binman

Not loading - increased training loads. Or, if that is still too triggering - a heavy block of aerobic and power conditioning And in any case, fatigue is the new concept requiring a trigger warning - loading is so 2022 No exuses!

It was really similar, in the sense that it was near the boundary and Libba just stopped in his tracks - good get. I don't recall his ability to feint, evade and have so much time being highlighted as his assets when drafted, and i dont recall seeing him display those skills that often in the VFL games. I wonder if he is the sort of player that is better the higher level he goes to because the pace of the game is so much faster and suit his natural skills, for example because there's more super high pressure situations where elite evasive skills and instinctive quick thinking is required more often.

1. Shrinkage? - it's not that cold..... 2. An age old question - I'm sure your customised ads are now promoting enhancment pumps and salves

He was not a million miles off being back to his best against the blues. Watching the game live i thought how important he is to our side and how that importance is easy to overlook, in part because he is not partic flashy and as you suggest a lot of his great work is off the ball. The other thing i forget sometimes is how tough he is. Doesn't lose too many one on ones and has good dose of aggro.

Yes. But my gut feeling is that it is more likely it was after the Port game. Either way i think we have set ourselves for the Pies game and will be running on top of the ground. I really hope i'm right.

The clip doesn't show my favorite bit of play from the Judster against the blues. He had the ball right on the boundary line, feinted and everyone around him seemed to just stop, perhaps thinking the ball had gone over the boundary line - which i exactly what i thought had happened watching live. It was weird - normally players with the sort of natural time the judster has is the one who appears to be standing still, but in this instance, it was everyone else who stopped! (I think the bit of play i'm talking about is actually the very first clip of the Judster in that video - and if so, is cut off right before the good bit)

That suspension still makes me furious. Four weeks was ridiculous. By that metric De Goey should go to jail Chandlers suspension last year was equally frustrating.

You don't want to be playing your best footy in June. Grand finals are not won in winter. They are really looking for the bye. You can't expect a young player like Daicos to be up all season. Yes, they lost and their defense was porous, but don't you love how they don't go into their shell and stick to their game plan. I know they lost, but geez don't you love watching them play. I know they lost, but i can't see the dees beating them with Sidebottom and De goey back in the team. Yada Yada Yada

Yep, the weekly contender or pretender litmus test. I'm not sure if you read this, but i posted the following earlier in this thread: Scott basically said the media narrative, and refusal to see the macro picture is a load of hogwash in his post-match presser this week ....... I can't find the clip, but on the Sunday ABC radio footy show, the Lead, they played those comments from Scott and came back and said Scott had 'pierced the fourth wall' and called out the games the footy media play. The comments they played from Scott are 9:28 to 11:41 of this clip: Full post-match, R12: Cats (afl.com.au)

I saw that. And i agree with them. It is really hard to take David King seriously because he seems not to remember anything he has said in previous weeks and constantly contradics himself. (That, and the fact that in his 'rolling ladder' he has Freo (a team he relentlessly bagged last year) in 4th and us outside the top 4. Go figure - given the ladder says we are actually in at the halfway point of the year and Freo are not.) It's a shame because some f the stuff he talks about is terrific, particularly when he is using footage to make a particular point such as the example you note.

Yep, all reasonable points. And i think your conclusion that fatigue is a factor but not to the same extent as my hypothesis suggests is completely reasonable too. Which touches on one of the central planks of my argument - the media would have you believe it is not an issue and so rarely, if ever factor into their analysis of specific matches, meaning many fans don't either. If you accept that fatigue plays a role in performance, the logical next question is how big a role. You and i have come down in different places on that answer, which is great - at least it is being factored into both our analysis of say our performance against the blues. I just love that we are talking about this nuance, not ignoring it. But if someone trying to get their head around our performance against the blues doesn't factor it in (it's an excuse!) it's not possible for them to properly assess the performance (because they are ignoring a key factor) and so are more likely to default to the dees simply are not that good, we will be hammered by a decent side, good teams would have won that game by 6 goals given how poor the blues were etc etc Exhibit A of the above scenario is the half time 'analysis' of the blues game on Fox. I went to the game, was thrilled we won, loved our defensive work, was happy with individual performances and loved our improved work when the ball hit the deck in D50. I also watched the game expecting a low skilled, scrappy game with lots of skill execution errors - because of the impact of accumulative fatigue (and maybe loading). And so, i was not at all surprised that is exactly what i saw - the performance and game met my expectations. And i walked away from the G a happy man knowing we are 8-4 at the halfway point in the season with a terrific percentage and not too many injury concerns. I watched the replay last night. Normally i would skip the half time discussion but happened to listen to it this time. I thought i was living in alternate reality such was the vitriol directed towards the dees. Lyon, Brown, Buckley and Lewis did not mention fatigue once, or factor it in at all (which was weird because even BT pointed out in the call that the players looked like 'they had led in their shoes' and Buckley was a senior AFL coach two years ago). And as result their analysis was just plain wrong. Woeful to be honest. But a dees fan who isn't as obsessive and inside baseball as me might have listened to that half time discussion and come away thinking we are doomed and have no chance of beating the almighty Pies next week, let alone winning a flag.

It does indeed- as I point out in my screed.

Show is tommorow night dee

I'll try again. If you paid an umpire say 120k a year, with bonuses, there would be heaps of young talented people who would see that as legitimate and attractive career pathway and career - particularly given you could umpire into your 40s. I would have as a young fella who would have loved nothing more than to be involved full time in footy but had no chance of doing so by playing. My son would too. I have worked in the community service sector all my adult life and there ain't many jobs paying 120k. So, I disagree you would have to pay them as much as players are paid.

