DeeSpencer

Nope both teams should wait and be more creative. There's no way we will pay more than pick 22, that's the final offer, there's plenty of other things to look at first.

They have Liam Henry this year, there's no point in them having pick 22 because that will get swallowed up by points when a bid comes for Henry in the 10's. Freo should want picks in the top 10 and then not another pick to 40+. A future 2nd rounder and something else (swap of 3rd's and 4ths) to give them points this year to use on Henry is as valuable to them and allows us to keep the pick.

Freo might be silly but they aren't silly enough to to pay up for Gus with a bad back, concussions, awful kicking and lack of leg speed that makes him pretty much without a position. His contract is untradeable and we have to do the best we can to salvage his career. Burgess is going to have to work some magic to strip weight from him and get burst speed, agility and elite tackling in to his game in a hurry. He is firmly in the Trengove zone. Prove me wrong.

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The Champion Data nonsense frustrates me as much as anyone but my point of quoting from HPN was merely to show the different values from an independent source who's crunched some numbers. Analytics is slowly but importantly coming in to footy and a lesson from other sports is that the draft and player exchange period is where that often starts. Coaches don't want geeks telling them how to run a gameplan but they'll listen when there's stats that show that drafting or recruiting a certain player is far more valuable than some other player. Even more so when it's pick for pick trades that aren't even attached to a certain player. I don't think Langdon's worth anything like pick 6. A 2nd rounder makes sense. But I was surprised to see him rate so highly.

Interesting the HPN Trade calculator values Ed Langdon at about pick 6 Tomlinson - pick 21 Sam Frost - pick 37 Jamie Elliott - pick 62 https://www.hpnfooty.com/?page_id=22878 These guys value quantity over quality - they are looking at future value in terms of games a player will give a team, which is probably why Elliott is far lower than Langdon and Tomlinson. So whilst I don't like a few things about Langdon it's interesting that his age and durability see him very highly rated in some metrics.

Barry Hall and in the not too distant future Joe Daniher, they've mastered offering a new lifestyle to big name key forwards since Plugger. By modern times I meant since the current draft and trades and professional era and not including the days of Kelvin Templeton or anything like that where player movement was quite different. Honestly there were more than I could remember that moved clubs but I don't think many have been successful. Fraser Gehrig's actually a big success story that we both forgot, converting a guy who wasn't even a full time forward in to a Coleman winner.

Obviously some out on the fulls or failed to score but he's 15.11, 12.10 and 34.18 the last 3 years, I think he's a pretty solid shot for goal now, but he's also 29 and never cemented a permanent spot. Did play ok down back this year as well. We could do worse than him for the last tall depth spot, but I think he wants a 2 year deal and a chance to play.

At 4 games a season it would only take him another 24 years to get there! Sydney would've loved him to wait until free agency I bet, Essendon couldn't extend him and are trapped between a rock and hard place and will probably end up getting below his top price.

Sorry I meant to have successful in there - and probably should've said modern time as well. McGovern isn't a big name and so far hasn't been good, neither has Hogan. Dixon isn't a top liner and hasn't worked. Add Mitch Clark to that list. Patton certainly not a big name now. Waite was never an A grader, moved at the tail end of his career and did far better than predicted - Carlton weren't even compensated for his loss, that's how much he wasn't rated at that age. Boyd and Tom Lynch are almost one off situations - expansion clubs in unusual situations, although Ben King is similar to both and worth watching. Boyd mostly didn't work, luckily he played 3 good games mostly in the ruck at the right time. I still feel like the odds of bringing in a Tom Lynch are exceptionally rare. Collingwood were a great side for most of the 2000's and couldn't get anyone. Unless you're Sydney and can offer the chance of success and a fresh start outside the media bubble or possibly a WA team with go home factor you're looking at a long time between drinks. Ben King is obviously some chance and Jez Cameron isn't completely ruled out but you can't just go out and get a guy like that and if you do they might be available for a reason and not what you really need.

They are very rare and incredibly expensive. A top draft pick is still the best hope. The history of big name key forward moves has been guys fleeing Victoria to go to Sydney (or Brisbane) on huge money and that's about it. We had a very talented junior who starred as a baby but we didn't develop his mind nor his body correctly and there's about 1000 stats to show Hogan in 2018 was far more of a flat track bully than a gun key forward. I'd love to go back in time to about 2015 and sort him out then but it is what it is now. I agree with this. Tom McDonald is a 50 goal kicker with some excellent traits if harnessed correctly. Next year is huge for him but if the body and mind are in the right place and he plays to his strengths he can show why he's a fringe AA if not better key forward. And Fritsch's finish to the season was even better than I imagined he could do when given the opportunity to play as a forward marking target. He's another guy who could be special if used correctly. Agreed. Unless it's a guy to do a very specific role but someone like Jenkins doesn't excel at forward pressure, crashing packs and being the 2nd ruck which is the kind of player I'd like to have. A younger, healthier, taller Tim Smith would be great but good luck finding that kind of player. It's a nice suggestion but it's completely against the notion of free agency, which was collectively bargained for a reason. It's a basic work force right. Start increasing restrictions on free agency and the players will be off to court and disbanding the whole draft and trade model in about 3 seconds. Really the competition is probably better off going with expanded free agency at a younger age - after 5 or 6 years - so that the player market is bigger with more talent available. Is it unfair that Richmond got Tom Lynch or is it unfair that we had to pay pick 6 to get May? Create more free agents and then the top sides will be penalised for signing big names because their next wave of out of contract players will get picked off. Players signing at a younger age can jump on board a club who's recently drafted well - the likes of Lever will come to us for the ride up the ladder not just joining the top sides. Look how much Brandon Ellis and Tomlinson are getting paid as free agents by bad clubs like the Suns and us. If every other player out there in this trade period was free then clubs would be paying huge sums to all the players moving. Eventually the salary cap pressures really kick in and there's a big market of players available. Then the only teams with cap space will be the clubs who have drafted and signed up their own players before they hit the market. Yes the big clubs will get an advantage but they already have a huge advantage! Open it up and let clubs get the players they want and need whilst keeping draft picks. If teams are a basketcase they'll be terrible but they already are!

