binman

1 hour ago, neolightveo said:

No, Not at all. Just trying to get clarification from people who may know more then me on this what is relialisticly achievable 

Cool first 19 posts bro.

The dees are certainly testing the theory that all news is good news.

Good to get a win. Have to say I worried they might roll over tge top of us.

Hore and Hanks both such pure footballers. Guns

13 hours ago, Young Angus said:

Thanks for that helpful comment, you're a real winner mate.  Of course I read it first and I couldn't find the date or any info about it so maybe I was looking in the wrong spot but that's why I posted here.  It's not your job to teach everyone how to be better humans, perhaps a benefit of the doubt sometimes wouldn't go astray.  

You went to the trouble of posting that and still didn't tell me when it was on, then you have a crack at other DL'ers?  You really do epitomize the "internet forum legend".

Our website is a complete and utter joke. And has been for a long time.

I hardly visit it at all. And almost never for club related info like match day stuff or events.

It's beyond ridiculous that in 2024 a professional sporting club could have a website so embarrassingly amateurish.

Symptomatic of our woeful comms.

11 hours ago, dees189227 said:

Garry is a great analyser of footy. He'd be great with Gerard but I thought he'd enjoy on the couch more. 

You and i have wildly different definitions of the word great.

1 hour ago, BDA said:

they should get rid of whateley as well

Agree.

And whilst they're at it add the producer who seems to think long, fast cut video sequences backed by an uber dramatic soundtrack is some sort of artistic genius.

8 hours ago, layzie said:

Agree. How many complete accidents need to end in surgery?

I like Mills a lot but if you were gonna make one mistake in your career then this one was a beauty.

A mistake that got barely any criticism.

The coverage was all boys will be boys vibe - which as much as anything probably speaks to a societal acceptance of alcohol misuse (the number one cause of ER visits by a country mile).

Mills' stupidity ptetty wiped out his entire season. Was basically their only significant injury they had.

Great leadership right there.

9 hours ago, Demonstone said:

Me too.  I'd rather sort your sock drawer than listen to Trade Radio.

Definitely an only fans niche opportunity.

On 25/09/2024 at 21:50, Demonstone said:

I'd have him just to hear the MFC fans yell "Praise the Lord" whenever he does something good.

Forget something good, I'd  yell praise the lord if he hit a target by foot.

1 hour ago, Bowserpower said:

Harsh on Mills.

Happened on Mad Monday and was a complete accident.

A complete accident?

Drunk as a mule and wrecking your shoulder wrestling with a team mate is not a 'complete accident'.

It's a choice.

32 minutes ago, No. 31 said:

Harry is not on the market and he doesn't want to go anywhere. This has been made clear to everyone recently when his name was floated (with no basis in reality) with Petracca possibly leaving the Dees. Barrett probably just wants to generate cheap clicks and views, a barrel scraper.

With all due respect 31 you clearly have not learned anything on demonland.

Where there's smoke there's fire.

Morris, and now barret have suggested he could find himself at another club.

They are not going to just pluck that out if there's nothing to it.

I suspect the subtext is curnow had issued am ultimatum - Harry or me.

I suspect there might cultural issues.

McKay wants out. Kennedy treated appallingly and wants our.

Looking for a new high performance manager.

Houston doesn't want to go there

Question marks over Voss's future. Is he the one?

Where there's smoke.

Can't eat value.

Didn't lay off. Regretted it 10 minutes into the game.

Luckily had a saver on the lions to win by +39 @ 7.50 which at least meant i didn't lose.

13 minutes ago, bing181 said:

No coincidence either that in both of those seasons we missed finals the preceding year.

(i.e. longer off-season/break).

Let's hope there's another non coincidence next year - as in what happened the year after we last missed finals!

3 minutes ago, bing181 said:

On paper.

The team you're able to get on the field and keep on the field (consistency) is something else.

Absolutely.

No coincidence of course that our two most successful years under goody, 2018 and 2021, directly correlate to seasons with a great run with injury

Or that our two least successful seasons, 2019 and this year correlate with a wretched run with injury.

8 hours ago, jnrmac said:

You're a glass half full man. We lost by a kick to Port, GWS, Blues and Brisbane.

Win those and the conversation would have been different.

We had a terrible year in my view but I can see how Goodwin would look at the above and say we weren't far off.

 

Agree we weren't far off.

