nutbean

my starting was 1850 ? Cherry picking any 15 years will give you a varying result - I think that is the point

The AR5 is expected to confirm that each of the last three decades has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850, with the first decade of the 21st century topping all the charts. This contrasts sharply to the idea that the fifteen years between 1998 and 2012 has been a period of global “cooling”, as some sceptics like to claim. This demonstrates the necessity of looking at longer term trends, rather than cherry picking data over a short period of time. This is particularly in climate science, where trends are observed over centuries, rather than year on year. I have no problem listening to arguments about how futile the efforts of many governments are in tackling the issue of climate but I do struggle with the argument of the existence of climate change. Are there alarmists suggesting we are all going to incinerate within 5 years - of course. Are there still natural forces that can impact modelling - of course and are the models 100% accurate ? - no. Does overwhelming scientific opinion acknowledge the existence of this problem and suggest it is only going to get worse - yes.

Most scientists will argue that taking 1998 as the starting point automatically begets a false conclusion, as this year was particularly hot, thanks to strong El Nino conditions transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. “Taking 1998 as the starting year is a joke,” says Pieter Tans, a climate scientist who worked on the IPCC report. “Why not 1997 or 1999? Anyone doing this gets an ‘F’ grade in introductory statistics. “It is too early for us to be able to say that the human-caused warming has stopped. I fully expect the long-term warming to continue because we know that our activities are causing the greenhouse gases to increase, and we can calculate based on very well understood physics, how the GHGs retain heat in the atmosphere.” He adds: “There is no ‘Greenhouse Warming Hypothesis’. The warming expectation follows directly from established physics and chemistry.”

As some 90% of the global heat rise is trapped in the oceans , the ocean heat level reflects global warming more accurately than land and atmosphere warming. the ocean has absorbed —about 20 times as much heat as the atmosphere over the past half-century. Lets no teven talk about acidification. Pretty normal stuff

I'm delighted that the leadership group contains only those who were standouts and no one was included who was a "maybe" deserved to be included. Like positions in the team, the leadership group should pick itself and places need to be earned. The LG should not be about potential and future leaders - their time will come.

Don't hold back bub...tell us what you really think of him... ( i do like "festering blob of excrement" - can I use that ?)

Maybe I should say that I want him to get some "easy ball". Crowley does a fantastic shutdown job but he also has the nous ( or the licence ?) to run off his opponent when he doesn't have the ball. Getting 5 metres clear and giving out an easy handball or chip kick would make Jordie a more effective footballer - I did notice he was doing that a little more last year than in the Neeld era ( and getting hung for THAT shot on goal).

Therein lies the biggest problem. Trying to get concensus within a single country let alone globally...hmmmmmm

I hope that the likes of Bail, McKenzie and Terlich have improved out of sight. I consider these players real tryers with some weaknesses in their disposal (and in McKenzie's case - getting involved). I want these players to improve so much that it gives the selectors headaches and it gives what I consider the naturally talented footballers the impetus to make the most of their natural abilities week in and week out. There was a reason that Bail played most games last season - he regularly did the job that Roos asked of him and there wasn't a footballer doing a better job at Casey, knocking the door down to take his spot. We laud Cross and we rightly should - not overly quick, not overly good overhead and adequate by foot and hand. He plays smart and he plays to 100% of his ability most weeks. He screams out " if you want my place in team, play better than me". For us to rise to the top we do need better players than Bail. McKenzie and Terlich. For us to rise to the top we need Bail, McKenzie and Terlich playing well to force the better players to actually play better and take their spots. ( then we need the likes of Bail. McKenzie and Terlich to believe that if they play at the top of their game they can get a gig - think Cameron Ling at Geelong)

I have been on record as saying that I accept the overwhelming amount of scientific opinion on the problem of climate change. I have less faith that globally Governments are doing enough to tackle the problem ( greenwashing). Earl - you have nailed my personal philosophy on this problem - even if you are not certain of the science, if you are not sure of the outcome - do you want chance the worst case scenario's eventuating. I weigh up the question - what is worse - globally, doing absolutely nothing ( or paying lip service) and the worst case scenario eventuating as opposed to Governments taking serious action against a problem that the worst case predictions may not eventuate ? (I know DC - the biggest problem is that enough Governments aren't and won't take serious action)

And how did he help set up the goal ? With handball. To my mind Jordie's problem has not been that he handballs too much or that he fluffs some kicks. My issue is he has not involved himself on the outside or put himself forward as an option. I think his opponents know that he will tag them but will not run off them the other way so they don't pay a great deal of attention to him when we have the ball in hand. It does not surprise me Roos is making him play outside linking up as that to my mind is the major weakness in his game. Saty said last year on asking McKenzie what he need to do to get a regular game - "kick more goals" - I just think he needs to get himself a lot more involved. ( that's not to say he doesn't need to lift his skills by foot because if you only handpass you become predictable - but I would still have Jodie h/ball more than kick - he is just better at it )

I am completely disillusioned with all sides of politics and the standard of politicians in general. I expect Clive Palmer to have me scratching my head, I expect to be gobsmacked by some of Bob Katters mutterings but irrespective of feelings on policy I expect my PM to have a modicum of political nous ( the nous that got him/her the top job in the first place). I said before I did not respect John Howard's policies but respected him as a politician. As insulting as this is, Tony Abbott is our version of George W Bush. (One of my mates said yesterday " I say and do dumb [censored] all the time, I don't expect my Prime Minister to follow suite".)

