binman

13 hours ago, Megatron said:

To sub Van Rooyen is a sackable offense 

Yeah, how crazy to sub a kid who was clearly gassed,and had

- a player rating bested only by hore and the sub 

- 25 supercoach points

- 8 disposals at 25% efficiency (meaning only 2 of his disposals were effective)

- only three marks on a perfect night for footy

- no hit outs

- one score involvement

- only 5 pressure acts

- zero tackles on a night where we had 18 tackles inside our 50 (probably our season high)

- and as our key forward had one shot at goal for the grand total of no goals and no points.

But sure, let's sack the coach for subbing him.

4 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Discussing fitness coaches is exhausting work

What I find annoying is it always goes around in circles.

5 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Personally, if I could, I would create a banner for him - I think you should create a banner for him or maybe get @WalkingCivilWar in on the action.

Maybe something like

"Dan Houston, your long kicking is a form of art

Feel the vibes of a members wing

And don't forget

Hells Bells, is better than

Never Tear Us Apart"

How about:

Dan stick with the plan and be a Dee.

If you don't, Houston, we have a problem.

On 06/08/2024 at 17:58, DubDee said:

Put Max on ice 

Or at the very least his ankle.

15 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Yep, somehow retain the shape of 2021-2023 and the ball use of 2018.

I think actually it's doable.

Crudely, it just means we change the way we are prepared to move the ball, which may lead to more scores against, but the better shape behind the ball should prevent huge leakages.

I do wonder if this is ultimately what we've been trying this year, it just didn't work.

I think the last para is spot on. 

No doubt conditioning is a big issue, so it's hard to judge our method.

But there is no doubt that out relative lack of foot skill (and handball skills?) hurts us big time with the turnover game. We give it back too often and players like salo and bowey have dropped off in terms of their ability to hit high risk kicks coming out of our back half.

In our back 7, or mid for that matter, who would you trust to hit a high risk kick to the corridor?

For me, probably only mcvee and tmac now.

That ain't gonna cut it.

Which is why i think our greatest need is flankers who are elite kicks and elite runners not mids.

On 05/08/2024 at 18:46, Engorged Onion said:

So, is Contest and Defence dead? Is the MFC now behind the curve of where the game is at? It was once comfortably ahead by a year, or perhaps only 6 months.

Fast, free flowing football, as evidenced by last year and this year, seem to be the paradigm of choice.

So what will be the tactics and system that rebut it? And does Goodwin and co, have the innovative nous to attempt to combat this.

I'm not great at articulating methodology of tactics and going into forensic detail of systems and game plans - but some my DL brethren may. Feel free to come up with some theories about where we may be headed from a tactical and system perspective.

No, is the short answer.

Contest and defence are still fundamental 

Particularly if contest includes pressure.

Teams that can't apply elite pressure are not going to win a flag. 

Sure fast ball movement from the back half is now more important, but pressure is what creates turnovers.

And it's really all about turnover now.

The pies are a great example. Last year they combined pressure, contest and speed (though they often lost the pressure count in the first two thirds of the season- that changed come finals).

It's this combination of needing quick players with decent foot skills and applying crazy heat in the contest that makes the game so taxing now.

My feeling is this is a big factor in why performance had been so variable this season acrrosd the competition.

I can never remember a season so volatile and unpredictable in terms of results and margins.

Take Sydney's loss on the weekend gone. Ten years ago they would have been written off as a flag chance. But does anyone seriously think they're not still a red hot chance of winning the flag?

That said our high performance program no doubt reflected our playing style and personele in the last few years- anaerobic power athletes like Jack, trac and clarry crashing into packs.

Perhaps the greater emphasis, and need for aerobic athletes like nibbler, langers and Windsor has created a challenge for our program. And found us out as perhaps we don't have enough  such players.

As layzie notes, come finals contest, defence and pressure becomes king again.

6 hours ago, Lexinator said:

Lube your bike chain, Lingers, bit squeaky. 

Euphemism?

At the top of my list of dees I'd love to have dinner with.

Good on ya langers.

48 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Not disagreeing, but two of the main reasons why fitness can be down are:

- missed training/pre-season/matches through injury etc

- younger players who have limited pre-seasons and haven't built up the deep stamina you need at AFL level

There's not too many out there who don't fall into one of those two categories.

I 100% agree 

In fact I'd say they are the the two key reasons.

Won't stop Selwyn getting some heat but.

39 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

Watching Freo and Essendon,

we need a lot more speed.

Agree.

And both teams really looked to exploit that when they played us.

