binman
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Everything posted by binman
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That's so unfair. He sometimes posts after 'disappointing' wins over any team outside the top 4 (or even teams on top of the ladder - see the posts about our win over the flu ridden, injury depleted, having an off day, supposedly 'great' pies and how poor it was to let them have a sniff very late). Probably had one drafted and ready to go 10 mins in the last quarter ('can't win a flag if we can't beat a team in 16th convincingly at this stage of the season.....'). Must have been gutted by our late run of goals. Hard, but not impossible ('i suppose you're thrilled by a win over a tired 16th placed team missing their three best players') to turn a five goal win into proof the dees aren't a premiership threat.
Mitchell said in his presser they came in with a plan to deny us the ball, hence the really high uncontested possession and mark numbers in the first. My take is we consciously allowed them to play that way in the first because it suited us - the very last thing we wanted was another brutal, energy sapping encounter as we would have still been recovering from last week's epic. So a bruise free game is exactly what the doctor ordered for us. I think that was tactical error by Mitchell, because their chance to beat us was to come at us early. Which is the approach the Suns took against the blues. Perhaps Mitchell thought that spreading, chipping it around and forcing us to run and cover would gas us the way it did against the Pies (though they were way more brutal in that match - and went faster in terms of going forward). And perhaps he didn't have another option as they were coming off a six day break and their own mini epic. They also lost their best, most physical player in Jai Newcome and a power forward in Lewis. Their drop in uncontested possessions and marks in the second quarter directly correlate with our increased pressure rating (192 - 155). They could not match us in that quarter for pressure - a 37 diff is nuts (I'd be very surprised if we have had a bigger diff, either way, this season), nor in the third when the pressure ratings diff was 21 (still very big). Two quarters in 4th gear (with a gear up our sleeves). That increase in pressure allowed us to play the second and third quaryers and first third of the last quarter on our terms, the dees DNA (as evidenced by CPs, time in forward half, i50s and scores from turnover) And as you say DD translated to much improved territory and intercept outcomes, and eventually scoreboard impact. In the last quarter, once we got a 3 goal margin, we dropped back to third gear and allowed them to go back to their chip it around mode - and we did the same thing too for good measure (which i just loved to see). Our pressure in the last q was 179, but i suspect it was probably only 150 for the last 10 mins (so perhaps 185-190 in the first third of the final quarter). Very smart coaching from Goody from both a tactical and load management perspective.
The nightmare Collywobbles scenario. They Pies play the dees at the G in front of a sold out crowd. They rush Moore and Daicos back. Both struggle and get hit from pillar to post. Will they come up? The dees beat them in a tough, physical encounter (and because the pies don't have premiership winning defensive system). The blues beat GWS week one of finals. The Pies play the Blues at the G in front of a sold out crowd. They select a clearly struggling Moore and Daicos back. Both struggle and get hit from pillar to post. The blues beat them in a tough, physical encounter (and because the pies don't have premiership winning defensive system). And this 'great' pies team is out of the finals in straight sets. Might test Mcrae's famous positivity.
That's right - I have heard Stafford, Yze and some players use the term 'speed forward' for the small forward role that look to apply pressure inside 50 and crumb packs (as well of course getting up and down the ground contributing to all team defence). They use the term 'speed forwards' to differentiate the role from the other distinct forward roles - KPF and HHF. And it's a good term because it captures two of the key attributes the speed forward need - power and acceleration from a standing start and speed over 30 - 40 metres (whereas, as TMac notes the high half forward have to be able to run quickly over 150 meters - striding speed - and do this over and over thru the game - and again as Tmac notes this requires diff, and very specific, athletic attributes and strengths). Tmac explicitly says in the clip i referenced that Spargo and Nibbla are our high half forwards (and may even mention the distinct small forward role). Yze said Laurie came into the side to play the high half forward role (ie not the speed forward role - if laurie wasn't selected, Spargo, who was in the squad, would have almost certainly been picked). Koz, Chandler (and AMW at Casey) are our speed forwards. Using the miers example, at the the cats he is a HHF and stengle is a speed forward. There is of course some cross over - its not like the difference between say defenders and forwards for instance. HHFs still crumb and kick goals and speed forwards still get up and down the ground to help out on all team defence running (but hopefully not so much they they are too gassed to be an effective speed forward).