Must have. Will reread.

Really good point. Particularly relevant for players like Chandler, jvr and mcvee who haven’t experienced anything like they will on kings birthday. And I wonder if the dees want to flex and bring the pies down a peg or two.

Preamble: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/ Hypothesis about the arc of the season Act one: https://demonland.com/profile/6059-binman/

I think that is a very reasonable question about the strategic advantage of targeting the King’s Birthday match. I wondered the same thing. I'm hoping it's a target game as much as anything. But the 9 day run in gives me hope they'll use that time to taper.

Well, you wouldn't necessarily get accountants and physiotherapists - except for the nonprofessional roles (realistically three full time professional per game may not be financially viable, so you'd still need the highly skilled amateurs - who by the way i think get paid pretty well for every game they officiate). But accountants and physiotherapists aren't the only people with the skills set to be excellent umpires. My son was pretty handy junior basketballer. But was never going to make it at the elite level. So, he went down the refereeing path and jumped up through the grades pretty quickly. He had a mentor from Basketball Australia, who invest significant resources into this area, who had been a FIBA ref at the Olympics and world championships and really encouraged him to think about the opportunities refereeing provided (international travel, NBL and the big one - professional NBL ref). My son ultimately decided to stop reffing, which was unfortunate as he became an excellent ref, in large part because of the training and pathways BA provided. Anyone who has been at high stakes basketball game at any decent level knows how crazy and intense the pressure is. The best refs thrive in this environment - but only with the right support and training. My son is never going to be an accountant or physiotherapist, but if he stayed the course, he would have become an excellent ref. If there was a path to become full time professional AFL umpire he may well have pursued that option. As would many young people - if you love sport and want to be involved at the highest level why not make umpiring a career?

No we don't. And we have a triangle defense structure with a goalkeeper defender as on of its points, where they have almost flat line defense that pushes up as one - but can be exposed out the back on turnover. But our optimal game plan still heavily relies on wave running and multiple players running ahead of the ball to provide options.

You say excuses, i say factors - potato; potatoe. But don't worry i won't be flogging that particular horse tomorrow night. Much. But if you need some prophylactic pre pod protection, then you can get the full technicolor binman impact of fatigue thesis here

100% agree and i think this is perhaps their biggest vulnerability. In some ways this is similar to the dog's vulnerability in 2021 and 2022 (i think they have addressed it better this year) where they relied on handball chains out from the contest and then in transition. Each handball is link in the chain that is at risk of breaking under pressure. The pies also use handballs to chain out from contests. The difference is they are more looking to get it to one of their elite kicks in space than keeping the handball chains going (which they'll still do if necessary). And then their elite kick takes on high risk, high reward kicks that, when they come off, set up gilt edged scoring opportunities. That kick is a critical part of their method, but even for the best kick super intense pressure make them much harder to make. And for all the, justifiable, talk of the pies' brilliant last quarters, skill and exciting method, the fact remains they went two losses, one win in last year's finals, losing to the Cats and Swans in high pressure games - and turning the ball over in key moments in both games. Sidebottom out is huge i think because he is one of their four truly elite kicks (Daicos x 2, Sidebottom and Pendles). De Goey is huge out because of his power, ability to tun the game and his brilliance at stoppages and in the contest. But he is also an excellent field kick, so that's two better than average kicks out of their side, which will make their high-risk kicking game all the more susceptible to pressure.

Thanks SD. That is not low-quality speculation at all. Very relevant to the discussion. And to be honest its exactly why i started this thread - to have some more nuanced conversations about the game we all love. Your comments are interesting, and touch on something that i find really curious - footy fans have been conditioned by the media to disregard what coaches say (lying is the first language of footy and all that 1980s rubbish) - particularly if they contradict the micro focus and weekly contender or pretender narrative the media love to play each week. Goody has been at pains to point out that everything is about being ready to go come finals. That we are planning for finals success. Why is this point disregarded? An even better example of how the media frames things to prime its audience to believe a particular narrative is the weird repetition the Dees have scoring issues. This has become so accepted that King could say, with all sincerity, on First Crack last night that (paraphrasing) everyone knows the Dees are struggling with scoring, and neither cohost said a peep to push back. Why would they push back? Because it is a complete load of cobblers as evidenced by a pretty significant bit of irrefutable data - up till this round we had scored more points than any team in the competition (the cats have now edged us by 17 points - but despite having won three less games than the supposedly rampant scoring machine in the pies we have still scored more points than them) - a point Goody has also made on multiple occasions. We are at the halfway point in the season. Given the fatcs, how is it possible for the dees have a scoring issues narrative to hold any credence, let alone become the dominant narrative? Scott basically said the media narrative, and refusal to see the macro picture is a load of hogwash in his post-match presser this week. There are plenty of other examples. Yet collectively the media, and therefore footy fans (generalizing) ignore these messages from senior coaches. I can't find the clip, but on the Sunday ABC radio footy show, the Lead, they played those comments from Scott and came back and said Scott had 'pierced the fourth wall' and called out the games the footy media play. The comments they played from Scott are 9:28 to 11:41 of this clip: Full post-match, R12: Cats (afl.com.au)

The VFL is a lot lower intensity than the AFL, so not the same impact physically.

Yes, i guess it could be manipulated. But sacrificing one of your players to force one of theirs off is a massive risk. And the doctors are not going to lie about a players injury status. Again, it would all come down to getting the rules and framework right. Which to be honest is probably the best argument against it - the AFL have woeful track record of getting the rules and framework right