binman

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

So we’ve gone from 1st to 18th for last qtrs the last 6 weeks and you’re just blaming it on young players? You know North still had more young players and less games experience than us right? 

The last six weeks is the key here.

We have struggled for that exact block of time in and around the bye since 2021. 

My explanation as to why is well documented.

To that I'd add nearly half the team are kids.

Two of the starting 22 against lions are in their first season of AFL season, meaning the kolt and Windsor as draftees, have not even completed a full AFL preseason.

And we lost salo and bowey ahead of the game, one a senior seasoned AFL player, the other young but has 50 plus games and 3 AFL preseasons under his belt.

AND we were coming off a six day break, and had to travel.

Is it any wonder we flagged a bit in rhe last quarter?

12 minutes ago, Canplay said:

Trade bait

Fair dinkum, that's just plain silly.

Not that we would look to trade him.

But that salo would be some sort of sought after 'trade bait', implying we would could put him up for a trade and get some sort of windfall in return.

I mean, the first two posts in this thread both make good points.

Points other clubs thinking of chasing him would well and truly agree with.

As if another club would give up anything valuable, either a yrade or picks, for a player in the back half of his career with a history of a thyroid issue and various injuries.

What did we got for jordon, a young player, albeit probably not in salo's class, with no injury issues who has been able to slot into the best 22 of the team on top of the ladder?

7 hours ago, Hiram Cowfreak said:

Never seen the name Nuocleous before but like it so much l say let’s take him early in the next draft

You could build a side around him.

Just now, binman said:

Number two is total sprints 

1 minute ago, binman said:

The telstra tracker is just about the best publicly available indicator I can find that gives a sense of where we are it in terms of running on top of the ground and our fitness level.

Near the end of the first quarter I checked the numbers to test my sense that we looked in good shape.

When we are, we almost dominate the top 5 in a number of categories 

Number one is for average speed in defence (which is defined as when the oppo have the ball). When we do, its a goody indicator our all team defence is on. These are the numbers near the end of quarter 

Number two is total sprints 

5 hours ago, dino rover said:

We played much better 

more tackling pressure and run which supports the @binman thesis that post loading our energy levels are at full capacity 

look at the cattle they have in the fwd line though - hate their guts but Rainer hipwood Daniher and Cameron et al are a strong combination 

had they kicked better….

 

The telstra tracker is just about the best publicly available indicator I can find that gives a sense of where we are it in terms of running on top of the ground and our fitness level.

Near the end of the first quarter I checked the numbers to test my sense that we looked in good shape.

When we are, we almost dominate the top 5 in a number of categories 

Number one is for average speed in defence (which is defined as when the oppo have the ball). When we do, its a goody indicator our all team defence is on. These are the numbers near the end of quarter 

17 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I’m an optimist like you Binman, but I can’t see us playing finals this year and that’s ok.

I was really impressed with how our young side took it up to the Lions, with some good games from our senior players. I was expecting a 4-5 goal loss, and after getting over the close loss I was proud of the effort.

I’d be interested to know the age differences between the two sides.

Fair points.

I think in the context of young players, its worth considering the impact of no salo or bowey.

Bowey is young, but up to rhe critical 50 game mark. And salo is obviously a well seasoned player.

Both were essentially replaced by inexperienced kids. 

In hindsight, I would have preferred laurie be the emergency as would have provided more flexibility and experience than pup, is physically stronger and has four AFL presasons under his belt to pups one.

What would have happened if pup had to dome on in say the first quarter?

10 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

You're probably right, but some of the transition footy, I suspect, was more a result of trying to exploit Brisbane's inability to defend transition and that if we were playing a better defensive team, we'd rely more on stoppages and forward half turnovers for scores.

That handball chaining from half back is very 2022 MFC.

Our pressure ratings are also way down consistently these days. We rarely win the quarter for pressure and certainly rarely win the game for pressure.

The handball chaining looks to be something they are really workomg hard to implement this season. Very noticeable, right back to the Tigers practice match.

Still very much a work in progress, and super frustrating to watch when it comes unstuck (KICK IT!!!!), but if we get it right, like we did in the second quarter, it is a real point of difference with other teams. 

For it work optimally, we need to be running in waves. And fir that we need be close to optimal fitness.

13 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

Daniher and the umps must have thought it was rugby too, when Daniher

grabbed Nibbler’s foot. The trip occurred 2 metres in front of one of the umpires.

If that free gets paid for tripping we are a good chance of winning the game as we would have had the opportunity to maintain possession for the last 90 seconds.

25 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

Pretty solid unexpected hit from the [censored]. Not sure Kolt’s had too many of those (from the ones who know how to do them “properly”), so prepared to give the benefit of the doubt. 
 

