binman

20 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

If you think this deal is big, just imagine what Harley Reid is going to get, having shown literally nothing except what a petulant unprofessional child he is.

Geelong is already mowing the lawns on his 9 acre farm, and Cotton On has a headband range in the works.

I've heard that Cotton On is working on a new XXL range of Harley Reid undies and Ts.

3 hours ago, Ghostwriter said:

Your little boy will be fine, as will the many, many little kids with #36 on their jumpers ♥️💙

Hopefully i'll be fine too - koz is an exception to my rule of not getting too upset about a gun dees player leaving.

I don't' have a number on my jumper (was going to get 10, but didn't get around to it - where do you get a number added these days?) but if Koz resigns i'm gonna but the Indigenous jumper his dad designed (which is my second fav) and proudly put 36 on it.

11 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

At this stage the game for various reasons full time umpiring for all umpires is not a viable option IMO.

I still like to see the master umpire model which entails a full time professional umpire who oversees the other part time umpires. The master umpire directs and advises his/her underlings on application and interpreting of laws before and during games, watches from a distance but will not be burdened to make routine decisions in a game unless a bad umpiring clanger occurs and then he/she can intervene. The master umpire can spend the rest of the week being part of the senior off field umpiring panel, review games, study better ways to interpret decisions and scrutinise developing playing trends, liaise with other masters and help in training junior umpires. They could even become the AFL tribunal to adjudicate reported offences. They would be much better than the current shady lot.

I like

42 minutes ago, sue said:

Yes, he's my favourite goal umpire. But goal umps don't rouse the indignation of supporters, less so with video reviews where the indignation is usually directed at the process and the AFL using cameras where the ball can travel a post width between frames.

While all umpires probably supported a team when young, their background is much more obscure than a player's. How would you feel with Maynard being an umpire (probably he would get the MRO job instead).

I don't object to the idea you have put forward - just worry about how to dampen the 'he used to play for x, no wonder he's biased' issue. We supporters do enough frothing at the mouth now. Improved umpires like you suggest would hopefully make the umpiring better. Perhaps to the point that the frothing would become more irrational and outweigh the downside of perceived bias.

Would be easy enough to mitigate - just don't allow ex players to umpire their own team.

1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

binman, i would add to your good points, to say that in a professional umpiring era a good source for umpires would be retired players. many afl players when they retire have no new real career to pursue. the afl could fast track them through a training acadmy then start them off umpiring in the vfl until they are ready for afl. i'm sure there would be plenty of players grateful for this opportunity. they could even start some umpiring academy work in the final years before their retirement from playing. many players are already doing this sort of studying/work-experience in other fields in preparation for after-footy life.

A brilliant idea - ex players would have the required fitness and hopefully also the 'feel' for the game.

It would create a career pathway for players, of who i think there are many, who as you suggest just dont know what to do in their post footy caeere, man of whom struggle wit their mental health because it's so hard to replace the adrenalin, routine and singular focus footy gives players (i mean its not the same as playing but jeez there be a bit of adrenaline and pressure involved in umpiring game in front of 80, 000 baying fans).

And ex-players would have instant cred when going out to local footy clubs and leagues to, for example work with young umpires, umpire match sims etc etc.

They could be given other skills and training, like coaching and instruction, skills that are very transferable.

10 hours ago, Roost it far said:

There’s not a club in the land that couldn’t work out how to get Koz on their list if he wanted to come. Players retire, players get traded, front and back loading, a rising cba, where there’s a will there’s a way.

Sure, every club would love koz but that's why there is a salary cap.

As Jaded notes i forgot Bolton, who must be on huge coin and Young, who has just re-signed.

To match what the dees seem to be offering koz, Freo would likely have to cut at least top 10 players, who unless coming out of contract would have to agree to any move, not to mention there being a in willing and able to pick them up and match their salary.

And then there's the issue of list balance one from has already had issues with by spending so much capital (salary and contract length) on Jackson when they already had a highly paid number one ruck in Darcy.

Bolton plays almost exactly the same role koz would - damaging small forward who can run thru the middle. As noted, they are paying him a motza.

Adding koz on a contract that matches our offer would mean having aprox 2.5 million dollars a year or their salary cap tied up in small forwards.

