binman
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Posts posted by binman
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Edited by binman
16 minutes ago, Nasher said: This is one of the arguments against full time umpires, in that many of them have well paid careers already that they’d then have to give up if they wanted to continue to umpire. The pay would need to be competitive - also because it’s a fairly dead end job with a finite shelf-life, in a similar way to playing is.
This is one of the arguments the media often make when poo pooiing the idea of umpires going professional.
Not having a shot at you Nasher, but it's one if the arguments that does my head in because it's got a false assumption baked into it.
The assumption is a professional umpiring model would build on the current model - which is that most (all?) umpires are well paid professionals in other fields (usually white collar it would seem, and often lauded as smart, high achievers in that field) and part time umpires.
But they don't have to be. And perhaps that model is actually part of the problem.
An alternative professional model is having a base starting salary of say 130k for AFL umpires. And then bonuses on top - eg finals, marquee games, performance, accuracy, etc.
And perhaps have some levels, eg based on games officiated, performance etc so the base for the best is say 200k plus bonuses.
They train together as a group (aerobic, decision making, team work etc etc) officiate AFL games, AFLW games and go out to local footy clubs leagues and help train young umpires.
I suspect plenty of young men and women who love footy, want to be involved in AFL footy would but know they won't make it as a player, would see that as a legitimate career pathway. One that they could be involved in until their 40s.
We don't need high achieveing accountants and lawyers who are part time umpires.
We need high achieving umpires.
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2 minutes ago, layzie said: Loved Fritta's goals in that last quarter but that decision to play on is stuck in my head. For a guy who's job is to kick goals when the chances come and a guy who has done it in the biggest game, I was baffled with this decision to play on. There was the other moment when he chose to kick to the top of the square.
He kicked one shortly after that from his great handball so I don't want to go too hard but n a game where goals are hard to come by you just tear your hair out in those moments. You just don't see Collingwood doing this in pressure moments.
Fritter just had to go back, use up his full 30 seconds, and kick the goal.
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Edited by binman
It's beyond a [censored] joke.
Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring.
What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metres away from a contest overruling an umpire who is 15 meters from the contest with an unimpeded view (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week.
Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non-controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against Melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back)
What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose of it then pies players with more time and no free)?
What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions?
What's the deal with non-decisions for blatant free kicks
One of the things that infuriates me is all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one of them.
I mean it's the only logical thing to do.
And the media's halfhearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans.
Can't bite the hand that feeds.
And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL.
And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.
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41 minutes ago, Webber said: And the deciding factor…….the umpiring. It’s a blight on this great game, and the voices that matter aren’t allowed to talk about it.
It's beyond a [censored] joke.
Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring.
What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metreS away from a contest overrulimg an umpire who is 15 metres from the cintest with an unimpeded virew (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week.
Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back)
What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose od it then pies players with more time and no free)?
What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions?
Whats the deal with non decisions of blatant free kicks
One of the things that infuriates me us all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one if them.
I mean it's the only logical thing to do.
And the media's half hearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans.
Can't bite the hand that feeds.
And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL.
And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.
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Edited by binman
2 hours ago, old dee said: That he seldom holds. Still living on the promise of 2023.
Bloke kicked 30 goals in the 2024 season, two more than he kicked in 2023.
Thirty goals in a season for a 21 year key forward, in a year we didn't make finals, playing as second ruck, is outstanding and compares favourably with the very best key forwards in the last 20-30 years.
But sure, still living on the promise of 2023.
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1 minute ago, adonski said: Leftfield..but Howes to be sub and play a potential medium forward role if needed (Melk) IMO. Obviously he can play tall and small in defence too should injury strike, and also allows us to put Disco forward later in the game
Howe is pretty good sub option I reckon.
Offers terrific flexibility.
As you say he can play back, tall and small and at a pinch, as you suggest, forward.
But he can also play wing, releasing the boson to play as a mid or replacing him or Lindsay.
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46 minutes ago, dees189227 said: North have a massive supporter base in WA. They mentioned it on radio & said because of all the nth players that are from WA
Ross the boss Glendinning being a big one I suspect.
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7 minutes ago, Nasher said: Teams are announced on a timeframe dictated by the AFL. What a completely ridiculous thing to pot the club over.
