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binman

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Posts posted by binman

  1. 3 hours ago, george_on_the_outer said:

    ANB gave a clinic on how to kick to the opposition when under no pressure.  So no change there. 

     

    Bit of a worry for the rest of the team then given he was number one last season for average kick to score ratio with kicks inside 50;  ie hitting targets.

    By the by, the bottom three?

    Maxy, Tracc and Clarry. 

    #nibblamthys 

    #sonochangethere

    #confrimationbiashardtoshake

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  2. 2 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

    Bowey is too small to be a mid at AFL level. He does not have the power and agility of someone like Kossie or the strength of Viney. I think Bowey can only play as a high half back or in ANB's role as a high half forward. (His lack of size would be a deficiency on the wing and he is not an absolute elite endurance runner.)

    Yeah, you're probably right (re: bowser as a mid). 

    If he is not an elite endurance runner he can't play Nibbler's High Half Forward role (being an elite endurance runner is the number one criteria for that role). 

    But following Kev's lead that he loves to kick a goal,  played forward as a junior and is an elite kick i could see him as a dangerous small forward. 

    But there is a bit of competition down forward for smalls with Koz a lock, Spargs and Laurie scrapping for a  spot and the Kolt and Sestan also vying for that role. 

    Half back it is then Bowser. 

    • Like 2
  3. 2 hours ago, Dannyz said:

    Why do we have to shift him at all when he's performing well in the role he's in?

    They don't. And if it was my call i would leave Bowey back. 

    But if as you suggest Howes goes back one the regular defenders has to come out, particularly if Gus also goes back.

    • Like 1
  4. 1 hour ago, Cranky Franky said:

    Nice speculation but before you write a 3 volume scenario of possible permutations & flow on effects maybe wait until Howes actually plays 1 senior game then maybe see if he will hold down a senior spot before we all get carried away.

    Howes has had big wraps on him for 2 seasons but so far has delivered SFA although he has been quiet unlucky with injuries. Even at Casey he has been solid rather than eye catching.

     

    k

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  5. On 19/01/2024 at 12:03, 12345_54321 said:

    Howes will be replacing Riv in the backline. That big bull Riv is heading straight for the midfield  

    That would make sense too.

    Howes is similar size to Riv and with his athleticism and depth on his kick would be be good replacement for Riv's run and carry role of HBF. 

    And as you say Riv's strength and physicality is perfect for the middle, particularly given Gus might not play as a mid and Clarry might not be avaibalie for a chunk of the season. 

    Having a bull like Riv in the middle will also give them more flexibility to use Tracc forward.

    With Gus out of action for most of the Pies final and all of the Blues final, they needed tracc's grunt in the midfield, reducing their ability to throw him forward.

    We saw how influential tracc was playing as a 50 50 mid/ forward and after losing Melk, and then JVR for the blues game i think not being able to have trac play the same mix in the finals was big factor in our losses.

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  6. 2 hours ago, Dannyz said:

    Have been told Howes is ready to impact in the back half. 

    I like this, as as i noted yesterday if Howes playing in defence he could take Mcvee's spot at HB allowing judd to move onto the ball, or perhaps onto the wing.

    But i could also see both playing in defence, with Howes playing the lock down role Judd played last year (he's  tall enough to cover the tricky medium forwards like McCarthy).

    This would free up McVee to play a more aggressive, offensive role higher up the ground in the mould of kitty Coleman or Nick Daicos.  

    Wherer that would leave Bowser and Salo i'm not too sure - one would have to come out of the back half in that scenario you'd think. 

    I know there has been some talk of Salo moving on ball, but personally i cant see it. He is hard at it and strong enough to play an inside mid role, particularly with his fast hands and ability to hit short targets by foot under pressure.

    But i agree with Fat Tony that his lack of pace would be an issue as a mid. It wouldn't have been an issue a few years ago but teams with slow midfields can get caught out now, particularly defensively -  the Lions being an example   

    I wonder if Bowser could be an on ball option? He also could be an inside mid option as like salo he is hard at it and an excllent kick. But unlike salo he quick of the mark. 

    Bowser wasn't a defender as a junior, but i can't recall what his main role/position was. Was he a mid?

