binman

Spargo and Chandler plsy different roles.. I suspect spargo comes in for Woey, who had been playing spargo's role.

Indeed. There's no mystery why they promote multis to the exclusion of almost every other bet type. And bet with mates? Please. Another way to throw money at em

Some random reflections of this terrific data: The ratings reflect what the eyes said - a super high quality game, with both teams playing out of their skin The tigers are outsiders against the dogs at Marvel, but that ratings suggests they should almost go in as favs given the dogs gave up a half time 5 goal lead in must win game (albeit against team, the giants, who i really rate) - i happened to just listen to the catch up of Hoyne from Champion Data on (i really like his analysis - in large part because i agree with most of it!) and he made the point it is not who you play, its how you play Whilst the tigers played great, their bets players fell in a hole in the last q - and for me it is further evidence of how critical fitness is and the relationship between player ratings and fitness (in the sense that i'm sure players like Soldo and Dusty's ratings would have fallen off cliff in the last because they barely touched it and they looked completely gassed Related to the above point the high ratings in this game tracks with the graph you put up DD with the player ratings mirroring our loading phases in 2021, 2022 and again this year (ie great rounds 1-9, poor middle of the season, on the rise as we approach finals) I'm surprised at how low Langer's ratings for this game Nibbler (who by the by is our 13th highest ranked player, which might surprise many) keeps on keeping on I love this data - thanks so much for going to the effort of posting it (same goes for Wheelo and Demon Dynasty)

Good question, not sure of the answer, but i'm pretty sure they call it Mariah. Or perhaps if it's bending down to give us a rainbow, everyone knows it's Windy.

Objective update on the probability of us winning our last four games Prior to the Crows game, based on the bookies odds for that game and the Tigers game and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games (because the bookies only field markets for the next two upcoming games), the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games was a tick over: 9-1. After the Crows win, using the same formula, those odds dropped to: 5-1. We have four games to go. The bookies have us at 1.10 to beat the Roos, 1.60 to beat the blues (which by the by i had estimated the price would be 1.70 in my calculations for the odds above) and i'm estimating our price for the Hawks game will 1.40 and the Swans game 1.70. So 1.10 x 1.60 x 1.40 x 1.70 = 4.188. That translates, after our win over the tiges, the odd of us winning out final four games as aprox: 3-1. I said prior to the Crows and Tigers games i thought we would go unbeaten for the remainder of the season. And, unsurprisingly i still think we will. There's actually no market for the bet (ie dees to win its last four games), but if there was i wouldn't take 3-1. Why? Because I think 3-1 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning our final four games and therefore there is no value. 3-1 seems pretty short. But what's important to remember is that at those odds the probability of us winning our final four games is 25%. So 75% chance of not winning our final four games.

So do I. I would prefer he was playing. For one thing is he is past it, his recent slight up tick in form notwithstanding. For another, carrying a player who can't cover territory or is as slow as buddy now is, puts them behind the 8 ball because the clicks have to covered by the rest of the team. And May matches up perfectly on buddy as evidenced by the fact he has given him a complete bath every time he has played on him since may came to the dees. I'd have to look it up, but I doubt buddy has kicked mutiple goals against the dees more than two or three times in the last seven years.

My take too.

No cherry ripe all the time. Cherry ripe on Grand Final day.

And I'd add that there are mistakes and there are mistakes. Giving a free away for say having too many rotations is a mistake. As in the roos example from earlier in the year, it might cost a team a game. Bur something I haven't seen much comment on is the potential scenario of Allir copping another head knock when he went back on. He was all at sea for the rest of that game, and there was a huge risk of another head knock because he wasn't switched on i would have thought. So the mistake might have resulted in serious injury, or perhaps even forced retirement for Allir, as had just occurred for max lynch.