Did you listen to that clip from Daniel hoyne defining the role? Or the tmac one It's not what I call it old, it's what the coaches, players and industry call it. ANB and Spargo (and now Laurire) all play the high half forward role - as defined by the club, not me. Nibbla might cover more ground, and Spargo/Laurie (like Miers) is more focused on inside 50 kicks, but it is essentially the same role. Maybe it could be argued Chandler also plays that high half forward role, but i think he is a more traditional goal kicking small forward (though of course gets up the ground - like every single player, no matter what role they play) In any case, we are not going to come together on this. I think you are wrong and Vicky versa. Let's move on.
Sorry old, I'm confused. Nibbler plays the high half forward role. As does spargo, when in the team. And yze said 10 mins before the game that Laurie had come into to the team to play the high half forward role. His exact words. So the same role as nibbla and spargo. Are you saying Chandler is also playing the high half forward role (which he sort of has been as as I have noted he has been playing a hybrid role to cover spargo)? And I thought you argued we couldn't bring an additional small forward in, which is where our debate began (ie we didn't need spargo in because we have Chandler - Laurie was spargo). I 100% agree Laurie is in the team at spargo's expense. Not Chandler though.
I actually think we were happy for them to chip it around a bit too. Made for a lower intensity game. Played into our hands a bit as whilst running and covering those kicks is tiring it is not fatiguing in the way lots of tackles, pack marks and contests are. So they didn't exploit how physically sore and fatigued they must have been after the blues game
Ok, but you acknowledge that they are playing different roles though don't you? ie chandler is a small forward and spargo and laurie are playing the distinct high half forward role? I mean as I noted, yze specifically said Laurie would be playing the 'high half forward role'. And that is exactly the role he played. He wasn't a crumbing forward or part of the midfield rotation (the role he played at casey). My understanding was you argued that spargo was surplus to requirements in that we didn't need another small or medium forward. And that if he were to come in, it would be at chandlers expense - and Chandler was the better option (better kick, more disposals, goal kickers and arguably as fit). That's to say it was an either or scenario and you would go with Chandler. I argued Chandler and spargo were not competing for the same spot. And that both would be selected. Well Laurie came in and played spargo's high half forward role. And so as we just saw, there was/is room for another small forward (ANB, Spargo/Laurie, koz, chandler). I was wrong on th player, but right on the role and number of small forwards that can be selected. The question is does spargo win his role back from Laurie. I thought Laurie was good yesterday, but as I suggested it's hard to know how well he went without the gps data. I did wonder a few times how well he was getting to his defensive spots as they picked their way through us fairly easily at times and that is a least partly a function of all team defence being off and is a key job for the hhf (eg say a Laurie can't prevent a switch or a lad up option). I hope, and expect, he'll get another go at the role against the swans.
I thought they would try to actually - do what they did in the second and crack the hawks, then go into tempo control. But they couldn’t quite bring it early doors- unsurprisingly given how brutal last weeks game was. The blues also struggled. The brilliant thing about our run home is the roos and hawks game sere both lower pressure games that the preceding ones meaning we don't have the mutiple back to back high pressure, taxing games the blues and pies have had to push thru. Even if the Swans game is full on pressure, which it might be but perhaps less than if they were still fighting for 8th and or we were fighting for a top 4 finish, we then have the pre final bye to freshen up. So from the tough run of lions, creos, yigers hames we went roos (second half low pressure), blues (brutal) , hawks (relativy low pressure), swans (high pressure?) then bye. If we play the pies they will be coming off the bye too, but geez they'll need it. Hopefully the bombers will be stung into action and at least try and apply pressure. If so that's 5 or 6 very tough games in a row for the pies. Hard core.