     

    • Like 5
  7. 23 minutes ago, Cheap Seats said:

    Have we dropped nibbler from the whippin boy list?

    Could a premiership player who finishes 6th in a a club's best and fairest, after being top ten the previous year, and who has barely mised a game in five seasons, reasonably be considered a whipping boy?

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  8. 23 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

    In Regards to Taj I think this statement is most valid. There is no clearly defined position or role for him at the moment. I remember ANB (the old #1 whipping boy) coming in as a pure midfielder and playing consistently there at Casey, unable to really break into the side. Then ANB was able to find a niche as the high half forward role and really own it. I hope Taj can find his niche and do the same!

    Agree.

    I think the wing is his best shot, which means getting past Langers or Hunter (or one them moving to a different role). 

    And Howes is also probably in competition for the wing spot, though he could also play at HBF (perhaps taking  Mcvee's spot at HB allowing judd to move onto the ball).

    On whipping boys status i think the front runners are (in order) Spargs, TMac and Benny Brown - with a watch on Fullerton if he finds his way into the ones.

    Maybe Laurie too if he keeps getting games when he makes little impact. 

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  9. 26 minutes ago, Ollie fan said:

    "Super professional, excellent tank, preparedness to work hard, disciplined, lacks X factor" - are you talking about Taj or his dad?

    What I am trying to say is: that is exactly what his dad was like, and he won a Brownlow......

    True nuff.

     

    • Haha 1
  10. 59 minutes ago, Webber said:

    Very confidently tipping Taj to be the break-out player of 2024. Underrated on here, but has all the tricks, along with an uber-professional attitude. Will exponentially improve with experience. 
     

    (also tipping he’ll be a whipping boy until his value becomes undeniable). 

    Nah, can't see him becoming a whipping boy.

    As self appointed DL defender of whipping boys, i don't think he is made of the right stuff to be be a fully fledged whipping boy.

    For a start he has to get a regular spot in the ones so he can be accused of taking the spot of a player deemed more worthy. And he is the son of a gun, so there is too much good will for him to cop it.

    But on a serious note, I hope you prove to be correct Webber but i'm a bit more ambivalent about his chances of taking his game to another level and being a regular in the ones.  

    I agree he is super professional (which i think can be a really underrated attribute - though not by coaches and teammates), but i'm not sure he has 'all the tricks' or the x factor. 

    That said i think what he does has is an excellent tank, covers the ground well and is developing into a terrific athlete - attributes that have never been more important and will only continue to grow in importance.

    And maybe i under value his skills because he is so disciplined and eschews flair.

    I think his preparedness to work hard means he will further build his tank and become an even better athlete, which will give him an edge over many teammates and an excellent chance of cementing a best 22 spot.   

    And as Gator noted, and as you imply, he is super coachable and we know Goody rewards players who play their assigned role and follow instructions. 

    • Like 10
  11. 2 hours ago, Gator said:

    One thing Woewodin isn't is slow.  He was second in the 20 metre sprint at the Draft Combine with a time under 2.9 seconds.

    20m Sprint Result (seconds)

    Rank Result (seconds) Name
    1 2.845 Harvey Harrison
    2 2.898 Taj Woewodin

    That surprises me a bit i have to admit. But only in the sense that he is quick over the first 20 meters as i've always thought his cruising speed is pretty quick. Good combo.

    Do you see Woey making it Gator?

    Or perhaps a better question is do you think he has good upside?

    (i'm not sure myself). 

    • Like 1
  12. 3 hours ago, Young Blood said:

    Interesting Gus was training with the backs but might be a factor of reducing the physically contested stuff as much as possible still easing him back in. 

    I like Gus back.

    I'm not sure about Rivers going into he middle, in large part because as you note he doesn't have much experience there.

    But if they are thinking about Rivers playing some time in the middle (or perhaps even Mcvee), Gus as a sweeper down back gives them some flexibility to pull that rein. 

    • Like 6
  13. 3 hours ago, kev martin said:

    Laurie is training predominantly as a forward. 

    I would see him as a mid, as he works very well in congested areas.

    Laurie is training predominantly as a forward.

    That's interesting. Makes sense i guess.

