've been getting an early collect which keeps me going for the day. I usually aim for 33% - 50% of the dividend which involves a $12 or $18 outlay in a 3 - 5 - 5 combination. So when I get a trifecta I never get the full dividend. Multi's only using our best bets with a few other horses thrown in - sometimes those other horses are in the same races. Again, small outlays only.
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I wouldn't even know where to look Wadda ... all my betting is via the internet and as previously stated, I have no idea how all-in betting works as I never do it. And I'm with Ladbrokes (for now) Give them a ring (or you could try Sportsbet or any of the other betting agencies)
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I wouldn't know Wadda ... I don't do all-in betting as a general rule. And I've left the TAB behind and won't be going back! The other betting agencies have so much more to offer. I like Ladbrokes for now but am keeping my options open. I do like to look ahead at the odds though ... mainly to see which horses are what in terms of their future schedule. For instance, next weeks big Group 1 - Coolmore Classic 1500m
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After consulting the Australian Group & Listed Races I see that 'Criterion' & 'It's a Dundeel' have done the double in more recent times so it's not such a big ask for Ace High. It's had 3 runs now this campaign and looks primed. Ladbrokes are showing Ace High at 3.50 for the Rosehill Guineas & 6.00 for the Derby Wadda ... combined odds of 21.00 but I believe it's 'all-in' betting.
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Yes Wadda, Ace High is building really nicely and is obviously looking for the 2000m and further. Won't be long to wait either ... The Rosehill Guineas (2000m) is being held in 2 weeks (March 24) and then the Australian Derby (2400m) is held on April 7. Ace High showing 3.50 for the Guineas and 6.00 for the Derby.