binman

Act two of the season Act two of the season is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 16. And as important as the first two months are in terms of laying our fitness foundation, you could argue this period is almost as important in terms of giving the contenders the best chance of winning a flag. As I noted in the Act one of the season post, Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season games only provide 70% of the capacity to maintain aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build aerobic capacity. And said that to be in optimal shape come finals they need to use the bye period to do a heavy block of aerobic and power conditioning, but also give players time off to physically and mentally recharge. So, lots to juggle and consider. He didn’t mention fatigue in this context but said an impact of this increased training load is a greater risk of injury in games. Logic suggests extra running and weights sessions will also cause fatigue (as is the case in the preseason), which will impact our performance in games (in much the same way accumulative fatigue does). I hesitate to call this a loading phase because it became so emotive on DL last year and in 2021 and 2022. And to be perfectly honest I can’t be bothered relitigating the debate (that said, to be clear, i have never suggested fatigue is an excuse for poor performance, but rather a factor, a reason - one of many factors that can impact performance, but a very important one and one that is almost uniformly overlooked in the media). But for anyone reading this who has not participated in the great loading debate, Selwyn Griffith explains the process here (and there are hundreds of posts on the topic last year and in 2021): 15:45 mins to 19:30: Selwyn discusses the full year’s training program 19:30 to 21:48: Selwyn discusses the impact of accumulative fatigue, and the phase where they are increasing loads etc From his comments there is no question they do a block of heavy training at this point in the season. The question is how long it goes for. He doesn’t directly answer that question, though references the round 12-15 period. Which makes sense given the goal for the real contenders is to be cherry ripe in mid-September (round 16 is usually early July). My take from these comments, and pretty extensive research in previous years, is that it is about a three-week period they go extra hard. There's no question it had a significant impact on our performance in a block of aprox 3-4 rounds in the last two seasons because of the related fatigue (ie they do additional running and power sessions on top of recovering from games). In 2021, in round 13 we got rolled by the then lowly Pies in a listless performance (we scored 63 points), had our bye, only beat the lowly bombers by 11 points in another scrappy performance (scoring 68 points), got rolled by the Giants on the G, only managing 55 points on a dry day, went to Port and played great to win (scoring 86 points) but then drew with Hawks (79 points) and got beaten in round 19 by the dogs, scoring only 65 points. From that point we didn’t lose another game for the season, averaging aprox 108 points a game, inclusive of our three finals wins. Last season, we lost in rounds 11, 12 and 13, only breaking 60 points once when the Swans beat us 76-61. Then after our bye we scored 16.21 117 and poleaxed the Lions by 61 points in round 15. The pattern has started to repeat itself so far this year, with a loss to Freo in round 11 and a scrappy, low quality match against the blues (but thankfully a win). By the by, on the blues game, if you are someone who thinks hibbo is best 22 (as I am), then the logical extension of him being managed is that they did not give the team the best chance of winning this game. This is what I mean by prioritising winning the war not the battles, which Goody has touched on multiple times when he talks about the goal being in our best shape and playing our best footy come finals. Again, this is not a scenario limited to Melbourne. Burgess took the tigers' fitness template, added his philosophy and then others have followed – most notably Geelong last year. Given how running based the Pies are, they are almost certainly following a similar regime. Why? Because they can’t win a flag if they are not as fit as they were in the first third of the season come grand final day – or as fit as us for that matter (it’s worth nothing Sanderson has said a number of times the Pies are the fittest side atm by some margin – hard to prove, but their ability to run out games is used as the key evidence. We have lost only two final quarters for the year, so by that logic we must be pretty fit too). As previously noted, I make a distinction between flag contenders and non-contenders. I assume non contenders would still follow a similar training program, but their focus is on making finals, not winning a