binman

Agree they look good. And they look very, very fit. Elite fitness. But I'm not ready to declare them a top 4 team. In fact i think they might miss the 8. Yes they are fit, but that game style will be incredibly hard to maintain all season. And the Cats all team defence was really poor, for much of the match but particularly in the last when they completely ran out of gas (having so many injured players impacting rotations no doubt was a factor, but i'm really hoping it is an indication the cats are not as fit as they were at the start of 2022) It's worth noting they weren't having to play such high pressure games against quality opponents till a third of the way through last season. All of their games in 2023 against top 8 contenders will be huge, with massive crowds and finals like pressure games from the get go. That has to be mentally draining. And they continue to struggle defensively and give up too many easy goals. A situation made worse by the awful injury to their second best defender. You'd think Howe will be out for at least half a season, maybe longer, so that is a huge loss for a team that barely had an injury last season. He is super important for them.

Nor can i.

All excellent points Luci In particular that Geelong's all ground defence was poor. Could not agree more. In part that was no doubt a function of losing rotations with their injuries, but it just showed how important all team gut running (ie to press up on the ball carrier, to apply pressure to he ball carrier, to get numbers into the corridor, to cover switches, to push back to help out in defence etc etc) will be this season, and therefore how critical elite fitness will be. The cats didn't score a goal in the last quarter. The pies scored 5. The lack of run from the cats meant poor all team defence and an inability to create overlap themselves. To be honest it reminded me of the last 15 minutes of our last 5-6 games.

Fortunately you will be. Weightman out for them is huge - who is going to win the ground ball inside 50 given their other small forward option Arthur Jones is also out? The struggle defensively, so Gardiner out hurts. And they are also missing vandemeer and Rorke Smith. Don't think smith is best 22. But that still means in Weightman, vandermeer and gardiner they are missing 3 of their best 22 (though probably only Weightman is in their top 10 like all of May, Salem, Fritter and Viney). They are learning a new system. Four talls is an experiment. One not yet tested in the crucible of an AFL game, let alone against a defensive system as strong as ours. We are so well drilled we could continue to roll along even if the lights go out. We are as fit as I've ever seen any AFL team. Dees by 34

Dees by 34

That works.

Was just thinking that. He looks as fit and strong as he has in years. And he still has sublime skills, and gets value with almost all his possessions. So much time.

Not sure if i registered. But i def picked the get hard card option. And voucher not scarf. No pack as of yet, which given i paid up in no last year seems crazy. But i just checked and i could still download my electronic ticket on my app on my phone, which i've done. So no issue getting into the ground thank goodness - well except for the fact there is 50 50 chance i won't be able to go through the turnstiles (it drives me spare waving my phone under the scanner waiting for that stupid green GO sign to flash - a situation made more frustrating when invariably the 16 year old attendee standing at the gate looks pityingly at me like i only recently discovered the internet)

I have yet to receive my membership card (which i ordered as a back up - 50% of games i went to my phone would not scan though the turnstiles and i had to go via a person who scanned with a hand held device - as obviously others had to do given there was person at each gate for exactly that purpose - so bloody annoying as it involved basically lining up twice) Has anyone else not yet received their card (nb: i paid my membership last Nov)?

Sure. But the way that game was played, with the ball in constant motion and players having to run back and forward all game is incredibly taxing. As you suggest, neither team will be in as good a nick at any future point in the season as they are right now. Which is a key reason why, based on how both failed to run out the game, i don't think either team will make the 8 . The game plan most teams will employ this season requires all 22 players to be at, or close to peak fitness. That only happens if almost all players have uninterrupted, unhindered January and February preseasons and miss very few (ideally none) sessions are missed. And of course, even if that happens some teams, like us, will have superior athletes and potentially superior training programs. Maybe some teams do more endurance work or put in more ks. Such teams will have a fitness advantage. I don't know how the tiger's preseason went - did many players miss sessions or couldn't get the clicks in? They looked to run out of puff late in quarter against us and were spent at the end of last nights game. Doesn't augur well. There was an article Andy put up in late Jan tracking how each club was traveling injury wise and it noted Carlton had multiple players struggle with injury (in addition to Walsh and Wiliams who were rehabbing) and i presume missed sessions. Maybe that's why they looked to slow the game down as much as possible and make it a kick mark game (ie they know they have not achieved optimal fitness)?