The heat maps are interesting. As is the kms run during games. They also show the top 5 players accross a number of distance covered fields eg total, defence speed, Sprints etc. But this is all only available during a game (I might start screen shotting them). By the by old, a follow up to our discussion about spargo and the high half forward role (which is relevant to heat maps and ks covered), Laurie explicitly played that role yesterday. I heard yze interviewed on abc right before the game started and he was asked about Laurie. He said he had been playing well for 20 weeks and deserved the call up and that he had been brought into the team to play the 'high half forward role' (direct quote). Suggests they are indeed looking for a second high half forward, Laurie was given the chance to make that role his (instead of spargo) and that there is no issue with doing so and also playing Chandler, koz as small forwards. The question for Laurie will be whether he covered the ground well enough, and the answer will be in their gps data that provides the telstra Tracker data
The highest pressure element is physical pressure - worth 3.75. That is literally when a player touches another player - pushes, bump, tackles etc. If every single act was a physical pressure act, the pressure score would 375. But of course it never is otherwise it would be one long contest. in the first, there was a lot of short kicks and switches. Less contests and period where the ball is in dispter so less chance for physical pressure acts. The second we really liked to close them down more with frontal pressure and tackle more. Hence our pressure number jumped to 192. We didn't get scoreboard seperation in that quarter, but we flexed and took the wind out of the hawks sail I reckon. There was a 37 point differential in pressure in the second. Which is huge, and very unusual. I suspect that is if not our highest diff, close to it in one quarter. It's a good thing they had one less day and travel between games I reckon.
I'm positive the players and coaches have the same attitude. We've got the lions measure wherever we play them. Port too. And pies. But there's a fair bit to play out in the next round and a half. Win the next two and let where we finish work itself out.
That's great. Well, lets be frank, not great, just ok. A bunch of tweets and photos, one of with a link to buy some Maxy merch But i haven't received an email, i'm not on twitter and the only video above is the standard electrifying performance 90 second vid they do every week from the blues game. Just checked - still no celebration vids on the website. Maybe they will still come - i hope so. By way of contrast there were two vids celebrating Langer's 150th last month: The first with highlights of his career (replete with the who hoo man), the second an interview with him:
I think we are talking at cross purposes then od. And I wasted a whole bunch of time because I misunderstood your point. I don't think Chandler plays the high half forward role at all (though as I said he has been playing a bit of a hybrid high half forward/small forward role of late). Woey played spargos's role imo. Chandler plays a different role - small pressure forward who stays closer to goal (as would be evidenced by their heatmsap) Maybe you are right, and Chandler has the required athleticism for the high half forward role, and is a better athlete than spargo. If Chandler did play the high half forward role, we would then need another player to come in and play the pressure small forward role, imo (or keep the set up as is and Chandler plays a hybrid role) But's let's agree to disagree. It is a moot point anyway if spargo isn't selected in the same team as Chandler. And I'm not trying to make w case spargo is better than Chandler, or he will replace Chandler (i don't think he will). I'm predicting what I think goody will do selection wise (as opposed to the team I would pick).
Old i know you disagree, and i don't want to get into a back and forth on it. Happy for you to disagree, and rebut too of course but i'll post this response and leave it here if that is ok. I'm trying to get better at not feeling like i have to prove i'm right all the time (on DL and elsewhere)! The high half forward role is a thing. It is an increasingly critical role because all team defence depends on having multiple players who can cover huge ground, at pace, and gut run all game to track the ball from deep into the oppo defence and half forward flank (inside 50 sometimes too of course, but not like the traditional small forwards). They are critical roles because without them all team defence doesn't work as holes open up everywhere that the oppo use to tic tac the ball to free players on transition. And on offence they provide an outlet, tic tac offensive transition option. Forever and a day the game has been about getting the pill - and players are judged on the ability to do so (good players juts know how to get the pill, good players get to where the ball is etc etc). (By the by, this started to shift at club land because when Craig was at the Crows he paid someone to time how often Ricciuto, who was regularly getting 35 plus possessions a game, actually had the ball in his hand during a game. I can't recall the exact number, but over the course of a 2 hour game they realized that Roo, their most prolific ball winner, only had the ball in his hands on the ball something like 3.5 minutes per game. Arguably this changed footy because it shifted the thinking about the contribution of players when they don't have the ball in hand - something that has always been a big part of say basketball). A challenge for the role is that involves a huge amount of unrewarded running and often low possession numbers because they often gut run to spots that result in the ball actually not going near them. For example they gut run to cover a clear switch. If they make it, the ball doesn't get switched, and instead might get kicked down the line 70 metres away from them. Or they sprint to the open space to provide a switch option. The ball