binman

11 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

13.6 in the second half! Unbelievable stuff, would’ve been an absolute flogging if we kicked better in the first and they didn’t get some flukey ones.

We dominated them all day and should’ve been further up at the half. Max really wanted to beat Grundy today, another huge effort from the big fella but Koz gets the 3 votes. Too quick, too good all day.

AJ had the fumbles but managed to create a few goals by hitting bodies, reckon he stays in.

Hopefully Lever’s ankle is ok, looked like he tweaked it late. Spargo out (concussion), Viney in (concussion).

Spargs passed the HIA test apparently.

19 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

We’re evolving. First year players in Lindsay and Langford start on the wings with Langdon on the interchange…since when?

Lindsay played pretty much the entire game on the Warne Stand side…the new Langdon.

Don’t look at Petty’s low disposal count as a negative, he worked Sydney’s best interceptor in McCartin over all day, a selfless game.

Enjoy a marvelous win all.

Great call on petty.

I sat with a mate and his son in the forward pocket at the punt road end, one row back from the fence.

That's the first time I've sat on the fence at an AFL gamec in so long i cant even remember the last time- maybe the 1981 grand final.

So for half the match I had a close up view of petts. His work rate and physicality against McCartin was unbelievable.

McCartin is a beast, must have 10kg on petts, but petts didn't give him an inch. So important, one to deny intercept marks and two get tge ball to ground for koz and the gang.

13 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Clarry ❤️❤️❤️

I love him so much. Great game.

Guts and Determination.

His season high tackle count is 9.

He had 8 at half time (7 in the first quarter!), and 12 at the end.

8 minutes ago, praha said:

Sydney is very lucky that wasn't a 20+ goal belting. They were equally as bad as we were good

Sometimes when a team is poor it's mote about how well their opponent plays, and how effectively the oppo takes away their strengths and exploits their weaknesses.

Today was one such example.

3 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

That’s a negative binman

Really?

Blimey, must be a small crowd.

Thanks for the heads up.

Can anyone there confirm if the top of the ponsford open?

50 minutes ago, sisso said:

The punters would agree with you as on Betfair we are slight favourites so that’s the way the money is going on the exchange. Hopefully we get it done as to lose would feel a bit like we wasted our epic win last week!

I suspect we'll shorten and start equal favourites at 1.85.

I don't bet on the dees but if I did I would back us for a win today based on my assessment we are overs at 2.00.

Objectively we should be favourite - I'd peg us at 1.75 to win.

• Playing on our home deck and our opponents have to travel

• We have close to our best 22 team and our opponents are missing at least 5-6 of their best 22

• They are missing tall forwards which creates a structural problem for them

• Last year, at their best, they were one of the best transition teams going with a method we struggled to negate - this year they are below mid table for transition and are relying on winning contest and territory, which is our one wood

• We have won 4 of our last 5 games

• The Swas have lost 3 of their last 5 games

• We are coming off a win against the premiership on their home deck, with, in horse racing parlance, the lions franking that form last night (also helping my punting bank)

• The Swans, at home against a travelleing team, struggled to get past the blues, who do anything but frank the form getting smashed at home by the giants

Note: that doesn't in of itself mean I think we'll win. Just means I think a dees victory is the most probable outcome hence 2.00 is good value.

BUT I do think we'll win.

If we kick straight I'm predicting a 32 point victory

4 minutes ago, Dee in a Kilt said:

I was also at that 2018 West Coast prelim @BDA . What a shocking experience. I sat behind Jordan Lewis's wife and 6 year old son, who had his Dad's number on his back. The Eagle fans noticed this. In the first quarter, when Jordan made a handball error gifting the Eagles a goal, a mass of Eagle fans stood up, all looking at Jordan's wife and son, thrusting their arms up and down, pointing at wife and child. Jordan's son immediately crawled into his Mum's lap in the embryo position...And they kept yelling and pointing...

There are times when human acts frighten me.

Having said that, I agree Collingwood supporters are worse.

Proud to be a Melbourne fc supporter.

I was in Perth too. Horrible crowd. Horrible day.

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

jvr now has 2 goals 3 as the siren goes, but i think the big callout for his game is the 13 marks, at least 5 or 6 of which have been contested

100% agree.

That's why you send best 22 players back to the magoos. Get some confidence back and get back to basic.

And for jvr that's about clunking his marks leading out hard. Tick. Tick

Jeffo another good tackle inside 50 and he kicks 5.

Good signs.

Jeffo great tackle inside 50.

Kicks his 4th goal.

Good signs.

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Jesus. Calm down.

He is a fine kick when he takes the time he can take.

Contrary to your disposition occasionally - people can disagree.

I have my view, and you have yours.

Calm down?

