binman

3 minutes ago, The Cult of Disco Turner said:

I have no idea whether the loading stuff is true or not. I joined the loading cult because the leader was convincing and it provides me some small amount of hope/cope. Plus they give out free snacks at our weekly cult meetings.

My little joke at the loading cult meetings, one fellow cult members roll their eyes at, is - 'here we go, enjoy some carb loading with these delicious pastries'

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I reckon Disco would be a good matchup for Elliott as he can seriously jump for marks that guy.

Agree. And disco has the wheels to go with Eliot on the lead

1 hour ago, KC from Casey said:

The game is being played on Saturday night at 7.10pm at Mission Whitten Oval in Barkly Street, Footscray ... of course.

Can't wait

13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Frigging Geelong trading up and pinching Holmes from us 😔

Holmes and Bowey from the covid draft would've been a ridiculous haul from Taylor.

Would loves to have landed Holmes. Terrific footballer.

And I know it ain't gonna happen, but jeez how good would it be to land Wanganeen-Milera foe next season. He is exactly what we need, though to be fair every team would be improved of he joined them.

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm not saying you're wrong as teams definitely load. But don't you think it would be dumb to load after starting 0-5 with no room for error? In previous seasons you've said (and I agree) that getting off to a good start (10-0 in 2021/22) banked those wins early allowing us the luxury of loading midseason to come home with a head of steam and cherry ripe for September. That all goes out the window when you start 0-5 and need to win those midseason games to be in with a shot of appearing in September.

Loading won't help if we're running on top of the ground while the players are in Europe/Bali.

Loading could explain the drop in pressure. It could also explain the failure to cover the Saints transition, the slipped/ineffective tackles and yes the goal kicking (as tired legs struggle to kick straight). But if that's what it was I would seriously have to question the logic of doing it when we need all the wins we can get.

Yep, all good points.

And what I like about them is the focus is, for the sake of argument assuming our clear dead legged performance was as a result of loading, questioning the logic of doing so.

Given how big an impact it has on our fortunes, our high performance program and strategy should be questioned, should be critiqued.

I question our ability to perform when we are fatigued and wonder to what extent mental preparedness plays a part. There's no excuse for not being switched on at the start if the game and it didn't link like we were.

Let's say I'm right, and I think I am (your point about not covering their spread is an excellent one - we have been the team spreading opponents of late, Lyon clearly knew we were sluggish and he looked to exploit that), my thoughts about your reasonable question about not changing tack because of our 0-5 start are:

• What would the consequences be of changing a complex, carefully calibrated program halfway thru the season (different scenario because they had banked wins, but when the pies played freo off a five day break they had a lot of injuries yet stuck with their plan to rest key senior players, clearly impacting their chances of winning. When asked about that decision Mcrae said they had a plan created in the preseason and stuck with that plan - it's about the war not the battle)

• If we are not in optimal shape against the pies they will shred us - after two peak games (the lions, then swans) would we be able to have yet another against the Saints and then peak again and be in optimal shape against the pies?

• How important is it we play really well next Monday - one of only two guaranteed marquee games we have each season, one we have played poorly in in recent times, huge TV audience and a home game go boot

• What is impact on the high-performance program and planning of having to play Port, in Adelaide Oval, off on a six-day break after the Pies games (i'd argue it's not really possible, particularly for teams with so many young players in it, to be 'up' for five games straight (and we were up and about against the hawks too)

• The bye is the recovery period for pre bye loading - given we have the bye after the Port game we have to load at some point ahead of the bye and given we had perhaps given we had a seven daybreak into the Saints and an eight day break into the Pies perhaps doing that work ahead of the saint's game made more sense than comprising our performance against the Pies and Port (potentially an 8 point game given they are more likely to be make finals than the Saints

• That would be a calculated gamble, but that's part of the equation no doubt in the preseason planning process - and really even fatigued we should have beaten the Saints given it's not as if they played out of their skins

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

Begs the question.... are we fit enough??

Sung to the tune of:

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

I only have pressure rating data since the start of 2023 (only missing rounds 4 & 6 2023) and only for Melbourne and their opponent.

Firstly, Melbourne's average pressure this season is lower than the last two seasons, but it's marginally higher than our opponents.

Melbourne's average pressure by season

Season	For	Agn
2023	181.4	183.5
2024	178.6	180.4
2025	175.9	175.4

Melbourne's best quarter this season is the third with an average of 182.3 (opponent 175.6) and worst is the fourth with an average of 170.7 (opponent 175.0) - which probably wouldn't surprise.

Apologies for the formatting, but here are the pressure ratings per game (For | Against | Differential). I have highlighted Melbourne's worst games in terms of pressure differential (-10 or worse) OR absolute pressure (175 or worse). It was clearly worse around the byes last year but not as clear in 2023.

