DeeSpencer

I tipped Denver 27, Carolina 24. I expected Denver's defense to be amazing, but surprised Carolina have the 2 turnovers and are so reliant on Newton. Why aren't they running it more with Steward? Draw the Denver defense up? I also expected Manning to throw at least 2 picks and be bad, with Denver's D and Special teams to bail them out. Which is happening. Probably thought they'd do a little better on offense though. The strip sack TD and the punt return have been the difference so far. Whoever can make the big plays in the 2nd half probably wins.

I see it the same way. The only thing it achieves is starting 4 different players on the bench each quarter will allow a more even distribution of time on ground. Similarly you could be tactical and leave a burst player on the bench for a longer stint and then put them in the game for impact. A bit of a mini sub each quarter. The reality is I'd say maybe 30-50% of the time if not more of the time you'll be down to 3 on the bench by 3/4 time as well given how often injuries occur. I can think of several instances - Kent v GC (later back on), Kent v Rich, Brayshaw v WC, Frost v Adel, Salem v Haw just off the top of my head where we made the sub before 1/2 time last year.

Removing the sub rule is an interesting change. Thought I'd consider it for Clayton. The obvious change is you can't debut as either the sub or with plans to sub off. Short term that's not good. But medium term that's a good thing to not have players stuck as the sub multiple times. It also means they'll have to go back to the VFL to regather form instead of being sub for a week. Which means they have to be used to getting dropped and to working on their games. The other change is in having the 4th bench spot. 22/4 instead of 21/4 means slightly less - 82% game plan per player. Now if your 4 deepest defenders can do 90, even 95+% TOG that means one player might be able to get away with 60-70% game time. However with 90 rotations that probably means only 1 rest per player per quarter and so longer spells on the ground when the player and more on the ground rotations. Given Hogan, Garlett, a ruckman and possibly another tall or goal kicker will likely play forward most of the game it means even a first year player like Oliver probably has to do midfield minutes. From the training reports that probably won't be a problem, he seems to thrive in the contested stuff. But it might mean 2 or 3 minutes in the midfield spelling an experienced mid before going forward for another 5 or so minutes in each rotation on the ground. Will he have the fitness to do that and keep a high work rate? The Nab challenge will be very interesting for how we plan to manage rotations and how our younger players can handle that.

Not that I've seen, but they'll plate it, put a cast over it, jab it and he'll play, but whether he can be effective I guess we will find out. He'll be ok in pass coverage and if he can 'hit' as they say, where they just spear in and make a tackle that way, not sure he'll be able to tackle if he has to use his arm/hands to hold a tackle.

My thoughts are summarised as: Carolina offense 8.5/10 v Denver Defense 10/10 - Carolina score approx 20 points Denver offense 6/10 v Carolina defense 8.5/10 - Denver score approx 15 points But there's always the wildcards of: 1. special teams 2. Unexpected turnovers 3. missed FG's and missed PAT 4. Injuries - and on that point Davis is already under a big injury cloud

Newton was amazing, but I feel like some of the other members of Carolina's offense need to get some credit as well. Their O line is really good. Olsen is making a case for the 2nd best TE in the league. Stewart always runs hard and the WR keep making big plays. I don't care if they have drops and bad moments, they keep getting open when they need to be. I feel like the success of the panthers is that their good players are really good and the role players around them just keep stepping up when the time is right.

Wow. That Denver defense is something. I need to watch the replay as only saw the last quarter but to make the stand and stop Brady on the 2pt conversion was something. Brady is amazing and Gronk is even better, just a freak of nature. Peyton looked bad in the 4th quarter, might have to watch more to see if the Broncos will get something going in the superbowl. As for Carolina, they are fantastic. They know who they are on both sides of the ball, aggressive and capable of big plays. Most will tip Carolina for the superbowl and I might too, but I'll be keen to see what Denver come up with on offense because their D will at least give them a chance I think.

Pats 24 - Denver 13 Arizona 27 - Carolina 30

Think you nailed it. Brady gets the ball out so quick a pass rush is irrelevant. I think you have to put 2 on Gronk and maybe even 2 on Edelman at times, then disrupt Brady's throwing lanes and not be afraid to give up a big play every now and then. The issue for Denver is without a great passing game they don't want to sell out and take some risks to force Brady in to a mistake or to get a punt and instead I imagine Denver will die a slow death in this game as NE gradually pull away by sustaining drives.