All I said was bollocks, hardly an example of getting wound up or a furious repudiation of your opinion.

Jesus. Thin skin much.

Kolt"s energy, effort and body language much, much better than last week.

Good signs.

Sestan on fire.

Great one grab contested mark by jeffo. Goes back and nails it.

By the came after a nice intercept mark by sestan followed up by another neat short kick that hit its target.

JVR also has clunked a couple of strong marks.

Great signs

Laurie kicks a goal on the back of two sestan 30 metre kicks in the scoring chain that hit their target.

Easy kicks yes, but they are exactly the kicks that need to be hit 90% of the time but that we struggle with.

I reckon sestan is not far away from breaking into the seniors.

On 20/05/2025 at 14:13, Engorged Onion said:

Oh, I wasn't having a crack at you, or disagreeing with the data - not in the slightest.

What I feel is a more accurate representation is the volume of shots on goal over the course of the seasons versus the accuracy. In looking at the data, cause I am home sick on the couch and refuse to watch daytime tv - the marrative that accuracy is important is frequently overstated. Of course though, I acknowledge it FEELS important and looks awful when it's a tight match.

I jumped on Wheelostats - but it doesn't really matter - the difference rom best to worst is typically only 10–14% over the past few seasons. This equates to roughly 1 to 1.4 additional goals per 10 scoring shots—an impact that is tiny, over the course of a 23 game season.

In contrast, the volume of shots a team generates has a far more significant effect on outcomes. Teams that consistently create more scoring opportunities are better positioned to win, even if their accuracy is slightly below average. Over time, the sheer number of chances tends to outweigh minor inefficiencies in execution.

The players and coaches do know this... this data is spoken about... its just the $hite statistical analysis that is put onto the publc, means we emotionally* interpret the data.

*not at all like SG, who is an emotionless robot...eh.

Great post EO.

It highlights a critiical element of modern coaches' philosophy, particularly goody's - a huge emphasis on percentages and probability. That's to say say strategies informed by the probability of them increasing scoring (or decreaing oppo scoring).

A great example is the shift in the NBA to taking massive numbers of 3 point shots.

That tactical shift, one many people really hate, is a direct result of the data showing that even though a higher percentage of shots get missed than 2 point shots, there is statistical advantage to take more 3 point shots In terms of scoring.

That's to say teams score more taking a higher volume of lower percentage shots.

Goody won a flag playing the percentages - namely a higher volume of inside 50s and winning territory.

There was a tactical response from other team which has changed the percentages and we've had to adjust our method as a result.

I made this post in another thread, but it fits better in this thread.

Note: the context is our improvement in what could be considered goody's core fundamentals- contested possessions, pressure etc:

Agree those stats reflect goody's focus on his fundamentals - pressure, contest and inside 50 tackling and pressure.

Bur we are definitely making some fundamental changes to our method, a process we began in thefirst two thirds of last season

For example we are third in the AFL for uncontested possessions, a reflection of the way we are chipping it around to stretch opposition zones and maintain possession until we can find a path to attack and then press the button.

I reckon another factor in using the chip it around strategy, which freo also use, is it helps to minimise turnovers and intercepts because there's less emphasis on getting it forward at all costs

We're still turning it over too much (4th - Swans are number 1) but we're way better in terms of clangers. We are 14th for clangers, two spots better than the pies and just above Suns, Dockers, Dogs and Hawks - all teams that arw considered excellent kicking sides.

By the by the Swans are number one for most clangers, which bodes well for us if we bring the heat, which I fully expect us to do

I don't put much stock in the kicking efficiency stat, but for what it's worth we are above the Swans this season, 68% to 64.9%. In fact we are 2nd in the afl (behind freo), though that's probably a function of our chip it around strategy, which freo also use.

The Swans' clangers and key stats really show the impact if losing so many quality plsyers, Gulden being the big one).

Another change is how quick we are moving the ball when we take a mark or win a free. I'm not sure whete we're are at now but 3 weeks ago we were top 3 for how quickly we played on after a free or mark.

We've still got a long way to go to get the transition game right - we're 18th for scores from defensive half for example.

Bur we're getting there.

Take that last stat. Yes we're not scoring enough from our back half. BUT we are actually 5th for transitioning the ball from our D50 inside our 50.

We are one posiion above a hawks team many consider to be thev best transition team and below other excellent transition team in the Dogs, Suns, (surprisingly) Blues and Cats

That suggests that we are actually transitioning effectively but breaking down once we get inside our 50 (no shock to dees fans).

If we can improve our last kick inside 50, and our forward line effectiveness more generally we can really improve our scoring from the back half very quickly, which makes us a big threat if we can maintain our contest and pressure levels.