2023

R1: 188 | 169 | +19

R2: 187 | 177 | +10

R3: 170 | 168 | +2

R5: 174 | 191 | -17

R7: 169 | 163 | +6

R8: 184 | 177 | +7

R9: 184 | 175 | +9

R10: 194 | 205 | -11

R11: 185 | 198 | -13

R12: 170 | 170 | +0

R13: 183 | 186 | -3

R14: BYE

R15: 196 | 196 | +0

R16: 186 | 187 | -1

R17: 172 | 175 | -3

R18: 168 | 180 | -12

R19: 183 | 191 | -8

R20: 181 | 183 | -2

R21: 175 | 182 | -7

R22: 200 | 206 | -6

R23: 180 | 163 | +17

R24: 187 | 197 | -10

QF: 178 | 192 | -14

SF: 178 | 189 | -11

2024

R0: 182 | 190 | -8

R1: 177 | 162 | +15

R2: 189 | 172 | +17

R3: 182 | 189 | -7

R4: 190 | 182 | +8

R5: 168 | 201 | -33

R7: 170 | 171 | -1

R8: 176 | 170 | +6

R9: 202 | 194 | +8

R10: 184 | 189 | -5

R11: 174 | 160 | +14

R12: 175 | 181 | -6

R13: 164 | 187 | -23

R14: BYE

R15: 189 | 195 | -6

R16: 172 | 190 | -18

R17: 191 | 168 | +23

R18: 176 | 190 | -14

R19: 173 | 154 | +19

R20: 180 | 189 | -9

R21: 172 | 176 | -4

R22: 179 | 186 | -7

R23: 181 | 175 | +6

R24: 161 | 178 | -17

2025

R1: 189 | 190 | -1

R2: 172 | 176 | -4

R3: 174 | 175 | -1

R4: 166 | 181 | -15

R5: 164 | 178 | -14

R6: 187 | 164 | +23

R7: 193 | 161 | +32

R8: 173 | 182 | -9

R9: 176 | 172 | +4

R10: 165 | 169 | -4

R11: 190 | 190 | +0

R12: 162 | 167 | -5

Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Makes for fascinating reading

It makes sense that our average pressure rating is a bit lower this year than than previous years given shift to a more transition focused game.

Just a note on 2024 - we also had a bye in round 6 (because we played the stupid OR).

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

If consistent then one as no concussion.

Think Callum Mills pleasing Spargo for one week.

Good thing he didn't annoy spargs then.

My take.

I know not everyone agrees with me (or perhaps do, to some degree, but think i over egg the pudding) about the impact of loading.

But i'd make three points:

One, as i have noted for the last 4-5 seasons on Demonland, EVERY year during this phase of the season (ie the mid-season byes period) there are ALWAYS a huge number of anomalous results. This is a fact.

And the results are not just upset wins; there's also heaps of weird margins (eg massive blowouts, games that are much closer than the bookies have pegged it at etc). For example, in the GWS v Tigers' game the Tiger's line was +45 points. Which means the punters thought that GWS would win that game by nearly 8 goals. The tigers lost by 3 points, covering their line by a massive 42 points.

I have zero doubt the anomalous results are in large part are a function of where teams are at with their high-performance program.

To be clear I'm not arguing the high-performance programs are the only reason for this long-standing clear pattern of anomalous results in the middle of the year. But it is without doubt a significant factor, one that is all but completely ignored by media and fans alike.

Two, i think our performance against the Saints was impacted by us loading. And I'm not being smart after the fact.

In a pre-game post on DL arguing i thought we were too short in the betting and that it was the very definition of a danger game i noted one of the 6 reasons for this opinion was:

• 'I wonder if our high-performance program is geared towards being in optimal shape on Kings birthday at the potential expense of this game (ie bigger block of training into this game then taking advantage of the 8-day break to taper into the pies game)'

Following up to a comment by Bring Back Powell that he hopes I'm wrong because he'd rather we prioritized the game we have a better chance of winning, for risk of losing both games, i responded that i can see that logic, but that:

• 'I just wonder, given how poorly we have played in the Queens, Kings birthday game in the last few years (ironically, in large part because, IMO, we have been loading at this point in previous seasons) if the idea might be to be cherry ripe for the game.'

I'm convinced that proved to be the case, ie we took a calculated risk and did a big block of training ahead of this game, with the goal of optimizing our condition for the Pies game, and our performance suffered as a result.

My final point is in regard to the push back i often get when raising this topic - if all teams do it how come the Pies (or insert other top teams) don't drop games they should not lose whereas we do.

My answer is that it is a very good question, and that the answer includes factors such as having too many poor kicks and in previous years having a game plan more dependent on pressure than other teams (pressure is the thing that most noticeably drops off under the fatigue of loading*).

But also, that it's reasonable to question our mental resilience (what is leading teams doing?), planning and coaching. I would note, however, that the top teams DO lose matches during this phase of the year.

*Pressure is by the best measure of fatigue, with contested possessions second. They said on the fox coverage that:

• Our last quarter pressure rating was the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody

• The average for the game the fifth lowest EVER under goody

I suspect that the majority of our top 10 worst pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of our mid-season bye. @WheeloRatings do you have access to our historical pressure rating data?

14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

@WheeloRatings can you please contextualise those numbers? How does our 162 rank this year and under Goodwin? And what about the fourth quarter 132?

