Demon Dynasty

Ok i don't normally run the weighted score ratings for the opposition as i usually don't have the time but hey, this is 2020 and not exactly going out and about as often right now. And less so from 11.59pm tonight (well done Dan et al!). So first up is the out of form Tigers from Sunday's Rnd 5 match at the G. Their team score was 11.2% up on ours and the other notable difference was their bottom 6 score, a massive 86% increase in output vs our bottom 6. The bottom 6 often regarded as the difference on the day. This may have played a significant part along with their top 3 scoring players outstripping our top 3 significantly. However their next group, from Bachar at no.4 down to Martin, drops away significantly in comparison to ours only recouping some of those losses from about Martin down (their bottom 7 to be exact). Player Score Rank Kane Lambert 5.375 1 Jack Higgins 4.075 2 Josh Caddy 4.000 3 Bachar Houli 2.850 4 Jayden Short 2.625 5 Nathan Broad 2.550 6 Shane Edwards 2.525 7 Dion Prestia 2.525 8 Mabior Chol # 2.200 9 Trent Cotchin 2.150 10 Dylan Grimes 2.150 11 Toby Nankervis # 1.925 12 Jake Aarts 1.900 13 Noah Balta 1.900 14 Daniel Rioli 1.800 15 Dustin Martin 1.775 16 Liam Baker 1.650 17 Tom Lynch 1.625 18 Jack Riewoldt # 1.575 19 Jason Castagna 1.500 20 Nick Vlastuin 1.425 21 Kamdyn Mcintosh 0.450 22 Team Score 50.550 Top 6 21.475 Bottom 6 8.225 # Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Yes quality over quantity for these type of players Dazzle.

Exactly. Fcs i hope they don't try and turn him into a robotic defensive beast only type and take all the instinctiv flare / class and finish away. Pickett isn't the type you expect to rack up a mass of possessions. Mind you it will take time to get to the level expected of a small nippy goal sneak forward. What i am hoping for is a 10 to 12 possession a game type player that scores or assists consistently with those. 2 odd goals on average and a number of score involvements / assists and chase down tackles i50 and he's playing his role imv. To get there though, he is going to need a genuine KF (or two) to feed / read off. At the moment we have zippo. This is another reason i am keen to see May trialed up forward if T-Mac, Brown and Weid all flop prior to that.

LJ is a very exciting prospect Wise. As you say given enough time, put a little bit of bulk without putting on so much that he loses his athleticism and leap however and he should be right. If he wasn't so lanky/raw at this point through the body i would even go so far as to pull the pin at some stage later this season IF T-Mac continues to flop and just slot him in for the last 6 rounds or so at FF for a run. Risky with this group's form though and his physical size at the moment. Might get too knocked about physically and mentally. In a better drilled / more professional outfit that was at the top of its game and were hitting up targets coming inside 50 more often? Maybe an option. The way we play? All those long bombs would probably see him knocked out or worse lol.

That's true,to a degree but lets run through each of those AW. May.... usually solid short kick. Ok / average medium or longer. Jetta. Great nullifier. Probably the best short kick in the team at present. Not sure about medium and longer but probably better than AFL average here for defenders (just a guess). Height means he can't match up on anyone other than a medium / small forward without being exposed in the air. Great clubman and hoping he goes on for another season or two but verging on retirement. Lockhart: early days, looks promising in patches. Plenty of upside. Kicking skills im not sure of at this point. Someone might enlighten me. AFL's kick rating would be handy here. Height not quite there to defend on medium talls. Rivers: see Lockhart but potentially another cog up. Again haven't paid attention to the finishing with boot. Ditto re height on medium talls. Imho grooming Young into the replacement role taking over from Jetta at some stage (probably) soon, likely elite kicking skills over ANY distance (a critical differentiation vs anyone listed above off HB) & tall enough to handle medium/tall forwards if required and probably medium/smalls as well. We see things differently AF but that's all good. You may well be on the money and i might be barking up the wrong tree. We will never know of course. P.S. I forgot to mention the $800k man who appears to be only capable of kicking it long down the line on most occasions.

