binman

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I wasn't sure, but just received this missive from happy Garry Baker avatar: G'day bin, I hope you are well in this tricky times. Convince your betting partner to back the dees at the +6.5 line tonight (20 units @ $1.90), to win by more than 24.5 points (5 units and should get $8) and over 39.5 (2 units @ $15). Why? Because the odds for this match are out of wack. I'd have this match at even money, so $2.25 for the dees is way overs. And as i keep telling you punting is all about getting value. On the game i think we will win, and win well. Why? We played well last week, and got stronger as the game went on The power got over run on their home deck and looked out of gas We are fitter and have close to a full list to choose from Port are looking a bit cooked, rely on three young players for much of their spark and energy and one of them is not playing Whilst we have a four day break and they are coming off a five day break, they had to fly out from SA and we caught a bus home Playing the gabba is practically a home game for us I was never super confident last week - the lions are a serious side, but more the point they have very similar strengths to us - intensity, good at the contest, and a strong midfield The opposite is true of port - our mids will smash theirs and with Maxy giving ruck lessons we will dominate clearances They don't have two big monsters - or with Lycett out, even one - whose sole job is to smash into Maxy all night Their strength is how well they move the ball when on - and when they are on they play an attractive, free flowing game, which is what they will look to do Which perfectly suits us as our all team zone defence will frustrate their ball movement (and players) and a fast game will create space for us on the counter - our game plan works best when opposition teams go fast A weakness of theirs is their defence as it relies very heavily on their zone to work, in large part because Jonas is their only decent big defender Watch our forward half set up - we have had a big focus in the last few weeks to set up very wide of each other, which stretches opposition zones, creates one on ones (which we have been looking for with long kicks to the pockets) and creates space that allow players to lead into We have worked really hard to use that extra space to put that last kick inside 50 to a player in the corridor, like the one Oliver kicked to Melksham/Langdon last week - port will struggle to stop this kick as well as the lions did I wasn't sure about Tmac coming in but he he will give us much more physical grunt than Harley and three big forwards will stretch them on what should be a beautiful night for football (though perhaps a bit dewy in the second half) Tmac wil also provide another option for the down the line kick - which Maxy will appreciate With Marshall a (key) out they rely on Dixon - who is in awesome form it must be said, love how he plays and love his beard - but in May we have the perfect foil and Lever and Omac will look to spoil at every opportunity Defensively our weakness is smalls and mediums - but whilst Gray is ok he is not the threat he once was and Rozee is quality but hibbo can deal with him The Burgess 4 day factor - we will be ready to roll and i love the fact they have made noise about this - smart and a great message to send to opposition teams. it is no coincidence they chose burgess to to do the talking points interview this week, and no surprise that he directly spoke to our preparation for 4 day breaks (the planning for which commenced in the covid break and even after it seemed there would not be a need for a compressed fixture) They didn't pick jack Watts Dees by 31 points

One outcome of the current outbreak in Melbourne is that, just as with other outbreaks around the world, it provides key data and information to build their understanding of how it transmitted, in what conditions and in what environments. And what the evidence appears to be clearly demonstraing is That almost all transmission is occurring in clusters and is spread indoors and when people are spending an extended time together in tbat space. In workplaces, family homes, schools, aged care facilities etc. Indoors where people spend a block of time together (ie close contacts). Despite it now being clear there was community transmission when the black lives matter march happened here thete has not been a single transmission traced to it. And that is despite 2 people who tested positive who were there (And who knows how many others who didnt get tested). And think of how many people were out and about in shops, supermarkets, malls etc just prior to lockdown when we now know there were a lot of positive cases in the community Of course random transmission is posiible and like you im not downplaying the risk. My family and I have followed every gov direction in this lockdown and the first one. And will continue to do so. I've barely left the house in weeks. I work in community services and my wife in aged care. I know the impact this virus can have on vulnerable communities. Amd I fully support this lockdown and the measures that are in place. But it seems pretty clear that the risk of transmission is low in outdoor settings, particularly if people are spaced apart. So in a state like QLD where there is statistical almost zero positive cases you could not get a safer place than at the footy in the outer. The crowd number almost wouldn't matter to to say 10, 000 as there would barely be any jams of people and once seated it only those in your vicinity you might have contact with. You are at much greater risk in your office, classroom or family home. Sad to say. Though of course everywhere but Melbourne and Sydney that risk is currently extremely very low. Have a great time at the footy. I have to say of all the things I missing atm - live music, catching up with mates, enjoying a punt and a beer at my local, being out and about - the thing I miss the most is going to the footy. So I will enjoy it vicariously though the dees fans there and look forward to hearing you all in the effects mike and reading your comments on dl. You are our proxies! Go redlegs!

