binman

12 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Kenty seems more palatable.

Kenty the lurker?

26 minutes ago, Fritta and Turner said:

Has he been called Lurker yet?

 

No.

Well, almost.

I called him The Lurker

4 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Not tactics - just the ‘L’ word - or intensity of training volume and density. 👊🥩💥

And from a tactical perspective freo looked to exacerbate our increased intensity of training volume and density (my new, less triggering phrase) by speading, switching and make us chase tail all game.

8 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

We don't need an elite KPF, 2nd ruck. We need a good player. Newcombe is a good player for example, but he's nowhere near elite. We need to add elite talent to our midfield, not another Dunstan, Harmes, Jordon or Newcombe...

We. Do. Not. Need. Any. More. Depth. Players.

8 hours ago, Jibroni said:

He seems like a nice kick as well, has scored 42.13 from his WAFL games. I hope we dont beat that accuracy out of him :(

 

Or as the footy experts like to erroneously call accuracy - efficiency.

32 minutes ago, old55 said:

Yes there's not a great deal of ready made midfield impact in my list of players but they could come in and enable Salem, Rivers or even McVee to run through there in addition to ANB and Pickett 

Absolutely. 100% agree. 

The fact they haven't felt the need to as of yet demonstrates they don't see our midfield as a big issue atm.

And they might even decide they have enough coverage in the middle - particularly if they think kolt can become a midfield gun

The reality is the game has changed. Teams now only need 3 elite mids. Ten years ago they needed 5 or 6. They now need 5 or 6 elite high half forwards, half backs or wingers who have elite endurance and speed. 

Which is why of course we used a critical top 10 draft pick (who knows when we will get another one?) on Windsor.

Look at the swans.  They have the best performing midfield atm built around three gun mids.

One of their starting mids last year, Luke Parker, has been kicking around in the magoos picking up 30 plus possessions and can't force his way into the side.

Because he is an absolute A grader  Mills will come back in when fit you'd think. But that will create a challenge fir them in terms of the mix of player types as they will he loathe to drop a runner. 

We have three A graders - oliver, tracc and viney.

Understandably given his interrupted preseasons, Oliver is not yet back to his best, though still performing well. In all likelihood he will get back to his best.

Even if one was available, is there any point chasing an A grader to trade in?

I don't think so. I reckon the go is to try and find a potential gun mid in the next draft. 

35 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

At 19 we know big lads take time to develop and hopefully Luka can mould into a handy fwd/ruck option.

That's an interesting point about being a ruck option.

Would make sense, as we need cover for JVR.

And Casey is desperate for a ruck, so perhaps rather than cutting g Jefferson's lunch the lurker can develop his ruck craft by being rhe number one ruck, who rests forward, for the rest of the year at Casey.

28 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

At 19 we know big lads take time to develop and hopefully Luka can mould into a handy fwd/ruck option.

That's an interesting point about being a ruck option.

Would make sense, as we need cover for JVR.

And Casey is desperate for a ruck, so perhaps rather than cutting g Jefferson's lunch the lurker can develop his ruck craft by being rhe number one ruck, who rests forward, for the rest of the year at Casey.

2 hours ago, old55 said:

Maybe as @DeeSpencerobserves there was no-one available who could come straight into the 22 and make more impact in the 2nd half of the H&A and finals than Laurie, Spargo, Woewodin, Howes, Billings, Tholstrup and K.Brown.  Perhaps Luke Dunstan or Moose are interested in resurrection?

Indeed.

Of course we need to strengthen our midfield. We lost a starting mid, a top 3 draft pick no less, after (understandably) trading a possible staring mid in jordon and depth in harmes.

As you suggest we have some options, though of that list I think only laurie, the kolt and woey are any chance of being regular starting mids.

(by the by, the fact that none have been rushed into the side, particularly laurie who is AFL ready and played a full season as a mid at Casey, show the level of concern currently about our midfield. Compare and contrast to the decision to bring a defender, Turner  in as a forward).

Kolt looks ready made as an inside mid and might be pushing for a spot next year.

I wouldn't have previously thought woey was a mid option - he hasn’t played as one at Casey or in the ones - but I've been impressed by his contest work and physically he is becoming a bit of a bull, so he might be a chance of becoming a decent mid.

So we have got options going forward.

But with our draft picks it is very unlikely we will draft a kid good enough to slot straight in to our midfield next season.

Which leaves trading in a mid.

