binman
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Posts posted by binman
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34 minutes ago, Jjrogan said: Not going to disagree with the basic premise that pressure is important but if you want a deep dive...
First 7 games of the years, yes pressure wins (losses) were correlated with results. However, against wc, hawks, brisbane and sydney (tie) the results were actually inversely correlated with pressure. No question if you have a significant drop off you leave yourself very open to be scored. But if its 50/50 which a lot games are its actually only mildly significant based on our results. (Lets call it a 66 percent hit rate)
As a comparison, some old fashion metrics, inside 50s and marks inside 50s.
For us inside 50s we have only lost the inside 50s twice all year (hawks and gc). Inside 50s mean nothing for us sadly.
Marks inside 50, we have won 5 times resulting in 4 wins. Lost 7 times for 6 losses So 10 out 12 games 'hit' rate.
No doubt one can argue pressure will help win the marks inside 50. Imo our real deficiency relative to the rest of the comp is catching the darn thing near goal and putting it thru the middle. Anyway those are the numbers.
That's the numbers for this season, fir us but you'rer right its not a direct correlation of course - though I will note that in the four wins you highlight the gap in pressure rating was marginal in three as you note the swans game tied).
And I'd also note 66% hit rate is statistically significant.
I suspect if the analysis was say 10 pressure points differential or would be close to 100%.
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5 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said: I'm wondering if with other fwds firing, it would take the pressure of Roo so as he can maybe just enjoy himself out there and be less anxious about being our \main scorer.
That's a good point. He has said he want to be a leader and for much of the ladtb2 years has been our best key forward.
Perhaps he puts a bit too much pressure on himself and as you say if he doesn't feel he has to the man, so to speak, up forward he can play with a bot more freedom.
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15 minutes ago, mauriesy said: However, 12 of the top 15 goalkickers for 2025 are still tall. Only Jamie Elliott, Jack Higgins and Ben Long are smaller forwards in the top-15 list.
What is interesting is how accurate the top 15 are.
Name
Team
Games
Goals
Behinds
Score
Marks
Shots
%
Last Game
12
38
14
242
70
52
73.1
12
33
16
214
63
49
67.3
11
32
13
205
36
45
71.1
9
30
6
186
48
36
83.3
12
29
9
183
26
38
76.3
11
28
5
173
56
33
84.8
2 v Sydney, Round 12
12
27
15
177
68
42
64.3
2 v Sydney, Round 12
10
26
15
171
58
41
63.4
10
24
15
159
62
39
61.5
3 v GWS, Round 11
11
24
11
155
45
35
68.6
13
24
8
152
55
32
75.0
11
24
18
162
60
42
57.1
12
23
11
149
62
34
67.6
10
23
13
151
50
36
63.9
10
22
11
143
42
33
66.7
Well Cameron, who whilst tall, does not play as a tradional key tall forward, or rarely does. He's really more a flanker. Nealeis the Cats key forward.
Meaning neither top 2 players in the coleman are key forward.
But, sure key talls are still important. And most of that list are key forwards.
But look at the average goals per game.
King is the leading goal scorer amongst the tall forwards.
At his current average, King will kick 61 goals for the home and away season.
Hogan won the coleman last year with 69.
And as i said neither the the pies or lions, one and two on the ladder, have a dominant key forward.
The crows are third and do have dominant key forwards, so are an outlier. But the key is still their fadt ball movement.
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8 minutes ago, DiscoStu17 said: AFL at the elite level has evolved into something different and separate from the U 18 version.
Elite key forwards are drafted as they can win 1-1 contests, which rarely happen at the elite level. Instead, they need to be able to compete against at least 2. Therefore, they need to be bigger, or a different type of player.
Of course it’s due to the defensive structures all teams employ, but we need to get smarter when trying to score.
Other teams are coming up with better tactics to separate the defence – Collingwood, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast.
Everyone else seems to be doing versions of these, or banging their head against the wall in the time honoured fashion.
We are doing that much better (ie sepeatimf decences) much better this year, certainly in our wins.
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Edited by binman
9 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said: our media dept's attention to detail is consistently inconsistent
We have a media department?
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1 hour ago, Whispering_Jack said: Weird how taj is the only player who's right up is not in italics - code of some sort (jokes btw)?
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Edited by binman
21 minutes ago, Wells 11 said: Do you think this is why JVR is so at sea in 2025?
It's a factor.
I think a related challenge for jvr is, as ive noted in other posts, two of the key metrics for tall forwards is ensuring their opponent doesn't take intercept marks and bringing the ball to ground so the smalls and mediums can go to work.