flag. So they might not go quite as hard around the bye as they can less afford to lose games because of fatigue. And they need to peak at the start of September, not the end. You don’t need to be sport scientist to see the impact of fatigue on performance. Just watch any game in the last two rounds and you can clearly see its impact. In round 11, top 8 teams in the Lions, Dees, Dogs, Cats and Saints all lost to teams well below them on the ladder and the pies gave up six last quarter goals to the roos to only win by 6 goals after leading by nearly 10 goals. There have been less anomalous results in round 12, but the quality of the games and skill execution was uniformly very poor. And the dogs and Crows (where Burgess now works) both got out to big leads before completely running out of gas and getting easily rolled. Leaving aside how the games looked, there are tonnes of AFL wide metrics that evidence the impact of accumative faitgue on perfomance. So, the timing of the heavy training block will have a big impact on which games we are most impacted by fatigue in, and which games we might therefore be at risk of losing going in as favourite. The big question then is when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? There are some variables that are worth factoring in when considering that question: Our training program has changed quite a bit this year, and it appears we are following the Cats lead in terms of managing players, using more players through the middle, using more players full stop, and key players spending more time on the bench than in 2021 and 2022 There is an extra round this year Selwyn talked about how tough the first half of our season was in terms of the challenges of travel combined with multiple short breaks between games For the second year in a row, we essentially don't get a bye because we only have 9 days between the pies game and our post bye game (by way of comparison, most other teams get a full two-week break, meaning players can get away from the club and there is still time for a good block of heavy training without worrying too much about the impact on the post bye match) Griffith noted these factors made planning when to do additional blocks of training a real challenge – and I wonder if the timing of breaks means they have to split the 3-week block of heavy training into smaller blocks of say 7-9 days But he also noted that post bye, it is a better fixture in terms of travel and breaks between the games It is also an easier run home than last year, which as was the case for the Cats last year, means greater opportunity to manage players (if the cats had as many must win, finals like, high pressure games as us in the last 5 or 6 games of last season they would not have had the luxury of managing players) So, back to the key question - when does the heavy training block commence for us this year? Short answer is I don’t know. But my best guess is that it started after the Freo game, which just about marries up with the aprox rounds 12-15 window SG talked about. I fully admit this guess is influenced by the hope that we plan to be in the best possible shape for the Kings' birthday game, which we weren’t last season. But I think this year the stakes, and timing, are different. This is one battle that will help us win the war. And it is also one of the most eagerly anticipated game in years. I'm hoping we want to do everything we can to win (like resting Hibbo against the blues). That said, even factoring in yet another six-day break, I think the blues game provided pretty good evidence of a team that was fatigued beyond accumulative fatigue – ie they went hard on the track in the lead up. For the first time all season we played tempo footy and looked to control the momentum and speed of the game just as we so often did in 2021 and in the first half of 2022. Great way to conserve energy. And it was by far our lowest pressure ratings for the season, and we went into cruise mode in the last q (keeping in mind 180 is considered league average and 200 elite pressure – dees in first column): Q1: 179 - 195 Q2: 172 - 161 Q3: 179 - 166 Q4: 148 - 153 Tot: 170 - 170 So, we train hard in the lead up to the blues and go hard for the first half of this week? And then taper into the Kings Birthday game. We have our bye, players have a 3 or 4 day break and then go hard again in the lead up to the Cats game – which of course we want to win but are prepared to risk losing because of fatigue (if I’m right we will see a the same sort of scrappy, low quality game as we did at aprox the same time as our game against the cats at taxpayer park last season). We then have a nine day break ahead of our round 16 Alice Spring game against the Giants, so we do our last heavy training block (resulting in another scrappy game) to get our aerobic and power closer to the optimal level as we roll into the third act of the season, rounds 16 to 24.

