binman

Yes, that is very true - he can be a brilliant kick, particularly those penetrating 60 metre bullets that can be so damaging and set up so many scoring chances. His vision is also brilliant. Those kicks are incredible when they come off (but as we saw against the blues, can give the opposition good turnover scoring opportunities when they don’t). Few players in the AFL can hit kicks like that - a factor in the halo effect no doubt. And you're right, his technique, in particular the ball drop, is the issue. Ironically those 60 metres darts are often off one step and slightly accross his body. And his technique is heaps better. He should stick to those kicks. People have talked alot about our forward 'connection" - weird footy speak for the critical last kick inside 50. Tracc acknowledged that kick is an issue for him in the interview posted a few weeks back. And it is - for average kick to score ratio for the kick inside 50 tracc was dead last for us last season. Nibbla was #1. With better kicks like Windsor and billings we will be less reliant on tracc kicking inside 50, which will help with our 'connection' issues. But I'm not really wanting to bag tracc. My initial point was that nibbla is held to a different standard than say tracc. Nibbla is a much better kick than generally given credit for. The data and eyes bear that out. Yes, like tracc and every other player, he miss targets. But also like tracc he is capable of brilliant kicks that set up gilt edged scoring opportunities.

I think tracc is safe from becoming a whipping boy. Of course he is a star. One of the best six players I have seen play at the dees. His score involvements is terrific evidence of how good he is, and how important he is. But that isn't particularly relevant to kicking skills (all players in a scoring chain are credited with an SI). And doesn't change the fact he is a terrible kick.

That's a fair few best 22 to be fair. They need Williams up and about I reckon. They lack a bit of class.

Weird typo by me. I meant more urgent. Tj was the anthisis of urgent.

Absolutely. And it creates a problem for the opponents, which we saw last night. For better or worse, analytics is a big part of the game now. For example the risk reward equation taking on a high risk kick into the corridor (or last year for us trying to pick out a plsyer inside 50 as opposed to bombing long). The risk reward equation is different for each player. For example the blues are desperate to get the ball into saads hand down back. He had the green light to go for the kick to the corridor. But what if they can't get it to Saad? Instead it ends up in the hands of a less skilled player. Do they take the kick to the corridor on? What's the team rule? You could see that hesitation and confusion play out last night. And they didn't really take the corridor on because the risk reward was skewed the wrong way, as evidenced by the 2 or 3 times we intercepted in the middle and scored (I doubt it was more often than that). So, the blues were slowed down and often forces to kicked to an outnumber.

You have to be careful googling the horn effect.

A pure footballer who will be one of the competition stars in 2-3 years. My call that he is arguably the best 21 and under key forward is looking better by the game.

I have a mate who is a big cats fan. He reckons Dangerfield is a shocking kick, but is amazed that he get so little flack from cats fans or the media for his kicking skills. I'll let him know I've found the reason why.

Snap

I'm in the same boat. I think. The reason I say that is I feel like I have developed a bit of a set against him. Perhaps because I was surprised they picked him ahead of spargs late last year. So, I wonder if I sub consciousness underrate him. For instance I was really surprised he had 17 possessions against the tigers. Less surprised that he got 17 yesterday, but he seems to have the knack good players do of accumulating disposals unobtrusively. And crucially, he doesn't waste them. A neat kick who reliably hits targets and makes good decisions. I think he is competing with spargo, who is also a good kick but probably doesn't get enough of the pill. The other thing about Laurie that makes me think I maybe underrate him is the coaches, and goody obviously think highly of him. And of course have all the gps amd orher data we don't have access to. On the gps data, Laurie looks really fit and had slimmed down. We saw last night how effective our all team defensive grid is. The blues looked stuck st times- even when they were desperately trying to get speed on the ball. That defensive grid (which by the by seemed to be set up to invite the corridor kick) requires many players getting to the right spot and heaps of unrewarded running - particularly from the utility types like Laurie, nibbla, langdon, Sparrow etc. Such players need a good tank ability to cover the ground at speed and discipline. All hard attributes to "see". I'm guessing Laurie has developed them.

Agree. I thought he was pretty good. There were a couple of marking contests where he scrapped hard enough to bring the ball to ground. And his two goals were class kicks. On his rucking, i get the knock that he struggles with the physicality aspect, but it's a specialist skill that takes time to develop. It certainly did for JVR. In fact, a better comparisons is probably Joe Daniher, who was woeful in the ruck when they first started using him there, but is now more than serviceable. Happy for him to play forward, and continue to build his ruck craft, with JVR helping out in the ruck occasionally as he did last night. The alternative is flogging JVR and/or brining Fullarton in. The shackster has earned first crack at the forward ruck role IMO.

I really liked what i saw in the middle from Salem. I call it the Salo effect.

Exactamundo. Tomo might struggle to hold his spot down back it Tmac is up and about (big of - and to be honest i prefer tomo anyway, plays within his limitations better) and/or when turner is fit and firing. But plays his role and allows Lever to plays his. And besides no shame in being out marked by Mackay when the ball comes in fast and he is one out.

