Jump to content

binman

Life Member
  • Posts

    13,800
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    82

Posts posted by binman

  1. If i was to guess rooster I would have thought you had us outside the 8.

    Sixth would bev slide, albeit not a calamitous one and good too see you think there's a chance we finish top of the ladder.

    I could absolutely see us finishing outside the 8, if like in 2019, we have a horror run with injury. The same is true of any side, including the pies.

    On maxy, I have been saying for at least 5 years that no one player is as important to a team's chances of success as maxy is to ours.

    If obviously depends when he got injured, but let's say he missed half a season I think our top 4 chanced are gone.

    Remarkably given his age, the same is true of the pies if nick daicos misses half the season, such is his importance to them (albeit not ad critical as maxy).

    However a reasonable counter argument is having maxy out for a block of time might create some positive outcomes - fast tracking verrll for example. I mean, we did pretty well with him not in the side last year.

    On the flaming, could I respectly suggest that just like the accusations of posters being triggered by what you see as valid criticisms of the club, there is perhaps an element of discouraging push back?

    Case in point, I think your  commemt about 'the train wreck that this club has become over preseason' is hyperbolic and wildly inaccurate. Train wreck? C'mon.

    But I have no interest in having a dialogue about it because with that as a starting point it will go nowhere

    'What else would you call it when......'

    Any dialogue would quickly descend into accusations of reflexively backing the club an refusing to see reality.

    • Like 2
  2. 14 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

    Probably because you get flamed for doubting. I actually don’t understand how you can presume it’s just going to happen again considering the preseason we’ve had. It’s been a shocker and it keeps on coming. Let’s see how you feel if we get pantsed by Carlton 

    Seriously Roost, show me one example of a single poster saying success 'is just going to happen'.

    I'm not being facetious, but unless I've missed it I can't recall anyone saying anything vaguely like that. 

    And perhaps I've also missed you being flamed for predicting we will slide. Push back sure, including from me, but flamed?

    To be clear no predictions about our fortunes in 2024 have been tested - a hit and giggle practice match notwithstanding.

    We don't know who will be closest to the mark yet. Your predictions of us going backwards may well prove to be correct. 

    On that front, I note you haven't put your flag in the ground with the poll on where we will finish.

    A healthy 20% of respondents think we will miss the 8 amd and 40% think we will finish 5th to 8th.

    Which means the 60% agree with your assessment we are likely going backwards this season.

    That's to say, even if it doesn't feel like it, your views are shared by the majority of posters (yes, small sample, but I don't expect the percentages will change much).

    It also means that those, like me, who think we will remain one of the best four teams in the competition are in the minority.

    • Like 1
  3. 37 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

    And you call me rude. 

    Here's an idea...mind your own business.

    I am just as devoted a fan as you are, despite our different perspectives. I'm looking forward to the trip & game regardless of the result. I wouldn't ever tell you not to do something you're looking forward to. 

    Acknowledging the challenges in front of us is not sooking. Discussing those challenges in a thread specifically about them is relevant. Mentioning that some of us saw the same challenges a few months ago is also relevant. Sorry if it's a touchy subject. 

    If you don't like what other people have to say, stay off the internet. 

    I respect what you bring to the forum, all you do for the the club and your positivity. The club needs all of that. It also needs others who will put it under pressure when required. Some threads, like training updates that you contribute to, are fun and optimistic. Other threads like this are to discuss what isn't, or might not be going quite as well. 

    Likewise, I genuinely respect Binman's contributions and devotion. But I don't always agree with it, and think particularly when we lose there are some pretty amazing mental gymnastics on show trying to justify, excuse or explain away what are very simply, poor performances or better opposition teams.

    I'm pretty sure I saw the "loading" excuse trotted out in 2nd quarter on Sunday. In a practise match. In February. That same excuse will probably be used in rounds 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 19 and 21. I don't agree with it. It's tiresome.

    Strong clubs don't look for excuses and don't make apologies - they own it, like Trac did in the recent podcast. We did this under Roos and from all accounts, did this in early 2021 when the players took ownership.

    Our club needs more of that, not more excuses or long-winded explanations that blame the faceless fitness gods or the incredible improbability of losing a final with double the number of inside 50s. 

    Your second, ironically quite long, critique of my posting is noted. 

    If I could be so bold as to offer some advice.

    Grab a dictionary and read the definitions of excuses and reasons.

    Check the calender - it's 2024, not 1988. Football has evolved.

