binman

Damn - we only needed 747 more steps to make it a nice round 20, 000 step podcast. I blame myself - i forgot to highlight Whatley's ridiculous call as the siren went when he said with great fervor - "Melbourne rescue their season'. Sheesh. And what about the 'how did the Lions lose that game" narrative the media are pushing. Coz the dees didn't have anything to do with it did they! If it was the Pies reeling in 5 goal deficit it would have all been Daicos this, Pies that, never count them out this, have my baby Nick that blah blah blah.

Calm down? A bit of poetic licence from me. Chill bro Mono. For what it's worth I expect him to be picked this week and to play.

As a tall defender?

Haven't watched the presser - but it sounds more like grumpy goody than laconic goody. I like grumpy goody.

The other complicating factor for tomo next year is disco Turner, who may well be ahead of tomo too.

I have a different take. Our effort was first class the whole game. I don't think our work rate dropped much, if at all. Def a four quarter effort. They are very good side, who also worked hard all game, and there is no chance we would have won that game if we only showed up for only half a game. And really the game started turning our way half way thru the third. I don't think we are quite there yet with our collective running ability cover the ground quickly. Which impacts ability to get back and also cover off those short leads. But we are def much closer to overall optimal fitness and I think have a fitness edge over tge lions. And used that edge to grind them into the ground And as their energy fell away they had to abandon the short kicks because it takes a huge amount of energy for mutiple leads, most unrewarded that method requires. We were doing something similar in the first few games.

That is fascinating observation about the correlation between oppo mark differential and score. One of the questions for the podcast is what happened in the second and third quarter in terms of the lions getting on top. I watched the replay with that question in mind, and part of my answer was that the Lions really stretched the G and used the switch more than in any game since i could recall since the first half of 2022 when teams were desperately looking for ways to get past our defence the first Port game being the best example. Teams gave up on that model because it became very clear that going fast was the only way to consistently trouble our defence because it makes it hard for it to get set. Credit to McRae because he obviously gerried to this before the rest of the comp and made fast ball movement the foundation of their method. But Brisbane used a variation of the slow ball movement and keepings off method teams use in the 2022. They switched and chipped it around - which of course involves lots of uncontested marks. But they didn't go overboard on that and combined it with incisive 20 -30 metre kicks going forward to lead up players. Again lots of uncontested marks. And we seemed to allow many of these kicks - partic the switch kicks (which we always do). Our defence was set deeper than against the Pies, in part becuase Danhiher dragged May back to goal. And unlike against the Blues and Pies we didn't seem to look create density and congestion, and didn't apply much frontal pressure, or close down space. So there was a lot of space - which the Lions took advantage of with lots of sharp passes. My feeling is part of the strategy was to separate our key defenders to isolate May and Lever one out (because they are both vulnerable one on one i reckon, partic lever) and limit the ability of lever, may and Petty to intercept mark - which is key driver of our scoring. The strategy worked really well, as not only did it blunt May, Lever and petty and give their tall forwards good one on one looks, they were able to tic tac over our zone wit kicks and create overlap that way. The goal Ashcroft kick was the perfect example of what i mean. I';; check the stats for our previous three games against the Lions, but my gut feel is their uncontested marks numbers would have bene high in those games too - and its worth noting they are one of the few teams who have been able to regularly open us up. Another interesting part of all that using uncontested marks is clearly as they they have used specifically for the dees. It is it likely the Pies would try and follow suit? I din think so becuase every person and their dog have them on a pedestal so their conceit would be they don't need to try such a strategy to beat us.

Yep. So beautifully symmetrical

Yes, you can can just scan in. But you can only sit in in general admission area. But there is heaps of them, and there wont be more than 30k there so finding a decent GA seat won't be hard

Doesn't sound ridiculous at all. A good team, who have genuine leg speed, quality across all lines, potent forward line as evidenced by their crazy good percentage, a strong sytem dialled to run and carry like the pies and buy in. They won't be as flat against us as they have been for the last couple of games, and I expect them to be running on top of the ground on Sunday and present a real challenge. My expectation is they will attack, and look to run at as with handball chains and wave running a la the pies. If they can beat us or port next round, I think they’ll make the 8. I don't think they'll beat us, but I reckon they're a huge chance of beating Port, as Port will struggle defensively with the crows speed of ball movement from the back half (as do we if not on).

I just watched that too. Good question by robbo asking if playing Hockey helped his defence. Yes was Judd's answer.

He seems to find a way to get smashed every game. Not conducive to a long career as a key defenders.

Good call - he really is a smooth mover. And such a smart user of the ball. Big upside as he starts to get bigger and stronger. He'll be a beast with a few more preseasons under the belt.

The cats are def the best team outside the top 4 and Scott has once again made clear they are all about peaking come finals. I know the game is at the gabba, but ad a way of demonstrating how good the lions are and how good our win was, the lions are currently 1.48 to beat the cats this week. By way of contrast we are 1.35 to heat the crows.

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

If the pies do beat Port, and go 2-2 against the other top 4 sides, It us worth noting that both their wins are against Port. Whereas we have beaten the pies and the lions, and the lions the pies and us.