Leaving aside the topic of the timing and impact of loading, i am increasingly of the view that fitness levels will be one of the top 3 determinants of ultimate success this year (the other two being talent and luck with injury). The game plans of the leading teams this season will all be pretty similar: variations on the tiger's territory template (ie go forward at all costs and win post clearance possession - as opposed to the say the way dog's liked to flick it around out the back or how freo really try to make the ground wide with lots of across ground switching) super quick ball movement to separate the tall defenders and create more one on ones and stop zone defences getting set Ball in motion Win quality contested ball and clearances ala the dees (even the tigers have come round on this) Outnumber the oppo at each contest - whether that be forward or back A challenge for teams employing this game plan will be how bloody taxing it is as it requires a huge amount of all team running (for example to create outnumbers) and there is very little opportunity to get a breather other than going to the bench. Case in point - last night's game. I expected a high scoring match, particularly after two goals in the opening 2 minutes. That first quarter involved lots of aggressive ball movement and whilst the blues did try and slow it down, plenty of forward and back ball movement, with the ball in motion most of the quarter. The third quarter was even more ball in motion, up and down the ground running, with the goals flowing this time. But both teams looked completely gassed by halfway through the last. The standard of footy dropped off a cliff, with any number of fatigue related basic errors. It's one thing to want to play like the tigers tried to. It's another thing to keep that model up to the final siren. Teams that can't do so will not win this year's flag. We look incredibly fit and fast. Fitter and faster than any other team i've seen vison of this preseason (though i haven't seen much of the cats to be honest). I think we may well run over most teams in the first 10 games or so. Particularly any team that has had more than small handful of players miss multiple training sessions in the critical Jan Feb loading phase. Assuming we can hit the finals with the same level of relative fitness advantage we will be very hard to beat.

Another reason why melk makes sense as a sub is if Tmac needs to go back, Melk can play forward. Not exactly like for like, but with Grawny and BB we have enough talls down forward even without Tmac. And Melk is pretty good one on one so plays bit taller than most his size. Just listened to this MFC interview with Goody. Right at the end he is asked about how we will use the sub. Interesting answer from Goody - short version: depends on circumstances, but sometimes it will be tactical and other times it will load management "you'll see a whole range of players used as the sub, whether they're experienced players or younger players" I suspect they will use the sub in part to make sure they are giving the players on the periphery of selection AFL game time, something that was an issue last year.

Good points. I'd add that he has sublime kicking skills, so makes the most of any possession he gets. Given we are going to take the corridor on more often, it's important that the sub has excellent kicking skills in case they have to replace a player with the coach's approval to take that kick when it is high risk (Note: i'm guessing all/most players have a license to take the kick on when it is low risk - eg a dees player is completely free in the corridor - but only a handful of players such as Hunter, Mcvee, Salem, Bowey and Kozzie have the license to take on high risk kicks. By the by there was an example very late in last night's game of just such a kick - Nankervis elected to take on a super high-risk kick to the corridor in the blues half of the ground and flubbed it. The blues then proceeded to flub the turnover opportunity and the tigers were exceedingly lucky to win the ball and go forward. If turned over it would likely have cost the tigers the game). The other thing about the sub this year is that you'd think it's very unlikely we won't use it - even if there is no injury forcing its use. That means the sub is really part of the starting 23. which i think is positive for a senior player like Melk. It also means the sub can be used tactically (eg we need defensive forward because an interceptor or distributor from defence has got off the chain) and melk is a good option because he has the skills and experience to make it work.

100% agree. There's another, inter connected factor at play i think, which you allude to dazzler with the comment he's done his apprenticeship in the 2's and he's ready to go. in terms of both young players such as Chandler AND older players such as Tomo (and hibbo for that matter) the club has to consider the impact on player development, morale (of individual players and collectively) and readiness to play at the senior level of not giving them game time in the ones when the opportunity arises. Who could blame, for instance, Bedford leaving to get more senior game time. How long do you leave talent like JVR in the twos before it starts stalling, or even negative impacting, his development as player. What about players like Melksham and Hibbo. How do you keep them energised and focused?

He is playing in defence apparently. Probably still kick a bag against us.

Mmm, interesting. I'm no psychologist, but classic signs here of one of the more pernicious mental health conditions - curmudgeonitis (commonly referred to as killjoy or wet blanket syndrome). Men over 55 are most at risk of what can be a very debilitating condition, one that is often very hard on friends and family. Education is important in our efforts to battle this scourge. Early diagnosis is the key. # curmudgeonitis is no laughing matter

I wonder if tom's experience was a factor. Big game. Important game. With mcvee debuting, adding a second gamer to the mix would make the back six pretty inexperienced.

Agree that he can go to another level if kicks more goals. Great signs on that front in the praccy matches. Hit some beautiful kicks too But goals are not his kpi Again it is important to look past the old school stats. I'm pretty sure nibbler was top 5 in score involvements last season and was probably top 3 in both score involvements and goal assists across the 2 praccy matchs We score a lot of our goals from the back half on transition. Nibbler is involved in a huge percentage of those scoring chains That's to say HE DOES create scoreboard pressure. Any goals he might kick are a bonus.

Fitness levels at the end? Both teams seemed spent in that last quarter. Plenty of fatigue related mistakes

Just texted almost exactly the same comments to a mate!

