binman

Farris White doing ok

Brilliant forward pressure from pup sets up a Schache shot on goal

Who took that strong pack mark?

(And then proceeded to turn it over)

It's weird watching a game without replays

1 minute ago, KC from Casey said:

Nice goal to McAdam.

A beauty.

13 minutes ago, Sigil said:

Is the sound cooked on the stream for anyone else?

Sort of. Commentator very loud

1 hour ago, dpositive said:

Agree with all of this.

 Would just add the May playing injured when Tomlinson could relieve him does display one aspect of Goodwin that I have always been critical of. He does seem to stick with his regular structure. I agree that there's nothing wrong with that coz it is a successful model. Its a team game and a squad game. with high attrition rates we need to have replacements for every player trained in the same structures and patterns. every one should be able to and I would say should be replaced by a similar player just to give them a rest while maintaining the muscle memory of the structure and strategies within the players and the collective.

It is also necessary to have a plan B and C also rigorously applied to provide variation to confound oppositions that might structure against a fixed pattern.

When you say goody sticks with his structure, do you mean in terms of his selection policy?

One of the criticisms he's faced is playing favourites with selection. And sticking with players who are out of form.

From my perspective, assessing selection decisions is a bit like assessing the high performance program - there are so many variables and unknowns it's hard to make a balanced assessment.

That said, there have been plenty of head scratchers over the journey. 

For example I was amazed laurie was selected ahead of spargo late last year. And selecting tmac was also baffling given he was clearly not fit and was still impacted by his foot issue.

But like I said, there are unknowns- was Grundy invested, was spargo perhaps not meeting internal benchmarks, etc etc.

One thing I do know about goody's selection policy is playing an assigned role is key to being selected week in week out.

If a player in poor form stats wise keeps getting selected, fans can be pretty confident they are playing their assigned role and meeting the related KPIs (which could include indicators fans are unaware of, such as distance run, maintaing structure, following team rules, halving contests stc).

All of which is a function of goody's coaching philosophy of being system focused.

His critics often knock him for his game day coaching, the no blan b or c stuff. Go up to the box some say. 

Personally, I think those critisisms are unfair, and yet another Goodwin myth.

I mean just this season he gave Mitchell and Scott, two coaches who are lauded for their game day coaching and tactical smarts, a tactical bath. 

But be that as it may, goody, like hardwick, longmuire, mcrae and longmire is a systems coach.

Which is why he coaches from the bench (I know longmuire and Longmure dont)

He does much of tactical work ahead of the game and relies on his players to follow and execute his pre game plans. He has his senior assistant in the box to give him in game tactical advice. 

Which doesn't mean he is inert.

When watching our games on tv watch how often when showing a shot of goody how often he is getting info from the stats analyst who sits on the bench. It's constant. 

The idea that goody is stubborn, inflexible or predictable doesn't hold up to scrutiny. 

To be honest, if anything I think he can be too experimental.

Just look at this year.  

He selected tmac and bbb at the start of the on the back of interrupted preseasons, and in tmacs case two weeks after surgery.

BBB was probably a bust, but we did win games with him in the team. And tmac hasn't missed a game - or a beat.

On tmac, despite us being desperate for key forwards, they instead play him as a defender (perhaps recognising how important having elite kicks down back is) - and almost a hb flanker at that. It's been a genius move as tmac has been terrific. 

After his out of the box selection of mvvee down back in 2023 and bowey in 2021 (few would argue both calls were winners) he selected another in Howes. Out of the side now, he was terrific in the first third of the season and will come back in I reckon.

Amd this season he has selected a young defender, Turner, as a forward.

Put Windsor straight into the ones from the get go.

Blooded the kolt, woey, amw and pup.

He has experimented with our centre square rotations (River, anb, salo and koz all getting a run) and used clarry in a defensive mid role.

After largely eschewing using taggers, he tagged Stewart in our win over the cats, had nibbler shut down daicos and neale and used fritter to do the same to Andrews.

He's played our best winger, Langdon, at half forward flank and not used sparrow as a mid until the last 2 weeks.

And he's brought back players off long injury breaks straight back into the side - melk being the latest example

All of that whilst experimenting with a game plan that has won us the flag and mutiple top 4 finishes.

Predictable?

Hardly.

Far from being predicatable, you could mount a stronger case for goody being too UNPREDICTABLE.

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I still feel we’re a bit short without another tall up forward. 