I have no idea who might be available. But there is zero point trading in a mid who is not an automatic starter, ie we don't need another depth player.

In a similar vein to your comment old about there not being an AFL ready mid kicking around in the WAFL, VFL or country leagues, it's not as if there's a surfeit of gun mids playing AFL who are both good enough to slot into a top 4 team's midfield and available (not to mention affordable).

The trade whispers about who we might be targeting will give us some insight into how big an issue the club thinks our midfield is.

9 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The midfield that’s needed Nibbler and Kossie to go on ball to provide some run and speed, has had to move Langdon to half forward to have run there and is suddenly relying on Hunter again doesn’t need reinforcements?

Apparently not according to the professionals paid to select players in the mid season draft to address gaps.

Just now, layzie said:

By all means, let's change a rule mid-season. 

It's the annual AFL mid season confected controversy.

Gotta get that sweet content.

No surprise we targeted a key forward not a mid.

Coz 99 problems and our mids ain't one.

11 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

One of the advantages of being a Sunday game - the umpires should have ‘relaxed’ the overcorrection by then 

It says a lot that this is more a statement of fact than supposition.

3 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Hey binman.  In your previous post you mentioned that you heard JVR is the number 1 in the afl for being targeted inside 50.  The actual stat is he is #1 at marking the ball when targeted (he doesn’t get targeted a huge amount).  That is a hugely impressive stat for a 21 year old key forward.

Thank @Watson11.

Straight into my mental stats file (and the post above!).

You're right, that is a hugely impressive stat for a kid who turned 21 only last month.

I have to say, he looked much fresher this week after a week out.. More dynamic.

Personally I'd love it of he didn't have to be the back up ruck. It's a massive ask for a kid to carry that sort of work load. 

But it really shows how important he is to our side as there's really no other option atm as verell is not a forward and I'm not sure Fullarton had a spot in the team.

And even if they were good options, petty, JVR and frtter are all locks, sof one of them was selected they  would need to replace a medium (McAdam or melk) or small (koz, Chandler or nibbla).

I can't see us going with 3 genuine  tall forwards, at least not for the foreseeable future.

19 minutes ago, loges said:

Like how it's going to be humid and slippery in Alice Springs on the weekend 

In the Alice today the forecast is 28 degrees and partly cloudy.

Big drop of rain (up to 30mm) coming tommorow.

So if it was ever going to he humid it would be today.

The forecast is for only 35% humidity.

By way of contrast, today's  forecast for Melbourne is Max 21 degrees, and like in the Alice, rain is forecast for tommorow, albeit a lot less (up to 8mm).

The forecast is for 46% humidity here.

Our game on Sunday starts at 1pm. Perfect start time as it gets cold in the Alice once the sun starts going down.

And I assumeit  gets very dewy on sunny days like it will be on Sunday. Sunset is at 5:56 pm, so a good two and a bit hours after the game finishes.

Absolutely perfect conditions for footy:

10 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Freo play on Optus which is notoriously hard deck, so the surface is not similar 

I'm amazed how hard the ground at optus is given how new the ground is.

It also often looks very patchwork

Cant be great for dockers and eagles players.

IIRC, when the G first went to grass on a concrete base ir was also too hard for a period of time.

Docklands was also rock hard I  it's first few seasons- and in addition often had large areas of shifting turf.

I would have thought the technology and practice would have improved by the time optus was built.

12 hours ago, JJJ said:

JVR’s trajectory is going well. I think we differ an where he will finish up. More on that later.

On your 1st point, JVR does not consistently impact the game as a key forward should YET. His trajectory points to that in the future but he is still young, developing and learning his craft. I believe he will get there. One can lack impact but still be on a positive trajectory. I am not sure how you don’t understand that concept.

I don’t believe I have ever questioned his impact for a player of his age and experience. That’s not a metric I’m interested in as we are in the Premiership window. If he is playing, he has to fulfil the role he is given. He has a lot to work on but he is already important to us structurally.

There is no contradiction in pointing out his poor hands and average body work to his trajectory as a key forward. As you clearly state, he has other elite traits. Athleticism, work rate, leading patterns, defensive work, goal kicking, attack on the ball and aerobic capacity point to an end product that could be pretty bloody good. He also has an appetite to win the footy and the requisite strut but that shouldn’t be mistaken for his lack of craft when one-on-one.