By definition that involves lots of tight, shoulder to shoulder battles which can't be easy for a young key forward.
But honestly I think the main challenge for JVR is that he is still young, particularly for a key forward.
They're cliches because they're true - key tall take longer to get to their peak than other players and improvement is not linear.
For proof of that just look at JVRs peers, ie other young key forwards - JUH, Amiss, Logan McDonald, Amartey, Treacy, Philthorp, Neale, Cadman.
All have had periods with big dips in their performances.
Treacy is a good comparison to JVR. He's been terrific this year, after a good 2024. But he's had his dips too - and its work noting thst he's almost a year older than JVR.
JVR is a gun and IMO will be back soon playing elite footy for the dees.
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Edited by binman
9 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said: Watching the Hawks last night gave me a bit of comfort as it showed that if a team brings the pressure they can match it with anyone. Hawthorn has been well down for a number of weeks now (the Suns game probably the outlier) but against the Dogs their pressure and discipline was formidable.
Of all stats, pressure rating is now by far and away the most reliable indicator in terms of the correlation between winning that stat and winning a game.
The real challenge for teams is its simply not possible to bring elite pressure for more than say 3 or 4 weeks in a row. Tops.
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10 hours ago, DubDee said: Remember when Naughton was the best young fwd in the league?
What has happened? doesn’t even mark much anymore
It's interesting actually, for all the talk about our need for a gun forward, the reality is in 202, as Daniel Hoyne often notes, the key is what happens with the ball (ie ball movement from the back half, kicking skills, ability to hit targets indside 50 and kicking skills of half back flanks, mids and wingers) not ahead of it.
That's to say gun tall forwards are no longer critical in the way they were 10 years ago.
Carlton is the obvious example as they have arguably two of the best key forwards in the AFL and they can't score.
In contrast the two best sides atm, the pies and the lions, don't have a dominant key tall (though Miochek whilst not that tall plays tall - a terrific player).
It's just so hard now for key forwards to take contested marks inside 50 and they rarely get clear leading lanes that players like Dunstall used to such great effect.
In terms of forwards, its hard to argue that the most important players are now small to medium forward amd mid/forwards like Elliot, Bailey, Koz, Papley etc etc.
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17 hours ago, Brownie said: Methamphetamine and no afternoon nap is not a good combo
Depends on the circumstances.
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Just now, binman said: Can't wait
2 hours ago, DiscoStu17 said: Looks like it might be a bit wet. But the surface is good, like all the ovals these days. It should be a good test for Casey. I still think that they can win by 10+ goals against pretty much anyone if they don’t turn the bloody thing over. So keep watch for overuse of handball in the rain.
I was def going and really looking forward to it (i live in the Southwest, so it's practically a home game) - but i just realised i have to wash my hair.
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3 minutes ago, The Cult of Disco Turner said: I have no idea whether the loading stuff is true or not. I joined the loading cult because the leader was convincing and it provides me some small amount of hope/cope. Plus they give out free snacks at our weekly cult meetings.
My little joke at the loading cult meetings, one fellow cult members roll their eyes at, is - 'here we go, enjoy some carb loading with these delicious pastries'
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2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said: I reckon Disco would be a good matchup for Elliott as he can seriously jump for marks that guy.
Agree. And disco has the wheels to go with Eliot on the lead
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Edited by binman
1 hour ago, KC from Casey said: The game is being played on Saturday night at 7.10pm at Mission Whitten Oval in Barkly Street, Footscray ... of course.
Can't wait
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13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said: Frigging Geelong trading up and pinching Holmes from us 😔
Holmes and Bowey from the covid draft would've been a ridiculous haul from Taylor.
Would loves to have landed Holmes. Terrific footballer.
And I know it ain't gonna happen, but jeez how good would it be to land Wanganeen-Milera foe next season. He is exactly what we need, though to be fair every team would be improved of he joined them.
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Edited by binman
9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said: I'm not saying you're wrong as teams definitely load. But don't you think it would be dumb to load after starting 0-5 with no room for error? In previous seasons you've said (and I agree) that getting off to a good start (10-0 in 2021/22) banked those wins early allowing us the luxury of loading midseason to come home with a head of steam and cherry ripe for September. That all goes out the window when you start 0-5 and need to win those midseason games to be in with a shot of appearing in September.
Loading won't help if we're running on top of the ground while the players are in Europe/Bali.
Loading could explain the drop in pressure. It could also explain the failure to cover the Saints transition, the slipped/ineffective tackles and yes the goal kicking (as tired legs struggle to kick straight). But if that's what it was I would seriously have to question the logic of doing it when we need all the wins we can get.