I had a preference at the time Wise given what "i believed" (rightly or wrongly) was lacking in our stocks. Im still sticking to that call. That doesn't mean a thing though. They might both be stars and we win regardless. They might both be busts. One might be a bust. Who knows. I'm no writing LJ off by any means. Yes he might take some more time and happy to allow for that. Im not in your "Zero time to develop" bias theme. However i am entitled to hold a view. And my view was that Young (erratum) was likely to offer a little more a little earlier and offer exactly what we needed in terms of helping to clean up our pitiful disposal skills.

Im pretty sure most supporters get the rookie/tall vs time to develop situation Wise. No doubt there'll always be a few exceptions.

And Pruess still on the list W as a lumpy back up. Im sure Jackson will be a good player at some point but is he a ruckman? A forward? Im not sure he is either. Maybe that's a good thing. But Young would have slotted in pretty much straight away and lifted our awefull kicking skills substantially off HB almost immediately.

Not my circumstances more the club's FD. Although it hasn't exactly been smooth going at my end either. What can we do. It's one crazy year that's for sure. About the only thing that hasn't changed through all the mayhem that is 2020 is the MFC's consistent ability to find new ways of ripping the heart out of its fans!

Young was a must get vs Jackson imo Dazzle given Young was the best kick in the draft and many of our existing players are (and were) generally rated as some of the worst.

Nice work JTR. How many times have we seen this nonsense pop up over so many matches and losses now. Viney, Gus, Chunk and Clarry. They all do the same thing. You might be able to coach / train this out of Clarry if you catch him now and put some crazy work into him. The other 3 are Gawnsky IMO and all need to be either retired (in the case of Chunk) or let go at season's end.

No it does if you are comparing averages of individuals from this year to their previous year averages without adjusting for the 20% loss of game time. On the other hand, comparing 'team' averages against the rest of the comp (eg., differentials) is relative and no adjustment is necessary. The 20% time differential impacts the ability of all players to rack up stats vs prior years. it needs to be taken off when comparing an individual. Those players who are sitting around 0% change after adding back 20% differential are basically treading water vs 2019 or prior. Anyone down more than 20% (significantly) has gone backwards (statistically anyway).

Good to see you on FD. Been a while or have i missed your other posts of late? Unfortunately under not so great circumstances. Aside from getting the experience of Roos on board, the next appointment was always going to be super critical for the club's success or otherwise in a post Roos environment. Especially seeing as Roos really didn't stay the required course needed to fully right the sinking ship. As much as i would love to see SG and the boys get this right and succeed i'm really struggling to see where the turnaround is going to come from given we've been seeing the same old same old rubbish since the Prelim 2018. As SW is always reminding us, we never truly addressed the issues surrounding that massive fail / capitulation. The MFC has too often done this IMO, including the '88' GF debacle under Swooper as well as the 2000 loss under Danners. We basically went ahead with pretty much the same team into 2001 'hoping' that somehow, just maybe, the 2000 loss was an aberration. It wasn't and we went on to miss finals that year dropping a massive nine places to 11th! If you lose a GF by 10 plus goals your team is basically 10 plus goals behind the best in the league. That's still a massive gap and needs to be be addressed list wise. The same should have happened after 2018 prelim. It needed a major review / serious look in the mirror across the entire list not just the line coaches mid 2019, but it never happened. I still think our biggest mistake of recent times list wise was two first rounders for Lever. No one other than maybe a G Ablett type is worth that sort of sacrifice. Especially a defender. We are paying for that in a big way now IMO. Should have gone after a couple of genuine forwards. If Brown, T-Mac and/or Weid can't find the pill and hit the scoreboard in a significant way for the remainder of the season it's time to thank them for their services and waive them goodbye. The same goes across the board for the likes of Hunt, Melk and maybe even one or two big names of the club if they don't ship up. A significant part of the blame no doubt lies with SG. But if the players don't also pull their socks up from here then some will also need to pay a price for the betterment of the club. Aside from a few years under Swooper, i am still yet to see a ruthless edge / stick taken to this club and its players. And don't think it isn't needed. We are like no other club in the league. We continue to find new ways of dishing up horrid results on the field season after season, decade after decade. A massive stick is what is needed at year's end if there is no miraculous turnaround in form. Do Pert and the board have it in them? Or are they just along for the ride as we've seen with so many others over the decades. We are in desperate need of a heart and soul CEO right now a la Benny Gale.

