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Everything posted by Macca
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Shields was decent but I suppose he was expendable in the end ... Lombardi: Getting rid of players key to sustained success
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What would you pay more money for to help the MFC further stabilize?
Macca replied to DaveyDee's topic in Melbourne Demons
Yep ... same person with the aid of the 'brother'. No prizes for figuring out who that is although the brother is a demon (probably?) The bottom line is that genuine supporters end up having their time wasted in a needless manner ... the subject matter can seem legit but there's a more sinister motive behind it all. The theme is always the same though ... not only are the supporters blamed for any negative outcome but those same supporters are made to feel bad about their club and are constantly told that they should be doing more. Those targeted are perhaps the disgruntled or disillusioned types ... I guess we've been a bit of an easy target Col. I've got the troll on ignore and won't read his nonsense - after all, it's just the same nonsense regurgitated. The internet can have its foibles. -
We've put our foot down twice - early then late. That's not so bad. Fumbled the ball badly in the 3rd quarter and let them back into the game. Our players need to pick the ball up cleanly especially when the other mob are rallying. Anyway, we had their measure ... a 26 point win will do (for now)
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Been a good game to watch .. fairly full-on for a practice match. We've played very well. Lever is such a good acquisition. Not only is our backline really solid but we've got plenty of depth back there (more so with a number of our onballers being able to drop back) Roos is great to listen to as well ... his knowledge is 2nd to none. Our whole defensive make-up was built from the ground up by Roos and Goodwin is following suit. There is a lot to like about this list.
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'Show a Star is also entered in the 200k Canberra Cup on Sunday ... currently showing 4.60. In fact, there are a few horses entered for both Randwick & Canberra. The Black Opal Stakes for 2yo's is now worth 300k as compared to the 2 Randwick races for 2yo's which are both also worth 300k.
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Yep ... with the odds booster I just got 47-1 for the 3 saluting. As you said Wadda, that is excellent combined odds for 3 very classy racehorses.
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With the other 2 best bets to come I will be doing the 4 trebles ... we're due for at least 3 of the 4 to get up. Just a small outlay on each but the combined odds will be a lot better this week.
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You can get $6 for Merchant Navy at Ladbrokes (enhanced odds) And I also like Gailo Chop in the Australian Cup Wadda whilst also being concerned with Redkirk Warrior and Brave Smash in the Newmarket but ... Merchant Navy (52kgs) has only ever carried 55.5kgs up to 58kgs.
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Continuing my theme of looking for the class horse which is the best horse I'll go with 'Kementari' in the Randwick Guineas as my best bet. Found a few standouts at Morphettville & Ascot but they are just good horses in inferior fields. We've got the 2 best bets so far so it's over to @Demon77 & @binman Here are the 2 best bets so far ... Flemington Race 6 No.11 Merchant Navy (5.50) Randwick Race 7 No.3 Kementari (2.90) Australian Group & Listed Races
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As you blokes are well aware, I'm a trifecta punter so it stands to reason that I find the Group 1 races to be quite tricky. So to help each other in all the exotics (Quaddies, Quinellas, First 4's, Trifecta's and the like) I thought it might be an idea to post up our top 3 in the Group 1's. However, narrowing it down to 3 possible winners is no easier than trying to find one standout! Anyway, here goes ... Newmarket Hcp ... Redkirk Warrior, Brave Smash, Merchant Navy Australian Cup ... Gailo Chop, Homesman, Almandin Canterbury Stakes ... Global Glamour, Foxplay, Clearly Innocent Randwick Guineas ... Kementari, Pierata, Ace High
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I should know already but the handicap conditions in the Newmarket Hcp means that all bar 2 horses (Redkirk Warrior 57.5kgs & Brave Smash 56.5kgs) are carrying 52.5kgs or less. I've also noted that David Hayes has mentioned a few times that in the sprint races the weight isn't such a factor (unless the difference is significant) So is 4 or 5kgs quite significant over the 1200m? You'd reckon it is and that probably explains why the top 2 horses are at each-way odds. What I do know is that there are a number of good or very good horses carrying very little weight in the race.
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Ok then ... as stated previously, I will be watching the film and I'll make my own evaluation then. Obviously the film isn't for everyone but we could be talking about any film of any genre. I'll probably like it as opposed to those who don't care for it ... I still haven't seen 'The Artist' either but that film also received mixed reviews.
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Sorted out all my trifectas tonight ... fine tuning only required. For years I did the form on a Friday night/Saturday morning armed with various publications but these days Racenet.com does the job. Race 6 at Randwick (Canterbury Stakes - Group 1) was a toughie even though there are only 9 runners ... I could make a case for 8 of the 9 winning. In the end I had to take a few educated guesses. The trifecta & first 4 could pay well in that race, all things considered.
