binman
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Posts posted by binman
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2 hours ago, Disco InTurno said: Could be wrong but I feel like there might be a bit of a disconnect for some here in terms of what the coaching staff seem to want our forwards to do versus what forwards have historically done in footy.
Have found the game plan thread and Binman’s recent comments there really helpful in trying to understand this.
Petty and AJ certainly aren’t Hogan or Cameron but the way they play largely negates intercept marks in the forward 50—which both prevents those really frustrating fast transition goals through the corridor that killed us earlier this year and allows for ground balls that either let Kozzy do Kozzy things or starts those inside 50 handball chains to try to get to the open man.
Given that we do not have a dominant key forward at the moment, it honestly seems like a brilliant move by the coaching staff.
I really think a challenge for JVR had been adapting to this shift for our key forwards towards being more focused, as a starting point, on ensuring their direct opponent does not intercept mark.
I wonder if that helps explain why he kept on getting in wrestling matches with his opponent, something that must be a real challenge for a 22 year old key forward battling with bigger, stronger opponents.
And for a bloke that has played all his footy as a pure key forward (I think that's right) it's probably counter intuitive and unatural to be defence first, not to mention frustrating.
If I'm correct and goody is implementing a method that involves denying oppo intercept marks combined with manic inside 50 pressure (as evidenced by our off the charts inside 50 tackle differentials in the last six weeks - with an increased average pressure rating arguably the most dramatic statistical change since our first 5 losses) the key metrics for tall forwards are not goals and contested marks they are things like one percenters, spoils, pressure, tackles and above all denying intercept marks and bringing the ball to ground.
All of which points to one of things I most love about footy - the speed at which the game evolves tactically.
Having gone out ans targeted Lever to play the intercept role, we won a flag in large part because of ability to pressure the ball carrier to dump kick and then take intercept marks (a strategy we adapted from Hardwick's tigers and to a lesser eectent the crows)
All teams subsequently implemented variationa of that method to maximise intercept marks in the back half and use them to launch attacks.
Alir, Sicily, McGovern x 2, Vlaustin, Mcartin, Andrews etc etc etc all teams now have the equivalent of a Lever.
So now all teams are going to work on limiting such player's influence - which would in part explain why so few contested marks are being taken by forwards inside 50 atm.
It feels like goody might be going next level with denying intercept marks.
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Edited by binman
In another thread @DEE fence noted Chandler's use of low flat passes. I responded with this post, which i reckon fits in this thread given it's about tactics:
Its interesting you should note that.
It's clearly something they have been working on, ie low, flat passes inside 50 -often from near the boundary and kicked into the corridor on the 45.
Langdon does several each game, ditto melk.
And its more than just kicking back into the corridor - the kicks are being kept deliberately low, are often scrappy (particularly langdons) and often bounce before getting to the target.
I'm guessing the idea is four fold:
Get it to the hotspot quickly, ie not floaters to reduce the time for the oppo to get numbers to the target and by doing
Ideally hit a target dead in front of the goal, 20-25 metres out.
But if not marked, either because it's spoiled or because it bounces, it becomes a predictable ground ball which we fight to win or tackle the oppo if they win it.
Reducing intercept marks
In regard to the last point, all teams look to reduce oppo intercept marks inside D50, but we look hyper focused on doing so.
Watching petty on Sunday from ground level in the pocket you could see his sole focus was blunting mcartin. Barely left his side or looked to get separation.
AJ was similarly defensive. Even Friiter was pretty defensive- am I right in thinking he waxed with melksham to defend Blakley?
Ironically, of our medium and tall forwards, Melksham who has been playing the defensive forward role, was probably our most offensive forward (McCartin too big for melk I reckon).
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On 25/05/2025 at 23:12, DEE fence said: Chin's delivery inside 50 was superb:
Hard Flat Passes
Its interesting you should note that.
It's clearly something they have been working on, ie low, flat passes inside 50 -often from near the boundary and kicked into the corridor on the 45.
Langdon does several each game, ditto melk.
And its more than just kicking back into the corridor - the kicks are being kept deliberately low, are often scrappy (particularly langdons) and often bounce before getting to the target.
I'm guessing the idea is four fold:
Get it to the hotspot quickly, ie not floaters to reduce the time for the oppo to get numbers to the target and by doing
Ideally hit a target dead in front of the goal, 20-25 metres out.
But if not marked, either because it's spoiled or because it bounces, it becomes a predictable ground ball which we fight to win or tackle the oppo if they win it.
Reducing intercept marks
In regard to the last point, all teams look to reduce oppo intercept marks inside D50, but we look hyper focused on doing so.
Watching petty on Sunday from ground level in the pocket you could see his sole focus was blunting mcartin. Barely left his side or looked to get separation.