Who goes out if Petty is fit for next week? Does Melksham become the sub and Kolt goes out? Goodwin said last week he wants all 3 talls playing together to foster some cohesion and connection.

One thing to remember is Melksham came into the side last year when Fritsch went out injured. They only played one game together (Sydney) then Melksham did his ACL. It’ll be interesting to see how we go with two midsize forwards.

Both play tall at least. 

22 hours ago, Hellfire Dub said:

Be fair Binman, I put my money where my mouth is.  I pay for Redlegs and go to pretty much every home and Melbourne based game every year and bring my older two with me when I can.  They're also junior members.  

I'm delighted that Goody led us to the 2021 flag, but I'm genuinely frustrated and upset by the years since and by this season most of all.  You love the Dees too so you'll want us to win everything we can and be our best.  You can't be happy with what's happening lately and there are contributing causes?  Coaching and forward line coaching and latterly midfield issues are a big part of our struggles.  

I agree with VDL in that I think numerous other coaches have figured out ways to beat our setup.  This has led to lower ranked teams targeting us as a scalp they can take when we should be good enough to win.  

A predictable thing that could change for the better might be Goody's viewpoint on the game.  I think him being at the bench is a negative thing and he'd have a better view of the game from up high (like me!).  Is this something that's lacking since Yze left? 

It's not in Goody's nature to have knee jerk reactions, but the higher seats give you a clear view of what's happening.  For example when teams are setting up to lose the bounce; or when they're leaving someone outside to benefit from the contest; or when they're going chipping around our zone or whatever other tactic the oppo coach is employing.  An earlier reaction and changes could have won some of those games. 

I think him being at the bench is a desire to have an emotional and verbal connection with the players.  To me it seems like a general commanding from a bunker with incomplete information and a poor overview of the battlefield. I don't think he needs to be their friend during the game, but he needs to be a cold analytic leader.  

As you keep saying yourself we're not far off.  On the whole the defence and contest serves us well.  We do well when we don't blaze away with high aimless panicked kicks from midfield.  We do well when we don't all flood the 50 at either end.  We do well when it's not boring predictable slow ball down the line.  By contrast I find it joyful when players take a moment to look inside for a low delivery on an angle or to a lead.  

Doing the same things over and over and losing is the frustration.  Especially when everyone in the stands can see it unfolding but nothing changes.  This is particularly the case with inductive ineffective forward patterns, delivery and pressure.  

A few victories would make all the difference on the ladder and for many of those games it just needed a couple more timely goals.  

Fair points HD.

I apologise for my snideness and any implication you don't turn up for games and support the club.

At the risk of negating that apology, a frustration that informed the sentiment in that post is what I perceive, to be blunt, as a lack of perspective by many of goody's many critics on here.

By that I mean, by any reasonable measure, goody's tenure as senior coach has been incredibly successful.

It just has.

Dees fans know better than most how hard it is to be successful in AFL footy - as a coach and for a team.

But leaving aside our incredibly long, sustained period of being wildly unsuccessfully, goody's numbers stack up against the best coaches in AFL/VFL history.

How many coaches in the 166 year history of the game that have coached more than a 150 games have a win loss % above 50% and have won a flag?

I'd be guessing, but it can't be much more than 20 or 30 in 166 years. That's rarefied air.

We were still rubbish when goody took over. In his first season we missed out on finals by 0.5 percent.

In 2018, playing an exciting,  unpredictable back half transition game with his flying v strategy (that was a major factor in the introduction of the 666 rule) we had an incredible run in the back half of the season, had probably the two greatest wins I've seen live in the finals and made it to a preliminary final, getting beaten by the flag winner. 

He took the opportunity mass injury afforded in 2019 to retool his method, introducing the contest and all team defence model.

We stalled in 2020, but it was the covid year and we were unlucky that the shorter quarters negated our fitness advantage.

We won the flag in 2021, playing a finals series that some described as the greatest ever.

Our grand final win was ridiculously good. Exhilarating football.

Bang. Bang. Bang.

Starting with our incredible win over the cats in round 23 to secure top spot, that was the greatest 6 weeks of my football supporting life.

We finished top 4 in 2022. Sure we went out in straight sets, but come finals we were completely banged up and were never in the hunt. 

In 2023 we again finished top 4, a remarkable performance given our injuries up forward, but unfortunately we also again went out in straight sets.

How you see the loss to the pies depends a bit on your perspective.

We came our a bit flat - cross.