Both correct - it is the need for interpretation that makes the figures shyte. Our backliners disposal efficiency number looks much better on paper than it is. The defenders chip the ball around backwards quite well to each other but we have certain players who are average by foot coming forward out of the backline. Their efficiency number is going to look above average but it does belie their average ability by foot. Inside, in and under footballers who get the ball out of heavy traffic will by the nature of their work have a lower disposal efficiency figure. The best way to judge efficiency is still to watch and McKenzie, Grimes, McDonald and Terlich are four that need to improve their foot disposal when they are under little pressure.

As I said - I am delusional. ( actually ...I'm not...it was a fluffy response to something that I know too well will never happen)

I find it interesting that - we can argue the merits of the major parties policies and governing abilities and critique it - this has a bearing on the opinion polls - we as voters don't like infighting, disloyalty and detabilisation - this has a bearing on opinions polls. But what effects the polls the most ? When a politician is a 1st class goose his appeal slides down quicker than Kim Kardashian's underwear. I deplored the debacle between Rudd and Gillard - would I describe either of them as unintelligent ? no. I did not like much of what John Howard stood for but view him as the consummate politician - rarely put a foot wrong on how he presented. But this Abbott make me cringe - did you catch this line - " one of the reasons why so many members of the team are able to perform so well is because they've got a very good captain." - Who the hell says that about themselves ??? Seriously......

irrespective of that - the major difference between the Doggies and us is the dogs at the time of letting Cross go did have some quality mature "runners" in Boyd, Griffin, Picken with up and comers in Libratore and Wallis - so whilst I don't agree with their decision ( fortunate for us !) I can understand their rationale for making the decision. We on the other hand were screaming out for mature heads with good work ethic. I would think therefore that both McCartney and Cross have moved on from that time.

I have always disagreed with this line of thinking. Duped is not quite the right word. I compare this with Justin Charles - he was a single player that went outside the club environment and took advice from non club doctor to take something to speed his recovery. I understand that the players are educated in drugs but when the club - the same club that demands everything is done as a "team" - train together, play together, all in one in - puts forward to the entire list a program that the club tells the players is safe (including the club doctor) would you question it - i have talked to two ex AFL footballers and they said BEFORE this thing exploded - they would not have questioned it - obviously the landscape has been changed forever. I know the parents of one current player tied up in this ( not on the list anymore) - the parents questioned the program and he simply said - do you think the club would risk the health and playing futures of the entire list ? ( how wrong was he). I probably think the older wiser players should have questioned what they were taking - I have some sympathy for the newbies. When it is all said and done I sadly agree the players need to punished as they are ultimately responsible - to the club officials responsible - ban them forever.

From a person that has not delved into the detail like some on here I would suggest that Hirds treatment has been anything but shameful. My issue with him is he has had little interest in "what did our players take and what it illegal ( and more importantly harmful)". To my outside eyes looking in, he has fought this issue entirely on process. It's like a person being a suspect in a murder, the police enter his house, see the weapon and a taped confession on his video - but the accused fights the case on a flaw in the police's search warrant.

Fabulous lateral movement and evasive skills. Given the choice of the two, with the crowding of the game, I would opt for lateral movement and evasiveness over straight line speed.

Please dont call Abbott "Nutbag" - then I start to get offended ( too close to home for my liking)

Is it about length of tenure ? It is too early to judge if Roos will be successful or not (although I am bullish on early indictations) but if he manages in three years to right what was a very leaky boat and put us on the path to success then I would have his face up on the banner every day of the week. The same goes for Jackson - too early to make full judgement on his work but I like his start a lot. The entry of Jackson and Roos to this club cannot be downplayed. We stunk on ice before their arrival and we have just started to turn what was a rotting hulk around. If they are both only around for three years but set us up for sustained success I would not only have them on the banner - I would have them both as mods.

yes you can. auot corretc is always to blame.

Unfortunately correct - I think you once mentioned that you see the only solution to this problem is a "scientific breakthrough" ( I may be misquoting but I hope you understand what I mean). I tend to agree with you because Governments worldwide will not aggressively tackle the issue. I would like to see Australia's contribution as a global approach to the problem with the understanding that all countries participate equally and obviously some countries contribution will have a significant impact whereas others contribution will have little to no impact but the country will be participating equally with others. I would like to see a global approach to the problem where all Governments take a very aggressive approach to significantly lower carbon emissions but as stated previously, I am completely delusional .

it is interesting to hear this about Neita. There has been some arguments around him being a champion but I have always answered it in two ways - has he been a champion of the game ? To me the measurement of this purely how he performed in games - I don't think he rates up there with the other great forwards like Ablett, Lockett and Carey. Is he a champion of our club - in every conceivable way...yes. The measurement is so much wider - not only his specific contribution with ball in hand. His behavior and commitment to our club both on and off the field was exemplary ( besides one little indiscretion). He was loyal, played many games under duress because the club needed him, led by example and was a great voice for the club both on and off the field - and a more humble bloke you couldn't hope to meet. Always more interested in talking about others rather than himself. B Bob's post just adds more weight to how I feel about the big bloke - no problem at all with him being on the banner.

And the only thing that the scientific community has in common is their view on man's contribution to the real problem of climate change. What has widely varying views is the effect that actions put in place by Governments to combat this problem will have. I have little faith that plans put into place by many Governments ( especially our Government) will have any impact what so ever.