DeeSpencer

When did we last beat them up there? We beat them in round 23 in 2015 in a game where they had about 12 out, wasn't really an AFL standard game. Then we fluked a win in round 1 this year when they ran all over us for the middle half of the game and kicked a bucket load of points. I think the formula for beating them is pretty simple - smash them at the contest, isolate defenders, cut down their outside run - but I'm not convinced we'll do it again any time soon. We'll have to show our run is dramatically improved this year and we'll have to have the skills at a high level like they were in round 1.

A destination for guys like Griffen, Mumford, Shaw, Deledio. And a spot that some young draftees enjoy more the battling QLD teams. Some guys will enjoy the club and enjoy anonymity. But I think they'll always be plenty of guys keen to come back to Victoria and play for teams down here but they won't be picking the bad (or small) Victoria teams unless it's unique circumstances like the Boyd deal. Certainly think Kelly stays given how close they are to a flag. Might be interesting to see what happens if they win a couple and players decide they want fresh challenges but I hope that doesn't happen.

He's exactly what we need, gut running and outside class. Not that we don't need Tyson and Salem just as much, but we already have them! Certainly no point having that debate again! I'm sure the club would have a list of out of contract players around the league and they'd probably have lists of the best players per positions of need. Kelly would be high up on both.

Atlanta 24 - Seattle 27 Pats 24 - texans 16 Chiefs 23 - Steelers 20 Cowboys 16 - Packers 31 Seattle to run the ball and win it with defense. Pats to be too good but Texans D to challenge them. Cowboys offense to grind to a halt at Dak struggles and Rodgers takes over. Chief/Steelers the toughest one. I like the Steelers young D to hold up the Chiefs. Bell will run for 150+. Big Ben has been so up and down. If he plays well the Steelers will win by 7+. If the pass rush gets to him the Chiefs might have 4 picks. Berry and Peters to grab 3 between them

Houston 20-10 Seattle 17 - 16 GB 40 - 20 Miami 26 - 24

The Saturday wildcard match ups don't look too interesting but the Sunday one's seem better. Giants v GB certainly looks the best of the games. I don't expect Eli magic but the Giants defense is legit and getting the ball to Beckham and hope he takes a couple to the house isn't the worst offense in the playoffs! I don't know what happened to make Rodgers lose all faith in his receivers mid year but he's back and these new largely unknown play makers in GB are making plays. You're going to need a great offense (Atlanta, Dallas) or a huge defensive effort (NYG, maybe Seattle) to stop them now.

KC Seattle GB - hoping to mozz them! AFC Kubiak retiring due to health reasons. I expect Denver to win for him. KC get the 2 seed. Even if Oakland win I still think the AFC is the Pats, from the Chiefs, with the Steelers a possibility to get hot at the right time but looking less likely each week to actually do it. 3 out of 6 QB's in the AFC play offs will be back ups. That's crazy. NFC I'm pretty sure GB will win and take the division. No idea about Washington and Atlanta taking care of business though. Can't wait for all the NFC play off games though, there's going to be good ones with some really strange mixes of offensive and defensive strengths. Still have no idea who will win the conference.

GB Pittsburgh New England

Bengals Chargers Cowboys Best bet of the week: Ravens + 7.5

I saw him train early in that block at thought his endurance was poor and skills were ordinary. I actually thought Moncrieff was the far better prospect of the 2. So I was very surprised with his Casey form this year. I get the feeling big raw country lads would be Macca's specialty.

Listed as 194cm but has a good leap on him and an athletic powerful frame that should fill out. Oscar will be stronger next year and Frost is being trained up as a defender now. So that's 3 options other than Tom to take on the big boys. Cloke got him once or twice in that absolute wet bog of a game at Casey but he was more beaten for smarts by an experienced player than for sheer strength.

Thankyou Bears for one of the great tank jobs of all time getting me the tip and getting the bears closer to a top 3 draft pick. Oh and yay another injury to our best remaining defensive player. At the same time, Matt Barkley NFL QB? Maybe? What a shame his receivers dropped all those passes including 2 in the end zone for the game winner.

Titans Pats Giants

Steelers Pats Titans

KC Dallas Cincy Nightmare week for tips. People tipping the Bears shows how bonkers it is.

I thought he was good in the prelim thrown forward to do a job. Then the Dogs forwards probably didn't suit him in the grand final but he wasn't terrible. Rookie draft seems more likely all the way as not many mature players get drafted in the national draft unless they are dominating state leagues. I don't think the finals series would've made a huge difference to his draft stocks.

Dawes, Lumumba and Melksham missing a year.

Dallas Carolina Philly

They blew a few games with bad mistakes and dodgy coaching but I still think the Eagles are the best balanced team in the NFC. They had Dallas on the ropes and let them off the hook. Of course I'd love to see them with a good receiver and thought they could've made a trade for a veteran receiver who wasn't going to drop passes or make costly mistakes.

So a reliable friend was talking a best 22 high profile young Essendon player and asked if they'll miss Hibberd. The response was - nah mate, he hasn't run in a year, his knee is stuffed. Hope we haven't brought another lemon.

J Pod was a seriously good goal kicker who adapted better than a lot of clubs thought to AFL. Smith isn't the same player. Doesn't have the size or goal kicking. If he was to make AFL it would be on the back of rounding out his game with good forward pressure, ability to get up the ground and then some marking and goal kicking. He's nicknamed Bull and impressed with his follow up work this year. I think he'd be somewhere between a mix of Tory Dickson from the Dogs and Vanders for us. A 3rd tall who can provide a contest in the air and on the ground.

Pats Vikings Chiefs Keep forgetting to do my tips the last few weeks. Not a great season as a bears fan. They've stripped the roster to build through the draft with a defensive focus and almost every starter on the defense has been injured and half the offense has too. A total mess. The one highlight was the Hoyer looked was doing a fantastic job keeping the Bears in games without winning to facilitate a nice tank job and now he's injured, Cutler comes back to try and save his job and the Bears might just be dumb enough to keep him.

The Freon Demons sound like a workplace team of a fridge repair company. Now I know Jeff's filled out a bit but I'd hope he isn't the size of a fridge yet. Then again, hasn't stopped Darren Jarman's kid getting drafted this year.

A little disappointed that his goals on the run from 50 seem to only just carry the line and don't go thumping over the fence. I thought he had more kicking penetration than that. But he can still hoof it and we don't have a defender who can regular get forward and goal so it's hard to complain there. I think he'll need time to get back in to peak form and fitness but he's a good all around defender who does everything pretty well. That combination should really help our backline.

I don't believe that's true. That gets said every year. This year they are saying it's a deep draft for outside runners in an even top 30 or so picks and that's what we need. Without a first rounder this year I think it's important to have a 2nd rounder because you have a higher chance of a kid you rate very highly slipping to your pick. I also think the momentum of adding another quality skilled youngster is important and we can give this kid a good run at Casey in ideal development conditions. Staying ahead of the draft is a handy advantage as well, it boosts our list quality. All up I think the positives outweigh the negatives.