And then there's team culture considerations. If Freo were to match our offer koz would likely instantly become their highest paid players.

Which might, or might not cause ructions, but it certainly would likely result in up and coming players like Treacey looking elsewhere in the knowledge they won't be able to command anywhere near same coin at Freo as they would on the open market.

33 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

If Freo really want him they can offer him the same deal we have. They can work that into their cap. You can’t tell me they’re paying their list more than we’re paying ours. We just know what he’s worth to us and it’s plenty. We’re bland without him and just about anything is possible with him on our list.

Can't see them affording Jackson, Darcy, Serong, Brayshaw AND Koz (even if they traded Darcy). Treacey would be wanting some of the action too

6 hours ago, The Cult of Disco Turner said:

Fine by me.

Kozzy is the most electric player in the country and I’m happy to buy a ticket to every game even if we’re [censored] just to watch him play

Yep - Koz is box office.

That goal he kicked of the ground from 45 was lucky, but genius makes its own luck. It was yet another jaw drop moment he's given us.

He's just so great to watch - and surely that's should be a massive factor in his salary.

That and the fact he's arguably our best kick, certainly most reliably accurate goal kicker, best mid and best forward.

2 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Max Gawn has been quoted that not only was he surprised to be called to play on, but actually was anticipating a 50m penalty due to multiple Collingwood players encroaching on the mark.

The audio is unclear in the 'last two minutes' video about when exactly the play on was called, but there were clearly three Magpies inside and not leaving the protected area.

I haven't been able to bring myself to watch the replay yet, or watch any video, so it didn't click a 50 should have been paid.

That could have been a a game changer - literally. A 50 would have stopped the clock, taken Max to inside the centre square , meaning a 50 metre kick would put it inside 50 (or a handball give and go even deeper) - with time enough for a mark or crumbing goal.

2 hours ago, Ted Lasso said:

The worst one for me was they gave a red hot insufficient intent against sparrow early and then the same umpire let daicos handball into into row 27

The thing that was so incredibly frustrating with the Sparrow free (which was right in front of me) was that the rule he supposedly broke was insufficient intent to keep the ball in play- yet he literally (and I mean that literally) was desperately trying to keep the [censored] BALL IN PLAY!!!!!!

The rule was brought in (replacing deliberate) to reduce the number of OOBs and keep the ball in play more.

Which was precisely what Sparrow was trying to do. In fact more than that he was clearly trying to get it to a teammate.

If he wanted to take it out he would have picked up the ball, taken the tackle and allowed himself to be taken over the boundary, which he was hard up against.

The irony is that happens 20 plus times a game, never gets pinged despite the sole intention being to take it OOB.

5 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Just on this point, you only increase pressure points if the player who has taken the mark plays on. A kick from a set position (following a mark or free) is worth 75 pressure points (technically 0.75 points) if the player does not play on.

So @WheeloRatings , i could be right, sort of:

• The pies chip it around their half back line, we DON'T close up hard and try and force a turnover (which if we did do so would accrues lots of pressure points, partic if it involves physical contact) - we don't accrue many pressure points

• The Pies don't play on very often from the marks that we are giving them therefore we don't accrue any pressure points for standing on the mark

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

It also buys into the possibility that we’re setting up further back to allow our F50 to clear before we re enter. I thought we were great defensively yesterday. I’d love a few of those moments again, we all know the ones.

Yes, great point. I suspect you're right.

19 minutes ago, The Cult of Disco Turner said:

Pies supporters on both sides of me in the office today.

It is taking all my strength not to lose my temper.

Pray for me.

You can borrow one my sledges for such fans from the bad old days (ie 1977 to 2017, with some gaps) - a half decent team would have beaten us by 8 goals.

8 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I double checked the Herald Sun and can confirm that's what's printed. While I don't have access to the underlying data to confirm it, a significantly higher proportion of Collingwood's possessions were uncontested compared to Melbourne. And 44% of their possessions in the last quarter were marks (which result a very low pressure rating).

Melbourne's attack on the ball was great which resulted in a contested possession win, but that means Melbourne's disposal is under more pressure. As the pressure rating is assigned to each disposal, if you don't win many contested possessions, your disposal is not under as much pressure.