The Malachi crunch

All excellent points. And i agree with them. I'm not suggesting there should be media pile on the umpires. The media should be piling on the AFL. I don't blame the umpires for being poor collectively. I blame the AFL. Umpires are a vital element of the game and their performance has a huge impact on how games play out. Each game should have at least one (but ideally three) full time professional umpire (and keep the current set up for boundary and goal umpires). These umpires should have a strong base salary and the ability to earn significant bonuses based on their performance. Provide a legitimate pathway for young umpires to progress through the ranks to be professional umpires at the elite level. Or young guns who are terrific players but won’t make the grade but want to get involved in AFL football. Give them a range of other responsibilities (because they are full time professionals) other than match day and training – umpire AFLW finals, mentoring AFLW and VFL umpires, community outreach to local clubs and local league umpires etc etc. SB, you are 100% right, it is an incredibly hard game to umpire full of grey areas and subjectivity. Invest time and resources time to help them deal with these challenges. Enhance their decision making skills under pressure and ability to ignore the crowd. Have them work in teams so they build synergy. All this is possible if they are full time professional. Or at least some are. Because I have had this debate for years and years, I have heard all the arguments about why the current model of well-paid amateurs works. None stack up for mine. The most common argument aginst professional umpires is that it is prohibitively expensive. Please – it is a multibillion dollar industry and we have accountants and physiotherapists making decisions that can change the fortune of a club. Think of Grand Final day. The very best umpires get selected and almost always do a great job. We know that because we don’t notice them. Every AFL game should be like that. The stakes are high. How long ago was it that Hawkins was awarded a goal in a grand final that actually hit the post? Maybe the Cats won because of that mistake? Well, apparently this was way, way too big a risk and hang the expense we have to make sure a grand final can never be decided by a ‘howler’ again. Here we are some 15 years later and despite the millions spent on the VAR system and the non officating umpre, they still haven’t got the system right. But few argue we don't need such a system. Because apparently getting scores right is critical. Meanwhile we are seemingly ok with 15 howlers a round and multiple games a year where the result is unduly influenced by sub par umpiring performances because the AFL has decided not to invest the resources required to make the standard of umpiring elite for a supposedly elite competition. The AFL tamp down criticism of individual umpiring performances - and fair enough too. But it is disingenuous because the implication is any criticism of the standard of umpiring is an attack on umpires themselves - which i agree is not ok. But the brilliant part of the strategy is there is no questioning of the AFL and its clear responsibility to ensure the game is officiated to the highest possible standards. And in every other part of the game striving to achieve the highest standard involves increased professionalism. But apparently not for one of the most critical elements - umpiring. And I'd go further. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but the AFL have long run on the theory that dominating media attention helps crowd out other sports. The any news is good news principle. Every single year there is a new rules related controversy and a slew of 'interpretation' changes in season. Who is impacted most by this? Who cop it the most? The umpires, amateurs all. Leaving aside whether this is deliberate, if the AFL is so concerned about the umpires how about sorting out the rules of the game and taking out as much subjectivity and grey areas as possible and stop making interpretation changes in season so it is not so damn difficult to do the job.

I agree with all of those points. But I support a red card, in very clearly defined scenarios (which by their nature are relatively rare), when it results in the opposition losing a player. That hit happened near the end of the second quarter. The kid was playing well. And then knocked out, and can't come back on. Dog act. They lost hurn and West and with hewiit off, were down to two on the bench for a big chunk of that game. Losing hewiit was a huge disadvantage for the Eagles. Unlikely to have been a difference between winning and losing, but there's plenty of examples where it has. And I'm persuaded by the argument, what if that happened 5 minutes in to a grand final - let's say de Goey knocks tracc out cold. Play on?

I look at it often. Brilliant site. Very user friendly. Partic how I use it, which is predominantly to zero in on our key stats and also comparing teams accross mutiple data points. For stats, I now only use wheelo and footy wire. And i always look at the timeline function in the match area on the afl app as they post some really intersting, and often very obscure (eg one effective disposal inside 50 in the second q against freo) champion data stats.