Recently listened to that podcast Tom talks about Nibblers (and Spargos) role - a role he calls high half forward. The context for the comments was how much footy had changed in terms of the aerobic demands and the incredible amount of running every player now has to do (eg defensive running, closing space, zoning off etc) (In relation to resting key forwards on the bench Tom says 'the running you gotta do now to get back up the ground defensively, you just want a break, you actually need a rest every quarter.....the high speed repeat running is so bad you can't do it with the intensity without a rest') Of what he calls the high half forward role, Tom says this (from 46.48 - my emphasis): 'The hardest role is the high half forward role, for us it's Alex Neal Bullen and Charlie Spargo. Their running is insane compared to everyone else. So, we measure distance, but then we have this metric called high speed, which is sort of like a fast stride and there's sprint which is above 25, 26 ks, which is flat out. But those boys have most of the game in the high speed band - like over 3ks a game in that striding distance, and it's the hardest position by far because every time there's a turnover they're expected to get back up, in line with the ball to defend and then they have to get out the back on offence - their role sucks' Let's assume Tom McDonald knows what he is talking about. He reckons Nibbler's (and Spargos) role is, by far, the hardest position and their running is insane compared to everyone else. It is logical then that only some players are capable of playing that role. For example Tracc couldn't - he doesn't cover the ground well enough and is a power, not endurance athlete. So, a very specialized, specific role. One that is therefore very hard to fill (as opposed to say a utility or mid role) What player not currently in the best 22 has the tank, athleticism and running power to play Nibbler's role (not to mention the discipline and work ethic)?

It seems as if you are using the term role players as pejorative, as in 'he is just role player'. Peripheral. But to be honest it suggests to me, like many dees fans, you don't understand Nibbler's role or fully appreciate his importance to our team. All players at the demons have a specific role. Nibbler is a critical piece of the puzzle in terms of our game plan and how we play. A few years back fans were slow to pick up the importance of the wing position in footy from a game plan and structural perspective. Or understand that it was a distinct role. Now people get it - and understand it takes a particular skill set - and mind set - to be a top winger. We have drafted in hunter specifically because he can play that role. Every dees fan can conceptualise what the hunter's role will look like. Like the wing position, nibbler plays a critical, defined role that is more than the sum of its parts. But unlike the wing role, nibbler's specific role is really hard to understand just from watching the game. It seems to me players assigned specific roles, like spargo and nibbler, are often unfairly maligned. And I think one reason is because their role is often not understood, and what they do is often hard to measure - particularly when the old 'how many times did he touch the pill', or other old school stat metrics are applied. Back in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, a tagger was probably the only regular designated role player. The tagger was was oft derided, and never a star but it was easy for fans to work out, one, what their role was and two did they perform it well. If their star opponent had fewer possessions and less impact than usual, then job done. It is much harder to assess modern role player's performances. For example by what criteria do fans assess nibblers performance week in, week out. For example, we wouldn't know that a kpi for nibbler is how often he enables tracc to push forward and take up an aggressive, offensive post clearance position (which is a BIG part of our strategy to generate scoring chains) if it didn't come up in an interview tracc did last year. I completely reject the notion that Nibbler's result in the the bluey was somehow a function of durability, or that it because the coaches 'love' him. I think that is disrespectful to nibbler. And to coaches too for that matter. The result is an indication that he played the role he was assigned to a very high level. Perhaps the key asset a gun role player needs, has always needed, is unwavering discipline. Discipline to not diverge from the assigned role and plan. No chasing possessions, or scoring opportunities to appease the critics. In nibbler's case discipline to also run himself into the ground - every single week. On that point, it is worth noting nibbler has been playing much the same role for at least three full seasons now. And has barely been out of ones on that time. It's a bloody hard role - how long would it take, say Chandler, to learn how to play it to anywhere near nibbler's level? If a player doesn't have the same, or greater, endurance as nibbler, he can't play the role. Period. Above all, it's nibblers incredible endurance - and as I noted, discipline to push himself to his limits all game, every game - that, one enables him to play his critical role, and two do it to the level he does. The key challenge for any player that was to come in for nibbler is that they have to be elite level endurance athletes, and runners (ie not a power athlete). By his third season of AFL nibbler already ran further per game than any other player in the team. By some margin. He was only 21 that year (2017). Super fit and athletic then - he has only got fitter and a better runner since The only comparable athletes in the team in terms of running ability and aerobic capacity is langdon, and perhaps now Grundy and hunter (though Oliver looks like he is an amazing shape - and his physique looks more like 800 metres runner than it had previously). Howes looks a potential great athlete - he has the right physique. But I suspect he has a fair bit of work to do to build his tank to get to even nibblers 2017 level. I thought Rosman might be a show, with his elite running background (though probably too big) Jordon is the other one, he could get fit enough, but he isn't quick enough and will never cover the ground as fast as nibbler (which is key for his role).

Depwnds what you mean bt best. Nibbler is one of our most important players. So for me he is on of our best. A top 10 finish in last year's bluey speaks to that. Of course Oliver is harder to replace in terms of pure abilty. But that is because Oliver is one of the best mids of the modern era. But Oliver is easier to replace in terms of role than nibbler. We have any number of players who could replace his midfield minutes - either collectively or one player. As I noted, there isn't one player in the twos who could adequately cover nibbler's role. They would likely have to shuffle some roles within the team to cover what nibbler brings.

AFL 2023 — each team's predicted finish and their key question for the season

Great post. And we saw in the Saints and Tigers praccy matches how significant, for many of the reasons you note above, hunter's recruitment will be.