I find it so weird - presumably people who post on thiscsite support the dees. Yet some just do nothing but knock tbe club.
It makes it impossible to take anything they write seriously.
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9 minutes ago, Redleg said: The king hit on Smith by Matthews was disgusting and he should have been charged by the police. The Giles one was only slightly less disgusting.
Great footballer but absolute thug.
I was at that game. The worst thing I've ever seen on a football field.
It was a smart coaching move by Barass to put Smith on Matthews, who was basically playing as a full forward.
Normally Matthews had defenders on him roughly the same size but he'd was just too good one on one. Smith was taller obviously and was giving Matthews a comeyebath.
So Matthews hit him, from behind IIRC - certainly Smith didn't see it coming.
Lost all respect for Matthews that day. Still infuriates me the esteem he is held in.
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34 minutes ago, Jjrogan said: Not going to disagree with the basic premise that pressure is important but if you want a deep dive...
First 7 games of the years, yes pressure wins (losses) were correlated with results. However, against wc, hawks, brisbane and sydney (tie) the results were actually inversely correlated with pressure. No question if you have a significant drop off you leave yourself very open to be scored. But if its 50/50 which a lot games are its actually only mildly significant based on our results. (Lets call it a 66 percent hit rate)
As a comparison, some old fashion metrics, inside 50s and marks inside 50s.
For us inside 50s we have only lost the inside 50s twice all year (hawks and gc). Inside 50s mean nothing for us sadly.
Marks inside 50, we have won 5 times resulting in 4 wins. Lost 7 times for 6 losses So 10 out 12 games 'hit' rate.
No doubt one can argue pressure will help win the marks inside 50. Imo our real deficiency relative to the rest of the comp is catching the darn thing near goal and putting it thru the middle. Anyway those are the numbers.
That's the numbers for this season, fir us but you'rer right its not a direct correlation of course - though I will note that in the four wins you highlight the gap in pressure rating was marginal in three as you note the swans game tied).
And I'd also note 66% hit rate is statistically significant.
I suspect if the analysis was say 10 pressure points differential or would be close to 100%.
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5 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said: I'm wondering if with other fwds firing, it would take the pressure of Roo so as he can maybe just enjoy himself out there and be less anxious about being our \main scorer.
That's a good point. He has said he want to be a leader and for much of the ladtb2 years has been our best key forward.
Perhaps he puts a bit too much pressure on himself and as you say if he doesn't feel he has to the man, so to speak, up forward he can play with a bot more freedom.
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15 minutes ago, mauriesy said: However, 12 of the top 15 goalkickers for 2025 are still tall. Only Jamie Elliott, Jack Higgins and Ben Long are smaller forwards in the top-15 list.
What is interesting is how accurate the top 15 are.
Name
Team
Games
Goals
Behinds
Score
Marks
Shots
%
Last Game
12
38
14
242
70
52
73.1
12
33
16
214
63
49
67.3
11
32
13
205
36
45
71.1
9
30
6
186
48
36
83.3
12
29
9
183
26
38
76.3
11
28
5
173
56
33
84.8
2 v Sydney, Round 12
12
27
15
177
68
42
64.3
2 v Sydney, Round 12
10
26
15
171
58
41
63.4
10
24
15
159
62
39
61.5
3 v GWS, Round 11
11
24
11
155
45
35
68.6
13
24
8
152
55
32
75.0
11
24
18
162
60
42
57.1
12
23
11
149
62
34
67.6
10
23
13
151
50
36
63.9
10
22
11
143
42
33
66.7
Well Cameron, who whilst tall, does not play as a tradional key tall forward, or rarely does. He's really more a flanker. Nealeis the Cats key forward.
Meaning neither top 2 players in the coleman are key forward.
But, sure key talls are still important. And most of that list are key forwards.
But look at the average goals per game.
King is the leading goal scorer amongst the tall forwards.
At his current average, King will kick 61 goals for the home and away season.
Hogan won the coleman last year with 69.
And as i said neither the the pies or lions, one and two on the ladder, have a dominant key forward.
The crows are third and do have dominant key forwards, so are an outlier. But the key is still their fadt ball movement.
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8 minutes ago, DiscoStu17 said: AFL at the elite level has evolved into something different and separate from the U 18 version.