But the accuracy is also related to speed of ball movement and one, preparedness to take risks and two, execute. Faster ball movement creates free options inside 50 in good spots and more out the back, running into open goal type goals. And executing riskier kicks means more use of the corridor and therefore better looks at goal. This is one of the reasons that it frustrates me the media doesn't factor in fitness levels and fatigue - except in rhe most superficial way - into their analysis. I mean it is fundamental. And is the key factor in so many games, both in terms of the outcome but also the quality of the game in terms of skill execution. They use phrased like x team is just not on today instead. I have made reaaly good money this year, and the previous two seasons, at this time of year, factoring fatigue and the resulting drop off into my footy betting. For example last night I absolutely slammed the suns because one, their game plan is so contest to contest based it is less impacted by fatigue (because it isnt as reliant as say the pies on hitting targets on transition- they smash it forward and hope to win the next contest). And two, because they were super smart and went up to darwin a week before the dogs game and stayed up there to acclimatise. Crows started well, but could not handle the humidity and blew up

Yep. I assume goal kicking accuracy is included in the DE ratings. And logic suggests accuracy from set shots is very much impacted by fatigue. You see the impact in games at the end qs, or after long sprints, when a player is gassed and has a set shot. Chandlers third point, was a good example. Add accumulative fatigue to the mix and inaccuracy is inevitable. I think we have average technique accross the board, and again logic suggests fatigue would have more an impact on our DE than say the pies, who are on average better kicks. That said, sidebottom out is huge for them, because they really rely on their 4 elite kicks- daicos x 2, peddles and sidebottom - to hit high risk kicks on transition. Lose 25% of elite kicks and their scoring chains will break more often

That's nut wheelo. Love it.

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed. Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50. And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

That is not what he said. At all The relevant part of the interview is 15:45 to 21:48.

Not a chance. Any concussion, mutiple weeks. Let the ball pass him, elected to bump - and flushed his shoulder direct into his cheek. Text book. No concussion and he still gets a minimum one, maybe two.

Gawn

And 2 Thursday night games this year too. So seven stand alone premier night games - and lost 5 of them.

Third week in a row where the umpiring was appalling. But zero push back from the media. It's pathetic. The media are completely compliant with an afl shadow ban of legitimate critique or one of the most critical elements of the game.

He's not the best one on one player at the best of times, and McKay must be close to the best and from memory, all his marks were one out and the ball kicked to his advantag. So, I agree, he worked hard and really stuck to his task. I really admire how he has gone about things since he did his knee. Must be hard going from best 22 lock to a fringe player. Never dropped his head.

Yeah, coz they were so ruthless last week against the second worst team in the afl when they got smashed in the last quarter, giving up 6 goals. And despite winning three more games prior to this match, they still had a lower percentage than us. So ruthless. Is this a bloody pies footy forum or a Demon's one? FMD.

Don't mention the war....