AJ was similarly defensive. Even Friiter was pretty defensive- am I right in thinking he waxed with melksham to defend Blakley?
Ironically, of our medium and tall forwards, Melksham who has been playing the defensive forward role, was probably our most offensive forward (McCartin too big fir melk I reckon).
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1 minute ago, picket fence said: Id have T.Mac FORWARD for Petty any day of the week! Even if I dont rate A.J it seems that the Brainstrust at Demonland have Brainwashed the selection commitee and he will probably stay. Viney for Spargo is a given, the later will spend months at Casey waiting for another game and Sharp is becoming a damaging link player and finisher. So those are my changes and Petty is the sub! Anyone else on board??
Picket, I think your train left long ago - and there's no one else on board but you.
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8 minutes ago, Dannyz said: Given 1 quarter to execute your role and you finish with 7 touches and 2 goals as a half forward, I think it would be entirely unfair to drop Sharp
Sure, but they have to drop someone.
Tmac has arguably been our best tall defender tgus year, certainly the most consistent and he got dropped.
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25 minutes ago, titan_uranus said: Viney for Spargo. I'd be comfortable making that change even if Spargo is fit - IMO he's clearly 23 out of 23 right now and Viney will come back assuming he's fit.
Interesting question if Spargo's injured and Viney still isn't right. Laurie?
TMac for Lever if there's even a shadow of doubt over Lever's fitness. Wouldn't be surprised to see May "managed" this week either.
AJ stays until JVR puts together weeks of good VFL form. Not one match against the bottom side.
I'm not convinced by this.
As in, I accept he's doing more than the raw stats often show us, but I'm not convinced that's keeping him in the side.
Who is at Casey right now who is banging the door down to take his place? Laurie?
And that aside, if he and Viney are both fit this week, and noting you've already accepted Viney is an automatic selection, who makes way for Viney?
Good question. Probably sharp or spargo.
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1 hour ago, DEE fence said: I once had the great pleasure (while escorting the umpires as a young uniformed constable) at the G, of telling Sticks Kernahan 'not to sook', in those words, as he came over and started berating the umpires after a close Melbourne victory. Was walking on air, (and I knew he dearly wanted to belt me) was my most rascal moment I'm willing to admit to publicly.
You should of arrested him for crimes against coiffure.
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41 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said: Melbourne's best post-clearance contested possessions (2021-2025) is +36 in Round 5, 2021 against Hawthorn. We have had greater than +23 on 11 occasions during that time.
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_team.html?id=melb
Here are the pressure numbers too:
Melbourne v Sydney (Round 11, 2025)
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20251108
Pressure
Team pressure
Quarter
For
Agn
Diff
1
204
216
-12
2
170
176
-6
3
200
182
+18
4
185
190
-5
Match
190
190
0
Source: Herald Sun
Most Pressure Points
Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )
Player
Pressure
ActsPressure
PointsSeason
AverageClayton Oliver
22
63
54.7
Trent Rivers
20
56
29.5
Max Gawn
15
47
21.1
Ed Langdon
15
44
31.2
Christian Petracca
21
38
36.8
Christian Salem
14
36
19.8
Tom Sparrow
14
34
38.1
Xavier Lindsay
15
31
26.8
Kysaiah Pickett
14
30
38.8
Jake Bowey
15
30
29.2
Kade Chandler
13
29
33.3
Bayley Fritsch
9
26
20.3
Jake Lever
10
24
20.3
Charlie Spargo
10
22
26.7
Harvey Langford
14
22
21.1
Jake Melksham
11
22
20.3
Caleb Windsor
10
21
24.1
Judd McVee
11
21
18.2
Harrison Petty
7
15
18.1
Aidan Johnson
6
13
30.0
Daniel Turner
5
13
15.3
Harry Sharp
7
11
19.6
Steven May
5
10
9.9
Source: Herald Sun
Brilliant wheelo - just in time for the pod (and now I feel complete)
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Edited by binman
10 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said: Stats is your thing.
I’m purely going on what I’ve watched, and nothing we’ve produced comes close to that of Collingwood or the Dogs. Their pressure around the ball carrier has been relentless. Stats don’t take into account the quality of opposition and how certain teams can maintain their KPI whilst missing key personal through injury or in Collingwood’s case by at times resting players. We’ve got some big games remaining this season against Pies x 2, Crows at AAMI, Suns at Metricon, Carlton, Dogs & Hawks at the G so we will be tested.
Whilst it’s great we’re winning and evolving the way we play I believe we’re still a bit of the pace of some teams. I’d like to see us use the corridor more after we’re created a turnover.
So your evidence supporting your assertion 'our pressure had not even come close to that what Collingwood brings' is your personal observations.
Seriously, that's it?