I saw this reported yesterday - and watched the clips of his speech to his teammates Could not have been a more timely, and frankly tragic, reminder of what is at stake here in terms the duty of care Port owes its players and the discussion as to whether Port breached that duty of care. A young bloke, who grew up dreaming of Brownlow's and flags has had those dreams shattered. In 20 years time, when Max is in his mid forties, not even Hawks fans will remember him. Hopefully his brave decision to retire now means he wont be still suffering in some way from the impact of his concussion, but there ain't no guarantees that will be the case. On that front, the AFL, the footy community and footy fans face a looming philosophical inflection point. In Max's Lynch's case he wisely accepted the medical advice and has decided to retire. What happens when a player rejects that advice and decides they want to play on? Paddy McCartin for example. Some might argue that every individual has that right. But should the AFL and/or clubs take that choice out of their hands? Where does the responsibility to protect an individual's health lie? As an employer, the AFL and clubs have a responsibility for the health and well being of its employees and for ensuring a safe working environment. But no matter what the AFL does moving forward to minimise and mitigate the risks of concussion there will always be players getting concussed.

My avatar is a picture of me. As is the caricature. But i am not Garry Baker.

Agree on Harmes before Woey, but not JJ before woey

Agree on outs and the players to come in. Also agree on Tomo. Live I didn't think he had a great game, but when i looked at his numbers my assessment of his game certainly took a dive. Tomo only had 7 disposals - which for a lock down defender isn't too much of a concern in of itself. But he had five clangers (defined as an error made by a player resulting in a negative result for his side) and of his 7 disposals, 4 were turnovers.

Teams have been exploiting it against the Pies. It's why, for such a good team - and very much unlike us - they so infrequently blow other teams away. And also why they have been behind at 3 quarter time in 17 of their last 32 games. My take is the vulnerability has not been exploited (or discussed much - until now) more often for three main, interrelated, reasons. The first is they have been winning - an incredible record in home and away games in the in the last season and a half. Winning papers over a lot of cracks - as many DL posters noted about the dees in the first half of 2022 . Second, their last quarter record has been phenomenal. But again that ability to come from behind papers over a lot of cracks. On that point, a factor in their last quarter record is their deserved psychological edge they have in such situations - they expect to run over teams, and the oppo (and fans and their fan boys in the commentary box) do too. But if that bubble is burst they will lose that edge. They couldn't run us down and they couldn't run the blues down. They ran Port down, but maybe the comp is now looking at Port and wondering if they are that good after all. And third, their style of play, and ability to run over teams in the last, is built on phenomenal fitness and running power relative to the opposition. We saw on Sunday the advantage such relative fitness has when we completely ran the tigers into the ground - they just could not go with us. On SEN, Sanderson has been talking about the Pies fitness advantage all season (and the Crows too for that matter) and has all but said it makes them unbeatable. I have heard him 2-3 times compare their relative fitness and running power advantage to ours in 2021 (which he rightly says is why we dominated the finals series that year). But what's weird about that analysis is the implication the Pies will maintain that relative advantage to the end of the season - particularly the implication we won't close the gap. As we are starting to see, it's a complete nonsense. I think they have more elite aerobic runners. And across the board they are so quick over the ground. It's def their point of difference. And drives a really exciting brand of footy that everyone loves. We have fewer such aerobic runners (Nibbler, Spargo, Hunter and langers) but more elite power athletes (Tracc, Oliver, Viney, Salem, Sparrow). I would argue we have a better balance of athlete types for finals, but leaving that discussion aside, there is no way (assuming we have got our program right and don't have injuries) that come finals, the Pies will have a fitness edge over us - and increasingly perhaps not such an edge over other teams either (and it remains to be see if the Pies have got their fitness program right). Take that advantage away and the Pies come back to the pack.