Edit: are we really censoring the word that starts with F and rhymes with “log” now? That is somewhat hilarious. 

And how much is people's view of that incident coloured by the over the top reaction and accusation of staging by the commentator?

They only showed a replay once and it didn't look like he staged or flopped to me.

But I do agree on the high press. A combination of setting the defence deep and then pressing up quite aggressively. Particularly in the first half.

Forcing us to have to work back hard on turnover- something we struggled to do in the last quarter.

That is another difference to the old goody game plan.

9 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Our ground ball gets were back. We definitely went back to an old bash and crash contested forward half game. Similar to our 2018 style and Richmond's 2017-2020 formula. I'd much prefer to exploit McQualter's IP in this department.

I wonder if this was a function of a more aggressive, higher press? No idea, just wondering. I hadn't noticed coast to coast goals, let alone 3!

I don't actually think we did BPA - go back to our old model. At least not fully

Agree we were much more contest focused, more stoppages focused, went long down the line a bit more, and played that manic tigers template footy (all hallmarks of the traditional goody model). 

But, as evidenced by the stats (eg our time in forward half, inside 50 and intecept mark numbers - stat's we always dominated when our old method was humming) the method was a hybrid with the transition game we are implementing.

That's how we scored in the second quarter- transition footy combined with manic intensity.

For what it's worth, that's the model I see us playing come finals, with perhaps more emphasis on winning time in forward half and inside 50s.

12 minutes ago, Deesprate said:

With this many variables why would anyone bet on footy. At least with horses you have a pretty clear path of preparation and only one selection which is complicated b 23 individuals all coming off a different plan.

That variability is the key reason why I don't bet on footy as much during the bye phase of the season.

One example- lions scored 152 points last week at Adelaide oval against port. Are port really that bad? Are the lions really that good

At home, in perfect conditions against a team further down the ladder than port (one, even most of its fans gave no hope too and started 5.35. Port were favourites to beat the lions) the lions could only manage just under half tthat. And almost got rolled.

One thing that variability at this time of year does create is opportunity. 

Because unlike horse racing (my other sporting passion) most footy punters don't factor in the training program as a variable. No one expects a Melbourne cup winner to win first up at 1400, no matter how much better than they are than their opponents. 

In my assessment we were great value last night at the 30 point line because they are not a five goal better team than us and believe we planned our program to be closer to our optimal fitness for this game (im not being smart after the fact - I made that exact point on the podcast. And it would be hard to argue I wasn't proved correct given how the game played out).

Similarly, port being givem a +3.5 line against the saints is overs because lots of punters are basing their assessment on port being smashed by the lions last week.

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

I do actually buy memberships, go to games, go to Casey watch magoos! Go to alternate grounds as well,some REFUSE to go to Casey coz its too far. That's all I'll say!

I know you do. And that's great - i wasn't suggesting otherwise.

I was merely pointing out critising the club on demonland, even if that criticism is justifiable, is not being 'part of the solution' in so far as it has zero impact on how the club performs.

2 hours ago, SPC said:

One thing that is clear is that we need leadership in our front half. I would play Petty back for the rest of the year and TMAC forward. TMAC has been outstanding, but we need his presence to help JVR and Turner

Based on goody's presser he won't be changing the forward line set up.

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

It’s time we question our fitness and conditioning and get some fresh faces in this area in 2025.

Our fourth quarters have been a total shambles this year  

Thoughts @binman?

I think it is totally reasonable to question the high performance program. Fitness is clearly an issue for us.

I wish a reporter would ask that exact question

But what I would say is that it is really hard to make a reasoned assessment of the high performance program because there is so much we don't know and so little analysis by the media about clubs high performance programs in general.

So for example, we can see we are not yet fit enough to run out games. 

But what is not clear is the impact of internal, behind the scene factors (that we as fans uusually know nothing about - eg motivation of players, niggles they might be carrying etc) or the impact of factors that we do know about, for example:

- goody has emphasised trying to engineer playing our best footy in the back half of the season: has this philosophy informed our high performance program's planning (logic would suggest yes)?

- we are playing a modified method, less reliant on winning the contest: how has that impacted a program that had previously emphasised power?

-our schedule had been nuts, and we have had two byes: how has that impacted planning?

- we lost two of our fittest, best 22 senior players in gus and Smithy in the off season. And you could add a third in melk, and a 4th in Ben bBrown (and salo and lleverhave both missed 4 games too): that's huge in terms of the teams overall fitness, not least because they have had basically had to be replaced by young players; but how big an impact has that had?