Overall I agree, there's a gap between them but I don't think a lot of those achievements really indicate the gap, some of those are just popularity awards above and beyond the stats and eye test that tell you Selwood is better. Also this year Selwood's team missed the 8 for the first time in his career and was sat on by heavy tags and often his output suffered and he lost his cool. There were lots of games he didn't do anything significant to help his team win. At one stage I think it was Healy who suggested he take a sabbatical and come back when the team was healthy and more talented. The opposite to that is this year was probably the first time in his peak form that Jones had a class ruckman and 2 other quality inside mids to work with and on several occasions he hit the scoreboard and gathered the big possession totals that seem to draw interest from the media. He was also carrying a significant injury and our 3rd best midfielder for most of the year. My point is, Selwood is ahead of Jones, but there's value in considering just how much better his team has been. I don't think Jones will ever get the reputation Selwood has, but you can see the value improved team performance has had on Matt Priddis who I think is an inferior talent to Jones (better clearance winner but far less skilled) and is now regard as an elite midfielder.

Ref's were terrible. Offensive PI missed, then PI missed the other way on the gutsy 2nd down throw and more. But it makes for a great game when it's physical. GB unlucky with the OT rules and the coin flip. Palmer turned a bad day in to a good finish. Is it nerves or is he found out against the best? Credit to GB defense regardless, Arizona will have to be better running the ball to win the whole lot. Great for Larry Fitzgerald to get the win, hope a few Dees players were watching and learning how sticking with your team can be so rewarding. GB and Rodgers will be back next year if they get the receivers healthy and get Eddie Lacy in a fat camp. Lacy is still a good runner when he's motoring but you can tell he just flounders in the open field when he should punish teams and he doesn't seem to play at a high level for full games yet alone a full season.

Sunday 8.35am Kansas City 16 @ New England 24 Sunday 12.15pm Green Bay 20 @ Arizona 34 Monday 5.05am Seattle 24 @ Carolina 21 Monday 8.40am Pittsburgh 10 @ Denver 20 New England, coach and QB advantage, home field, they just get it done. Arizona v GB, regardless of anything else it's very hard to see how the Pack turn it around so much from when these teams last played. Denver win because Big Ben will get hit down and have to leave the game and Manning will do enough. I don't like either team right now, would back KC and NE to beat both. For whatever reason I just believe more in Wilson and the SeaHawks big game experience than Carolina. The Carolina defense can be amazing but had too many soft days off and their offense is good but I can't imagine them being great in play offs. But this is the game I feel least confident about and I feel like it's going to be a great game, shame I won't watch it!

I'm a bit suss on the Giants as I think they need to fire their GM soon and Eli is 35 and might only have 3-5 years left, but still you're looking at a decent 3-5 years with Eli and Beckham. That alone puts it way above Cleveland. SF is a dumpster fire unless you believe in Kap. Philly, no thanks. You'd have to love Tannehill to go to Miami, but that said Gase will do well with him, if you can do well with Cutler you can make something happen with Tannehill and Jarvis Landry. Tampa probably would've been a good job if you liked Winston but they fired Lovie to hire their OC. Same goes with Tenn and Mariota, I think I'd take him, the number 1 pick (especially if you can trade it) and a more relatively stable and under the radar NFL city than Cleveland.

2/8 1/8 1/8 2/8 3/8. Good job Macca Could find my own tips, had commented on the AFC but didn't do the full list. Shows how open the league is, very little love for Carolina or Arizona and they are in the best position to win the NFC. Similarly I think the Bengals could've won the AFC with a healthy Andy Dalton but no one wanted them for the AFC North. The Pats are the one constant.

Isn't Hue Jackson a sucker for punishment, who in their right mind would sign up to coaching both the Raiders (where he was unfairly sacked) and the Cleveland Browns? Who does that? And he would've been a huge chance for the Giants job apparently. Now he's working for Jonah Hill's character from moneyball and a lawyer with no football experience has control of the 53 man roster.

I've never wanted to punch someone through the screen more than that Bills Defensive Line coach who called out the Hogs. What an idiot. The only thing as remarkable as the Bills making 4 superbowls these days would be them losing all 4 of them to current day NFC East teams.

