binman

It's weird and my feeling is it a footy thing. Maybe rugby too? Certainly not the case in cricket. As an example once Smith and Warner went out expectations went through the floor. My sense is it doesn't happen in NFL or NBA though stand to be corrected as I don't follow either closely. Not sure about top level soccer. I wonder if it is partly stems from how many players play the game. Most team sports are dependent on key players to score (e.g. striker, quarter back, point guard). Footy is higher scoring, with a bigger spread of scorers and with 22 players each player is not as influential as sports with half that or less on the pitch, court etc

This. In the Wagner's, Lockhardt, Spargo, possibly Stretch, and possibly Smith we have five players who are good VFL players who would not be in the team if we had even a third of our injury list available. Add players like Lewis, Petty (who may not be ready) and Garlett who would not be selected due to form if others were available and that is closing on half a starting 22 who should be playing VFL. That is a bridge too far, pure and simple. I just find it ridiculous that so many that people, including people paid to comment on football, don't understand this is the reason we are not winning games of AFL football. One reason is so many footy media people are ex players and the culture of not blaming injury for poor performance is hard wired in of the DNA of football clubs and footy culture more broadly. Stoopid is as Stoopid does.

Agree on all points. What I'd add is the above list only covers games missed through injury, not the number of players who couldn't build a proper fitness base in the preseason because of surgery or being in rehab. Tmac (despite his comments it is a form issue), Oliver, Melk prior to his injury and Viney have clearly been hampered this season. That's four of our best 10 players. The pies and tigers do have better depth. Who would dispute that. But both teams had good pre seasons in terms of getting miles into the legs of most players. And besides neither club has suffered as badly us injury wise. Melks latest setback (not back until after round 16 according to the hun) is yet another example. The injury worm will turn. Too late for this season, unless a miracle happens. But it will turn. Fitness is another issue. Facts are facts. Players who have interrupted pre seasons will always struggle to get near their optimal fitness during a season. Too much recovery and too little time to focus on fitness.

Our kicking skills are poor. Even worse when you have close to half of your best out. And without reopening an old argument - and reiterating that I respect and understand the decision - tgis is the key reason why I disagreed with the decision to trade watts. Our biggest weakness is our foot skills and we trade our best kick. And by the by on that the Fritsch as replacement argument does not hold up. One because it assumes we could not have got fritsch without trading watts and two even if you think of fritter as a direct replacement he is nowhere near as good a kick as watts.

Don't agree. You may be proven to be correct but way too early to write off our game plan. Way too early. And impossible to make an accurate assessment with so many injured and unfit players. A key issue for us is so the injuries and fitness issues we struggle to negate the spread and keep possession style. Just as we did against West coast in the preliminary because we were cooked. But prior to that we were able to neutralize that approach, most notably against the hawks, with hard running to cover the outlet and hold them up. We did the same against wc, this year and it was instructive that it wasn't until we lost Smith and ANB (and late in the game salem) that they were able to reestablish their game and get on top. Without those injuries our game style would have likely prevailed.

That is simply not true. 6 6 6 has had almost no impact on the game. Classic example of a symptom being ascribed to the wrong cause. It is a coincidence that the strategy to keep possesion is becoming the dominant strategy. West Coast employed it last year, won a premiership and as always occurs others ate now following, most notably the pies who lost the grand final.

On the couch had a fascinating stat on Monday. The 2 teams that move the ball slowest as measured by play on from mark or free are the top 2 on the ladder. And the inverse is almost the same. We are one are one of the quickest teams and are near the bottom of the ladder Added to that the cats, pies, eagles and to a lesser extent gws are all high possession sides who simply deny the opposition the ball and more than happy to chip it around their defensive 50 and use the width of the ground. This represents a significant tactical shift in the game away from our and richmonds approach. The tigers team have been rhe strategic benckmhmark in the last 2 years (even last year - easy to forget that prior to being been by the pies in the finals they were the overwhelming favorites to win the flag as they had been all year). The real question is will the slow, maintain possession style (a staple of soccer for forever and a day - for good reason as your opposition can't score if you have the ball) will prove to be the premiership wimning model in the next few years. Leaving that question aside we are spectacularly ill equpied for that strategy as it relies on excellent kicks and players with enough pace to recreate a marking, outlet option. Our kicking is appalling. On our list the ONLY two players I trust with ball in hand is omac and salem. That's it.