And it all started with Viney at that first center bounce. Either cant see / assess what's around him, even when in the clear or doesn't want to pull the trigger on 45s even though he may be seeing these options. Instead he panics, reverses his initial instinctive move to go forward into space and pull the trigger, goes backwards and handballs (the responsibility) off to a team mate a few meters behind who then cops immediate heat resulting in a turnover and possibly the Tigers first easy goal. These blokes arent struggling to win a contest. i believe we are presently 3rd in the league for contested differentials? We are bereft of poise (ability to stop / prop and asses and/or slow down a cog and do same) and the disposal skills (confidence) to pull the trigger on angled kicks and deliver to guys in the clear (who in that vision are clearly presenting and providing those opportunities). So after 3 seasons (and a bit) under SG what do we have? A great contested brand, which was already there under Roos, but not much else. And, this is SG's list now. So he's had the chance to add layers of finesse / skill and poise to all those under him, but has failed to do so...big time. So either he has chosen very poorly and / or his ability to coach is very limited. There is no other plausible explanation. The buck stops with SG.

Yep we were ripe and ready to waltz in to finals but, once again, Goody for whatever reason couldn't get them fired up for a big encounter. Instead it was Bucks who got his charges fired up coming out all guns blazing in the first half. It's a rinse and repeat story that sees us coming from a fair way behind at half time far too often. This club is wailing / failing as we watch in 2020. If Perty (and the board) doesn't put a rocket up Goody & the FD's khyber pass soon i'll spew up.

Out: Viney, Melk, Smith, Tomlinson & Hunt In: Jones (if fit otherwise Bedford), Brown, Bennell, ANB & O-Mac (last chance saloon this season surely).

Has a familiar ring to it bingers. I was on board from about 70/71. Not much joy in all those years. I try to take the positives wherever they might be but just feels like we've been treading water and/or slowly sinking in quick sand since our last GF appearance in 2000. And although i enjoyed the build up, both GF appearances were very forgettable.

Yes thats correct bingers. He is young and going to have some off games but he really tore it up on a few occasions last season. Looking forward to his return although this season might be a right off regardless. Frrom some of the interviews i've heard with past players, interrupted pre-seasons usually end up in poor or average outcomes on the field when returning mid season. Then there's the no Casey factor also.

I wouldn't say nobody wants to stand up. I think Max, Tracc, Clarry (if he would clean up his disposal act and burst from congestion a little) May, Hannan and a few others give a yelp but the fight pretty much drops off a cliff from there. Viney and Gus as well but unfortunately both are deestroyers of the air conveyance. T-Mac tries his guts out but looks overweight and limited mobility now compared to 2018. We are also missing Marty Hore (in form) down back in place of a Lockhart or Smith for some extra run, intercept marking and decent finish too imo.

A stop loss might be needed at some point though Dr. If we can't get a decent string of wins on the board by about Rnd 12 we might potentially be looking at another 10k members (or more!) down next season. The financial loss of that scenario might outweigh or go close to matching the pay out cost. And we all know it's easier to keep members than to recruit them. A new coach (with cred) ....and hope springs eternal.

No access to the McGoos would be effecting many clubs i would think OD. The topsy turvy season continues unebated and for many players it's either sink or swim. Our horrid form certainly isn't helping our cause one iota. Lead by a coach who gives the impression of a rabbit frozen in the headlights at times and very stubborn when it comes to adjusting / adapting and trialling new things. He better make some significant moves / changes soon or he might become another road kill on the bloodied road that is the MFC .

