binman

I 100% agree with the bolded bit I'd add that it is possible to post constructive criticism of the club AND be positive about our chances. And that's the sort of analysis i prefer - ie balanced and not tilted to extremes. For example i have been very bullish about our chances in the last 3 seasons, but have also been very critical of our kicking skills (as i have been for many years). In my opinion our kicking skills was the number one reason we didn't finish higher than 4th (if say we finished first or second we would have played Port or the Lions at the G week one) and lost our two finals. But as an example of how I assess our chances and look for areas of improvement, one of the reasons i am bullish about our chances this season is that the club has actively looked to address this glaring weakness over the last few seasons. In 2023 they brought in Hunter, in large part because of his foot skills and they drafted the Juddster for the same reason. Ditto for Sestan. This year they traded in Billings becuase he is an excellent kick and IMO is a lock for round one. And they traded in McAdam who is another excellent kick. They drafted the Duke, who by all accounts is a brilliant kick, another lock for round one. And the Colt is another draftee with excellent foot skills. If Salem and Bowser both get a good run at it and get back to their best, Laurie cements himself in the side, Billings and Windsor come into the team, we have added five elite kicks to the team. I'd include JVR as an elite kick and Hunter and Koz both close to elite. So if all those players are in the side we have 8 elite or above average kicks. That's as many as the Pies have. Added to that, based on his beautiful kicking against the tigers, Viney appears to have once again improved his kicking after definitely doing so last season. Suddenly one of the clear advantages the Pies and Lions (and port and the Giants for that matter) had over us last season is negated, or at the least minimised. Hence my confidence we will finish top four.

If i was to guess rooster I would have thought you had us outside the 8. Sixth would bev slide, albeit not a calamitous one and good too see you think there's a chance we finish top of the ladder. I could absolutely see us finishing outside the 8, if like in 2019, we have a horror run with injury. The same is true of any side, including the pies. On maxy, I have been saying for at least 5 years that no one player is as important to a team's chances of success as maxy is to ours. If obviously depends when he got injured, but let's say he missed half a season I think our top 4 chanced are gone. Remarkably given his age, the same is true of the pies if nick daicos misses half the season, such is his importance to them (albeit not ad critical as maxy). However a reasonable counter argument is having maxy out for a block of time might create some positive outcomes - fast tracking verrll for example. I mean, we did pretty well with him not in the side last year. On the flaming, could I respectly suggest that just like the accusations of posters being triggered by what you see as valid criticisms of the club, there is perhaps an element of discouraging push back? Case in point, I think your commemt about 'the train wreck that this club has become over preseason' is hyperbolic and wildly inaccurate. Train wreck? C'mon. But I have no interest in having a dialogue about it because with that as a starting point it will go nowhere 'What else would you call it when......' Any dialogue would quickly descend into accusations of reflexively backing the club an refusing to see reality.

Seriously Roost, show me one example of a single poster saying success 'is just going to happen'. I'm not being facetious, but unless I've missed it I can't recall anyone saying anything vaguely like that. And perhaps I've also missed you being flamed for predicting we will slide. Push back sure, including from me, but flamed? To be clear no predictions about our fortunes in 2024 have been tested - a hit and giggle practice match notwithstanding. We don't know who will be closest to the mark yet. Your predictions of us going backwards may well prove to be correct. On that front, I note you haven't put your flag in the ground with the poll on where we will finish. A healthy 20% of respondents think we will miss the 8 amd and 40% think we will finish 5th to 8th. Which means the 60% agree with your assessment we are likely going backwards this season. That's to say, even if it doesn't feel like it, your views are shared by the majority of posters (yes, small sample, but I don't expect the percentages will change much). It also means that those, like me, who think we will remain one of the best four teams in the competition are in the minority.

Your second, ironically quite long, critique of my posting is noted. If I could be so bold as to offer some advice. Grab a dictionary and read the definitions of excuses and reasons. Check the calender - it's 2024, not 1988. Football has evolved. The old, 'I value the contribution of xxxx, but they post drivel i think is stupid' doesn't scream sincerity, and is an approach best left to 14 year high school kids. If my posts, posting style and opinions, cause you such obvious frustration (as evidenced by going out of your way to criticise me in two posts that had nothing to do with me) perhaps don't read them and/or put me on ignore. Life's too short for unnecessary angst.

Pass mark Winning a final is the minimum after successive straight-sets September exits, but the Demons' list is simply too talented to not be talking premierships in 2024. We have a list that is too talented to not be talking premierships in 2024? I'm guessing the author isn't a Demonland poster.

The weight challenged recluse has sung?

K.

Nah, an old neighbour of mine.

The corresponding pies and blues footy forum poll is: Top 4: 100% 5th to 8th: 0% Missing finals: 0% Winning flag: 100%

Our opponents are ecstatic when it rains.

Well, that's different discussion to whether we will go backwards this year.

As there is every preseason there is lots of chat about how the dees will go this year and whether we fall away (and next to no chat that we might actually improve). Luck plays a big role in winning a flag, but i think we can all agree that key to winning a flag is finishing top 4. I'll post my rationale for this opinion at a later point, but for now i wanted to put my flag in the ground and say that I think we will, for the fourth consecutive season, finish the 2024 home and away season in the top 4. I'm keen to see where the Demonland massive thinks we finish at the end of 2024 home and away season: Top 4 5th-8th Missing finals

Well, it would appear you are not Robinson Caruso. Personally I am a big believer in facts and form. And on both, only the pies could claim to have better form in the last three years. Does that mean we will make top 4 again this year? No of course not. But to be honest the facts mount a much stronger case we will make top 4 than the vibes of supporters who have endured so much heartache that we won't. On that point, is it hyperbole to suggest the last dees squad as consistently successfull as this was the early to mid 60s? Perhaps collectively we are conditioned to expect failure? I wonder if fans of the San Francisco 49ers, on the back of mutiple heartbreaks, assume their team will fall away next season? I suspect not.