Regarding the Amiss comp. It’s a good one as they are contemporaries in similar situations. Amiss has stalled a little this year but I believe he is potentially an AA in the future. JVR similarly has flattened out a little in 2024 but should get back on track.

I have watched a lot of footy in various capacities and from the eye test, Amiss seems to have a higher ceiling with a few more strings to his bow. I see JVR peaking as an A-Grader and key pillar for our future but would be surprised, pleasantly so, if he won an AA blazer.

But development is neither a given nor is it linear so who knows?!

Well reasoned, and I appreciate the measured response.

But the data for the metrics you chose don't support your argument and i think your premise is founded on flawed logic.

For example, saying you think JVR does not consistently impact the game as a key forward should YET is setting a strange benchmark ie what he will become as opposed to what can reasonably be expected t9 be at his current age and stage of development.

And besides, I disagree that he doesn't impact the game consistently enough right now.

He is our best key forward NOW. Certainly our most consistent one.

And as I have noted I disagree completely his body work is poor. It just isn't. 

And whilst I think his hands could be stickier, i don't agree his hands are 'poor'. Far from it.

I mean, his contested mark numbers indicate he has really good hands.

50th in the AFL this season for ALL forwards for contested marks puts him ahead of a lot of good footballers. That's not possible without having good hands.

And again, unlike almost every other key forward, JVR is also a second ruck. If he had the luxury of staying inside 50 the whole game and not gassing himself rucking he'd clunk more marks.

That ruck role has to be factored into the assessment of his forward craft and his value to the team.

Just one aspect is taking 20 ruck contests a game allows maxy to be the dominant player he is.

And the fact that JVR holds his own when rucking means we don't get opened up when maxy is on the bench. 

And his around the ground rucking also demonstrates how well he uses his body.

What other young key forward does any rucking?

Of the more senior pure key forwards, I can only think of Daniher who takes as many ruck contests as JVR.

I too have watched a lot football. And seen a lot of young key forwards come and go.

JVR is only in his third season, and just his second playing seniors. He has just turned 21.

The level he played at last year, when still 20, and is playing at this year, is remarkable, as is how important he is for us.

Cadman, a number one draft pick is a year behind roey. He is in his second season, and regualarly in the ones, so comparable to where JVR was last season. He looks good, but is nowhere near as impactful or as important to his teams' fortunes as JVR was last season.

In my 45 plus years of watching the dees, the only two key forwards compare to JVR at the same age in terms of impact (not potential impact, actual impact) are the ox and Jessie Hogan.

22 hours ago, JJJ said:

Wow.

I don’t think JUH is impactful enough yet either. Also, I wouldn’t compare them statistically like the above, as comparisons like that are mostly useless unless you’re comparing in a vacuum.

Key forwards are measured offensively on; number of targets inside 50, contests won/lost & score involvements/assists.

Anyway, if you’ve read my other posts you will also realise that I acknowledge that he is young and going well. Just pointing out that as a young key forward he hasn’t taken the step where he consistently hits the scoreboard or asserts himself when things aren’t in our favour. It will come.

Lastly, I have never once questioned his trajectory other than to say that his hands aren’t elite for a key forward nor his body on body work. The latter can be developed, the former not so much.

How do you square 'not impactful enough' with not questioning his trajectory?

If you think is trajectory is OK, then by definition isn't he sufficiently impactful for his age and stage of development?

And isn't there a contradiction in saying his trajectory as a key forward is fine but his hands aren’t elite for a key forward nor his body on body work?

I'd agree he could improve his marking, but completely disagree about his one on one ability.

For a 21 year old playing in the ruck and as a key forward, almost always on bigger and older opponents, he is elite one on one.

In fact I'd say that's his greatest strength - it's the thing that immediately stood out the first time I saw him play live at Casey.

Agree your key metrics for key forwards - number of targets inside 50, contests won/lost & score involvements/assists - are good indicators for key forwards.

The only key forward player in the AFL 21 or under who is anywhere near as good as JVR is Amiss. 

Amiss has JVR  covered for average assists per game this season (0.60 to 0.40 - by way of contrast Hawkins and Dixon average 0.44 and the Coleman medallist, Curnow 0.55).

JVR has Amiss covered for score involvements this season (4.30 to 4.20 - both impressive actually - by way of contrast Larkey averages 4.55 score involvements).

JVR has Amiss well and truly covered for average contested marks this season (0.6 to 0.5).

