binman

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/genuine-concern-fear-over-flag-fancy-as-afl-title-trend-points-to-two-clear-contenders/news-story/011a91fda6ea530d45d6fceb03dd108a

I love me my stats. But i like them only so far as they can used to help understand the game, not an end to themselves. Like medical symptoms they help with the diagnosis (of issues, method, results, strengths, weaknesses etc). And like medical symptoms, they are not that useful if looked at in isolation (ie not triangulating mutiple data points) or analysed (ie not taken at face value). Fox footy people routinely use champion data stays in a way that suggests they don't understand how to properly use data to inform their analysis. And it would appear fox have also gone all in on AI to write their 'articles'. Case in point (note: I'm not suggesting the data is of no value - bit comments like 'the premier has been in the premiership window at round 8...' are);

Good call. He is tall enough, strong enough and good enough one on one to match weitering (who is a gun no doubt). And has the defensive chops to negate Weitering when needed But and as you note Weitering cant take liberties as Disco is an offensive threat - which is how melk played that role ie not a purely defensive negating role, look to also hit the scoreboard and be an offensive threat. That offensive threat is an even bigger issue if McGovern doesn't get up. A lot of talk about the strength of our forward line. But wirh petty, van royen and disco we have three good sized, mobile key forwards who are dangerous in the air and need to be covered. That creates major match up problems. Particularly when you add a player who has been our leading goal kicker for four seasons and is currently equal fourth on the Coleman ladder.

Fair call. I'm def in the doubts about the swans camp, but you make a good case. They still have Mills to come back in too. That said, and perhaps it's confirmation bias, but i have my doubts their method will stand up come finals. By that I mean, like the pies for much of 2023 (but importantly not in the last 5-6 hames) they are a transition team that relies on clean hands to get the ball to the outside to their distributors like gulden. That method can get exposed in the heat of finals. That said they are strong enough in the contest and we'll coached so they can probably adjust to a more forward half contested game like the pies did last year. But I'm also not convinced by their defence away from the scg. Watching them beat the giants looked like a carbon copy of our game against them. They flood back and completely clog up their opponents forward 50. Old school but very effective on the ridiculously small SCG. Lyon employs a similar method at the docklands. As was the case in our game, the giants forwards had no space to lead into and every marking contest had mutiple players attacking it. Because the scg is so small transition is hard meaning it's hard for opponents to beat the swans' defensive flood and get the ball into a one in one forward line. That method doesn't work as well at proper football ground.

Which points to yet another intersring tactical move from the coach even most dees fans is a tactical plonker. Clarry was playing a similar defensive role Gus often played. A kick behind play defensive side. They also used clarry a lot to set up transition, something they have been doing a bit off, but it was really noticeable sat night.. It suits him because whilst he is not a bullet kick like say salo, his footy iq is off the charts, he sees the field brilliantly and he makes good decisions. He also doesn't get rushed and can take and break tackles. It means they often have clarry at the defensive end if the chain and tracc up the ground in dangerous offensive positions - think his kick to Fritter to set up the wonder goal. Powerful combo and a great use of clarry's footy iq - which I think is maybe the best I've ever seen though increasingly I'm blown away by how well koz reads the game and how quickly he thinks. On that last point, watch his goal he sharks from a handball. Genius. Nine out of ten players go to the cats player and tackle or put frontal pressure on. Not koz. He pauses for a split second, knowing a handball might come and then moves to intercept before the cats player even makes contact with the ball. Just incredible.

And what is even more bizarre is tge previous Casey game was Wednesday arvo ten days days ago.

No. But I watched the first 10 mins of the third quarter and I think they set a world record for repeating the word fatigue!

Which is almost exactly what Goodwin said today when interviewed on the abc footy show when asked for the millionth time about our forward line and going out in straight sets. Good interview actually, but he couldn't hide his annoyance. Goody made the point that you work all year to have a shot, we were were in 'great shape' but luck plays a huge part and we lost our forward line 2 weeks out of finals. We just don't have a sexy game and people either don't understand it, think football is only about offence - elite defence be damned - or are clueless.

I listened to the abc post match too and had the same thought. What were they on about? The comment about other teams working our our defensive sytem come finals was bizarre. I mean they haven't in three previous seasons why would they this year? Is it kez washington? I've never heard of her before and she sounded reasonable enough. But she was totally agin us. Asked a leading question about whether our supposed model of grinding teams and keeping them to a low score, but not be able to score highly ourselves, is a strategy that can win us a flag. What on earth is she talking about? One, we won a flag in 2021 - destroying teams in the process. And two, yes we went out in straight sets the next two seasons, but it's not as if we were a low scoring in team in either year. Or this year for that matter. Our average winning margin this season is 29 points for pete's sake. I'm increasingly of the view that 99% of media just don't get it. If we kicked accurately in the pies and blues finals we win. It really is that simple. Missing goals is not a failure of sytem. It is poor skill execution. Goody almost said as much in his presser. He must be so sick of questions about our forward line. All that said, I did agree with the monkey on the back come finals. We do. Let's finish top 4 and get the job done.

No, I don't think Windsor was on Cameron as such. When Cameron pushes up he basically plays as a winger. Windsor might have stood him at centre bounces but after that they go their own ways. I'm not sure, but I doubt anyone played man on man with Cameron once he left their forward 50. We would have just relied on our all team defence to negate him, and any other plsyer getting the ball in space. Windsor would have been chasing Dempsey in the back pocket because like langers he gets deep into defence to help out our d. He did a number of key defensive acts deep in their forward line.