He's not that tall is he. But he is a big boy. And given he is only 20, by they time he hits his peak at 24-25 and fully fills he is going to be a beast. Alot to like from the the little bit we saw last night i reckon.

That's exactly right - i think that is a key factor in the positive confirmation bias for tracc. Nibbla suffers from whatever the opposite is to the halo effect.

Probably unsurprisingly, I have a different take on why he doesn't get the recognition he deserves. Short version - confirmation bias. As a rule, i rarely visit game day threads once the game begins. But did a couple of times last night- practice game and all that. First post I read (near the end of first q i think) was knocking nibbler's disposal. And yes he missed a couple of kicks inside 50. And I posted, that I agree, then joked, that i misread the post and thought it was about tracc. That's because tracc already had two howlers kicking inside 50. Without a single comment being made. Ironically after that tracc made three even worse howlers (beginning of second q), one of which, a total clanger (missed an open target completely and kicked it straight to a blues player) in the middle of the ground that cost us an easy shot on goal - and they scored on turnover. A potential 12 point play that nibbla would have got roasted for. At half time I checked the stats and tracc was only going at 52% DE. Nibbla, was 72%. . Nibbler hit a number of targets with neat kicks in scoring chains and had at least two direct scoring assist with kicks inside 50. Nibbla had TWICE as many scoring involvements (6 to 3) than tracc - only salo, koz, sparrow and viney had more And nibbla kicked 1.1, whilst tracc didnt bother the scorer (kicking one on the full iirc). Yet there was very little comment, if any, about those excellent kicks and skills by nibbla. Or criticism of track's appalling disposal. Nibbla finished the game on 72.9% DE - the same as salo (tracc improved in the second half, finishing on 65.2%) Note tracc only had 1 more contested possession than nibbla so the data is very comparable (ie nibbla didn't pad his stats with, say easy chip kicks accross hb). Nibbla is a better kick than tracc. Of that there is no doubt. The career data and the eyes completely back that assertion up. But i reckon most fans would disgaree, in large part because of baked in confirmation bias about both players.

Two resolutions this footy season. One, avoid getting worked up about the footy media outside of game day. Key strategy is to avoid footy media. Two, avoid getting worked up about the footy commentary of mathces. Key strategy - be more sanguine. But good lord they make it hard. Dunstall is not a work experience kid on a kayo stream of a practice match at some suburban ground. I assume he is paid pretty well by Fox to provide expert comments. How then does he not know Chandler was a best 22 player for most, if not all, of last season? Just embarrassing to say he rates Chandler and think he will make a case and become a regular best 22 selections? I mean clearly he watches few games other than those he is involved in covering on Fox and does zero research. A little while later Montagna pointed out that Chandler played a key role last season and King reference his leadership.

Snap. Agree, just though the same thing and edited my post accordingly

Nup, not TJ. TJ is an all time fav of mine, and funnily enough would probably suit footy cira 2024 better than when he played with the importance of wingers. And i can see the comparison. But whilst a smooth mover, Windsor strikes me as less, how should i put this - urgent? (was going to stay stoner like) and perhaps more hard it than TJ. And not as fast as Windsor. Also, admittedly from a very limited sample size i'm not sure if Windsor is as good a kick as TJ, perhaps with Wattsy, the best kick i have seen at the dees.

Yep. From our best 22 we were missing Clarry, Petty, Hunter and Melk (and potentially spargs and McAdam?). And of course no BB or Tmac. They had Weitering and Walsh out. I'm not sure if they had other best 22 players out, none were mentioned in the call. Hard to argue they were more undermanned than us i would have thought (Walsh is gun, calrry is better. Weiterng perhaps has Petts covered, both in terms of ability and importance to the team. But no Mcadam or Melk meant we didn't have a medium size defensive forward we like to run with)

That's music to my ears. He looks very fit, so you imagine he'll hit the ground running.

Ta. He might find it hard to get back into the team if Windsor makes the wing his own and billings cements a spot.

I doubt clarry plays, and I hope he doesn't. Agree Billings and Windsor are locks. And I think Howes and Brown will also debut (Brown for koz, comes out round one). I wonder how often it's happened that a top 4 team debuts three draftees in the first game of the following season. If I'm right, and Laurie plays, we will have 7 players 21 and under in our game against the swans: JVR, Bowser, Laurie, McVee, Howes, Windsor and Brown. When you consider that best 22 players in Koz, Sparrow and Rivers are 22, 23 and 22 respectively, we have a very solid core of young players (and petts and chin ate only 24). It's possible we will have 9 players 22 and under against the swans. That's a profile usually only a team in rebuild phase would have. By way of contrast the pies have the oldest list in the AFL. And how many players under 22 running around last night?

Because you're worried about may? He carved up the Coleman medallist and to my eye looked in much better nick than this time last year in terms of mobility (he struggled all last season with glutes and lower back issues) Agree we need to plan for his retirement, but that's a couple of years away at least. And defensively we are in pretty good shape for key defenders going forward. Although Turner is more an intercepting lever type, he'll fill out and i think will be a gun. Adams is bigger and has a future as a lock down key defender. And if petty stays, he can go back.

That is a truly amazing stat. And it's impossible for it to be a statistical anomaly. Sustainaned excellence.