To be honest I'm really struggling to avoid responding with sarcasm or irony.
I'll resist that urge and simply say that your argument is, on many levels, unpersuasive- not least because of the high likelihood of confirmation bias given your well documented opinion of where we are at as a team.
Why don't you at least do some research to check if the data begween roundv6 and 11 supports your vibe?
If you are right the data will support your assertion, not contradict it.
By the by, stats aren't 'my thing'. My thing is trying to understand the game, and I find a combination of observation, looking at the data, curiosity and taking on board the many smart, well considered opinions of many posters on Demonland is really helpful.
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3 hours ago, old dee said: Sadly he is a long way from nibbler binman. I will admit he is courageous and gives 100% .
Not sure what you mean OD.
The comparison to nibbla is spargs preparedness to play a distinct role, one that is wholly team first and completey underappreciated by most fans - but 100% appreciated by teamates because they understand what the role is and how hard it is.
You might remember that for several seasons nibbla was the demonland whipping boy for much the same reason spargs is now- because his value to the team is difficult to identify in 1995 stats like disposals and goals.
It still amuses me how when announcing he was leaving it was as if we were losing Nick Daicos.
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2 hours ago, Adam The God said: It depends if Adams is up to the level this year.
True - needs to bulk up a bit.still though hecwants to be a gorilla hunter.
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1 hour ago, Adam The God said: I maintain this may not be the case by the end of 2025. May's pace is becoming an issue, as it is for TMac.
No t sure about the end of 2025, but agree May's pace is a worry.
That said every team needs a gorilla defender to take the oppo gorilla forward, which most teams have at least one of. And May is our gorilla down back, with no obvious replacement, which i think means his best 22 spot is safe this year.
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3 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said: Whilst all three of those things have improved drastically since rd 1 our pressure had not even come close to that what Collingwood brings.
I suspect from round 6 on that is categorically not true - our pressure has been off the charts in that period.
I suspect that from round 6-11 we would be top 3 or 4 in the AFL for pressure rating and pressure rating differential. And i think we are number one in that period for contested possession differential.
But feel free to post data that supports your assertion that 'our pressure had not even come close to that what Collingwood brings'.
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3 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said: [censored] me,
No.1 job of a key fwd is to take contested marks and kick goals. Bringing the ball to ground is a distant second and is a bi product of not marking the bloody thing to begin with. We all love the way AJ goes about it but if he is to keep his spot based on purely that and a few deft taps we’re not serious. Play Turner fwd and if Petty has to spend some time in the ruck so be it. Turner has nailed some important set shots this season from difficult angles. Against better opposition our opportunities will be less, we need key fwds who can take their chances and nail set shots.
2025 says hi
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3 minutes ago, old dee said: I don't see what Spargo offers, yesterday is what you regularly get.
It's worth watching the analysis vid by Jeff White that has been referenced quite bit in the last week or so. A big part of it is highlighting the importance of structures and players carrying out their assigned role.
As i noted in another thread, Spargo is the new Nibbla - surely, we've all learned from the Nibbla experience the importance of looking past old school stats like disposals and goals to assess the performance of players with distinct roles.
The KPIs for his role would prioritize defensive running, pressure and tackles inside 50, assists and score involvements. Yes, he's a forward but goals are a bonus.
I'm not saying he's been brilliant (though he's been way better than many have suggested) but he has played his role, is presumably meeting his KPIs and is clearly an important part of our forward line structure and system. That's why he is selected each week.
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On selection, as a starting point i think it is reasonable to assume that assuming there is no fitness issues (eg returning after rehabbing) May, Lever and Viney will always be selected in the staring 22.
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16 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said: Amazing stats. We absolutely dominated and finally put the score on the board. Yes post clearance contested footy was huge. Points from turnovers. Must be one of our highest ever in recent times.
Harry Sharp 8.3 player rating in one quarter. He definitely made a contribution.
@binman I know Aiden Johnson had a negative game by the ratings but I thought he again brought the contest, the bump and bullocking work and valuable 2nd ruck contests. His tap ons and intercept pressure brought us 3 goals.
It's funny you say that SONS. I just posted this in another thread:
You can't underestimate the importance of the key forwards bringing the ball to ground (well, ot would appear some can).
Its really their most important metric - which by the by points to a weakness in the Champion Data player ratings system, ie it doesn't factor in things such as adherence to role and importance to structure.
Petty and AJ were both much more influential than their ratings suggests.
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Edited by binman
10 minutes ago, jnrmac said: Shame he dropped the chest mark 25m out but I think you are being harsh.
He crashes packs like TMac used to do back in 2019/20. Its really important for our small fwds and there are no stats for it. He gives max a decent chop out as well.
I think that's right - you can't underestimate the importance of the key forwards bringing the ball to ground (well, ot would appear some can).