It's not the swarm that makes them vulnerable. We swarm too - it is at the heart of the method we adapted from the tigers (I dislike hardwick, but he deserves huge credit for changing how the game is played) - pressure and get numbers to the contest, win the ball and sweep forward in a rugby like line and have players run hard to get ahead of the ball to create options. The pies perhaps commit more numbers in that swarm, but what makes the pies vulnerable is the risks they take and their defensive system. They expose themselves to turnover because they flick it around trying to get the ball to the outside and when they get it outside take on high risk kicks - often into the corridor. Looks great when it works, but place the kicker under enough pressure and/or get numbers into the corridor and they turn it over, and often in very dangerous spots (and their handballs to feed it out can be turned over too). But it is the second vulnerability, very much interconnected with the first, that really hurts them. Their defensive lines pushes so high on transition, and in one flat line (ie no goal keeper) that when they turn the ball over they are at massive risks of goals out the back on the counter. That is all true of all teams using that swarm method, but our defensive sytem protects us on turnover. We have been experimenting with a similar approach to thstvof the pies in the last 3 games, which is a big reason why we have scored so much - but also why we have leaked so many goals. The dusty goal where he was left alone in the goal square was the perfect example. We rarely give up such goals. I'm sure we will revert back to something more like our normal defensive system come finals, including greater use of tempo (we saw a bit of borh in the second half against the tigers) - but the new normal will retain elements of the method we are experimenting with atm. We can play both styles. And a hybrid. Hard to see how pies can adjust theirs so late in the season given they havent experimented in games with alternative methods.

No. Never. Under no circumstances.

I guess I shouldn't say the hawks are in good shape injury wise and Rampe and McInerney are doubtful for round 24

The Kangaroos expect Goater to be cleared to play in Sunday's clash with the Demons, despite being subbed off last week. Bonar, Hall and Perez could all return at some level, but will also need to undergo fitness tests. The club is still awaiting more information before clearing Coleman-Jones after a second concussion of the season. Shiels and Wardlaw are still at least a week away. Charlie Lazzaro (back) and Tom Powell (knee) made their comebacks through the VFL last weekend.

On the injury front, the blues are pretty hard hit. In terms of our game against them, best 22 blues plsyers who are def out are Cerra, McKay and Kennedy. And Walsh is listed as one to two weeks, so in doubt. Big outs - particularly if Walsh doesn't get up as their midfield is their key strength and their game is based around winning stoppages. No Cerra and Walsh, and hopefully clarry coming back in, gives us a big edge in the middle.

It was actually quite swirly at the g

And it was a tough, close game too - which won't help their cause.

I totally get the don't disrespect the oppo argument as think it is a very valid one. And I would probably not advocate managing plsyers earlier in the season. But playing the roos is a unique opportunity in the sense that for all the any club can win one the day, that does not really apply in this scenario because they are historically bad and the gap between where we at right now and them is huge. We have finals in 5 weeks. Hard to see us cruising, and so f ir helps us in any way in our tilt for a flag then the I think the potential benefits out weigh the risks. We didn't have this opportunity last year. The cats did.

Fair points. I guess that comes down to communication and expectation management.

Personally, i'm in the managing players camp. As Demon Dynasty notes, any best 22 player managed won't be doing any resting. Like Smith doing laps after the Tigers game, they will still have to the ks they would have otherwise done in the match. But the advantage is they don't have to be on and off a plane, or stay overnight in a hotel. And the risk of injury is much, much lower (ie no risk of impact injury). And perhaps even more importantly they don't have to worry about post match recovery (eg from bumps, bruises and soreness) interfering with their prep and program heading into the challenging - and likely super critical (re chances of top 20 - Blues game. They also get a chance to freshen up mentally - which might benefit some players. Get the load without the risk. There is another important element too i reckon - its give the club the opportunity to reward players at Casey for good form and/or give some young player some exposure at AFL level. And given any player coming in will have a specific role in the system, they get chance to practice that role at AFL level, (which might useful in the even we cop some some injuries ahead of finals) and that mitigates some of the downside of new players coming in And potentially a couple of fresh, motivated players who want to impress might actually help us put the Roos to the sword.

Much like life.