27 minutes ago, djr said:

We were ranked #1 for Score from Turnover Differential in 2021. We were #4 in 2022 and #3 in 2023. This season, we have plummeted to #15, just ahead of North, Richmond and WC. 

Do you have any ideas as to why, in relation to this stat, we have fallen off the cliff this season? I think this stat fairly depicts our ladder position.

There's a few reasons why we are 15th for turnover diff I reckon.

Number one is fitness. It's an incredibly taxing style of play aerobically and I don't think we have ever got fit enough. The pies have struggled on turnover for the same reason.

I think our poor skills is another key factor - we give the ball back too easily and often don't take advantage when we win a turnover.

That's exacerbated by not being able to field our best 23 often enough.

And implementing a new model is hard- particularly for the defence which has found it hard im the back half of the year to cover entries (though to be fair that's more on our inability to consistently apply pressure to the kicker or slow ball movement- see point one).

26 minutes ago, djr said:

We were ranked #1 for Score from Turnover Differential in 2021. We were #4 in 2022 and #3 in 2023. This season, we have plummeted to #15, just ahead of North, Richmond and WC. 

Do you have any ideas as to why, in relation to this stat, we have fallen off the cliff this season? I think this stat fairly depicts our ladder position.

I don't think the bolded bit is correct  (nor the orher numbers).

Just doing a quick search, it's actually 17 of the lasy 18 flag winners have been ranked top 3 for scores from turnover differential- and im 99% sure we were the outlier.

From this article:

In 17 of the last 18 seasons, the premiers have sat in the top three for the score from turnover differentials competition-wide.

Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne defines a turnover as: When you win the ball back off the opposition and your ability to score off that. Or when you cough the ball up to the opposition and how well you defend that opposition possession.

“People hate that I keep saying this, but I’ll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday.

“The number one go-to that we constantly refer to is: how is your turnover game and where is that actually poised?

“So the points differential from turnover is the ‘real ladder’.

“Why is it the ‘real ladder’? Because 17 of the last 18 premiers have been top three. Not top six, not top eight, but top three in the turnover game.

“So it’s 60 per cent (or more) of your score (being from turnover).

14 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

He looks like he's fatiguing significantly in the last few weeks.

Another pre season under his belt and Koz will be even better next year.

If we get some young blokes from the first round of the draft, it might mean we only need Koz to occasionally pinch hit, but mostly stay forward.

Robbing peter to pay paul has been an underrated issue for us this season.

JVR, riv and koz all playing in the middle when we'd be better off if they were allowed to play their best positions.

1 hour ago, Binmans PA said:

I thought DS meant as rhe season progressed whatdid we'd to add fresh legs. Koz' mid minutes have probably reduced as the season has progressed, right?

I reckon they've gone up, but only because at the beginning of the season whilst he was regularly going to centre square bounces it was often only 5 or 6 times.

A few times of late it has been 10 plus timed.

32 minutes ago, rjay said:

This is interesting.

Hannebery said last Sunday that the Swans were loading.

He said just adding a little bit to the training is enough to flatten you on match day.

Someone else, can't remember if it was Hodge or Sanderson said clubs don't do loading anymore as the season is now too long and physically hard. They get their loading match days.

So, who knows.

...but I wouldn't think it's an excuse for a loss like last nights unless they are flogging to absolute s... out of them on the track.

edit: and I don't think loading is very sexy for the experts as it takes away a lot of their analysis. Think of all the fun they will be having over the Swans this week. They've been worked out, there turnover game is in disarray, Is Longmire the right guy?

You'd think hannebery would know if Swans are loading or not. I assume he still has connections with ex teamates.

Still probably not good enough for the how come it's not ever mentioned by ex players, head in the sand crew but. The swans must have been found out!

Agree no good for the so called analysts (how to explain an historical huge loss for a team on top of the ladder).

Good for punters though.

Now's the time to back the swans for the flag.

They're now $6 to win the flag. That's outstanding value.

10 hours ago, Mel Bourne said:

Calling it: Bulldogs v Dockers GF. 

Which would be ironic given the number if doggies fans calling for bevo's head just 5 weeks ago.

14 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

 

With respect Binman that is no reason for the Top side to lose by over 100 points, apart from Papley and Amartey the had almost had a full strength team.

There is still time for Sydney but assuming their season falls off a cliff questions will need to be asked; after 12 years at the helm.

Fair points.

Getting flogged by port by 112 points when on top of the ladder near season's end is nuts.

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

Nah.  They’re doing heavy loading.  Not joking either.

PS Not an excuse, just a reason…

I agree that is very likely, and said as much last week.