    The old, 'I value the contribution of xxxx, but they post drivel i think is stupid' doesn't scream sincerity, and is an approach best left to 14 year high school kids.

    If my posts, posting style and opinions, cause you such obvious frustration (as evidenced by going out of your way to criticise me in two posts that had nothing to do with me) perhaps don't read them and/or put me on ignore.

    Life's too short for unnecessary angst. 

    • Clap 1
  4. Pass mark
    Winning a final is the minimum after successive straight-sets September exits, but the Demons' list is simply too talented to not be talking premierships in 2024.

     

    We have a list that is too talented to not be talking premierships in 2024?

    I'm guessing the author isn't a  Demonland poster. 

  5. 2 hours ago, fr_ap said:

    There were several of us calling out the warning signs some time ago. The media are now jumping on board, and it's hard not to. There is little about our present situation that bodes well, leaving the usual apologists quick to point out our 3 consecutive top 4 finishes.

    They were nice, but are ultimately irrelevant to this year, especially when the bottom has fallen out of the list depth-wise and we had the worst cultural offseason we've had since pre-Roos. 

    There are certainly several things to be concerned about, whether you like Lloyd or agree with him or not. 

    I respect Binman's analysis, but the length of his posts has direct predictive correlation to our fortunes. The worse things look, the longer his posts get. There were some particularly lengthy ones in Sunday's post match thread, and I have a feeling we're going to be reading some even longer ones before this year is up. 

    I have tickets and am flying up, but I think round zero in Sydney could actually be pretty nasty. Could very well set the tone for the year. 

    K.

    • Love 1
    • Haha 1
  6. As there is every preseason there is lots of chat about how the dees will go this year and whether we fall away (and next to no chat that we might actually improve). 

    Luck plays a big role in winning a flag, but i think we can all agree that key to winning a flag is finishing top 4.

    I'll post my rationale for this opinion at a later point, but for now i wanted to put my flag in the ground and say that I think we will, for the fourth consecutive season, finish the 2024 home and away season in the top 4. 

    I'm keen to see where the Demonland massive thinks we finish at the end of 2024 home and away season:

    • Top 4
    • 5th-8th 
    • Missing finals 
    • Thanks 1
  7. 8 minutes ago, 3183 Dee said:

    That’s a fair point - Top 4 in the past 3 seasons is some achievement. I guess I was highlighting the fact I haven’t been convinced over the past couple of years - I get that the ladder doesn’t lie - but I don’t quite believe this team at the moment.

    Well, it would appear you are not Robinson Caruso. 

    Personally I am a big believer in facts and form. And on both, only the pies could claim to have better form in the last three years. 

    Does that mean we will make top 4 again this year?

    No of course not.

    But to be honest the facts mount a much stronger case we will make top 4 than the vibes of supporters who have endured so much heartache that we won't. 

    On that point, is it hyperbole to suggest the last dees squad as consistently successfull as this was the early to mid 60s?

    Perhaps collectively we are conditioned to expect failure?

    I wonder if fans of the San Francisco 49ers, on the back of mutiple heartbreaks, assume their team will fall away next season? I suspect not.

    • Like 2
  8. 8 hours ago, Gator said:

    He says Melbourne were ''shown up in the finals''.  

    That is patent nonsense.  They dominated Carlton in most of the general play, but didn't close the door and lost by 2 points.  They won most metrics, i.e. clearances, contested possessions, etc.

    They had 69 inside 50s to Collingwood's 37.  They had 8 more scoring shots and they also dominated contested possessions, contested marks, marks inside 50, clearances, etc., before managing to lose by 7 points.

    It's obviously infuriating to lose two games we should have won, but we certainly weren't ''shown up''.

    Not having either Petty or van Rooyen for both games also didn't help, but naturally that gets overlooked.

    Indeed.

    Shown up? Please. 

    In addition to not having petty and jvr, we didnt have melk available 

    Melk not only would have negated  the pies and blues intercept strengths, as one of our best kicks  surely would have made a better fist of his scoring opportunities than some of his teammates.

    And of course losing Gus for all but 7 mins of the pies game, and the clear psychological impact of that incident on the team for a good quater and a half, was another huge factor.

    How would have the pies gone  without Mihocek, Elliot and Johnson (I know mcstay was out, bur so was tmac and brown)?

    • Like 5
  9. 10 hours ago, 3183 Dee said:

    Even though we made Top 4 the last 2 years

    One of the commentators must have said this 3 or 4 times in the tigers game.