Yep, all good points.
And what I like about them is the focus is, for the sake of argument assuming our clear dead legged performance was as a result of loading, questioning the logic of doing so.
Given how big an impact it has on our fortunes, our high performance program and strategy should be questioned, should be critiqued.
I question our ability to perform when we are fatigued and wonder to what extent mental preparedness plays a part. There's no excuse for not being switched on at the start if the game and it didn't link like we were.
Let's say I'm right, and I think I am (your point about not covering their spread is an excellent one - we have been the team spreading opponents of late, Lyon clearly knew we were sluggish and he looked to exploit that), my thoughts about your reasonable question about not changing tack because of our 0-5 start are:
What would the consequences be of changing a complex, carefully calibrated program halfway thru the season (different scenario because they had banked wins, but when the pies played freo off a five day break they had a lot of injuries yet stuck with their plan to rest key senior players, clearly impacting their chances of winning. When asked about that decision Mcrae said they had a plan created in the preseason and stuck with that plan - it's about the war not the battle)
If we are not in optimal shape against the pies they will shred us - after two peak games (the lions, then swans) would we be able to have yet another against the Saints and then peak again and be in optimal shape against the pies?
How important is it we play really well next Monday - one of only two guaranteed marquee games we have each season, one we have played poorly in in recent times, huge TV audience and a home game go boot
What is impact on the high-performance program and planning of having to play Port, in Adelaide Oval, off on a six-day break after the Pies games (i'd argue it's not really possible, particularly for teams with so many young players in it, to be 'up' for five games straight (and we were up and about against the hawks too)
The bye is the recovery period for pre bye loading - given we have the bye after the Port game we have to load at some point ahead of the bye and given we had perhaps given we had a seven daybreak into the Saints and an eight day break into the Pies perhaps doing that work ahead of the saint's game made more sense than comprising our performance against the Pies and Port (potentially an 8 point game given they are more likely to be make finals than the Saints
That would be a calculated gamble, but that's part of the equation no doubt in the preseason planning process - and really even fatigued we should have beaten the Saints given it's not as if they played out of their skins
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1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said: I only have pressure rating data since the start of 2023 (only missing rounds 4 & 6 2023) and only for Melbourne and their opponent.
Firstly, Melbourne's average pressure this season is lower than the last two seasons, but it's marginally higher than our opponents.
Melbourne's average pressure by season
Season
For
Agn
2023
181.4
183.5
2024
178.6
180.4
2025
175.9
175.4
Melbourne's best quarter this season is the third with an average of 182.3 (opponent 175.6) and worst is the fourth with an average of 170.7 (opponent 175.0) - which probably wouldn't surprise.
Apologies for the formatting, but here are the pressure ratings per game (For | Against | Differential). I have highlighted Melbourne's worst games in terms of pressure differential (-10 or worse) OR absolute pressure (175 or worse). It was clearly worse around the byes last year but not as clear in 2023.
2023
R1: 188 | 169 | +19
R2: 187 | 177 | +10
R3: 170 | 168 | +2
R5: 174 | 191 | -17
R7: 169 | 163 | +6
R8: 184 | 177 | +7
R9: 184 | 175 | +9
R10: 194 | 205 | -11
R11: 185 | 198 | -13
R12: 170 | 170 | +0
R13: 183 | 186 | -3
R14: BYE
R15: 196 | 196 | +0
R16: 186 | 187 | -1
R17: 172 | 175 | -3
R18: 168 | 180 | -12
R19: 183 | 191 | -8
R20: 181 | 183 | -2
R21: 175 | 182 | -7
R22: 200 | 206 | -6
R23: 180 | 163 | +17
R24: 187 | 197 | -10
QF: 178 | 192 | -14
SF: 178 | 189 | -11
2024
R0: 182 | 190 | -8
R1: 177 | 162 | +15
R2: 189 | 172 | +17
R3: 182 | 189 | -7
R4: 190 | 182 | +8
R5: 168 | 201 | -33
R7: 170 | 171 | -1
R8: 176 | 170 | +6
R9: 202 | 194 | +8
R10: 184 | 189 | -5
R11: 174 | 160 | +14
R12: 175 | 181 | -6
R13: 164 | 187 | -23
R14: BYE
R15: 189 | 195 | -6
R16: 172 | 190 | -18
R17: 191 | 168 | +23
R18: 176 | 190 | -14
R19: 173 | 154 | +19
R20: 180 | 189 | -9
R21: 172 | 176 | -4
R22: 179 | 186 | -7
R23: 181 | 175 | +6
R24: 161 | 178 | -17
2025
R1: 189 | 190 | -1
R2: 172 | 176 | -4
R3: 174 | 175 | -1
R4: 166 | 181 | -15
R5: 164 | 178 | -14
R6: 187 | 164 | +23
R7: 193 | 161 | +32
R8: 173 | 182 | -9
R9: 176 | 172 | +4
R10: 165 | 169 | -4
R11: 190 | 190 | +0
R12: 162 | 167 | -5
Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Makes for fascinating reading
It makes sense that our average pressure rating is a bit lower this year than than previous years given shift to a more transition focused game.