But with our woeful preseason,  injuries, so many senior players clearly carrying injuries, and a third of the team kids running out of puff  even I doubt we had the wherewithal to do win a flag this year.

Hard not think it was a blessing in disguise missing finals - particularly if we land a gun at pick 5.

On injuries, the Swans have been blessed this season - very much like we were in 2021.

And anyone who doubts the impact of losing say tracc only need to see the influence of heeney in the finals.

The swans almost certainly lose week one if not for heeney. They lose that game and they are no monties to even make the GF (ironically they would have played the lions).

11 hours ago, binman said:

If you took a poll on demonland about the relative strength of our list compared to the swans, pies, lions, cats and perhaps even the blues in 'recent years' (so, for the sake of argument lets say the last five years) I suspect, when the outliers are removed the median response would be at best the strength of our list is equal to those clubs.

And i think the consensus would be that all those clubs lists, with the possible exception of the blues,  were 'easily good enough to win at least one more flag over recent years'.

None have.

On the weekend the swans or lions will win their first flag in recent years, meaning those five clubs, all with lists good enough to win flags have won the grand total of three in 'recent years'.

And none more than one.

Which just reinforces Smokey's point about the difficulty of winning a flag, and how much had to go right to do so.

And it refutes the argument 'we have underachieved by not taking advantage of our position and the relative weakness of the rest of the comp'.

In fact, in the 10 years since the hawks won the last flag of their threepeat, the ONLY club that has taken 'advantage' of the strength of their list is the tigers with their 3 flags.

No other club in those ten years has won more than one flag (Dogs in 2016, Eagles in 2018, Dees in 2021, Cats in 2022, Pies in 2023 and swans or lions in 2024).

None of which is to say it's not  disappointing we haven't won another flag thus far.

I'll go to my grave thinking we left one on the table in 2023.

But a key point is the era is not over.

We are in good shape to win another in the next few years.

The Cats, swans and lions have a model that rejects the idea of bottoming out and stocking up on pick ones, but rather staying in contention over a long period of time.

It is exactly that model that goody said he aimed to implement at the dees in his very first presser after being announced as senior coach.

And he has been good to his word.

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Rubbish, our list was easily good enough to win at least one more flag over recent years. We have underachieved by not taking advantage of our position and the relative weakness of the rest of the comp.

If you took a poll on demonland about the relative strength of our list compared to the swans, pies, lions, cats and perhaps even the blues in 'recent years' (so, for the sake of argument lets say the last five years) I suspect, when the outliers are removed the median response would be at best the strength of our list is equal to those clubs.

And i think the consensus would be that all those clubs lists, with the possible exception of the blues,  were 'easily good enough to win at least one more flag over recent years'.

None have.

On the weekend the swans or lions will win their first flag in recent years, meaning those five clubs, all with lists good enough to win flags have won the grand total of three in 'recent years'.

And none more than one.

Which just reinforces Smokey's point about the difficulty of winning a flag, and how much had to go right to do so.

And it refutes the argument 'we have underachieved by not taking advantage of our position and the relative weakness of the rest of the comp'.

In fact, in the 10 years since the hawks won the last flag of their threepeat, the ONLY club that has taken 'advantage' of the strength of their list is the tigers with their 3 flags.

No other club in those ten years has won more than one flag (Dogs in 2016, Eagles in 2018, Dees in 2021, Cats in 2022, Pies in 2023 and swans or lions in 2024).

35 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

For those who have an interest in the Brownlow, you can track my predictions live during the count this year.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow_live.html

Thanks wheelo. 

I reckon you've got it right.

In terms of a Brownlow bet, hate to say it, but even at 2.75 Daicos is value.

Yes they didn't win as many games as teams with others in contention (cripps, neale, bont) but he doesn't have as many people taking votes from him.

And his skills stand out and are right under the noses of the umps.

He's my bet. 

5 hours ago, picket fence said:

Before the last game I said on this site that Goodwin needed to place a HARD tag on Daicos if we were to have any chance of winning.. so mastercoach didn't and the rest is history. IF he wins he should buy Goody a tattslotto ticket for gifting him 3 votes.....

......and us pick 5.

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

Such a [censored] headline and line of inquiry...

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-12-players-most-under-the-pump-in-the-2024-afl-grand-final-20240922-p5kch3.html

It's our collective fault - angst is always a winner for the media.

It's ever been thus - even before algorithms.

On 12/09/2024 at 18:29, Gator said:

You have to treat the McAdam and Neale-Bullen deals separately.  They're not related, even though I understand the parallels.