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lol ... I feel the same way about Redkirk Warrior - Ladbrokes is offering $8 but I was thinking of using the horse as my best bet. May still do of course and if so, I can see that 4 pick multi paying the big bucks! Trouble is that we start going South after we get to '2 from 2'! Maybe it's the week where we stick our necks out? You just never know Wadda!
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It is a bit confusing with the distances for Guineas races, Derby & Oaks races A quick glance at the Australian Group & Listed Races gives all the distances for the 3yo races - here are the main ones in the Autumn ... Randwick Guineas 1600m (March 10) $1Million Rosehill Guineas 2000m (March 24) 600k Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m (F) (March 31) 500k Australian Derby 2400m (April 7) $2Million ATC Oaks 2400m (F) (April 14) $1Million
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Blight thinks Dees will struggle to make the Eight.
Macca replied to Demonland's topic in Melbourne Demons
Yep, we need finals experience but it would great for the group to win a final or 2 rjay ... of course we need to reach the finals but given a decent run with injuries, we should do. I'd rather the players take more note of those who reckon we won't play finals ... there's your natural motivation right there. Talking up the teams chances from outside sources can be dangerous. We've got a lot of young players who simply need to concentrate on winning the next game in front of them. -
Ah ... so that's what you meant - makes sense now. I'd completely forgotten about him. I've edited that post. Take a look. So anyway - does 'The Shape of Water' shape up as the worst movie to win best picture at the Oscars? I haven't seen it but I know a few that have and they didn't care for it. 'The Artist' is another vying for top honours in that category (worst movie to win best picture) I will get around to watching 'The Shape of Water' regardless.
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Edit: ha ha!
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THE BOMBERS' DOPING SAGA - THE FAT LADY SINGS
Macca replied to Whispering_Jack's topic in General Discussion
I favour the latter argument 'br' ... The risk of being caught using PED's is much much higher for a sportsperson in a sport that has stringent drug testing. Would-be cheats in sports where there is token testing are virtually free to do as they please. Transparency has a cost when it comes to stringent testing ... the more that get caught has the effect of turning people off that sport. So to keep the customers happy, just do the token testing. Works a treat. -
The news is hotting up with regards to Nick Foles ... and it seems that Foles himself will be involved in the negotiations (that's according to coach Pederson) Nick Foles trade rumors: Eagles get a 'respectable' offer, AFC team dangled second-rounder
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One thing is for sure D77 ... there will be a number of very good 2yo's that won't run a place in the race. The question is, which ones? And we might even have a surprise winner outside of the top 6. If 'Spin' gets a run it could surprise ... couldn't get a run on Saturday but nearly got up (and the inside running wasn't the favoured way of going) As you said, Sunlight & Written By have been outstanding whilst Performer & Estijaab haven't done a lot wrong. And then there's Santos (Gai has told us all to back him) and Seabrook was also impressive on Saturday. Prairie Fire and Nomothaj also have claims. I normally steer clear of the 2yo races but not this time around ... there's a lot of high interest and any number of chances can win the Slipper. Oohood for a place? ha ha
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The strategy might mean to avoid Wadda! ... I have enjoyed the excellent feedback from your good self & binman though. What the chat has done is reinforce my trifecta strategy in terms of avoiding the big fields in Sydney & Melbourne but to also look elsewhere for the right type of trifecta races (Ascot, Sha Tin & maybe Morphettville/Doomben) I'm a great believer in 'whatever works' ...and if that means avoiding a bet in the odd big feature event, so be it.
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If we use our 4 best bets as an example of going one-out, I would have taken a punt on Santos & Aloft but included a couple more with 'Care to Think' & Alizee. I would had Shoals in the Alizee race but not 'Crack Me Up' in the 'Care to Think' race (I didn't even have Crack Me Up in my top 5 in that race - hindsight says I should have, of course) I'll work something out but if not, I'll just stick to my trifecta's. For instance, a $40 quadrella = 3 or 4 separate trifecta's in terms of outlay. In the end, we punt the way we feel comfortable with.
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I see ... so it's best to take a couple of others to win (as well as the raging favourite) in a race like the Challenge Stakes (where Redzel is already the 1.50 favourite) and hope that Redzel gets beaten. That principle would have worked in the Lightning Stakes as long as Redkirk Warrior is included as a winner. Sounds like a plan.
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Never seen it EH but there again I rarely watch commercial TV (unless it's sport) I much preferred 'Take Care with Graham Kerr' ... which was a cooking show on the ABC that went for less than 5 minutes (which is about as long as a cooking show should go for)