- mutiple players had interrupted preseasons: we know that always had an impact oon overall teams ffitness  how much of an impact had had it on us?

- we have carried two players in petts and Clarry who have been a long way from optimal fitness (with the goal of being fit as possible in the second half of the year - positive signs last night on that front): it must have an impact on our capacity to run out games as a whole, but how much?

- we had 10 players in the team last night, nearly half, who have played less than 50 games. And we had three players in their first season of AFL football: we know endurance and strength develop from a base and each preseason players start at a new level of fitness, ie its accumulative: what is the impact of having so many players in the side comming off only one, two or three preseasons? Or even dealing with the rigours of half a season of AFL football and needing to back up week in, week out?

- how much does the program have to be adjusted when so many young players are in the 23?

So many variables. 

Sure work rate is party mental, but the reality is if players are leg tired no amount of will power will help them cover the ground at pace, which is what is required of all players to make any method work.

I'm hopeful that we will be much better at running out games and much closer to optimal fitness as a whole group, pretty much from this point on.

I think we saw the start of that improvement last week and even more so last night.

I mean how could anyone watch the second quarter, how we were running in waves, creating overlap and transitioning wnd to end, amd compare it to say the freo game where looked like we had lead in our boots, and think our fitness isn't on an upward trajectory?

11 hours ago, Nascent said:

Salem and bowey the obvious candidates to come in. Would love for Tholstrup and AMW to retain their spots. Await the vfl game but suspect only Bill and Jefferson the other possible candidates.

Add salo and bowey to that team and it looks a lot stronger.

I can't see amw or kolt getting dropped. 

Perhaps woey and pup come out and amw is the sub.

29 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

"My expectations were we set ourselves for this game and that we would see a much more dynamic team running over the ground better and being better in the contest."

 

The players are highly paid professionals. Shouldn't this be a given every week?

 

 

I meant set ourselves physically in terms of the high performance program and load management, ie being as fresh as possible for this game.

21 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

No legs, ran out of gas like last week and went defensive - didn’t want to take a risk in case we turned it over cos it would be a certain goal the other way as no one could get back to cover. 

There was at least 3 times they got it off us and it was 3 on 1 in their forward line cos no one could get back to help. Same as last week they were cooked but this time we didn’t have a big enough lead. 

Still [censored] off they didn’t pay May the mark on our half forward line, instead of him kicking it to the top of the square it’s down the other end. 

Agree on all of the above.

On the may non mark, what is so galling is they pay a mark like the one to the big one near the end of the first q, which was marginal on terms of him controlling the ball. And may controls it for longer- and doesn't get paid.

The inconsistentcy is infuriating.

Same goes for riv running too far. There wasn't really another that wasn't paid in tgis match but games plsyers get away with running further mutiple times.

17 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

Did we not review last week's final quarter where we failed to kick a goal?

I just don't understand how it happens 2 weeks in a row

This is my explanation.

Last week we didn't score a point in the last quarter because we completey ran out of gas because we trained hard in our bye period and set ourselves for this game.

Last night we also ran out of gas, though nowhere near as much. The six day break and travel was no doubt a factor.

Last week maxy said an issue in the roos scoring we were trying to score too much rather than control the tempo. That's to say we let the game open up

And so this we tried to control the tempo in the last mote effectively. And did a good job of doing so for much of the last quarter.

The critical problem was missing  four very gettable goals in the last quarter - petty, clarry, langers and fritter.

Kick one of them and we likey win (or perhaps draw in fritters case). 

2 minutes ago, picket fence said:

And if you aren't part of the solution then YOU are part of the problem! Go put ur head in the sand!

Picket what does that actually mean?

I mean, it's your right to post what you want about the club. Vent all you like. Ditto for others too of course.

But are you seriously suggesting a fan knocking the club on a footy forum will actually help us improve - ie is part of the solution?

The only realistic way fans can be part of any 'solution' that leads to on field improvement is SUPPORTING the club.

Turn up to games, if you can (I was shocked to read someone on here saying they would refuse go to games as some sort of protest- that is literally the opposite of support).

Buy a membership, if you van

Don't buy into, and reinforce, the nonsense the media peddle about the dees (we all can do that).

Hell, even push back against such nonsense. 

That's what we can do to help.

1 hour ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

I couldn't be prouder of the boys. I gave us no chance.

That's the best footy we've played all year bar the last quarter.

Yep.

Heartbreaking result.

But a fantastic performance.

Most on here gave us zero chance.

Lucky to get within 5 goals and all that.

On that logic we smashed the expectations of most posters.

I haven't read this thread yet - I hope those that had such expectations are acknowledging how good our performance was and not taking the loss at yet another opportunity to just pile on.