As long as those two are trialled at some point WB. Preferrably starting this weekend. The current set up, May playing back and neither of Brown or Weid up forward, isn't working. Happy to see the two role playing forwards given a go but confidence in those two isn't high. The trouble with all this talk is, it's just talk. I'm sure Brown and / or Weid will find their way into the 22 at some point. But should they fail does Goody roll the dice and send May forward as a last resort? Can't see him being that daring but hopefully i'll be proven wrong if the former two fail.

In not adverse to trialling Brown and Weid there. T-Mac plays deep forward for mine. But should those two options fail us i reckon May at CHF is a must. By Tommo i mean Tomlinson to CHB to free May up WB. Not T-Mac. T-Mac either performs at FF or he's a bust imv.

Ok only 4 rounds in and we finally have a few averages to work off. Normally wouldn't post averages till about Rnd 6 when some substantial data is in but hey, everything about this season is topsy turvy and it's effectively shortened by 20% so may as well have an early look. When you are looking at differentials in averages vs 2019 make sure to add 20% to the 2020 difference for a more realistic number. In a team sense this adjustment means our top 22 (when playing) are actually 3.6% ahead of the 2019 average. Marginal but any positive is worth noting. Is this the start of some sort of recovery? Most likely too early to call is my best guess. Another 3 matches or so should give us a better idea as to how we are tracking vs 2019. # Hit outs to advantage not included *Not an average only one match played Player 2020 Weighted Score 2020 Rank 2019 Weighted Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019 Max Gawn # 3.644 1 3.256 11.92 4 3 Christian Petracca 3.338 2 2.616 27.60 10 8 Clayton Oliver 3.306 3 4.643 -28.80 1 -2 Jack Viney 2.838 4 3.068 -7.50 5 1 James Harmes 2.800 5 3.850 -27.27 2 -3 Angus Brayshaw 2.456 6 2.894 -15.13 6 0 Ed Langdon 2.388 7 - - - - Alex N-Bullen 2.338 8 1.984 17.82 21 13 Harley Bennell * 2.250 9 - - - - Jay Lockhart 2.225 10 1.660 34.04 31 21 Michael Hibberd 2.208 11 2.124 3.95 20 9 Christian Salem 2.200 12 3.448 -36.19 3 -9 Steven May 2.169 13 2.446 -11.32 14 1 Mitchell Hannan 2.088 14 1.325 57.58 36 22 Aaron Vandenburg 2.050 15 - - - - Oscar McDonald * 2.000 16 1.877 6.55 26 10 Neville Jetta 1.788 17 2.264 -21.05 18 1 Jake Lever 1.694 18 2.313 -26.76 17 -1 Tom McDonald # 1.638 19 2.150 -23.81 19 0 Adam Tomlinson # 1.613 20 - - - - Nathan Jones * 1.475 21 2.711 -45.59 8 -13 Joel Smith 1.158 22 - - - - Toby Bedford * 1.150 23 - - - - Bayley Fritsch 1.150 24 2.641 -56.46 9 -15 Trent Rivers 1.033 25 - - - - Kysaiah Pickett 0.942 26 - - - - Jayden Hunt 0.858 27 1.958 -56.18 22 -5 Jake Melksham 0.756 28 1.931 -60.85 23 -5 Mitchell Brown * 0.625 29 - - - - Luke Jackson * 0.250 30 - - - - Charlie Spargo * -0.250 31 1.375 -118.18 23 -8 Average Team Score -Top 22 49.663 59.623 -16.70

Tomo can handle CHB Wise. No-Mac takes the FB role. Lever needs to finally earn his coin and provide a regular chop out / intercept role, which i understand is what he was brought in for in the first place. Lend a hand as required. We need to put a score on the board and lock the ball inside 50 for decent game time. Even if we give up a goal or two extra to kick 4 or 5 extra the other way. Payoff is there by correcting the current putrid forward issues. Roll the dice or die wondering? I know which way i'd be going and at present, we are going nowhere.