Elite key forwards are drafted as they can win 1-1 contests, which rarely happen at the elite level. Instead, they need to be able to compete against at least 2. Therefore, they need to be bigger, or a different type of player.
Of course it’s due to the defensive structures all teams employ, but we need to get smarter when trying to score.
Other teams are coming up with better tactics to separate the defence – Collingwood, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast.
Everyone else seems to be doing versions of these, or banging their head against the wall in the time honoured fashion.
We are doing that much better (ie sepeatimf decences) much better this year, certainly in our wins.
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Edited by binman
9 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said: our media dept's attention to detail is consistently inconsistent
We have a media department?
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1 hour ago, Whispering_Jack said: Weird how taj is the only player who's right up is not in italics - code of some sort (jokes btw)?
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Edited by binman
21 minutes ago, Wells 11 said: Do you think this is why JVR is so at sea in 2025?
It's a factor.
I think a related challenge for jvr is, as ive noted in other posts, two of the key metrics for tall forwards is ensuring their opponent doesn't take intercept marks and bringing the ball to ground so the smalls and mediums can go to work.
By definition that involves lots of tight, shoulder to shoulder battles which can't be easy for a young key forward.
But honestly I think the main challenge for JVR is that he is still young, particularly for a key forward.
They're cliches because they're true - key tall take longer to get to their peak than other players and improvement is not linear.
For proof of that just look at JVRs peers, ie other young key forwards - JUH, Amiss, Logan McDonald, Amartey, Treacy, Philthorp, Neale, Cadman.
All have had periods with big dips in their performances.
Treacy is a good comparison to JVR. He's been terrific this year, after a good 2024. But he's had his dips too - and its work noting thst he's almost a year older than JVR.
JVR is a gun and IMO will be back soon playing elite footy for the dees.
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Edited by binman
9 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said: Watching the Hawks last night gave me a bit of comfort as it showed that if a team brings the pressure they can match it with anyone. Hawthorn has been well down for a number of weeks now (the Suns game probably the outlier) but against the Dogs their pressure and discipline was formidable.
Of all stats, pressure rating is now by far and away the most reliable indicator in terms of the correlation between winning that stat and winning a game.
The real challenge for teams is its simply not possible to bring elite pressure for more than say 3 or 4 weeks in a row. Tops.
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10 hours ago, DubDee said: Remember when Naughton was the best young fwd in the league?
What has happened? doesn’t even mark much anymore
It's interesting actually, for all the talk about our need for a gun forward, the reality is in 202, as Daniel Hoyne often notes, the key is what happens with the ball (ie ball movement from the back half, kicking skills, ability to hit targets indside 50 and kicking skills of half back flanks, mids and wingers) not ahead of it.
That's to say gun tall forwards are no longer critical in the way they were 10 years ago.
Carlton is the obvious example as they have arguably two of the best key forwards in the AFL and they can't score.
In contrast the two best sides atm, the pies and the lions, don't have a dominant key tall (though Miochek whilst not that tall plays tall - a terrific player).
It's just so hard now for key forwards to take contested marks inside 50 and they rarely get clear leading lanes that players like Dunstall used to such great effect.
In terms of forwards, its hard to argue that the most important players are now small to medium forward amd mid/forwards like Elliot, Bailey, Koz, Papley etc etc.
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17 hours ago, Brownie said: Methamphetamine and no afternoon nap is not a good combo
Depends on the circumstances.
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Just now, binman said: Can't wait
2 hours ago, DiscoStu17 said: Looks like it might be a bit wet. But the surface is good, like all the ovals these days. It should be a good test for Casey. I still think that they can win by 10+ goals against pretty much anyone if they don’t turn the bloody thing over. So keep watch for overuse of handball in the rain.
I was def going and really looking forward to it (i live in the Southwest, so it's practically a home game) - but i just realised i have to wash my hair.
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3 minutes ago, The Cult of Disco Turner said: I have no idea whether the loading stuff is true or not. I joined the loading cult because the leader was convincing and it provides me some small amount of hope/cope. Plus they give out free snacks at our weekly cult meetings.
My little joke at the loading cult meetings, one fellow cult members roll their eyes at, is - 'here we go, enjoy some carb loading with these delicious pastries'
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Stats File - 2025 edition
in Melbourne Demons
I'm amazed our pressure was so low.
146 in the last quarter? That doesn't seem right,