Right. As funny as the loading jokes are, I wasn't making a case a factor in the crows form is fatgue - though I believe that to be the case (i watched the whole gws game and it was crystal clear halfway thru the third they were out of gas - and they basically stopped to a walk in the last. They had a 17 point lead at 3 quarter time and were always going to get reeled in - they lost by 14, meaning a 5 goal turnaround, and could only manage 1 scoring shot, a point, to the giants' seven scoring shots). I was making the point that an article that discusses their drop in form that doesn't at least ask the question if fatgue from loading might be a factor is doing crows fans a disservice. Particularly when Burgess is their fitness guy. I mean c'mon. You have at least had the opportunity to consider if fatigue from loading is a factor because of the discussion on here. And you have decided it isnt. Which is your prerogative. But surely if you were a crows fans you'd like to get a sense of the possible causes of their drop off. The closest that article comes to positing any theories of the cause is 'the declining form of Rankine and the undisciplined actions of Rachele' and noting Tex didn't get a touch in the second half of the gws game. Otherwise it is just a typical shopping list of stats that point to the symptoms not the cause. Maybe you are right, and the issue is simply that the Crows are not that good, their talent is young or very old and that fluctuates. Maybe, despite the fact you could see with your eyes they were gassed and the clear parallels to the impact of loading on the dees under Burgess and his acolyte,Selwyn Griffith (eg accuracy drop, scoring drop, losing games when fav etc etc) you are right and fatigue from loading is not a factor. But surely it is worth including the possibility it might be so readers can decide for themselves and perhaps do what you have done and reject the idea loading is a factor. Or perhaps think, gee that's interesting - I'll give that some thought Otherwise it is not even in the conversation.

id be happy with a draw

Did you watch the gws crows game?

I agree with all that - but i was actually making a gag

"Suddenly, the Crows are not the inside 50 marking team that they were in the first half of the year, they are losing more 1v1 contests and have lost their accurate touch in front of goal" Mmm, i wonder what might explain their drop off? Struggling with 'connection issues', scoring dropping off, losing one on ones, their elite accuracy strangely gone? Not sure why, but that all sounds very familiar. In all seriousness, this article makes my point about why it is so ridiculous the footy media don't factor in fatigue into their analysis of where teams are at, PARTICULARLY when trying to explain a seemingly unexpected, difficult to understand, sudden drop off in form and scoring power. If the author of that article had at least included the possibility fatigue from loading might be a contributing factor in their form drop off, at least Crows fans (and anyone else for that matter) could choose to consider and/or reject that idea. And for pete's sake, their head of fitness is Burgess and the dees had exactly the same drop off when he was our fitness guy, so it hardly takes much of leap of journalistic logic to at least speculate about fatigue and loading.

From the article: "Demons legend Garry Lyon has conceded he thinks its “unlikely” Brodie Grundy will remain at the club next year after he’s fallen out of favour in his preferred No. 1 ruck position..... Given the nature of Gundy’s exit from Collingwood, former Magpies coach Nathan Buckley suggested the dual All-Australian would have his head around the nature of the business. “One thing that we know is Brodie Grundy is not under any illustrations about how cutthroat and professional this game is,” Buckley told On the Couch." I think they are drawing the wrong conclusions

Weather starts getting nicer. Finals come into view. The dees start rolling as the final act of the season commences. Oh and the spring racing season is close. My favorite time of year. A new spring ritual has been added since 2021 - the ladder prediction tool on the AFL website (basically the only useful thing on that whole god forsaken site). And post the win on Friday night i have put it to work. The most common scenario I land on is the same first week finals as above, ie the top four in order is Pies, Port, Lions and the Dees, Even if Power beat the Pies this week, with the percentage buffer the Pies have it is hard to see them not finishing top and Port second. If Port do beat the Pies they will have almost locked in second place. But if they lose to the Pies, suddenly the derby the following week against the Crows is huge because the following week they play the Cats at Kardinia park. Including their loss against the blues, it is not inconceivable they could drop four games in succession. If that were to transpire and we win our remaining six games and the lions win 5 of their 6 games (the loss being to the Pies at Marvel - a game they have g odd shot of wining i think), Port, the Lions and the dees would all finish on 68 points. But the Dees and Lion would raffle second and third position because both teams' percentage is way better than Ports. in that scenario, Port play Pies week one at the G. And the dees would play the Lions at the Gabba or the G depending on percentage. The Lions can score heavily, but only have one game against a relative easy beat, Freo in round 9 - and that game is a home game for Freo. But we have two games against teams in the bottom third of the ladder - the Roos and Hawks. Those two games might end up being critical in terms deciding second and third place on percentage and therefore, in the scenario where Port drop the next 3 games (and we win our remaining games and lions win 5 of 6), if we play week one at the G or at the Gabba. In the scenario Port lose to Pies, beat Crows, lose to Cats but then win their remaining games (which is more probable than them losing to the Crows), and we win all six remaining games and lions go 5 of six, Port finish second and the Lions and dees raffle third on percentage. I think we will eclipse the Lions' percentage, so finishing third and playing Port in Adelaide week one is a real possibility. My preference is we finish fourth and play the Pies week one at the G. Snuff out the Pies mania and i have a better chance of being able to attend the game.

It's only a 50 minute drive isn't it?

Fortunately for dees fans, his confident prediction a few weeks back that freo would take our spot in the top four is unlikely to prove accurate.