Terrific. Can I ask a favour. Two actually. At some point get near the effects mike that is sure to be close by. And when there is lull, yell GO REDLEGGERS super loud. And when we kick away in last quarter yell PERCENTAAAAAAAGE! super loud right after we snag a goal

The MFC principle of relativity I believe it is called

You do know it's not real lava don't you LG....

Going Brady?

Good point. Though I still reckon from a health and safety perspective it is strange move as the roos have to take two more flights than they otherwise would have. Surely to goodness they would want to minimize travel where possible. Ok for the dees though. I heard talk there is a hotel at, or right next to the ground now. Not sure if true but even if not we will probably be I walking distance to the ground. Four days in a nice hotel and a stroll to the ground. If we played in qld we'd be facing up to a four hour round bus trip.

A bit surprised tmac comes in. George on the outer got it right on the dl podcast. He also made the point that they have a sketchy backline, particularly in terms of their bigs. Even thougj I expect tmac to play high half forward, almost a winger (which is how bennell was used) the three talls will really stretch their defence. Should have guessed benell might be out, one for management but more that I doubt goody would have been thrilled with his intensity. One example stood out - his half hearted attempt to tackle 'Rainer man' (Gerard please stfu) who bounced off him and went inside 50. Like swallow in. New players bring an energy. Expect he will plays jetts role.

Good point. Tmac should be able take his share of down the line kicks from defence and give maxy a much needed chop out. Brisbane smashed him at every opportunity. The blues raised the issue of the treatment cripps cops, and no doubt with justification. But I doubt there is a player in the league that cops what maxy does. Im sure he wouldn't want it raised but the AFL should with the umpires, behind closed doors.

Great.

Seriously what the hell is that about. Surely that can't be right. Both metricon and the Gabba are free on the Sunday. What possible benefit is that to anyone? And leaving fairness aside, from a risk perspective it is completely ridiculous as it about 70 odd people traveling interstate with all the attendant flights, contact with people at airports etc etc. Talk about being shafted.

I though the roos are in the same resort as us

3.18 mins of blues 'highlights' for the self flagellators among us. It features just two kicks from player in a Melbourne jumper. Importantly though it is representative. 50% DE and 50% kicked the our forwards disadvantage. Fun times https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/783199/reserves-highlights-scratch-match-v-melbourne-?videoId=783199&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1595748773001

His name is Kysaiah. Sheesh

Really terrific post A F. I read the stats after the game on scrolling across the bottom of the screen and was amazed how close almost all were, which is why the ground ball differential jumped out. Realised i must have misread the clearances when i read WJ's post a little while ago with that stat. You are right we got smashed didn't we. Totally agree on what that would have meant for us in previous seasons and how much our defence must have approved to avoid that. I made the point in another post that our defence has been terrific all season, and even last year really. When was the last time we were flogged? Teams are finding it super hard to score against us. Have done since mid 2018 Kept us in that game yesterday. Credit where it is due, a big reason why our defence works so well is the zones, systems and structure Goody has put in place, and not just those in the back six. Look at how often teams get stuck now moving it forward. And i total agree we our fence should be a bit bolder with their ball movement and taking the game on. I was thinking exactly that in the second quarter. May looks to sometimes, Omac less so and Lever never. On Lever (who i think has been really good in the last few games). He often does not even look to the fat side and just goes down the line very time. Often to max, but even if he marks it the opposition are all set up on that side. Ironically on the utterly stupid and frustrating score review we took an attacking option only for it to come back and have that option taken away (hear that Alanis, that is ironic)

Spot on. Silly example from me. His effort was awesome in that example. Was busting a gut. He has been fantastic the last two weeks. Good doctor if you reading this i'm well on board the oliver train. How about you give a one off amnesty to all the non believers. I'll join your crusade against any future doubters. If you need a reference, please see my history of impassioned defense for number 28 (who i do note you are pretty harsh on - but believe me you will come around). Now about that gus fella.....