    Did my head in.

    Its not untrue I guess, but we made top 4 in the last THREE seasons.

    For pete's sake, in 2021 we finished the home and away season on top of the ladder and won the bloody flag. Third in 2022 and 4th last year. 

    Not having a shot at you 3183 (i am at the commentator, and Barlow who didn't correct him once), but it is a pretty relevant ommisoon if used as a factor in how we are assessed. 

    Yes we have gone out in straight sets in the last two finals, but three top 4s in succession and a flag is impressive by any measure surely.

    • Like 7
    • Clap 3
  10. 7 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

    Fit enough but Billings historically hasn't done the hard stuff was my impression. As soon as the Saints stopped allowing passengers on defense he struggled to get a game.  Personally I'd give up the extra 4 pressure acts and 2 tackle a game as the 2nd HFF if he can hit McAdam or BF inside 50 once or twice a game.  We kick 1 more goal per game last year we have a percentage of 130+ and the number 1 offensive team, the margins are that slim.  

    Totally agree.

    If he is fit enough, we can well and truly cover any lack of defensive effort/nous he might have.

     I have no doubt we have given him a chance for exactly the reason you suggest - he can hit a target.

    And as important, perhaps more so, weight a kick to a forwards' advantage, a much underrated skill, and one ridiculously few dees players have, including tracc and Oliver. 

    Makes it so much harder for our key forwards. Must do their heads in when we kick to their opponents advantage.

    Apart from reducing our chances of marks inside 50 it's a big factor in the number of intercept marks we give up. 

  11. 8 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Being at the ground I thought Billings did some nice things.

    He was even better on the replay.

    Good inside 50 entries, took a courageous mark when he was expecting heavy contact and just looked like a smart and composed footballer who respects his disposal/puts a premium on his ball use.

    I would be shocked if he's not in the round zero side and ticks a box that we needed over summer. I'd expect him to get a lot of his ball between the arcs rather than as a small forward that plays deep.

    Competing for the high half forward role.

    Am I right in thinking he is regarded as having a good tank/is good aerobically?

    Perhaps I'm imagining that.

    Nibbla has one of the two HFF roles (maybe 3 if you include an interchange player rolling that role, and perhaps wing too) leaving Spargo, Laurie, Billings, Brown (though he could play closer to goal too) and maybe the colt fighting for let's say two spots. 

    • Like 1
  12. 5 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

    I think you would need to look at the dreaded predicted score to see if those teams performed better than expected. Doubt they would have it for the practice match, but definitely would be available for the others.

    From memory, on predicted score we were something like plus 20 against the blues in the finals, plus 12 against the Pies and plus 15 against the blues in the home and away game.

    Cant recall the others, but in the praccy match just gone i suspect the final score pretty much reflected the expected score.

    BBB's questions - just a coincidence or the oppo getting easier shots at goal on us? - are reasonable.

    I think the answers are that, no its not a coincidence and no the oppo is not getting easier shots at goal on us (with the exception of the first quarter and a half against the Pies when we lost our defensive shape and they got some easy slingshot goals - hence the high number of set shots on goal they kicked).

    So why the differential? 

    Applying Occams' razor, the answer is our kicking skills are below AFL average.

    This is exacerbated by our three best players - Oliver, Trac and maxy - all being woeful shots at goals.

    By contrast the Pies three best players Nick Daicos, Degoey and Sidebottom/Pendlebury are all brilliant kicks for goals, as is their ruck, Cox.  

    Kicking is our Achilles heal (foot?) and has been for 15 years at least i reckon. 

    • Like 3
  13. On 17/02/2024 at 13:28, ManDee said:

    Not only have you modified SL's quote you have made a fool of yourself. These antiquated views are boring, grow up.

    Antiqued and boring is being extremely kind md.

    Straight up pathetic misogyny.

    Made worse by making it seem as if SL had made that comment, which I did at first - and was shocked because it was completely out of character for Salem's lot.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  14. 1 hour ago, Damo said:

    It definitely seemed that Richmond would find a short target inside 50. We didn't seem to be on the lookout so blazed away. I'm not complaining but I was looking for a point of difference.

    We hit a number of leading targets and players getting out the back.

    In fact if I was forced to guess i reckon we might have had more goals from set shots than the tigers. 

    • Like 1
  15. 1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

    The two finals in 2023 would beg to differ.

    Virtually every ball was bombed in.

    It might have felt that way, but its not the case that virtually every ball was bombed in.