But soon after we lost gus and the first quarter was a write off - mitigating factor (as was nor having him foe basically an entire game) so a tick.

We played brilliantly for the rest of the game, and really should have won. Tick.

Again, remarkable given no Gus and really only playing 3 quarters.

Why did we lose?

Because we didn't take our chances. 

That's 100% on the players, not goody. His method and game day coaching stood up.

We went into the blues game down our last surviving specialist KPF in JVR, and still reeling from Gus.

Be that as it may, forever and a day, fans and the club will rue that loss. I think we win and we are a huge flag chance.

We were by far the better team that day. We should have won. 

Why did we lose?

Because we didn't take our chances. 

And, I also think we didn't handle the pressure - so many unforced errors. Many of which from our senior players, for example maxy x 3.

And we handled the last 5 minutes woefully.

Again, that's on the players, not goody.

Sure, the non use of Schache as a sub, not selecting Grundy and Laurie's selection could all be questioned. But wouldn't have been if the players had sealed the deal like they should have.

Goody's method and game day  coaching stood up. Again. The players didn't.

2024?

We already had a young list, but started the season down two of our starting 22, two fit, seasoned players in Smith and Gus. We could not replace either, so effectively the list is 42.

Other senior players in Petty, bb, tmac, hunter, McAdam and clarry all have very interrupted preseasons.

And another best 22 senior player in melk is out till well past the half way point of the season.

The first third of the season we are given an insane schedule with lots of travel, two byes and two 5 day breaks.

We lost more senior games when bb is a bust fitness wise, Hunter ditto, may gets his ribs broken, salo out for 5 weeks, clarry had hand surgery and Lever out for 5 weeks. 

We lose our best, most dynamic player for the rest of the season after another sickening contact  injury.

We are regularly forced to select very young inexperienced teams, teams more akin to teams who are a  rebuilding phase.

All the while trying to implement a new method. Which is ironic given the inane OP accusing goody of being too predictable.

We had the off season from hell,  mutiple senior players injured, down two of our starting 22 and down 2 on our list.

And with a two thirds of the season gone we are only 2 points out of the top 8 and still in the hunt.

Objectively that is bloody impressive.

As is goody's overall coachimg record.

Facts are facts. 

18 hours ago, binman said:

He's been miles off AFL ready to relatively recently, particularly in terms of fitness and second efforts.

And he's still a mile off.

The other thing I'd add, is the calls for Jeffo to be selected are in stark contrast to what seemed to be the consensus on this thread only a couple of months ago thst he wasn't going to make it at AFL level.

And I'd also note that selecting melk,  a senior, seasoned AFL player, first up after nearly 12 months out, rather than Jefferson  cuts against the idea that goody had given up on this years and planning for 2025 (eg by 'playing the kids').

4 minutes ago, layzie said:

Say hello to Jake Melksham..

1 hour ago, Demonstone said:

That's true for Jordon, but Sparrow debuted in his first year at the club.

As for Jeffo, he hasn't been selected yet as he clearly hasn't been ready for AFL level.

He's been miles off AFL ready to relatively recently, particularly in terms of fitness and second efforts.

And he's still a mile off.

2 hours ago, OhMyDees said:

Not going on Sunday….

Not because I’m an armchair critic waiting for the next 9 games to be a Optus but I’m still recovering from foot surgery. 

God I hope we get some percentage. I feel like if we’re going to make the 8 we’ll need it in a big way.

Please upload your medical certificate.

8 hours ago, Hellfire Dub said:

Hi VDL,

I'd like us to be more predictable in some aspects.  

When your friends ask you questions like "ooh are you a bit worried about the Eagles this week?" or "any nerves about North today" that I could confidently reply "Nah we'll whip those bottom placed sides and boost our percentage".  

Same thing with a WhatsApp message that came in at 3/4 time last week:  "season on the line, back up at 5th... For Now!" I had to ignore it and not reply because I knew our coach and his staff will find a new way to break our spirit.  

In reality we're too nice and too boring.  We didn't stick up for Gussy and we don't call out [censored] umpiring or AFL shafting.  Our coach trots out meaningless cliches and platitudes so often that I think he's brainwashed himself.  Yet he's unpredictable in doing stuff that goes completely against wisdom like persisting with players out of form or position.  I predict we'll still be here having the same arguments next year and the root cause will still be on his journey of learnings.

My load of old cobblers gauge just blew up.