Haven't been to training post Xmas, but from the few sessions I did see of him there's nothing much to report which isn't really a bad thing. They do the majority of sessions with all players mixed in together these days, but he has been in the midfield group from what I recall. Brayshaw played mainly forward last year with only spurts in the midfield, I expect the same from Oliver. His fitness looks decent for a kid, he's in the lower group but I haven't seen him struggle, probably on par with Brayshaw's last year. I'm been impressed by his agility and his size and shape. I don't actually expect him to do anything at training that would change expectations between now and the intraclub and NAB challenge games.

It's bad, but I'm more concerned that the only player we could trade for had a decent shot of this happening to him. There wasn't another half back flanker/wingman in the right age/game played category who wasn't being investigated for doping? The silver lining is opportunity for Mitch White or Josh Wagner.

The AFL can dictate those kind of things as they get all the money and can therefore negotiate with the governments and stadiums. The NFL is controlled by the teams owners who each get a vote on major decisions like that. It's not independent from the teams like the AFL. Teams need a 2/3rds vote to move so the collective group of owners as 'the NFL' do get to decide on who plays where if a team wants to move. But also these almost all rich people who don't like giving away money so I understand why owners want to move if they can't get a good stadium deal that helps them get richer. California does make it very hard with pubic money which is a good thing, then again an NFL team would return some decent cash to a local area. So it's a shame Oakland and San Diego can't work something out. Those teams belong in those cities. St Louis seems like an even bigger stuff up having to rebuild the stadium so soon and with the owner so keen on developing his own stadium in LA. I'd probably vote yes to the Rams moving if I were a fellow owner just because I don't want to see the city of St Louis ripped off paying so much for a stadium.

I forgot to tip the first two games, cost myself a couple! But I'll go: Seattle 20 Vikings 27 Packers 31 Washington 27 NFC North represent.

Anyway, been off this thread out of disgust in the Pats losing to freaking Miami and costing me the tipping comp. I know they weren't all that fussed about winning but they coughed up the 1 seed by running the ball non stop and didn't protect Brady either. Yuck. I've been driven back to this thread by the mindless Bungals. The fumble is bad but I can see why he was fighting for the 1st down and these things happen. But the Burfict reaction to the INT told you he was losing his focus and he lost complete control. He should get a 4 week suspension from the League and the Bengals should consider firing him and making a statement that they don't stand for stupidity any more. They might fire Marvin Lewis which could be a shame. 2 of his former coordinators are coaching tomorrow. Don't know what Pac Man did, they didn't show it, but he should know better as well. He's been well behaved for a few years now. Arggh. What a waste of a year to go out like that.

Could never ever hire a good offensive coach and his defense was outdated and wasn't ever good at Tampa, who had some good defensive pieces before he came. Their improvement this year was from Winston and the OC who they will likely promote to HC. Messy circumstances but a good move. Head coaches get guaranteed money so I think Lovie is looking at over 10 mil in pay outs. It's the lower assistants who have trouble finding new jobs.

3 head coaches fired so far - Eagles, Titans, Dolphins. Cleveland will be next. Then we wait and see on Detroit, Indiana, St Louis, San Diego. San Fran, Can't rule out New Orleans. Plus the Giants. Cowboys apparently won't change. I'll go with 8 teams looking for a new permanent coach by the end of the week. Could be more. Brutal.

Pats Steelers Washington 3rd tip was hard, but had to mix it up and go different from the other contenders.

Wow. Any given Sunday stuff today. Fantastic. Michael Bennett said it best about the rams: "The Rams, they play good football against us. They just don’t play good football against everybody else." Surely the Pats wanted to take the wind, which is fair enough. It's unlikely either team score a TD on the first series of OT in a 20/20 game, take the wind knowing you'll have an advantage in the subsequent field goal battle. Belichick doing the team thing by not hanging out his player, although you have to wonder why Brady doesn't do the coin toss? AFC: Think Denver wins tomorrow to get in, win out for the 2 seed. Cincy the 3 seed, Baltimore might trouble them next week either way. Houston lock up the 4 seed. KC the 5. Then I think the Jets can do it and get the 6, although Jets - Bills should be a ripper. NFC: Carolina and Arizona probably win. Seattle stays in the 6 seed. Washington are the 4 obviously. When it comes down to it will either of the Vikings or Packers want to win next week?? I'd take Washington away over Seattle at home.