41 minutes ago, sue said:

Sorry, it's clear from the posts that many of us do not agree that it is a strange call. I won't repeat the justifications that have been made for such a call nor refute the nonsense about lack of respect to TMac.

But it's true that many here will blame Goody if things go wrong - probably the same people who complain about Goody not doing anything new/bold/playing favourites.

And the same people who won't give goody credit for his confusing selections last week (jvr dropped, AJ in, Fritter keeping his spot) proving to be good calls

On 21/05/2025 at 20:25, Wrecker45 said:

It's funny all those stats we have come roaring back into elie in are the ones we dominated in 2021 our premiership year.

As @binman (and i) have said repeatedly you need to play to your strengths and the new game plan is just another string to the bow not our solution.

We can't compete at elite and precision kicking there is no point taking on teams with that when we are not elite at it.

We can compete with our old strengths back, a little less predictability and a few kids like Langdon, X and Windsor who can kick.

Agree those stats reflect goody's focus on his fundamentals - pressure, contest and inside 50 tackling and pressure.

Bur we are definitely making some fundamental changes to our method, a process we began in the two thirds of last season

For example we are third in the AFL for uncontested possessions, a reflection of the way we are chipping it around to stretch opposition zones and maintain possession until we can find a path to attack and then press the button.

I reckon another factor in using the chip it around strategy is it helps to minimise turnovers and intercepts because there's less emphasis on getting it forward at all costs.

We're still turning it over too much (4th - Swans are number 1) but we're way better in terms of clangers. We are 14th for clangers, two spots better than the pies and just above Suns, Dockers, Dogs and Hawks - all teams that arw considered excellent kicking sides.

By the by the Swans are number one for most clangers, which bodes well for us if we bring the heat, which I fully expect us to do

I don't put much stock in the kicking efficiency stat, but for what it's worth we are above the Swans this season, 68% to 64.9%. In fact we are 2nd in the afl (behind freo), though that's probably a function of our chip it around strategy, which freo also use.

The Swans' clangers and key stats really show the impact if losing so many quality plsyers, Gulden being the big one).

Another change is how quick we are moving the ball. I'm not sure whete we're are at now but 3 weeks ago we were tp 3 for how quickly we played on after a free or mark.

We've still got a long way to go to get the transition game right- we're 18th for scores from defensive half for example.

Bur we're getting there - take that last stat. Yes we're nor scoring enough from our back half BUT we are actually 5th for transitioning the ball from our D50 inside our 50. We are one posiion above a hawks team many consider to be thevl best transion team and below other excellent transition team in the Dogs, Suns, (surprisingly) blues and Cats

That suggests that we are actually transitioning effectively but breaking down once we get inside our 50 (no shock to dres fans). If we can improve our last kick inside 59 and our forward line effectiveness more generally we can really improve our scoring from the back half very quickly, which makes us a big threat if we can maintain our contest and pressure levels.

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Goalkicking is completely seperate to field kicking. They are different mindsets. Petracca - when he is dumping the ball out of a contest is a net negative. When he uses his feet or hands to get out and forward of the contest and takes a beat to hit an option - he is at his best.

Bollocks.

Tracc's technique is woeful whether he us kicking for goal or his field kicking. Which us wh5 both is so poor. Nothing to donwirh decision making.

5 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

Heaps of people here coz 10+ years members were invited.

Pfft bloody weekenders

We're we?

News to me.

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

@binman thoughts on selection ? I’m so confused

I know we are not within the clubs four walls but …

Why is Spargo still in? Underperforming for 7 weeks. Last week he was a liability.

Tmac has been good all year. I get team balance but bringing Lever back was supposed to allow us to potentially put Turner forward. Very harsh on Tmac.

Culley an emergency? He was average for Casey last week Howes or Kynan Brown must be closer to selection

I’m confused ! But again we must trust the brain power of the club insiders

It's actually one of the least confusing team selections in the last few weeks.

Lever has to come in, and there's no universe goody doesn’t seleect May if fit.

The other factor is Lever and May playing together is more than the sum of the parts.

They've only played together five times this season, and obviously not at all whilst Lever has been out. It will be great to see them wax on Sunday.

Turner stays in, and they probably want to settle him down back meaning not playing as a forward.

And With Amartey and Francis out they are lacking height.

All of which means a tall defender has to come out and Tmac got the short straw.

Spargo is the new Nibbla.

The KPIs for his role would prioritise defensive running, pressure and tackles inside 50, assists and score involvements. Yes he's a forward but goals are a bonus.

Im not saying he's been brilliant (though he's been better than many have suggested) but he has played his role, is presumably meeting his KPIs (hence his selection) and is clearly an important part of our forward line structure and system.

On Sculley, I reckon he's got something. Tough, reads the ball well, wins his own ball and is a lefty with a neat kick.