What's predictable is the coach of a side who broke a 57 year drought and has a win loss record better that any other dees coach since norm smith getting bagged by dees 'supporters'.

Equally predictable is the dees 'supporters' who complain about how we are treated by the AFL, umpires, our fixture and how loud and engaged our fans are etc etc not bothering to turn up on Sunday and supporting the team and club.

Much better to pot us from the cheapest seat - the couch at home.

Not referring to you HD, but if the couch fits.....

By the by, this is the first time we play the Eagles at the MCG since 2014, when they flogged us by 90 odd points.

Yet, I think I'm right in saying we have played them in Perth every year since then. A big factor is crowd size.

So I hope any fan who can get to the G on Sunday, but chooses not, doesn't whinge when we only play the Eagles once next season and that game is at Optus oval.

On 02/07/2024 at 18:40, rjay said:

6 in a GF, in top line of goal kickers in AFL over the last number of years.

Hardly overrated.

Having a quite patch, yes.

Overrated, no.

Probably has been underrated for what he has achieved.

 

Am i right in saying fritter was our leading goal kicker for the last four seasons? 

I wonder how dees many players could match that achievement in our 166 history?

In my time of following us maybe Neita, Mark Jackson, Robbie (but only because we were so bad), Jakovich and then I'm drawing blanks. And of that lot I'd only be confident of Neita.

1 hour ago, Van Demons Land said:

Having closely studied MFC over the past couple of years I'm convinced that they have become the most predictable team in the AFL. By this I mean that the majority of other teams have Melbourne worked out and have implemented successful opposing strategies and tactics. An example of predictable patterns are as follows: 1. Jake Lever deciding to take on his opponent on foot, only to get caught holding the ball. 2. Getting the ball inside the opposition 50 regularly, only to fail at achieving a goal. 3. Defence, defence, defence 4. The Harrison Petty forward experiment. 5. Inconsistent hot and cold form of individual players (Chandler, Turner, Petty) 5. Overrated players (Fritsch). The writing on the wall was no more clearly demonstrated than that timid loss to West Coast Eagles in Perth. Contrast that against a hungry up and coming Hawthorn who not only went to Perth to take on WCE but came away with a performance of a team going somewhere, which MFC sadly isn't. Goodwin and his backroom staff are average at best

Really?

Tell me more.

1 minute ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

Would hurt the suns more than us. Would be nervous if I was a Norf supporter, don’t the NT want their own AFL team. This could be the first step In a relocation. If that means we don’t have to play a home game at Alice Springs instead of the MCG I won’t shed a tear. 

It makes sense.

The NT is most def north of Melbourne.

From this article (my bolded bit)

First to worst: Fitness no factor, so what's causing Dees' final-term fades? 

 https://www.afl.com.au/news/1162860

'It's led to some queries around Melbourne's fitness and the side's ability to run out games, but that's a theory that's quickly dispelled by the numbers.

On Friday night, the Telstra Tracker shows the Demons ran a total distance of 297km. It was the most covered by any side across the entire round, and 9km more than the Lions during the game.

The Telstra Tracker also shows Melbourne ran 43km at high speed, 6km more than Brisbane. It completed 272 total sprints, 50 more than Brisbane, and it ran 21 repeat sprints, four more than Brisbane.

The Demons' average speed in defence – a number closely tracked by clubs as it displays the side's work rate without the ball – was 8.3km p/h.

It was significantly higher than the Lions at 7.4km p/h and the fifth best of any side across the round'

8 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

The Eagles kindly played their GF against us (we don't help by being soft as butter the whole day), and have been smashed by everyone since. 

We broke the Eagles!

5 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Are you also saying here, Binners, that we will come out the other side of it this season and that there is a training block being undertaken?

Yes. 

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The fact that we've been outscored a combined 54-5 in our last 2 final quarters (V North and Lions) played would probably indicate that our fitness isn't "state of the art" at the moment.

And whilst our supporters are citing that we have a lot of young players in the team as an excuse, why is it that Hawthorn, who the media keep telling us are a young/rebuilding team, are running games out beautifully - whether it be putting bottom teams to the sword in the second half, or holding on in the last quarter against contending sides.

 

Different programs, differenent stage of development and different goals is the short answer.

But looking at 2 games in isolation gives a very skewed assessment.

The hawks couldn't go with us when we played them.

And we almost ran a 40 point lead down against the blues.

Not sure where the hawks ranked, but we were number 1 in the afl for scores in the last quarter after 10 rounds.