Its really their most important metric - which by the by poimts to a weakness in the Champion Data player ratings system, ie it doesn't factor in things such as adherence to role, importance to structure.
Petty and AJ were both much more influential than their ratings suggests.
AJ also brings great energy to the team, an energy that has to be infectious.
That said he can't rely on that alone. He reminds me of kolt in that regard, great energy but not enough direct impact.
He needs to start clunking some marks up forward and kicking some goals as he's actually not being used much in the ruck so he had to earn his keep as a forward.
it would appear maxy doesn't need much of a chop out.
As evidence, in a big, must win game (not to mention long and high scorin, meaning lots of centre bounces) yesterday there were 122 ruck contests - Maxy took 108 (85%) of them.
And AJ only went to 6 of 35 centre bounce ruck contests.
Contrast that to the swans, who also have a gun number one ruck. Grundy had 95 ruck contests and Peter Ladhams 27.
If our second ruck isn't needed foe more than 15-20% if ruck contests then AJ is competing with JVR. So he Ned's to kick sme goals.
Ultimately JVR will 100% come back in, probably at AJ's expense.
But personally as much as i love JVR his development is not going to be hurt playing some more games at Casey and I'd be giving AJ a chance to get his forward craft in shape (it's worth noting he was a forward at Werribee) and build his confidence at senior level. Can only help the team.
On JVR, I wonder whether he's struggled this season with the bollocking andcerestlint work our key forwards have given do - which would be no shock given he is only 22 and not particularly tall.
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Edited by binman
14 hours ago, darkhorse72 said: Playing with confidence in the new system. Asa result their is less skill error as player dont second guess where to go. Good to see it in practice against a good defensive side.
Plus the team pressure is back. Great to see.I think this is really Important- ie the system becoming more instinctive and players carrying out their role in terms of method and structure.
You can see with the pies how critical a rock solid system that all players know instinctively is.
They have been using their system, with tweaks of course, since the start of the 2022 season. It takes time to embed a new system, particularly when senior players have spent years embedding a different one.
On that point, kudos must go to our core senior players for adapting so effectively in the last few weeks. Take claz. It's so evident that he is really trying to be be more judicious with his kicks, only bombing it long when that's the right and/or only option. Ditto for tracc.
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2 minutes ago, tiers said: One thing that stood out yesterday against the swanettes was the return of Eddie Langdon's running game.
He seemed to be everywhere on both sides of the ground.
I have always thought that his running game was a big part of our 2021 success.
Go Eddie go.
GO DEES.
I said something similar to mate at the game - langdon's running was incredible.
Ditto for Chandler, who worked his guts out.
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1 hour ago, Bay Riffin said: this. watching him live today, he's in great form, probs our best tall back when the ball hits the ground, and marking beautifully. Great call by Goodwin to rest Tmac. I think this is a crucial period in Turners development where he is playing elite footy. you don't want to mess with that. They will bring Tmac back no doubt but they may have to move him forward. turner is playing irresistible footy.
Yep.
And he has a couple if attributes Tmac doesn't, or at least not to the same level - genuine speed and excellent lateral movement.
I'm loving how goodTurner is running back with the flight of the ball.
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Edited by binman
37 minutes ago, bing181 said: I don't see how we pull this back. Still have the Pies twice, Dogs, Suns, all in-form teams, plus Adelaide at home where they're doing well etc. On top of that, we can't afford to stumble against teams like Carlton or St Kilda (twice), yet alone Hawthorn.
If we're in the conversation, great, but going to need a LOT of luck.
Letting those last few lazy goals in today didn't help our percentage either.
Fans wants us to run out games, and when well up keep piling on the goals.
Which is faire enough, we all love the sugar hit of goals.
But if the aim was to increase our percentage then the best way to achieve that goal would have been to park the bus, suck time out of the clock, deny them scoring opportunities and not worry about scoring ourseves.
Thats to say NOT allow the game to become the shoot out It became.
But no fans want that.
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PREGAME: Rd 12 vs St. Kilda
in Melbourne Demons
I actually agree with you SB - ultimately JVR comes back in.
Kid is a total gun whose numbers in his first two seasons stack up to the very best tall forwards in the modern era, and better than his peers in the AFL (eg JUH, Amiss, Amartey, Logan McDonald, Cadman). I have zero doubt he will make it.
But like you I'm happy for JVR to cool his jets at Casey for say 2 to 3 weeks and allow AJ to play a block of games so he can settle and play with some freedom (so perhaps I'm catching the Picket train for one stop).
A benefit of taking that approach is it helps fast track AJ's development, which in addition to improving his game will help ensure he's better prepared if he gets a call up at future point and will give the coaching staff a better sense of where his ceiling is.