Burning Hannan was a really bad mistake. A mistake he compounded by missing a soda with his shot (by a fair margin it must be said). An absolute gimme goal if he handballs (even a poor one) as there was not Lions player in coee of Hannan. A strange decision as he surely he saw him and so far in his (very) shorter career has often looked to give it off as the first option. So much so that a few times i've thought just take the shot yourself Kossie. A rush of blood, which happens for young players, but it was terrible timing as we had finally got back into the match and were starting to swarm them. And simply couldn't take advantage of that pressure.

Could not agree more.

Top post. Pretty much how i saw the game. Totally agree with the comment that unlike last week we had too many passengers. And on who did. What did you make of Jones's game?

Only if i can share a cigarette lighter with a colleague. Too soon?

We obviously see that one differently. Happy to agree to disagree on that one For mine, no way was kicking it off the ground the right play. Very low percentage and high risk for almost no reward. Particularly because if he had picked it up he could have still got it to Langdon. And also would have the choice to milk a free, force a ball up or hit it through for a point. As it was he cost us a goal. On Cameron you right he was pretty quiet up til then (though it is worth noting that by games end he was their leading scorer with 2.2) but it has to be said jetts spent a fair bit of time off the ground in the first half. And it was instructive that immediately after the choice not to pick it up and gifting Cameron a goal they moved him off him and put Hibberd on him. And i don't think he played on him again for the rest of the match. Given that goal was in the first half (i think?) Jetts didn't actually spend that much time on Cameron.

Disappointing loss? Well i was very, very disappointed but i'm not sure it was too disappointing. Semantic distinction perhaps. We'll see. I'll keep Grapeviney's seat warm this week and channel his cautious positivity to counter any veil of negativity that might be present. I reckon if i am in the hosting seat and therefore can't call (which is why we lost of course) we need a caller, so when we win this Thursday night they become the lucky charm. Not that i'm in any superstitious.

Nup. But you might have missed his first which was result of Jetta having no confidence picking the ball up off the ground and instead of doing so gifting a goal by kicking it out of bounds deliberately. Perhaps he was trying go for a point but that may still have been a free against. it goes without saying that the play was to pick it up, absorb the tackle an either lock it in or give it to the free player next to him. Something he would have 999 times out 1000 in his career. You don't drop a player for the one mistake of course, but as much as i love Jetts but he is off the pace at the moment and is the weakest link in our back six. I expect he'll be dropped and would not be surprised if he doesn't get another shot at it this year.

Seriously Buzzy? He is literally just reactive and slow as a person? He plays one of the hardest positions in the side, one that requires an elite ability to read the play and know where to be. As evidence of this ability his captain has said he is the best reader of the game in the team and has been effusive in his praise for omac and the key role he plays in the defense unit. The proof is in the pudding, we have looked much, much better since he has come in to the team. Only someone who doesn't get it would suggest that is happenstance. And leaving his role and importance in the structure aside has he done his job as key defender. His direct opponents have barely taken a mark or kicked a goal on him this year. Don't believe me? Go back and look a the stats of his opponents. And then compare those to stats to his much more highly paid and rated teammates Lever and may How many goals did Mcstay kick yesterday? That's right zero. And he only took 3 marks for the game, with only one being contested (that last one). Compare that to Hipwood who was May's opponent. May did a good job, no one has suggested he didn't. But his opponent kicked a goal and took two contested marks, one being a critical one in the last quarter where string bean hipwood beat him dead to rights one on one. And May cost us the first goal of the game with yet another shocking turnover, this one under no pressure from a kick out. Given you assessment of Omac his hundredth game of AFL football next year will come as surprise to you. Sanctimonious? Perhaps. Be that as it may, you simply don't get it.