Doesn't sound like a team struggling for fitness to me. 

22 minutes ago, BW511 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that the 2023 gameplan would have different requirements, from a fitness and conditioning perspective, when compared to the early part of this year.

Whilst it can be trained over a summer, Selwyn is working to different parameters now so it would need a longer period of time to properly adjust for it.

I’m neither here nor there on Selwyn, just offering a perspective 

 

Spot on.

And the other factor is the age of the current best 22.

Coming into the season the high performance program and planning would have been informed by an assumption that we Gus and Smith both available, and that we would get games from senior, seasoned players like Billings, Hunter, mcadam and to a lesser extent Ben Brown.

That largely hasn't happened, forcing us to play way more kids than they would have planned to - a situation exacerbated by Lever and sako missing games and now tracc out for the season.

1 hour ago, Hawk the Demon said:

Brisbane were also off a 6 day break and travel from Adelaide.

That's true, though I was only referencing the reason we might have tired, not making a comparison to the lions (who also flagged, as evidenced by some of their funky skill errors)

But if i were i making a comparison id note they had their bye in round 12 , almost a full month ago so they are out the other side of bye related fatigue (ie from increased loads).

And perhaps more critically, fielded a much more seasoned team in terms of age, experience and number of preseasons.

16 hours ago, chookrat said:

I thought we matched Brisbane from a workrate perspective across all 4 quarters and fitness wasn't the difference. Both sides looked pretty gassed in what was a relentless 4th quarter and while the held momentum we had our chances and didn't convert. Similarly they missed in what was a brutal finals like game.

Re impact during the loading phase it won't so much affect the ability to run out games as overall the players are stronger aerobically but players lose some explosiveness due to the cumulative muscle fatigue caused by the increased training load. At the end of the loading phase the players would have around a week of tapering, or reduced training load, which is short enough to keep the aerobic fitness gains they have made while freshening up and regaining their explosiveness.  This is the same approach taken by endurance athletes where they load up 2 - 3 months before an event and finish with a 7 - 10 day taper for the event.

Looking at how we played vs Brisbane our pressure was relentless and we would stick tackles which in previous weeks we would look slow or lack the explosiveness to bring the player to ground.

My take is that we are absolutely in the hunt this year but don't have much wriggle room to lose games like we did vs Brisbane. While it's only 1 week I'm optimistic that the Melbourne contested  pressure brand of footy is returning.

Great post.

It points to two interconnected issues with cornes take, well three actually.

One, fitness is probably the wrong word in the context of load management and the high performance program.

At least in the context cornes is discussing our fade outs in the last six weeks.

I'm not sure what the right term is. I mean they are all fit of course, it's more about fatigue levels. Or conversely, freshness.

I'm going with dynamic, or optimal shape/readiness - unless someone has a better term.

Two, cornes notes we have been the worst last quarter team in terms of scoring in the last six weeks.

Suggests that is evidence we are not fit enough.

Questions why we might not be, suggesting motivation and how we are rehabbing might be factors.

But, here's the rub.

The whole data set is we were also the best last quarter team for the first 10 weeks.

So, by corne's logic, that means we were a very fit team in that period, perhaps the fittest.

So, there is a logical inconsistency. 

I mean, what's he saying?

We were fit, meaning we were motivated and worked super hard etc in the preseason, but six weeks later we're not?  

That our fitness could completey drop off a cliff in just six weeks?

I mean, it doesn't make sense - in of itself.

And the third issue is cornes' diagnosis of why he thinks we are not fit - which basically boils down blaming the players (though he does mention the youth of the team).

Just asking questions. 

It's great they are discussing fitness as a factor, but it's a joke they don't discuss the high performance aspect.

I mean cornes played AFL, and as I understand it is a high level distance runner. He knows what is going on. But it is still seemingly taboo to discuss load management. 

In this example, at least suggest it as a possible factor - particularly given there is four years of evidence of a clear pattern of an almost identical six week drop off in form and last quarter scores (after having dominated that same stat for the first 10 rounds or so) around the pre bye and bye period (by the by, it's no coincidence the crows had a a spike - we're more dynamic- this week).

If it's not even discussed, then what are you left with?

The players are soft and not working hard enough. Or the high performance program is nor working. Or both. 

It's stupid. And doesn't help people try and understand what's going on.

3 hours ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Ask not "are we fit enough", but are we pretty enough?

Thanks kasey