Ranked equal 50th with Jeremy cameron, JVR  is ahead of Daniher and Larkey for average contested marks per game this season.

Impressive given how taxing the donkey work as a back up ruck is, particularly for a kid.

(Note: the data above is for forwards who have played a minimum 5 games this season).

And JVR is number one in the AFL for marking the ball when targeted.

That is a hugely impressive stat for a key forward who only turned 21 last month.

On top of all that he is miles ahead of most key forwards, young and old, for accuracy, kicking efficiency, tackles and one percenters.

None of that adds up to 'not impactful enough'.

It adds up to a kid who at 21 is incredibly impactful for his age (comparable to some of the greats), the best young forward in the AFL and a future rolled gold, AA star.

It is crazy how underrated he is, even by some dees fans.

13 hours ago, JJJ said:

It probably tells us that JVR is not impactful enough to swim against the tide. As in his goal tally is a result of a dominant midfield, not him dominating an opponent.

You're kidding right.

That's what you take from that data - JVR is not impactful enough?

Kids has just turned 21 and in my opinion is the best forward 21 and under in the game. And in the next 3-4 years will develop into the best key forward full stop. 

People rightly rate Ugle Hagan highly. So do i. This is how their season's compare thus far.

JUH shades JVR in most stats, most notably contested marks, but not all.

JVR has JUH well and truly covered for disposal efficiency and has half the number of clangers. And unlike JUH, JVR does not have the luxury of swanning around the forward line the whole game, having to take 20 odd ruck contests game as our second ruck. No mean feat for a 21 year old. Probably explains why he is worth more for super coach. 

And of course a key point is JUH is a year older than JVR and has another year of AFL level development. 

5 minutes ago, illbarto said:

Didn't we score 100?

Two rushed (they don't count them for some reason)

2 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

No change 🥱

We did win by six goals after all.

18 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

This makes sense. It surprised me yesterday though given we played a higher line, so ground ball gets against had the potential to cut us open, but didn't.

Their kicking was woeful in the main.

And it seemed as if we dared them to take on the corridor and the saints refused the invite.

That said, 54 of their 66 points were from turnover. That's nuts.

That's only 4 points less than we scored from turnover. And is nearly 11 points more than we concede per match on average.

I can't imagine that number pleased goody. 

45 minutes ago, binman said:

A couple of factors come to mind.

A key one is having 2 of our 3 best kicks - salem and bowey - out of the side for a big chunks of time.

That iss compounded by both players being half back flankers, the engine room for creating high quality scoring opportunities on turnover and transition.

Given the key role elite distributors play in the turnover game, its no surprise we look much better on transition with those two in the side.

I think another factor is that we have a number of players who ate not great kicks.

And perhaps the biggest factor is we are trying to implement a new system, which will always be a challenge, particularly for a team that is so systems based, and one that has a super defined system drilled into them for 3 plus years.

The swans are the deserved benchmark for the turnover game

But I think it's worth noting that they have been using that method for the last 2 seasons and are the most settled team in the AFL in terms of forced changes.

Consider the impact if they lost 2 of their 3 best kicks that are key to their transition game - say blakely and gulden.

On 21/05/2024 at 09:35, layzie said:

What do you put this down to Binman? Not enough skill when we turn it over? Not generating enough turnovers in the first place or in areas where we want them?

A couple of factors come to mind.

A key one is having 2 of our 3 best kicks - salem and bowey - out of the side for a big chunks of time.

That iss compounded by both players being half back flankers, the engine room for creating high quality scoring opportunities on turnover and transition.

Given the key role elite distributors play in the turnover game, its no surprise we look much better on transition with those two in the side.

I think another factor is that we have a number of players who ate not great kicks.

And perhaps the biggest factor is we are trying to implement a new system, which will always be a challenge, particularly for a team that is so systems based, and one that has a super defined system drilled into them for 3 plus years.

3 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Look at that -21 for ground balls stat. Crazy how that stat has become so inconsequential to how we play.

There's an interesting potential correlation with the loose ball gets as per wheelos terrific addition to his stats.

Melbourne's Forward 50

Loose Ball Gets: -14

Post clearance

Loose ball gets: -19 

Pre clearance

Loose Ball Gets: -3

I suspect one of the causal factors driving the post clearance, inside our forward 50 and the ground ball numbers, is the Lyon defensive flood. 

They often seemed to have at least a couple of extra players defending our forward line.