binman

I did actually. I really like sando, and was a pretty good segment this week - particularly his analysis of where the Pies are at. But on that analysis about the Pies, there was a couple of strange omissions i thought. Sanderson has, all season (rightly too I might add) highlighted how critical the Pies fitness is to their game plan. And he has made the point on multiple occasions that they are 'by far' the fittest team in the comp and it is the key reason why he believes they are (were?)so far ahead of every other team - even comparing their advantage to ours in 2021 (he said that is why were so dominant ie we so much fitter than every other team - stronger for longer was his description of us in 2021 and the pies this year). Weird then that he didn't mention fitness at all in his analysis of why the Pies have come back to the filed, particularly becuase they def looked fatigued against the Hawks. And it was made weirder still by the fact that on last week's show someone texted in with a question for him about 'pre finals loading' and rather than answer it Whately said they would hold it over till this week. Sando said it's a great question and he would prepare something. On his analysis of the dees v blues game, i thought the exact same thing as you DFAS. In fact i decided i would text in and say as much (something i rarely do). I sent the following text directly after the segment, so with about an hour of Whately's show - so plenty of time to read it out. He didn't (yes it's long, no surprises there from me, but he often reads out much longer texts): Binman from Altona. G'day Gerard. I look forward to sando's slot every week. Fantasic analysis and i always learn something new. But with all due respect to sando, i think he got the dees v blues game wrong in terms of two distinct game styles. In a nutshell, i think the blues have in fact modelled their game plan on the Melbourne game plan. Sando's point about Melbourne playing fast flowing transition football of late is correct, but as Goodwin has said many times this season the Demon DNA is forward half territory football, defence, and win the contest. Just like Voss has implemented at Carlton. Makes sense because the tiger's template model has won every flag since 2017, bar 2018 with the Eagles being an outlier. Another analyst i really enjoy on SEN is Daniel Hoyne. He is fantastic and i am much persuaded by his opinion that the reason for the blues dramatic turn around has not been their improvement in the stoppages and contest, but rather bringing in players like Cunningham and Cottrell to play the high half forward role (that Spargo and Neale-Bullen play at Melbourne) to fix their issues with transitioning the ball and stopping the oppo doing the same. But in terms of the contest, winning stopes and clearances, the demons will be very hard to beat on that front. In their last four matches' Melbourne are averaging north of 50 points from stoppages, which is very high. The blues are indeed in very good form, but so are Melbourne. I can't see the Blues beating the demons in the contest OR on transition. Melbourne will be too strong i think.

Agree. But I've always tgought it would be brilliant to get into the fisherman's bend area at the start of it's development phase. Thst said, its shocking the lack of action on that front. And caulfield, which of course has all the amenities and infrastructure (including a brilliantly located train station and mutiple bus routes) in the surrounding area, is perfectly located in terms of proximity to the traditional fan base for the dees and the Casey area (where we have a huge sunk cost). A no brainer really. Fingers crossed.

That's fair enough to hold that view, if that's how you feel, that's how you feel. Obviously, i have made it abundantly clear i hold a different view and do care what is said about my club in the media. And becuase this is football forum i choose to post about it. Which is surely ok too is it not? As many posters who share your perspective on this topic have, quite reasonably, pointed out to me, if it annoys me so much stop reading, watching or listening to the media. Respectfully, i think that advice also applies to the posters, such as yourself, who, ironically, feel the need to constantly note their frustration about posters expressing their frustration with the media. I'm going to continue to post my frustration with the media whenever i feel like it. If my posts on the topic bother you, don't read them or simply put me on ignore.

It won't be on the screen once the game starts. The only risk of an overlap is if it goes to penalties (which given how many full time draws there has been in this world cup - 13 I think - there is a fair chance it will).

Sheeple everywhere hey? This level of [censored] poor trolling is soooo 2004. Up your game.

It's going to be a funny experience cheering on the tillies with blues fans and collectively celebrating their awesomeness (on a related note, there is still time for the AFL to realize the complete folly of sending AFLW teams to play on sub standard round all round the country - and don't get me started on only 10 rounds). And then at exactly 7:30 realizing they are bunch of clueless bogans!

Juts heard, it's going to happen. Which is great. I had planned to go to Fed square, but it will be impossible to get into it i reckon (unless you get there at 12pm). And now i can just go the G, top of the Ponsford, get a good GA seat and watch the tillies roll the les bleus . And then watch the dees roll the blues. Sporting gold.

He has a really peculiar speech pattern where he finishes sentences dropping a tone making him sound apologetic (if that makes sense). Not great for any job involving speaking to an audience. But he has clearly been coached to address it, which is great, and i have been enjoying listening to him attempt to action his 'learnings'.

I think the idea is to have two ovals. One will be the exact dimensions of the MCG. The other can be adjusted as needed to simulate the sub standard, non elite ground the MFC might have to play on: Kardinia Park with it's non existent wings and 50 metre arcs that meet in the centre circle Boggy Tassie grounds with added wind turbine for verisimilitude Tiny, ammo standards grounds to simulate Cairns and Darwin with added ground water and humidifier for verisimilitude See above for the Gabba Beautiful ground with a branch from a gum tree over hanging the boundary line to simulate the Alice with added flood water and lifting turf to replicate once in century flood events A postage stamp ground to simulate Docklands with added capacity to dim the light towers as required to replicate the terrible lighting at a ground remarkably built in the last 30 years (they have contingency plan if finance becomes an issue - train at dusk and don't turn the lights on at all) The exact dimensions of Optus oval - just for feel good vibes when needed No stone unturned.

They're our snow bunnies

I just read the what they are saying at lygon st thread, and one of the quoted posts said the dees has won the last 8 games against the blues. Is that right?