Hypothesis one: the arc of the season The season is an act in four parts for teams who are genuine flag contenders. Act one is the preseason, in particular January and February, through to round 11 or 12. Act two is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 15 Act three is round 15 to the end of the home and way season Act four is finals Everything has to go right in all four acts to win a flag Act one The training block in Jan and February is perhaps the most important element of the whole season, and certainly act one of the season. During this phase they basically put down their fitness foundation for the whole season. Get it wrong and the season is toast. Burgess has been incredibly influential in this space. Critical is not having players miss any sessions, as far is possible, because there is no do over and players never get to optimal fitness if they don't get this base down. Luck plays a part because to do the work and not miss sessions players have to be injury free. We came into that corresponding period last year with a number of players still carrying niggles etc from the 2021 season (which finished very late for us – and the dogs, who never got going at all in 2022). I knew Carlton would struggle this season because they had heaps of players who mised mutiple sessions, including their best mid in Walsh, with injury or recovering from surgery. They started the season well behind the 8 ball and have played catch up since. They are toast. By all accounts we had excellent Jan and Feb, with almost all players completing every session, with the notable exception of salo who was impacted near the end of that block with the thyroid stuff. This gives me great confidence about our chances of going all the way this year. The teams that have got it right in Jan and Feb will be at optimal fitness in round one (unless they have deliberately pushed that window forward, which I suspect the Cats may have). And we were. This is key because our game plan, like that of the Pies, Cats and to lesser extent, Lions (the contenders) is completely dependent on being at optimal fitness levels. And as such the first 4-5 games are the ones to look at to assess our game plan and method (and of the other contenders). If we get things right and enter the finals close to cherry ripe condition our game plan and method, save some tactical and structural tweaks, will look much the same as the first 4-5 games (noting Goody has said a few times this season we are experimenting with different things). As part one of the season progresses, what Selwyn Griffiths call accumulative fatigue increasingly kicks in and our performance suffers – in large part because as noted, to work optimally our game plan requires optimal fitness. But the other factor is fatigue will impact players differently. Logic suggests younger players will be impacted more by fatigue than more seasoned players. And we have seen that with the drop off in performance in the last couple of weeks of Kossi, Bowey, Mcvee, Rivers, Chandler, Spargo and JVR. Given three of those players are defenders, I wonder whether that is a factor in our struggles winning ground ball in D50 – Salem being out for all but 2 games has to be a factor too. Seven young players who are really struggling with fatigue is nearly a third of the starting 22, which also helps explains our subpar performances in the last two games. I also think we are impacted by fatigue more than the other contenders because we have too many poor kicks and fatigue exacerbates poor tehnique. Again, we have seen that in the last two games with heaps of turnovers and missed shots at goal (we had ONE effective kick inside 50 in the second q against Freo!) And of course it is not just Melbourne’s performance that drops off at this point in the season. One only needs to look at the quality of the matches in the last 2 weeks to see that. Even more stark were the results last round – four top 8 sides were beaten by teams outside of the top eight. And the Lions got rolled by the Crows (who were just inside the 8) and looked rubbish (‘they don’t look on’ according to the commentary). The Pies gave up 6 last quarter goals to the lowly Roos to only beat them by 35 points – no way that happens in the first third of the season. Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season the games only provide 70% of the contribution to maintaining aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build it. So, as the season progresses players are fatigued (mentally and physically as Selwyn noted) AND their aerobic capacity drops. And of course then, so does our performance. Which is one reason why it is of little value to look at the last 2 games, or tonight’s game for that matter, as some sort of gauge or litmus test of our chances of one, beating the other contenders, or two winning the flag. Or for that matter to put much stock in any key metrics and/or stats in this period. For me these games feel like old school games in the 80s and 90s. That doesn’t mean these games aren’t important of course. Losing the last 2 means tonight becomes critical because if we lose tonight making top 4 will be that much harder. And there is a psychological element. Pushing past fatigue and getting the win is what the best teams do. I’m not saying Port are one of the best teams, but they were very average against the Tigers, who really should have won that game. But Port won and I have to say I was really impressed they did.

Episode 2. And three. And four. And five. And six

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions. I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go. The elements/topics I want to cover are: How I see the arc of the season The dees 2023 game plan The game plan of the other contenders The fitness program Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. My hypothesis is informed by: comments from Goody, the players and coaches comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters comments by George and Andy on the podcast various bits of publically available data my analysis of the last few seasons my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc my own musings the vibe And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them): Brendan Sanderson, Daniel Hoyne from champion data Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments) Brad Johnson Montagna Gerard Healy Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff) David King (see comment about Buckley) My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including: Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc) The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers) Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

Agree. Much better fit for his strengths, and perhaps more importantly his weaknesses. I suspect his number one kpi tonight will be, if we cant mark a high ball inside 50 it comes to ground. I also suspect they'll use him in the tmac role of getting up the ground to provide a marking option from kicks to half back from deep in our defence and lead up option on the wing.

And they're not playing on each other, so what does it matter if their forwards are taller? We've brought in another tall defender, so tomo can take McKay and may curnow, with Lever third man in.

Perhaps not such a bad thing to be a bit shorter up forward on a potentially slippery night. All 3 forwards are pretty good when the ball hits the deck. And with his leap, Smithy plays taller than 191 I reckon.

Smithy!!!!!!! Love it.

Oath.