Indeed. Shown up? Please. In addition to not having petty and jvr, we didnt have melk available Melk not only would have negated the pies and blues intercept strengths, as one of our best kicks surely would have made a better fist of his scoring opportunities than some of his teammates. And of course losing Gus for all but 7 mins of the pies game, and the clear psychological impact of that incident on the team for a good quater and a half, was another huge factor. How would have the pies gone without Mihocek, Elliot and Johnson (I know mcstay was out, bur so was tmac and brown)?

One of the commentators must have said this 3 or 4 times in the tigers game. Did my head in. Its not untrue I guess, but we made top 4 in the last THREE seasons. For pete's sake, in 2021 we finished the home and away season on top of the ladder and won the bloody flag. Third in 2022 and 4th last year. Not having a shot at you 3183 (i am at the commentator, and Barlow who didn't correct him once), but it is a pretty relevant ommisoon if used as a factor in how we are assessed. Yes we have gone out in straight sets in the last two finals, but three top 4s in succession and a flag is impressive by any measure surely.

Totally agree. If he is fit enough, we can well and truly cover any lack of defensive effort/nous he might have. I have no doubt we have given him a chance for exactly the reason you suggest - he can hit a target. And as important, perhaps more so, weight a kick to a forwards' advantage, a much underrated skill, and one ridiculously few dees players have, including tracc and Oliver. Makes it so much harder for our key forwards. Must do their heads in when we kick to their opponents advantage. Apart from reducing our chances of marks inside 50 it's a big factor in the number of intercept marks we give up.

Competing for the high half forward role. Am I right in thinking he is regarded as having a good tank/is good aerobically? Perhaps I'm imagining that. Nibbla has one of the two HFF roles (maybe 3 if you include an interchange player rolling that role, and perhaps wing too) leaving Spargo, Laurie, Billings, Brown (though he could play closer to goal too) and maybe the colt fighting for let's say two spots.

From memory, on predicted score we were something like plus 20 against the blues in the finals, plus 12 against the Pies and plus 15 against the blues in the home and away game. Cant recall the others, but in the praccy match just gone i suspect the final score pretty much reflected the expected score. BBB's questions - just a coincidence or the oppo getting easier shots at goal on us? - are reasonable. I think the answers are that, no its not a coincidence and no the oppo is not getting easier shots at goal on us (with the exception of the first quarter and a half against the Pies when we lost our defensive shape and they got some easy slingshot goals - hence the high number of set shots on goal they kicked). So why the differential? Applying Occams' razor, the answer is our kicking skills are below AFL average. This is exacerbated by our three best players - Oliver, Trac and maxy - all being woeful shots at goals. By contrast the Pies three best players Nick Daicos, Degoey and Sidebottom/Pendlebury are all brilliant kicks for goals, as is their ruck, Cox. Kicking is our Achilles heal (foot?) and has been for 15 years at least i reckon.

Antiqued and boring is being extremely kind md. Straight up pathetic misogyny. Made worse by making it seem as if SL had made that comment, which I did at first - and was shocked because it was completely out of character for Salem's lot.

I suspect it does for blues fans too - particularly when McKay and Curnow both play.

We hit a number of leading targets and players getting out the back. In fact if I was forced to guess i reckon we might have had more goals from set shots than the tigers.

It might have felt that way, but its not the case that virtually every ball was bombed in. If it was the case it would be reflected in the shots at goal data (also in the charts that show inside 50 entries and where goals were kicked from, which I've seen but couldn't find with a quick search). Given how infrequently we jagged pack marks in those games (or any games really, given how hard it is to take a pack mark these days) and factoring in goals from free kicks and pings from 40 -60 metres, if we bombed it long to a pack say 90% of the time, logic suggests the numbers would be something like: 70% of scores from general play (eg crumbing packs, stoppage goals, running shots etc) 30% from set shots (marks, usually one out or on the lead, and frees). In the blues finals loss we were aprox 50% from general play and set shots. In our loss to the Pies, a game that was high pressure and slippery, we were aprox 40% from general play and 60% from set shots. Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 15 4 9 33 26.7 Carlton 8 3 2 20 37.5 Set Position Melbourne 13 5 6 36 38.5 Carlton 13 8 4 52 61.5 Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 9 3 3 21 33.3 Collingwood 4 2 2 14 50.0 Set Position Melbourne 14 4 5 29 28.6 Collingwood 11 7 3 45 63.6 The bottom line is our method works. Which is why other teams employ it, just at the tigers did yesterday - which is no surprise since they are the originators of the when in doubt get territory strategy that, with pressure, is the foundation of the game circa 2024. It was our accuracy that failed us in the finals not our method.

Sure, agree totally. But it never is, or has been under goody. Nowhere near it. It certainly wasn't anywhere near 90% yesterday. Come the finals last year every team, including the Pies, basically played a variation of the dees game plan, which includes bombing it long into the forward line. But again, none of them do so 90% of the time.

May's got form with rubbish like that. Did on another occasion yesterday- I think aimed at tomo. On his kicking, I wish they made it a team rule that he can only kick it 60 metres plus. He misses a ridiculous number of 15 to 40 metre kicks under no pressure. Like that kick to Bowser.

At least it wasn't Bailey Fridge - son of Ted Fridge and nephew of John Fridge.