For me, pick 25 for Neale-Bullen is an excellent outcome.  I reckon he's worth a late 30s pick.  But, ultimately, he's worth what someone will pay.

I accept his leadership qualities are valuable, but I don't overly rate the footballer.  A decent role player, but they're a dime a dozen.  Too much of a fumbler with many limitations.

In a deep draft this is a very good pick.

You won't be surprised I differ in my assessment of nibblas ability - he finished sixth in the bluey last year, and I'm guessing will be top 5, perhaps even top 3 this year.

And if the pies want a first rounder for noble, late 30s for nibbla is way overs.

Be that at as it may, I completely agree with you he's worth what the market says he's worth. Simple as that.

If that's pick 25 then so be it (by the by, in a vacuum, as highly as I rate nibbla, I would peg him at 20-25, so 25 is pretty fair).

It's the same with trading players into the club, both in terms of what draft pick we're prepared to give up and what salary we offer.

Which is why I find the annual debate about the 'worth' of players all a bit silly. 

2 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

This argument would be more convincing if those teams struggled when away from their home grounds. Lions the only one of them who have really struggled at the MCG but even they have overcome that in the last couple of years.

Our own record at the MCG under Goodwin is pretty ordinary. It might even be <50%. We're more reliable away from home than at the MCG. A bit of an oddity in my time watching Melbourne.

The relative form of the lions, cats and swans away from their respective home grounds isn't particularly relevant in terms of negating the fact, as evidenced by their win loss ratio over say the last 10 seasons, that all three clubs enjoy a clear home ground advantage.

But for the sake of argument, let's say it is relevant.

All three clubs' records away from home would statistically be way worse than their records at home.

That's to say, relative to their form at home they struggle playing away.

Which supports not negates the argument they have a home ground advantage.

Further, im guessing that two of the three clubs, and perhaps all three (not sure about the swans), despite being finalists most years, are underwater (ie less than 50%)  in terms of win loss ratio at the g in the last decade. 

Take the cats.

Up until their flag in 2022 they had made finals in multiple years, and made the gf in 2020, yet could not win a flag.

It was widely discussed that a potential factor in going all the way was not being able to translate the method they used at KP to the more spacious MCG.

2 hours ago, FreedFromDesire said:

You could argue though, conversely, they're at a disadvantage for half their games as every other ground would then seem "strange" to them. What are the dimensions "strange" in relation to as well? The MCG?

I think this argument doesn't give enough credit to how well those clubs are run and just how good those coaches are, in different ways.

Fair point about playing away, at least for the swans and lions, but more about the travel involved than playing at less idiosyncratic grounds.

(By the by, i don't think its a coincidence that since Kardinia park has become less idiosyncratic with the stands reducing the impact of the prevailing wind, the cats record has not been as good there).

As I said, I rate all three coaches very highly.

And I 100% agree all three clubs are super well run - which by the by is a huge benefit all three coaches enjoy, and arguably goody doesn't (making his very impressive record even more meritorious).

But the home ground record of all three clubs in the period Fagan, Scott and longmire have coached  means all three start each season with a solid block of likely wins (again particularly fagan as the lions have won something crazy like 90% of their home games since he has been coach).

And therefore all three clubs are excellent chance of making finals each year. 

Don't get me wrong, i think all three are excellent coaches, but in terms of assessing the coaching records of Fagan, Scott and Longmire, i think a relevant data point to consider is their home grounds.

The GABBA, Taxpayer Park and the SCG are strange grounds in terms of dimensions, and in the case of the GABBA also prevailing conditions (the lions play almost all of their games up there at night, when it is frequently humid and slippery).  

As evidenced by their respective home ground records, particularly that of the lions, the Lions, Cats and Swans, unsurprisingly, play well at home and have very real home ground advantage.

That advantage puts all three clubs in the box seat to at least make finals every year and the sustained success of all three clubs in terms of making finals is not surprising.

2 hours ago, Sydee said:

Nice problem to have 😂 I would do it 

Genuine 50/50 game imo 

It would be the smart play.

The lions are currently 2.12, which I reckon is about right.

The disadvantage the lions face is the extra game the've had to play, well that and losing their ruck.

But they have run out the last two games very impressively.

And their strategy to chip kick the cats to frustration, whilst helped by the cats clearly flagging, could not have been possible if they weren't well and truly in great condition.

They have clearly timed their high performance program very well.