Any in the 'we are so hopeless we wont get within a bulls roar camp' who still choose to pile on are showing their true colours. And they aren't red and blue.

i was bullish about our chances and was confident of a really good performance. I was not in the least surprised that's what we got.

My expectations were we set ourselves for this game and that we would see a much more dynamic team running over the ground better and being better in the contest.

They met my expectations as that's what we got.

So much better in the spread, so much more gut running (which is why our all team defence was so good for most of the game - and why it dropped off in the last as we tired).

The intensity and contest was great - though the pressure  wasn't as good in the first as it needed to be. We we were lucky they only had a 15 point lead at quarter time.

Viney was immense.

Clarry was terrific, and worked himself into the ground. As did chin and others. 

Koz was simply brilliant.

The second quarter was our best quarter of footy for a long, long time.

We ran out of gas in the last, but not too badly - certainly not as bad as last week. 

(In terms of running out the game, it's worth noting we only had a six day break to their seven).

Not helped by petty rolling his ankle or goody not bringing pup on early in the last, or even late in the third, to inject some fresh legs and run. 

Losing bowey really hurt, particularly given salo was out too.

Woey struggled down back and would have been sub if bowey played. And would have been a much better sub option than pup. More flexible in terms of role, more experienced and stronger. Goody would have brought him on earlier. 

But the biggest he issue was once again our inability to kick clutch goals.

2.8 in the second half was why we lost. Same story 

Poor kicking is our biggest weakness - and really the evidence is mounting up we have issues under pressure (which by the by is exacerbated by poor technique).

The other big factor was we couldn't generate enough intercept marks - though they are less relevant in the transition game we were playing for much of the game. 

On the free against nibbla, he was unlucky because he was tripped. But the free was probably there and I want umpires to pay frees they see regardless of the point in the match.

But what drives me insane is that free was in the context of us not receiving mutiple frees    during the match and late in the game, that were also there.

Where were our holding the bloody ball frees (made worse pinging us in the middle fir tge htb). Or May's mark that wasn't paid. Pay them for God sakes.

And was that 50 to rivers against rayner at the end? Marginal perhaps, but so was nibblas.

We are still well in the hunt this season. 

As goody had said all season, we want to be playing our best footy in August and September.

The second quarter looked like our best footy. We need to see that for longer in games - and I expect we will.

To misquote Paul McCarthy, reports of our death are much exaggerated.

2 hours ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Yeah I thought this was harsh as well, it’s impossible to replace 25-30yo players like for like with 19-22yo - the kids will be fine in most cases but they need time. I get the frustration but there’s not much to be done about it. 

I thought it was going to come to blows in the first 3min of the pod but it settled after that 😂 

I was channelling Scotty 'keep punching' Palmer.

5 hours ago, JTR said:

We've been relatively young and inexperienced all season. People are only just starting to notice.

All the following have been regulars except Tholstrup, Brown and I suppose Turner
Tholstrup (18)
Windsor (19)
Brown (19)
McVee (20)
Bowey (21)
Howes (21)
JVR (21)
Turner (22)
Rivers (22)
Pickett (23 - as of a couple of weeks ago) 

Then we have AMW who is 20, Woewodin (21) & Laurie (22).

Chandler, Petty & Spargo are also only 24.

It's a point I made before the season started ie how young our list is and how many best 22 are 22 and under.

The idea we are suddenly 'playing the kids' because we have conceded the year and are looking toward 2025 is ridiculous.

Yes the kolt ans brown came in. But apart from tracc who came out?

Laurie, who is 22.

3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

If we want Tomlinson to leave at the end of the year then we drop him for Brisbane.

Whilst that may please some here in the short term, next year when we are short of key defenders and Tommo is playing good footy at a premiership contender I don't want to hear any whining that 'we let Tommo go for nothing'

He's done everything we have asked of him and deserves to keep his spot to tackle Hipwood.

May to Daniher, McVee to Cameron Lever floating

hell I'd even play Tommo in the fwd line

I'm in the drop tomo this week camp.

But someone suggested dropping Howes instead, which isn't such a bad idea.

The issue as I see it, is as a defender, tomo needs a one on one match up. He's too slow off the mark for the intercept role in my book.

Is hipwood too quick? If not he could take him, freeing up may and Lever to wax on Daniher - or may to lock Daniher down and lever intercept.

My concern though about the lions forward line is nor the talls, it's the medium forwards - Mccluggage, Bailey, Cameron and McCarthy. 

And for that reason, I think Howes will keep his spot.

On tomo as a forward, I've long thought they should try him up forward. Perhaps in a defensive forward role on opponents intercepting defenders.