    If it was the case it would be reflected in the shots at goal data (also in the charts that show inside 50 entries and where goals were kicked from, which I've seen but couldn't find with a quick search).

    Given how infrequently we jagged pack marks in those games (or any games really, given how hard it is to take a pack mark these days) and factoring in goals from free kicks and pings from 40 -60 metres, if we bombed it long to a pack say 90% of the time, logic suggests the numbers would be something like:

    • 70% of scores from general play (eg crumbing packs, stoppage goals, running shots etc) 
    • 30% from set shots (marks, usually one out or on the lead, and frees).

    In the blues finals loss we were aprox 50% from general play and set shots.

    In our loss to the Pies, a game that was high pressure and slippery, we were aprox 40% from general play and 60% from set shots.

    Shots at goal

    Team Shots G B T Acc.
    General Play
    Melbourne 15 4 9 33 26.7
    Carlton 8 3 2 20 37.5
    Set Position
    Melbourne 13 5 6 36 38.5
    Carlton 13 8 4 52 61.5

     

    Team Shots G B T Acc.
    General Play
    Melbourne 9 3 3 21 33.3
    Collingwood 4 2 2 14 50.0
    Set Position
    Melbourne 14 4 5 29 28.6
    Collingwood 11 7 3 45 63.6

     

    The bottom line is our method works. 

    Which is why other teams employ it, just at the tigers did yesterday - which is no surprise since they are the originators of the when in doubt get territory strategy that, with pressure, is the foundation of the game circa 2024. 

    It was our accuracy that failed us in the finals not our method. 

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2
    • Clap 3
  16. 4 hours ago, Damo said:

    Bombing it into the forward line should not be 90% of entry 

    Sure, agree totally. 

    But it never is, or has been under goody. Nowhere near it. 

    It certainly wasn't anywhere near 90% yesterday. 

    Come the finals last year every team, including the Pies, basically played a variation of the dees game plan, which includes bombing it long into the forward line. But again, none of them do so 90% of the time. 

    • Like 2
  17. 30 minutes ago, Demongirl35 said:

    One thing that really annoyed me with yesterdays game was Steven may marking in defence and kicking it to Jake Bowey (who probably had a good 10 metres if not more of a tigers player) and kicked it high and over his head which bowey couldn’t mark it resulting in a boundary throw in (if I recall)

     

    May proceeded to lose his [censored] at bowey… which if I was Jake I’d be [censored] that I’m getting yelled at by another player who couldn’t kick low and to met whilst standing on my own. I know it’s little but may really annoys me with his attitude some times 

    May's got form with rubbish like that.

    Did on another occasion yesterday- I think aimed at tomo. 

    On his kicking, I wish they made it a team rule that he can only kick it 60 metres plus.

    He misses a ridiculous number of 15 to 40 metre kicks under no pressure. Like that kick to Bowser. 

    • Like 4
  18. 1 hour ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

    I also think we lack those elite pressure forwards that a team like Collingwood have. In the grand final the Pies had Hill, Mcreery, Ginnivan and Elliott as small forwards. Their key forwards were Mihocek and Cox! Not really a scary proposition, but they all work together well.

    100% agree. 

    Hill, Mcreery, Ginnivan and Elliott were absolutely key for the Pies in the finals. All were fantastic and big factors in the flag. 

    Interestingly all bar Ginnvan are more medium forwards size wise, but apply huge pressure.

    Koz is small, but his pressure is elite. Chandler is small, but his pressure in the finals was average i thought.

    Spargs is also small, but never really got back to his best, was inexplicably (IMO) not selected for the Pies game and pressure was average on the blues finals loss. 

    That puts a lot of pressure on the medium forwards to apply pressure, particularly when you have a lumbering Tmac.

    Smith held up his end of the bargain pressure wise in the blues loss, but i don't think Fritter was fully fit and his pressure was average.

    Losing Melk really hurt in this regard, and his loss was compounded by JVR missing the blues game as in addition to missing his marking and goals we really missed the sort of pressure and tackling inside 50 we saw glimpses from him yesterday. 

    Based on yesterday's game i think Brown is a red hot chance of being in the team in round one and playing that small forward and/or high half forward pressure role.

    I think the Colt might still be a ways off, but he's chance to come in to the side for the same role at some point, as is perhaps Sestan (jury out though). That would certainly make life difficult for Chandler in terms of keeping his spot in the ones.  

    If McCadam comes in he will to need to apply the sort of defensive pressure melk applied last season. 

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...