Ignorant comment from blues fans stuck in their glory days back in the late 70s The bogan, blue brigade might, but we don't don't ski in july, August or September. Last time I checked there's no powder in Japan, Whistler or Aspen then. No, we ski in January or February. But they're right about moving our holidays back. For the last couple of years, my fam's annual sojourn to the Maldives has been in August. Long may the tradition continue.

A positive from how we started against the blues is we still got points and % boost - whilst still getting the obvious 'feedback' (mcrae is soooo next level)- if we start like that against the blues....

99 problems Clayton Oliver coming back in ain't one. Are these dudes for real?

So dramatic. Like a football telanova. Last chance saloon is on my bingo card.

I'm guessing smith sub and hibbo into the starting 22. Wet night, don't need 3 talls down back given McKay is out. Hibbo can crack in. Smithy injected forward or back late in the third, depending on where needed.

Does your dog eat chips?

Discarded ruckman? Where did they find him? Behind the couch?

Put in on the dees to beat the blues. And remember, gamble responsibly.

The list was his top 5 coaches this season. I can't remember exactly his criteria, it was a bit rubbery, but included overcoming injury and list strength, As i noted i get why he would leave out Goodwin - creates some angst and some click worthy content. And for what it's worth I'd have Mcrae top too - he has changed the way the game is played, something normally only premiership winning coaches do (eg Hardwick - and i would argue Goody too) And i would have Voss and Kingsley in my top 5 as well. I wouldn't have Mitchell in my top 5, but i see where he is coming from because i love that Mitchell is trying to develop a game plan that is the benchmark in 5 years time not following the current trend (Mitchell's words). And as Hodge said he took very gutsy gamble cleaning out his team of so many experienced players like Gunston. But leaving Hodge's opinion aside, i really believe that as a broad generalization, Goody doesn't get the respect or credit he deserves, even on this forum. Leaving aside previous years, goody has been brilliant this season: Clear in his messaging (eg it's all about peaking in September, what the dees DNA and game looks like etc) His tactical nous (eg Goody showed the competition how to beat the Pies, not Voss or Mitchell) The changes he has implemented from their post 2022 review (eg player management, less rigid with roles) Player management (eg bringing in Woey to get a taste of AFL footy), Courage (eg dropping Grundy) His preparedness to experiment (eg Petty forward) His push back on silly media narratives (eg the baloney about our 'scoring and connection issues' = by the by, the Pies haven't scored more than 100 points since round 18) The third top 4 finish in three years (no mean feat) And the way it now feels like we have multiple ways we can win, with different methods (eg fast, slow, all about attack, take away oppo strengths etc etc) The value of this approach is now becoming very clear, with the Pies having been worked out to an extent (as we were last year), but having no time to practice i game any significant game plan adjustments Goody has been simply fantastic this season. I understand he won't get the respect and credit he deserves from the media (unless of course we win the flag). But i live in hope he gets the respect and credit he deserves on Demonland. Onya goody

Converting the decimal odds to implied probability. For example, an even money bet is expressed as 2.00 in decimal format (which is what is used in Oz accross by all bookies now. Before we moved to using decimal odds, even money was expressed as 1/1 ie bet one dollar, win and win one dollar. Double your money). An even money bet is 50 50. So 50% probability. Not sure about not ideal, but 28.8% probability of winning our final 3 games indicates will be no easy fea. Expressed another way, we have 72.2% probability of losing one of our last three games. Which is why anyone predicting we will lose one of last 3 games is more likely to be proven correct. We will win our last 3 games, in my opinion. But by the very same logic, the bookies have us at 3.75 to win the flag. I think we should be 3.50 (the pies current odds). And will be if we beat the blues (if we beat the blues, the dees bandwagon - empty 2 weeks ago - will be at capacity). So, aprox the exact same probability of us winning our final 3 games. So we have nearly a 30% chance of winning the flag! We'll all take that every day of the week!

It is amazing. I know you are talking forwards, but to that list we can add clarry, a generational talent, and top 5 in the AFL, for half a season. Petty for half a season. Salem for half a season. And Maxy for 3 games. I heard hodge today on sen. He gave his top five coaches in the afl, using a formula of his own creation (including over coming having key players out injured). His top 5? 1. Mcrae (he mentioned mcstay as a key out) 2. Kingsley 3. Hinkley 4. Mitchell 5. Voss Whateley, who said a couple of times if you dont like the list make your own, said his list had the same names. I get it, controversy creates clicks and that's the purpose of such lists. But c'mon.

Self employed.

Gives me flashbacks to my days desperately trying to find a decent rental to live in

Objective update on the probability of us winning our last three games We have three games to go. The bookies have us at: 1.72 to beat the blues (by the by, prior to our crows win i estimated the price would be 1.70, so pretty close to spot on. What's interesting about the 1.72 price is prior to the last round the bookies had us at 1.60 to win. Why the drift? Punters might have assessed Petty out as a big factor. I don't, or at least not a determinative factor, and as noted in another post i think the price should be 1.65 for this match) 1.21 to beat the Hawks (my estimate last week was 1.40, which i still think is about right, so 1.21 is well unders. Even if we win this week, i very much doubt we will start 1.21) And I'm estimating our price for the Swans game will be 1.70 (which is probably a touch generous. 1.60 is probably more realistic. if we win our next two it may even be as short as 1.50) So 1.72 x 1.21 x 1.70 = 3.53 That translates, after our win over the roos, to the implied probability of us winning our final three games as aprox: 28.6% If we win this week, the implied probability of us wining our our final two games (and therefore our final 8 games) will be aprox: 50% (ie 2.00 or even money in the old)