is not kicked to them but it drags their opponent with them (gassing that player in the process) to create a hole for a teammate to run into and provide the tic tac option and support transition. The impact is measurable in scores from turnover - just about the most critical stat in footy now (eg stopping the oppo scoring on transition, for example gut running to spoil or running to cover space and forcing a kick down the line to a contest. And scoring on transition when after creating turnover or winning it in the back half of the ground). Or put another way - being involved in scoring chains AND stopping oppo scoring chains (another 'unrewarded' act in terms of accruing a stat - well at least by the media and fans, but not by clubs and teammates). If they do their job they don't get a disposal. Hard to appreciate something that has not occurred, ie everyone can see when a player who gets kick. Every player has to gut run at times and all have to contribute to all team defence. The difference is the unique combination of attributes the high half forward role requires - football skill, football iq, discipline (for instance to not chase the pill to fatten their stats sheet when fans are calling for them to be dropped), elite endurance and elite athletic skills - most notably a high cruising speed akin to a 400 metre runner. Teams need several such players. Langers and Hunter have a similar function - and athletic attributes to Nibbla and Spargo. With no Spargo, another players has to play role (eg Woey) and/or other players have to cover the clicks at speed we miss when Spargo is not in the team (eg chandler playing a hybrid role). I really like Chandler, but he is does not have the athletic attributes required for the role. And i would argue he has been playing a hybrid role, and we saw the issue with that against the blues. He was ineffective as a small forward, in part i would argue because he spent too much time outside 50 and of course was also more gassed than he would have bene if he stayed inside 50 more of the time. And i would argue, as evidenced by the fact they were well ahead on scores from turnover (which almost NEVER happens to us) until late in the third, we also struggled with our all team defence because Chandler cant play that high half forward role to the level Spargo can (and that is not a criticism, just diff types of athletes). And in any case we want Chandler close to goal, as fresh as possible (eg not gassed because he has to sprint from the half back to the forward pocket), applying pressure inside 50, crumbing packs and kicking goals. On Gryan Miers, i thought i made clear that i was comparing roles not performance. I did after all note that Myers averages almost twice as many possessions and that he was chance of AA selection. I chose Myers as a comparison because he is a forward and the conversation is how can a forward get into he AA team having only kicked six goals. Stengel made AA becuase he kicked goals, for instance. Sure, people will say that he in the frame for AA selection because of his goal assists, but although he is miles ahead of every other player (trac is second), he still only provides 1.9 goal assists per game. Curiously though, Spargs, despite being playing 8 fewer games, has kicked almost twice as many goals as Myers (11) and whilst behind on score involvements, not as much as might be imagined (Myers averages 7 per game, Charlie 3.9). As for evidence for the different roles Spargo and Chandler play, it's hard to find specific evidence. The heat maps of both players when both in the team would provide a visual of their diff roles, but i couldn't' find them online. And the other good evidence is total kms covered in a game, defensive kms covered (which is when the oppo have the ball), and ks covered at speed. Again i cant find that data online, but it is on telstra tracker during games and i always look at it at quarter breaks. Nibbla, Langers and Hunter are always at the top of the above measures for us. As for evidence about the high half forward role existence and importance, Daniel Hoyne from Champion data explains it really well here: Go to this link: https://www.sen.com.au/programs/sportsday/ Scroll down to the 'Round 20 Full On Footy Analysis with Daniel Hoyne in the studio - Tuesday August 01 file And listen from 6 mins 24 secs to the 8 mins 34 second mark Summary: The transition game is the most important part of football now (something he has talked about all season) He defines the high half forward role Talks about the importance of the role Argues that bringing players in to play that role, eg Cunningham and Cotteral, is the key reason for the blues revival because it has allowed them them to sort out their transition game He also goes on to argue that without such players, teams can not win a flag and that is why he thinks the dogs are going nowhere (because they lack such players) It is not in this clip, but on another night Hoyne mentioned the Giants recruited Toby Bedford to play the high half forward role, which was an important factor in their improvement too There is also a podcast Tmac did pre season that talks about the high half forward role. There is a thread on DL about it with with the link, and i have written about it somewhere too. I had quick search and can't find either. But in short, Tmac argues the high half forward role Nibbla and Spargo play (so making a clear distinction between that and other roles, eg small forward) is 'the hardest role in football, by far'. He also talks about why that is the case - for example the gut running and 'high striding speed' required for the role and the need, all game, to push deep into defence and get behind the ball, and then on turnover, sprint to get ahead of the ball to provide a transition option. And like i have heard so many ex players say, like Jonesy about Nibbla a few weeks back, Tmac also said that whilst fans may not appreciate players who play the high half forward role, everyone within footy clubs do because they know what is involved and how critical it is to a teams' fortunes.
