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Everything posted by binman
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Is play-on at all costs still the way to go?
binman replied to At the break of Gawn's topic in Melbourne Demons
That is simply not true. 6 6 6 has had almost no impact on the game. Classic example of a symptom being ascribed to the wrong cause. It is a coincidence that the strategy to keep possesion is becoming the dominant strategy. West Coast employed it last year, won a premiership and as always occurs others ate now following, most notably the pies who lost the grand final. -
On the couch had a fascinating stat on Monday. The 2 teams that move the ball slowest as measured by play on from mark or free are the top 2 on the ladder. And the inverse is almost the same. We are one are one of the quickest teams and are near the bottom of the ladder Added to that the cats, pies, eagles and to a lesser extent gws are all high possession sides who simply deny the opposition the ball and more than happy to chip it around their defensive 50 and use the width of the ground. This represents a significant tactical shift in the game away from our and richmonds approach. The tigers team have been rhe strategic benckmhmark in the last 2 years (even last year - easy to forget that prior to being been by the pies in the finals they were the overwhelming favorites to win the flag as they had been all year). The real question is will the slow, maintain possession style (a staple of soccer for forever and a day - for good reason as your opposition can't score if you have the ball) will prove to be the premiership wimning model in the next few years. Leaving that question aside we are spectacularly ill equpied for that strategy as it relies on excellent kicks and players with enough pace to recreate a marking, outlet option. Our kicking is appalling. On our list the ONLY two players I trust with ball in hand is omac and salem. That's it.
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And given the ball will be on the deck quite a bit we'll also miss his ability to bend down and collect ground balls. Might miss his elite pointing ability as well.
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If spargo plays they play a short player
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Have you not heard, or perhaps seen with your own eyes thst the 6-6-6 rule has made almost no impact on how the game is played.
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And it was instructive that goody in his presser i think for the first time, listed all the players out and those whose return is imminent.
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And without Salem was literraly the only defendwe you could rely to kick it to a teammate
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Agree on firts three points. Not sure i agree with the last Before he got injured last year he was starting to play really well and much more fluent and instinctive. But seems so hesitant now. Needs to release the ball more quickly and take the game on and break some lines. Those issues were on display again yesterday, though there was couple of occasions where he did kick quickly. On improvement i think it is dependent on his mindset. If he he can free up a bit and have the confidence to attack then he could well improve. And to be honest that is the coaching staff's job to help him get his mind right. I would have dropped him after WC but was ok yesterday and with our injuries gets his chance to make a case to stay in the idea. I hope he takes the chance as i think the talent is there.
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Three things
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I reckon that is huge for us. The ground won't be soft, not nearly enough rain and the G drains incredibly well. We are a much better chance if it is dry during the game.
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A very reasonable perspective and one that is hard to argue with. I'm probably a bit guilty of marking jeffy a bit hard in terms of his contests. I guess my concern is that it is becoming a pattern rather than a one off. But perhaps he's conscious of not damaging the shoulder he hurt pre season. I'll cut him slack.
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Shirking contests is the biggest issue for mine. Has done so in all 3 matches since his return
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No, but I suspect teams will be finalised today so the players won't know the final line up yet (but will before it is announced tonight obviously)
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I thought Wagner but you're probably right as Greene is a strong bigger and excellent over head. Might need horse's height and strength. That said he has playing am important role as an intercept mark player and not sure if he could afford to zone Greene.
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Harmes would be in no doubt about his position in the team. He knows he is a total lock. It would more be about ensuring a player like Smith isn't worried about his spot, which no doubt he would have if both he and weed were named on the bench.
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Speaking of the rain, i really hope it holds off until after the game (or until half way through the last when we have 4 goal lead). I'm firmly of the view that contrary to popular belief wet weather adavantages teams with good skills. And Gws are probably the most skilled side in the league. Wet weather makes executing skills more difficult and so it stands to reason good technique mitigates against that factor - and vice versa. In addition to having poor skills we have a game style (ie quick hands, chains of handball etc) that works better for us in dry conditions.
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Id pick harmes (of course), wagner (need him for greene), Fritsch (so lucky we have so many injuries, would play him at wing or half forward where is best suited) and I can't believe I'm saying this Lewis (he allows fritter to move up the ground and provides some experience in a very young back line - but goes out when lever comes in). Stretch has had his chance and needs to go back and learn to release the quickly and instinctively. Slowed our forward momentum against wc a number of times, which really stood out as we were obviously instructed to play on whenever possible. If he can't sort that aspect of his game i can't see him playing AFL again. I've cooled on Pruess. Good back up for maxy but simply not mobile enough and fast enough to play as a semi permanent forward. Particularly against gws who love to run it off hb. The predicted wet weather doesn't help his cause either. I reckon goody will pick Harmed, Wagner, Fritter and Lewis.
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That is incredible. I remember all the talk about but had forgotten how big the differential was. Talk about a statistical outlier.
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Agree. And if he shuts him down will go a long way to helping us win. Coniglio is critical to them. Like someone else mentioned stopping Greene is crucial. All year it has been the mid size and small forwards that have really hurt us, not the bigs. Not sure who gets him. Certainly not fritter. Wagner will get the gig is my guess.
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I'm finding it very difficult to remain positive.......
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I might be wrong on this but my memory is that we had a pretty bad run with interrupted preseasons (TMac, Viney, hogan and others ?) and in season injuries (Gawn, Viney, Smith, VDB and others?) in 2017 and came with a late burst to almost sneak into the finals. Even last year we got Viney and AVB back near the end of the season and we looked pretty fit come finals time. The season is incredibly long and taxing the way the game is played now. The running the all team offence and defence systems demand has a huge impact on all players as does the ballistic nature of footy. Pies and cats are flying now but they might cop their injuries at the back end of the season, as might the Lions who have had a great run with injury. Just as we are coming good!
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Agree BB. As I have banged on about quite a bit this season having big numbers of interrupted pre seasons AND in season injuries is the key reason we have struggled (there are others of course but often they are symptom nor cause e.g. inability to execute game plan). It has always been thus and I find it funny that the footy culture of soldier out, soldier in tricks people in underestimating the impact of those two factors. And the impact is felt all season as as you say players usually take time to get back to their best and some simply don't until the following season (Assuming they have a good pre season and no more injury). It also takes time for the team gel, and that is particularly an issue for the defence as synergy is so important. And we have four first pick defenders to come back in. All that said, if we get most players back and have no more key players go down, IF we somehow made the finals we have time for it all to come together. We only have to look at the bullies gf win for evidence to support that idea.
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You are one angry poster dd. You get points for being consistent.
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Annoyed this game is on at the same time as the seniors. Live nearby and would have gone. Great ground on the rare occasions it is not blowing a game.