    But with Spargs  looking to cement his spot and the Kolt and Sestan (and to a lesser extent McAdam, who i see vying for melk's role) both hoping to come into the forward line as smalls/mediums there's a bit of competition for a spot.

    I would see him as a mid, as he works very well in congested areas.

    Agree. I reckon inside mid is his go.

    As you note, good in congestion, has a low centre of gravity, good hands in tight and good kicking skills. 

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  14. 1 hour ago, kev martin said:

    Laurie continues to develop, looks like a big improver, though may have to get a break so as to claim a spot. Got a feeling if given a chance he will perform.

    Perhaps i'm misremembering, but my recollection is Laurie predominantly played as a mid at Casey last season.

    As i wrote on DL at the time i was really, really surprised he came in to play half forward late in the season instead of Spargs.

    Maybe he ends up fighting with Spargs for a spot in the forward line. But whilst his kicking skills would be handy up forward in terms of hitting leading targets etc he doesn't look a natural forward to me.

    Kev, if Laurie cements a spot in the ones what position do you see him playing?

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  15. 2 hours ago, sue said:

    This is good, and i think well over due - ie the club coming out and putting Clarry 'on extended leave to deal with his ongoing health issues'. 

    Without getting into the specifics of his issues and what is happening for Clarry the absolute right approach by the club is taking a health focused approach - for Clarry, the team and fans. 

    Making it clear he is on extended leave takes some of the pressure off, allows fans to recalibrate and come to terms with the likelihood we won't see him in the team for a while.

    But perhaps even more importantly it means the rest of the team can focus on their own preparation without some of the fugazi.

    Easy to forget i reckon how stressful and unhelpful this has all been on his teammates, particularly those who have been long term mates such as tracc and Salo.  

    Personally i'm approaching the situation like Clarry had an ACL last season. He's out, he's not coming anytime soon and it's not clear how long it will be before he does come back. 

    I'm sending positive vibes Clarry's way and wish him nothing but the best. 

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  16. On 10/01/2024 at 15:06, Roost it far said:

    He's clearly giving himself an opportunity to succeed. It'd be a great story if he debuted this year. 

    Goody has track record of some left field selection of young, unheralded players. Bowser and Mcveee being two such examples (none other immediately come to mind, but i feel like i'm missing some).

    So, Sestan will know that if he does the work he has shot. And personally i think a good one because we could really do with his kicking skills an general smarts. 

    Probably not really left field but i reckon Howes and Woey are both massive chances to be in the round one team.

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  17. On 07/01/2024 at 17:16, Roost it far said:

    Sestan looks to have lost substantial weight. Could he be the smoky?

    I reckon he could.

    Sestan has some real x factor about him and like Mcvee, who is another Taylor special, his point of different is his foot skills. But like Mcvee needs an AFL tank and body - which he looks like he is working on.  

    Sestan has the ability to kick those across the body on the 45 kicks that players like Daniel, Miers, Guthrie, Crisp and Nick Daicos are so good at hitting.

    With all teams employing zones and and all team defence having players with that skill has become increasingly important to cut through congestion and find free players. 

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  18. 42 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Every year since 2015 a team has jumped from outside the top 8 to finish top 4 the following year (after the home and away season).

    It’s absolutely likely someone will come from nowhere to finish top 4 this year.

    Fair call.

    The Crows would be the obvious team that could make that jump. 

     

     

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  19. 2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

    Our 3 most important players are Petracca, Gawn and May.......I'm in no way saying your 3 aren't important but lose Petracca, Gawn and or May and we're done. 

    I'm not sure May is one of our three most important players as we have players, for example Disco, Petty and Tmac, who could, to some degree, cover his role. But i could easily be persuaded. Def a super, super important player for us. 

    We have no such player to cover maxy who i think is out most important player by a mile. In fact i think maxy is more important to our premiership chances than other player in the AFL to their team premiership chances. 

    To be honest our reliance on Maxy has always worried me from the perspective of risk management - ie we lose him we are xx%%#&&.

    Agree tracc is next - in large part because his combination of power, skill, raw ability and positional flexibility cannot be covered. 

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  20. 16 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

    Tx Binners.

    I just checked Tab and your not far from the mark.

    1.55 to make finals.

    Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to be final four at $3.

    Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to win flag at $ 9.

    Ta.

    In punting parlance, on my assessment $3 for the dees to to make the top 4 is overs.

    And $3 for the blues to make top 4 is unders.

    And on my assessment $9 for the dees to win the flag is well and truly overs.

    I would have us as second favorites, behind the Pies, to the the win the flag at $6.50.

    By the by i think we will win the flag. 

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  21. 2 hours ago, praha said:

    Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set.

    In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

    100% agree. 

    Goody has said from the get go that the aim is to build a team that is contention for a flag for many  many years. And that is exactly what they have done. 

    To be objective as possible I apply a racing punters lens to the question of how we'll go next season.

    In punting the key data point is of  course form - of each individual horse in isolation, and more importantly how the form of each horse compares with its competitors.

    In doing form, (good) punters look at historical form and recent form. 

    Applying a similar lens to the next afl season then these are the pertinent facts (im conceptualising the 2024 season as a Group one WFA classic like say a cox plate).

    Using the last three seasons as a  reference point for historical form to assess the chances of the dees finishing top 4:

    - the dees have finished top 4 three times

    - the dees have won one flag 

    - that is the best 'form' of any team over that period

    - the pies are next best with two top 4 finishes and one flag

    - next best is the lions with 3 top 4 finishes and one GF appearance 

    - swans and port can argue over next best 

    So, over three seasons the best three teams based on their records are  in order, the dees, pies and lions. In horse racing parlance they are top 3 rated teams

    Looking at recent form (last season):

    - after very strong win loss records in the regular season the pies won the flag and the lions made the gf. They were the two best teams in 2023. 

    - against the two best teams in the 2023 the dees went 50 50 against both, including a narrow loss against the premiers in the QF

    - so if for instance you really rate the pies, on form it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees

    What about up and comers? In racing there's of course always the possibility of a new star coming along and usurping the current class horses. Are there any such contenders in the AFL?

    The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare.

    That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender

    Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4.

    Can one of the blues, swans, giants or saints make the top 4? Absolutely.

    And port can stay in the top 4 too of course (and I think will).

    But applying my form equation none of those teams' record over the last three season makes for a compelling argument.

    And looking at last season's form only the blues and giants make a strong case for taking the next step and finishing top 4.

    On the dees key competitors I largely agree with Little Goffy's excellent assessment.

    I really rate the giants and hard to argue with the blues form. So both a chance for a top 4 finish. I can't see swans or saints making it

    Port finished top 4 and I think if Hinkley can implement a modern defensive system will do so again. 

    Another factor to consider is class. In both horse racing and footy class is more subjective than form (on form the record is the record(.

    Personally i would argue we have the best list in the AFL (lions, port, pies, giants next).

    And i also think we have the most balanced list of say the top 10 teams in terms of the balance and spread of age and experience (pies, port, giants next).

    So in totality what does that mean from a punters form perspective?

    The dees are very likely to make the top 4, as are the lions and pies. 

    The dees are very unlikely to miss the 8.

    I haven't looked at the current betting markets for top 4 and top 8 They would have nothing in the pools and futures betting is a mug's game (they may not even have them up yet).

    But they would be the most accurate assessment as the prices are set by the professional analysts bookmakers employ and are yet to be influenced by the market (ie punters betting).

    If I was to set a market/price for the dees it would be:

    Top 4 finish: $2.50 

    Top 8 finish: $1.40 (winx says hello)

    • Like 5
  22. 1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

    as someone who has worked in digital comms, product, and marketing for 20 years i find our actual content produced is routinely rote but sufficient given our obvious scarce resources and investment in it

    what i can't allow is the routine errors - players names spelled incorrectly, information shared being wrong, content being uploaded and then deleted due to it being riddled with errors, etc. etc.

    it's just the lack of attention to de(e)tail that really irritates me

    Don't look at the player bios on the MFC website then. I wanted to see how many games sparrow had played and so as logic would suggest went to the MFC website player info section.

    Couldn't believe it - the bio for all players except newbies is as per the end of the 2021 season (i'm not sure about the stats). I mean that is is amateur hour stuff. Surely up to date info about all players is the minimum fan might expect from an AFL club.

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