Proportion of possessions which were marks

	Match	4th Qtr
Melbourne	23%	30%
Collingwood	32%	44%

Proportion of possessions which were uncontested

	Match	4th Qtr
Melbourne	55%	52%
Collingwood	68%	73%

Thanks @WheeloRatings

That would suggest we didn't push up on them hard (which accrues pressure points) after taking a mark.

Normally that would mean our pressure game was off but as you note we smashed them in contested possessions, which is an unusual combination- ie low pressure rating, high cp numbers.

I wonder if not pressing up was by design?

The pies are one of the best transition teams in the AFL - when they press go.

Daniel Hoyne has pointed out they are the slowest side in the AFL by some margin in Moving the ball from a mark or free (conversely we are one of the quickest).

Perhaps the strategy was to let them have those marks and use the time they give teams to set up our defensive grid and make it difficult to transition.

If so it was wildly successful- they only scored 28 points from their defensive half. For context on average we have conceded nearly 41 points from the back half this season (67 last week).

Keeping the pies, as noted a gun transition team, to only 28 points from their back half on what was essentially a dry day, is seriously impressive.

11 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Collingwood (Round 13, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20251308

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	166	201	-35
2	170	184	-14
3	159	178	-19
4	146	183	-37
Match	161	186	-25

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Clayton Oliver	23	54	52.2
Tom Sparrow	20	44	37.9
Kysaiah Pickett	21	40	37.1
Trent Rivers	15	35	31.0
Christian Petracca	14	34	34.8
Ed Langdon	12	33	31.3
Kade Chandler	13	26	32.6
Koltyn Tholstrup	10	25	26.0
Jake Bowey	11	24	28.3
Jake Lever	8	22	20.0
Daniel Turner	8	22	16.9
Xavier Lindsay	8	21	27.1
Harvey Langford	13	20	21.2
Harrison Petty	9	20	18.4
Christian Salem	8	16	20.8
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	20.7
Blake Howes	8	15	15.2
Bayley Fritsch	7	13	19.8
Max Gawn	3	10	20.6
Caleb Windsor	4	8	22.0
Jake Melksham	4	8	18.8
Judd McVee	6	8	15.6
Steven May	2	3	9.2

Source: Herald Sun

I'm amazed our pressure was so low.

146 in the last quarter? That doesn't seem right,

16 minutes ago, Nasher said:

This is one of the arguments against full time umpires, in that many of them have well paid careers already that they’d then have to give up if they wanted to continue to umpire. The pay would need to be competitive - also because it’s a fairly dead end job with a finite shelf-life, in a similar way to playing is.

This is one of the arguments the media often make when poo pooiing the idea of umpires going professional.

Not having a shot at you Nasher, but it's one if the arguments that does my head in because it's got a false assumption baked into it.

The assumption is a professional umpiring model would build on the current model - which is that most (all?) umpires are well paid professionals in other fields (usually white collar it would seem, and often lauded as smart, high achievers in that field) and part time umpires.

But they don't have to be. And perhaps that model is actually part of the problem.

An alternative professional model is having a base starting salary of say 130k for AFL umpires. And then bonuses on top - eg finals, marquee games, performance, accuracy, etc.

And perhaps have some levels, eg based on games officiated, performance etc so the base for the best is say 200k plus bonuses.

They train together as a group (aerobic, decision making, team work etc etc) officiate AFL games, AFLW games and go out to local footy clubs leagues and help train young umpires.

I suspect plenty of young men and women who love footy, want to be involved in AFL footy would but know they won't make it as a player, would see that as a legitimate career pathway. One that they could be involved in until their 40s.

We don't need high achieveing accountants and lawyers who are part time umpires.

We need high achieving umpires.

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

Loved Fritta's goals in that last quarter but that decision to play on is stuck in my head. For a guy who's job is to kick goals when the chances come and a guy who has done it in the biggest game, I was baffled with this decision to play on. There was the other moment when he chose to kick to the top of the square.

He kicked one shortly after that from his great handball so I don't want to go too hard but n a game where goals are hard to come by you just tear your hair out in those moments. You just don't see Collingwood doing this in pressure moments.

Fritter just had to go back, use up his full 30 seconds, and kick the goal.

It's beyond a [censored] joke.

Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring.

What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metres away from a contest overruling an umpire who is 15 meters from the contest with an unimpeded view (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week.

Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non-controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against Melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back)

What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose of it then pies players with more time and no free)?

What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions?

What's the deal with non-decisions for blatant free kicks

One of the things that infuriates me is all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one of them.

I mean it's the only logical thing to do.

And the media's halfhearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans.

Can't bite the hand that feeds.

And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL.

And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.

41 minutes ago, Webber said:

And the deciding factor…….the umpiring. It’s a blight on this great game, and the voices that matter aren’t allowed to talk about it.

It's beyond a [censored] joke.

Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring.

What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metreS away from a contest overrulimg an umpire who is 15 metres from the cintest with an unimpeded virew (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week.

Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back)

What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose od it then pies players with more time and no free)?

What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions?

Whats the deal with non decisions of blatant free kicks

One of the things that infuriates me us all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one if them.

I mean it's the only logical thing to do.

And the media's half hearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans.

Can't bite the hand that feeds.

And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL.

And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.

2 hours ago, old dee said:

That he seldom holds. Still living on the promise of 2023.

Bloke kicked 30 goals in the 2024 season, two more than he kicked in 2023.

Thirty goals in a season for a 21 year key forward, in a year we didn't make finals, playing as second ruck, is outstanding and compares favourably with the very best key forwards in the last 20-30 years.

But sure, still living on the promise of 2023.

1 minute ago, adonski said:

Leftfield..but Howes to be sub and play a potential medium forward role if needed (Melk) IMO. Obviously he can play tall and small in defence too should injury strike, and also allows us to put Disco forward later in the game

Howe is pretty good sub option I reckon.

Offers terrific flexibility.

As you say he can play back, tall and small and at a pinch, as you suggest, forward.

But he can also play wing, releasing the boson to play as a mid or replacing him or Lindsay.

46 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

North have a massive supporter base in WA. They mentioned it on radio & said because of all the nth players that are from WA

Ross the boss Glendinning being a big one I suspect.

7 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Teams are announced on a timeframe dictated by the AFL. What a completely ridiculous thing to pot the club over.

I find it so weird - presumably people who post on thiscsite support the dees. Yet some just do nothing but knock tbe club.

It makes it impossible to take anything they write seriously.

9 minutes ago, Redleg said:

The king hit on Smith by Matthews was disgusting and he should have been charged by the police. The Giles one was only slightly less disgusting.

Great footballer but absolute thug.

I was at that game. The worst thing I've ever seen on a football field.

It was a smart coaching move by Barass to put Smith on Matthews, who was basically playing as a full forward.

Normally Matthews had defenders on him roughly the same size but he'd was just too good one on one. Smith was taller obviously and was giving Matthews a comeyebath.

So Matthews hit him, from behind IIRC - certainly Smith didn't see it coming.

Lost all respect for Matthews that day. Still infuriates me the esteem he is held in.

11 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Watching lions not miss shots hurts even more

At least your pain was soothed.

Not mine - backed lions for a win (though more at the line, so the pain wasn't too bad - but jeez, kicking the bloody goal lions!)

34 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Not going to disagree with the basic premise that pressure is important but if you want a deep dive...

First 7 games of the years, yes pressure wins (losses) were correlated with results. However, against wc, hawks, brisbane and sydney (tie) the results were actually inversely correlated with pressure. No question if you have a significant drop off you leave yourself very open to be scored. But if its 50/50 which a lot games are its actually only mildly significant based on our results. (Lets call it a 66 percent hit rate)

As a comparison, some old fashion metrics, inside 50s and marks inside 50s.

For us inside 50s we have only lost the inside 50s twice all year (hawks and gc). Inside 50s mean nothing for us sadly.

Marks inside 50, we have won 5 times resulting in 4 wins. Lost 7 times for 6 losses So 10 out 12 games 'hit' rate.

No doubt one can argue pressure will help win the marks inside 50. Imo our real deficiency relative to the rest of the comp is catching the darn thing near goal and putting it thru the middle. Anyway those are the numbers.

That's the numbers for this season, fir us but you'rer right its not a direct correlation of course - though I will note that in the four wins you highlight the gap in pressure rating was marginal in three as you note the swans game tied).

And I'd also note 66% hit rate is statistically significant.

I suspect if the analysis was say 10 pressure points differential or would be close to 100%.