And given the ball will be on the deck quite a bit we'll also miss his ability to bend down and collect ground balls. Might miss his elite pointing ability as well.

If spargo plays they play a short player

Have you not heard, or perhaps seen with your own eyes thst the 6-6-6 rule has made almost no impact on how the game is played.

And it was instructive that goody in his presser i think for the first time, listed all the players out and those whose return is imminent.

And without Salem was literraly the only defendwe you could rely to kick it to a teammate

Agree on firts three points. Not sure i agree with the last Before he got injured last year he was starting to play really well and much more fluent and instinctive. But seems so hesitant now. Needs to release the ball more quickly and take the game on and break some lines. Those issues were on display again yesterday, though there was couple of occasions where he did kick quickly. On improvement i think it is dependent on his mindset. If he he can free up a bit and have the confidence to attack then he could well improve. And to be honest that is the coaching staff's job to help him get his mind right. I would have dropped him after WC but was ok yesterday and with our injuries gets his chance to make a case to stay in the idea. I hope he takes the chance as i think the talent is there.

Three things

I reckon that is huge for us. The ground won't be soft, not nearly enough rain and the G drains incredibly well. We are a much better chance if it is dry during the game.

A very reasonable perspective and one that is hard to argue with. I'm probably a bit guilty of marking jeffy a bit hard in terms of his contests. I guess my concern is that it is becoming a pattern rather than a one off. But perhaps he's conscious of not damaging the shoulder he hurt pre season. I'll cut him slack.

Shirking contests is the biggest issue for mine. Has done so in all 3 matches since his return

No, but I suspect teams will be finalised today so the players won't know the final line up yet (but will before it is announced tonight obviously)

I thought Wagner but you're probably right as Greene is a strong bigger and excellent over head. Might need horse's height and strength. That said he has playing am important role as an intercept mark player and not sure if he could afford to zone Greene.

Harmes would be in no doubt about his position in the team. He knows he is a total lock. It would more be about ensuring a player like Smith isn't worried about his spot, which no doubt he would have if both he and weed were named on the bench.

Speaking of the rain, i really hope it holds off until after the game (or until half way through the last when we have 4 goal lead). I'm firmly of the view that contrary to popular belief wet weather adavantages teams with good skills. And Gws are probably the most skilled side in the league. Wet weather makes executing skills more difficult and so it stands to reason good technique mitigates against that factor - and vice versa. In addition to having poor skills we have a game style (ie quick hands, chains of handball etc) that works better for us in dry conditions.

Id pick harmes (of course), wagner (need him for greene), Fritsch (so lucky we have so many injuries, would play him at wing or half forward where is best suited) and I can't believe I'm saying this Lewis (he allows fritter to move up the ground and provides some experience in a very young back line - but goes out when lever comes in). Stretch has had his chance and needs to go back and learn to release the quickly and instinctively. Slowed our forward momentum against wc a number of times, which really stood out as we were obviously instructed to play on whenever possible. If he can't sort that aspect of his game i can't see him playing AFL again. I've cooled on Pruess. Good back up for maxy but simply not mobile enough and fast enough to play as a semi permanent forward. Particularly against gws who love to run it off hb. The predicted wet weather doesn't help his cause either. I reckon goody will pick Harmed, Wagner, Fritter and Lewis.

That is incredible. I remember all the talk about but had forgotten how big the differential was. Talk about a statistical outlier.

Agree. And if he shuts him down will go a long way to helping us win. Coniglio is critical to them. Like someone else mentioned stopping Greene is crucial. All year it has been the mid size and small forwards that have really hurt us, not the bigs. Not sure who gets him. Certainly not fritter. Wagner will get the gig is my guess.

I'm finding it very difficult to remain positive.......