They said on the fox coverage that:

• our lastquarter pressure rating wasr the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody

• The average for the game the fith lowest under goody

By the by, I suspect that the majority of top 10 pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of of our mid season bye.

15 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

full analysis expected

interesting watching kolt around the edges of the goals for el jefe and rick - he celebrates the players who were the goal assists and then he gets EVERYONE around mentha for his first goal for casey

his attitude as a team player is top notch

His body language and energy had been tp notch on the last 2 games.

He'll be back in the ones soon enough.

15 hours ago, 640MD said:

Adelaide making our win look insipid

A pet hat of mine is retrospectively downgrading a victory because or the form of the beaten team the following week.

Did the lions brilliant demolition of the hawks the week after we beat them make our won over them premiership worthy?

Just now, binman said:

Binge sometimes has kayo content as a way to promote kayo

59 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

Binge doesn't have the footy, Kayo does.

They're both owned by Foxtel.

Binge sometimes has kayo content as a way to promote kayo

3 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

Do we really play C’wood in the VFL at Whitten Oval next Saturday night? Strange venue and time if so.

That's awesome, right side of town for me - I'm there with bells on.

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Quite. The key to getting our front half defensive game going (the keeping territory part) is getting it in there without an immediate intercept. Having kicks that are to the benefit of your teammate - what a novel concept…

I am still amazed at that CP5 stat…

No wonder most think he and Clarrie can’t hit the side of a barn.

I agree that we're kicking inside 50 better but really, as evidenced by our relatively low marks inside 50 numbers, were still oten bombimg it in to a contest.

I think the big difference to 2021 - 2024 is, on both first time and repeat entries, we're going around the arc more to spead the defenders so if we do kick to an aerial contest it's more often a one on one, which we're halving more often than not.

8 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

It’s this that gives me confidence. Our one wood might be contest and defence but our putter and most important club appears to be playing a front half territory game. One question I have is do we set up our defence further back to allow an exiting ball to also clear our F50 of the opposition?

Front half game is dependent on contest and defence.

I don't think we are setting our D further back - we're certainly pushing up when we have the ball in our forward line (key to creating front half turnovers).

8 hours ago, rpfc said:

That Petracca stat is laughably pathetic. You want to know why Rds 1-5 happened - there’s your indication - he (and others) were dumping it in there, and we would have probably had players leading to spots that were rarely used due to the hangover of the territory game. Now we have a better sense for what we want to do and how we want to enter the 50.

It's funny you should mention the 'terrority game'.

Like the pies, we are still playing it in so far there us a clear emphasis on winning the territory, inside 50 battle this season.

The difference is the focus on, as you suggest, not always bombing it in (though we are still doing plenty of that) and bei g much less straight line.

It's interesting because in 2024, on the back of the pies 2023 flag win, it was all about scores from the back half and spring boarding from half half.

In 2025, whilst transition from the back half is still important, the pendulum has swung back a bit to territory, get it inside 50 and trap there, forward half turnover footy.

It's a shift that suits us.

The red and blue print.

7 hours ago, Adam The God said:

Our senior mids were the culprits. Trac, Viney and Clarry. They all dump kicked repeatedly inside.

Now they're learning to give the hands or go shorter.

A good example is trac handballing sharp in the seans game to set a running goal rather than bombing for goal himself.

1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Sam Ting Bin

No it's not.

2 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

I thought he was very good today in his work rate, clean hands and quality kicking. I am still unsure how he fits at AFL intensity but if he keeps presenting and making most of chances like he did today he could well develop an AFL career.

Yep, back to back solid games with good intensity.

Times his leads super well.

10 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Anyone? Bueller?

Neat

Noah yze kicks a beauty

30 minutes ago, Heart Beats True said:

The umpire whistles coming through the effects mic from the surrounding grounds is bloody annoying.

Sound is nor synced properly with the vision, at least it is for me, meaning the whiistle is slightly ahead of the play, which very annoying.

25 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Razor has clearly explained this on numerous occasions. Basically if you kick it up the line (regardless of the type of kick and where it's being kicked from / to) and it bounces roughly parallel with the line (doesn't have to be perfectly straight ie; it can move around left right or whatever...it's a general rule not judged on a ruler's edge as such) then it's not deliberate. So if you kick it from near the line and it runs / bounces a few times and happens to roll over the line, it's not deliberate.

You have to be kicking it in board (starting well away from the line eg; 20 - 30 meters or more inside) and angling it towards the boundary line for it to be any chance of deliberate. It's the angle you kick it on that matters.

However, there's also the situation where players may intend to kick up the line or even in board but are swung around or impacted in the tackle off balance and it just happens to to go out. The umps need to use their common sense and understanding of the nuances of the game in these situations. Trouble is their understanding is often hit and miss or poor here as well!

Unfortunately umps adjudicate it very diff between themselves and depending on which team's doing the kicking.

There's also the situation that the ball can start off bounces parallel to the line but then the line curves inwards because it's an oval and the ball can't help but go out. That shouldn't be deliberate either.

me posting to the wrong thread mono

It's not deliberate.

Its insufficient intent to keep the ball I the field of play.