I was initially responding to your comment that his presser was 'not so bad'. He's rude and a bad loser all the time so that makes not showing respect to your opponents ok? Poor sportsmanship is poor sportsmanship.

High performance background DS?

Forget giving your opponent some credit, he didn't even mention the opponents once. That's just really poor form. Compare his presser to goody's - he was humble in victory and was effusive in his praise for the cats and how good a team.he is. There's no coincidence that in the two post match interviews I've heard from dees players - may and langers - both were similarly complimentary about the cats.

Wing - and im pretty sure for the whole quarter. Not sure about Dempsey, but id say Cameron was on Windsor at times, no vice versa in the sense that Cameron set up at a few center square restarts on the wing. That said Windsor was def part of the combined efforts to shut Cameron down.

Pay that. Excellent comparison Like the cats, Serena has never actually been beaten by an opponent. Both only ever lose it because, 'whilst we are not making excuses we [insert lame excuse here - options include covid, gastro, just had a day off, imply robbed by the umpire, played poorly but still almost won because we are so good and our opponents are not in our league, focus is the finals and schedule].'

You're kidding? Billings is a better field kick than say Windsor ans rivers. Def elite. His field kicking yesterday was sublime.

That's a very strange take A marginal player? I presume by that you mean not quite best 22 and on the edge of being out of the team? Apart from your personal assessment of his game, what evidence would you point to support that opinion? If he was a marginal player wouldn't he be in and out of the side, often an emergency and/or frequently the starting sub or subbed off ? Off the top of my head I can't recall when he was last used as a sub, or taken off and becoming the sub for that matter. When was the last time he was not in our starting 22 and/or dropped? Half way through last season? I'd guess chin has been a best 22 lock for at least the last 22 games we've played. Laurie could be described as 'marginal'. Can't see how Chandler could be considered marginal.

Disagree. Every team that makes top 4 is a contender. Which is not to say that a team outside top can't win in. But the fact remains it is exceedingly rare for teams outside the top 4 to win a flag. And i would contend the game is so demanding now its harder than its ever because of the impact of the extra game.

Yep, fair call. Edited post to calm it down some.

Fascinating game tactically. One thing i didn't realise about the cats until this week was how direct they are. The least number of possessions per goal and the most long kicks, usually opting to kick long to a contest rather than short, and back themselves in to mark, or half the contest and win the ground ball. Goody had another tactical win in that regard. Petty almost played as a quasi mid, following the ball and frequently getting up the ground to impact aerial contests. Disco was a more traditional forward, but also got up the ground to hir aeriel contest. Roo spent a lot of time on the ball, taking 22% of ruck contests (against a season average of 14%) and did a great job of hitting areil contests hard. As they usually do they tried to take maxy away from the ball, but he still had an impact aerialy. We knew coming in the cats would look to kick long to a contest and dominate aerially. So goody reduced the amount of aeriel contests by implementing an uncontested marking plan and made sure we had good representation at any pack mark contest. One measure or the success of the latter tactic was, on a night that was definitely very slippery, that we smashed them in the air, taking a whopping 8 more contested marks (16-8). Well played goody.

Not sure about the uncontested mark stat I'll check. But we used a very similar tactic against the dogs - ie using uncontested marks to control the tempo, frustrate the dog's ability to get into a rhythm and transition the ball from their back half. In that game we had 141 marks (the second most under goody), in this game we had 117 And i suspect a high % were in the first half, as was the case against the Dogs. I think that is part of a strategy to not let those teams settle into how they want the game to look. There is an interesting parallel between the dogs and cats. Both teams are helmed by coaches that like to tactically mess with their opponents in terms of having specific strategies that disrupt opponents game plans and method. But in both games it was us who disrupted their method and refused to let them settle into their preferred method. Scott reckon his players were off at the start. Whilst he is right, the reason they were off is we never allowed them to settle into a rhythm because goody schooled scott (supposedly a tactical genius) tactically. I hope the media point that out, but I won't hold my breath.

I just texted this to a mate who is a big cats fan: 'Scott, who I had warmed to, lost me with his sour, sore loser, press conference - gave us no credit. I suspect there is no love lost between goody and Scott.'

Sorry, but that's a complete load of bollocks. 5-2 not good enough when 2 of those games were against Port and crows at Adelaide oval, the latter off a five day break? And one was against the swans at the scg, which is worth 2 goals to them given how well they play there (particularly defensively) and in slippery conditions? I mean on the same ground yesterday, in much the same conditions, the much vaunted orange tsunami turned into a wavelet and they got smashed. So 5-2 with 3 difficult interstate games and a horrendous schedule is not good enough? On brererton, I'd love to ask his view on the giants given they have already lost to two contenders - not good enough? Or his views on the blues who were 5-2 before the round - not good enough? And now 5-3 - gone? Port were also 5-2 before the round- not good enough? Now 5 -3 - gone? What about the cats derm? They have only beaten ONE team in the 8 - the blues (who just got beaten by the pies for the same reason the cats beat them - they are suspect defensively this season). The cat's other 6 wins are against teams outside the 8, including the winless roos and hapless hawks. Cats not good enough derm?

Bliss. Just started watching the replay. First derm gem: 5-2 is not good enough. Go redleggers.

100% Tbe best he has kicked the ball in any game I have seen him play. A weapon.