As you say, not an excuse just a factor.

(And I wouldn't sleep on the blues or pies for the same reason- I reckon both have got upside in terms of their running power)

But even so losing they probably win a couple of those games if not for injury. And certainly not torched by 112 points. 

On loading, teams that can't cover the ground (either because of loading, or as i think is the case with us just not fit enough) are getting torched this season with all teams playing transition, turnover football.

Running power, stamina and ability to cover the ground at speed have become absolutely critical.

As hoyne has frequently pointed out on sen, 16 of the last 17 premiers have been top 4 in scores from turnover (we were the exception in 2021).

Our opponents have ruthlessly exploited our lack of spread in the last few weeks as evidenced by the huge diff in uncontested possessions.

As someone who punts on line bets, I closely follow margins and the margins this year have been extreme.

So many good teams getting blown out by really big margins.

@WheeloRatings do you have any easily accessible data on margins this year compared to previous years. 

On 02/08/2024 at 23:30, Binmans PA said:

I'm disappointed that he's such a confidence player after all these years.

You could tell from very early on tonight he was thinking about last week.

I think it might be time I'm afraid...

He's just no good one on one, never has been.

Looks to have hit a wall too.

12 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Really? We added ANB and Rivers to midfield. What do you mean we've done nothing to add fresh legs?

And koz taken 10 plus centre bounces on multiple occasions this season.

17 hours ago, bing181 said:

JS, who in spite of everything was our best forward in the 23 finals (though forward line was decimated in any case, even Fritsch wasn't right after his injury).

Sparrow - who has his detractors here, but would have at least given us some options and is still our best I50 kick.

Ben Brown - no reason why he couldn't have given us 40+ goals a year and been a foil for JVR if his body had held up. He's only 31, same age as (e.g.) Jeremy Cameron. And you look at players like Taylor Walker (34) or even Tom Hawkins (36), there should have been plenty more good footy there.

Salem: was a key to our 21 premiership, his experience, leadership and disposal smarts are sorely missed down back. And having hm playing (decently) would have freed up Judd for more midfield time.

Plus:

Viney not right/carrying a shoulder.

Bowey hasn't been right since his shoulder and missing so much footy.

The team/list is completely shot, regardless of what the injury list says.

Why dees fans would choose to ignore these obvious facts is beyond me.

Acknowledging the impact of starting the season two best 22 players down (gus and smith - so essentially a list of 42 not 44), multiple senoir players having had interrupted preseasons (bb, tmac, McAdams, hunter, salo, oliver, spargo) and in season injury (bowey, Lever, may, salo, melksham,viney,Turner, McAdam, spargo, hunter, hore, Petty, Windsor, Gawn and tracc) doesn't mean you can't still think we are on the wrong path with goody or are no good.

It does mean any such argument is more credible.

Injury and conditioning are the two the biggest determinants of success.

The first had always been the case and the latter is becoming increasingly critical with the shift to the game being about turnoversall but complete.

Just look at the swans. World beaters until recently.

The premiership favourites have now lost what four of 5 games and just got flogged by 112 poimts.

112 points - by a team we beat.

What's changed?

Injury.

23 hours ago, MrFreeze said:

Supply has been abysmal for Casey forwards but Jeffo still works hard across the ground to tackle and crumb, great signs 

Mmm.

I went and kept a close eye on jeffo.

A couple of reallt good tackles and marks. And kicked goals, which is his main job

But he seriously needs to work on his defensive smarts, and of more concern, defensive intensity.

12 hours ago, Garbo said:

Goodwin is a frustrated coach but this year has been defined by injuries. 

And lack of fitness (the two factors being interconnected of course).

On 29/07/2024 at 17:49, KC from Casey said:

The stupidity of the VFL’s fixturing comes to the fore on Friday in mid-afternoon when a crowd of one or two dozen (weather permitting) turn up to watch a VFL game at Mission Whitten Oval which is probably out Footscray way. 

That’s where the Casey Demons will be playing this week and, despite the fact that they won’t play against about three other VFL clubs at all this year, they take on Footscray for the second time in 2024. They have already played the Brisbane Lions twice. 

Go figure?

That's great, I didn't realise the game was tommorow at whitten oval.

I have the day off and it's on my side of town.

A bus stop almost outside my house and the bus stops at West Footscray station over the bridge to the ground.

Watch the magoos in footscray.

Pho in Barkly Street.

Then on the train to Marvel.

Perfect Friday.

2 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

His haters on Demonland have gone very quiet. 

And his long term fans are nodding their heads sagely and saying I told you so.