Just a note on 2024 - we also had a bye in round 6 (because we played the stupid OR).
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1 minute ago, Redleg said: If consistent then one as no concussion.
Think Callum Mills pleasing Spargo for one week.
Good thing he didn't annoy spargs then.
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Edited by binman
My take.
I know not everyone agrees with me (or perhaps do, to some degree, but think i over egg the pudding) about the impact of loading.
But i'd make three points:
One, as i have noted for the last 4-5 seasons on Demonland, EVERY year during this phase of the season (ie the mid-season byes period) there are ALWAYS a huge number of anomalous results. This is a fact.
And the results are not just upset wins; there's also heaps of weird margins (eg massive blowouts, games that are much closer than the bookies have pegged it at etc). For example, in the GWS v Tigers' game the Tiger's line was +45 points. Which means the punters thought that GWS would win that game by nearly 8 goals. The tigers lost by 3 points, covering their line by a massive 42 points.
I have zero doubt the anomalous results are in large part are a function of where teams are at with their high-performance program.
To be clear I'm not arguing the high-performance programs are the only reason for this long-standing clear pattern of anomalous results in the middle of the year. But it is without doubt a significant factor, one that is all but completely ignored by media and fans alike.
Two, i think our performance against the Saints was impacted by us loading. And I'm not being smart after the fact.
In a pre-game post on DL arguing i thought we were too short in the betting and that it was the very definition of a danger game i noted one of the 6 reasons for this opinion was:
'I wonder if our high-performance program is geared towards being in optimal shape on Kings birthday at the potential expense of this game (ie bigger block of training into this game then taking advantage of the 8-day break to taper into the pies game)'
Following up to a comment by Bring Back Powell that he hopes I'm wrong because he'd rather we prioritized the game we have a better chance of winning, for risk of losing both games, i responded that i can see that logic, but that:
'I just wonder, given how poorly we have played in the Queens, Kings birthday game in the last few years (ironically, in large part because, IMO, we have been loading at this point in previous seasons) if the idea might be to be cherry ripe for the game.'
I'm convinced that proved to be the case, ie we took a calculated risk and did a big block of training ahead of this game, with the goal of optimizing our condition for the Pies game, and our performance suffered as a result.
My final point is in regard to the push back i often get when raising this topic - if all teams do it how come the Pies (or insert other top teams) don't drop games they should not lose whereas we do.
My answer is that it is a very good question, and that the answer includes factors such as having too many poor kicks and in previous years having a game plan more dependent on pressure than other teams (pressure is the thing that most noticeably drops off under the fatigue of loading*).
But also, that it's reasonable to question our mental resilience (what is leading teams doing?), planning and coaching. I would note, however, that the top teams DO lose matches during this phase of the year.
*Pressure is by the best measure of fatigue, with contested possessions second. They said on the fox coverage that:
Our last quarter pressure rating was the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody
The average for the game the fifth lowest EVER under goody
I suspect that the majority of our top 10 worst pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of our mid-season bye. @WheeloRatings do you have access to our historical pressure rating data?
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Edited by binman
14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said: @WheeloRatings can you please contextualise those numbers? How does our 162 rank this year and under Goodwin? And what about the fourth quarter 132?
They said on the fox coverage that:
our lastquarter pressure rating wasr the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody
The average for the game the fith lowest under goody
By the by, I suspect that the majority of top 10 pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of of our mid season bye.
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15 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said: full analysis expected
interesting watching kolt around the edges of the goals for el jefe and rick - he celebrates the players who were the goal assists and then he gets EVERYONE around mentha for his first goal for casey
his attitude as a team player is top notch
His body language and energy had been tp notch on the last 2 games.
He'll be back in the ones soon enough.
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NON-MFC: Round 13
in Melbourne Demons
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Edited by binman
At least your pain was soothed.
Not mine - backed lions for a win (though more at the line, so the pain wasn't too bad - but jeez, kicking the bloody goal lions!)