Disagee, I think Papley has significantly more zip than Elliott, especially given Jamie's age and injury history. Elliott's the better player close to goal given his marking ability but Papley can do a lot more defensively, up the ground creating goals and can even rotate in to the midfield and be very handy on ball. The combined cost of the contract and draft picks are just too much for him. Him going to Carlton now reminds me of us signing Lever - and not to bad mouth the player or the deal - but it's the kind of big splash move you make once you've finished drafting a heap of talented kids and you can afford a luxury.

The comparisons are to find the type of players for the roles if we were to copy Richmond straight up - which I don't recommend but I think we should at least look at how they are playing as they are. We used Spargo at half back towards the end of the year - mainly because we didn't have a lot of options but also to give us an agile zippy half back who can really run. I'm not proposing we use Spargo in that role full time, he isn't big or strong enough and his kicking isn't a positive either. But we have to at least consider options. If Hibberd is just too slow and unfit to do that job anymore or is needed deeper in the backline then we have to think about who can play that kind of role. But can we play 3 mediums in the same forward line with 2 talls who aren't good defensively? Maybe we take Melksham and move him to a wing like the Tigers did with Caddy mid year? Or do we use the 3 medium guys as an advantage and find defensive pressure and speed elswhere? This is the type of year not only to bring in new players but to examine how are best players fit together. If we can make a few structural moves now to make the team better rather than waiting until mid year when the team balance is off then that can give us a big advantage in the early rounds.

A quick look through his instagram reveals a very unusual character. Makes me more concerned about what dazzle has said. I'll take a chance on a knockabout country lad who makes a poor decision, but I'm seeing a lot of photos - including with Tom Bugg's business partner - that don't impress me. Plus the more you watch of that kicking the more frightening it is.

His kicking certainly isn't using a great technique but I'm not sure he's even played enough AFL to really know what it's like. At the Pies he was clearly bought in to run and carry and that's what he did with great success, then teams caught on and he ran himself in to trouble. Then he was banned before he got to make that next adjustment/development. Are we sure he will even be set for a half back role? Could play midfield or half forward. Just for the pace alone I'd take a chance on him as depth...unfortunately we've gone and signed up all our depth players already!

I can’t help but see the Atley in him, but Atley also became a very useful player this year and some of Ash’s kicks look better than Atley’s. Overall technique a bit more sound? He looks the kind of flawed but high upside player you’d love at 10 but not at 3. Can he chase down and tackle, maybe start his career as a forward? I’m still waiting for some more highlights videos to drop to see a player who really catches my eye for pick 3. Serong and Young both have a lot to like but don’t quite tick every box.

Every single Saints fan lost faith in him a long time before Richo did. Gave him way too many chances. Could be a good player again if he finds some hardness and speed but otherwise just a list clogger

You're reading too much in to that. There's no point offering Frost a below par contract that he won't take. It then gets leaked to the media - 'Melbourne offered him 350k, he's worth 600k, how cheap are the demons'. If we've made peace with him leaving there's no point chasing after him with a below market deal. I doubt Oscar is the long term answer and I'd bet the club knows that he's not a world beater, he's just a cheap option who's signed up and it's not impossible to win games with him. If May and Lever play like the A graders we hope they are then we can't be spending big money on a 3rd guy who isn't even that good.

Geelong use Tom Stewart and GWS use Nick Haynes as interceptors who get tasked with minding a half forward and peeling back, Tigers either get Vlastuin free or have Grimes peel back deeper. Lever has to win is share of one on ones but I'd still be starting him off dictating terms to a bad forward than tasking him with a good tall opponent.

Yeah I watched that one and thought geez he's very Whitfield like, maybe without the dual sided skills (one shank, one nice jab on the right) and an inch or two shorter. Would have to see whether he's up for the contested ball and if the pace holds up at AFL level but he's a very smooth outside runner and kicker. I think the dream result would be to trade pick 3 for something like picks 10/12 and get Stephens and a forward/mid type player. By the way I'm probably mad but just seeing Dom Barry involved a in those pieces of play....I still think he's too good for state league footy. 21 disposals at 86% and 26 goals....bring him over for a 3rd go at AFL footy?

I'm a Petty fan but he's a little slow and inconsistent at the contests, probably will always be better suited up the ground. I think we need to get back to using late round/rookie picks as they were intended to be used and taking some project talls.

Nev Jetta and Steve May are 2 pretty handy players. Richmond have embraced the need for speed and found 2 very good small forwards - with decent draft picks mind you - in Rioli and Bolton. Then in the last year they've had such a strong list and culture that they've rolled the dice on guys with high upside but known off field concerns in Stack and Pickett. They handled Stack really well, having him live with the coach and really push his case for a list spot when 17 other clubs didn't take the risk. Then they gambled on Pickett with the mid season draft despite a long injury lay off and have been rewarded. I'd certainly encourage our recruiters to keep looking for guys like Bolton and Rioli to pick up in the draft, as for the other guys it's a matter of trusting your culture and staff and knowing what is and isn't a risk worth taking. Richmond have been rewarded for embracing new rules and being smart to get ahead of the competition.

When it comes to games against teams with 2 gun talls we'll be in a bit of trouble though. Take Richmond, if we send May to Lynch then it's Petty/Oscar or an outgunned Lever trying to cover Riewoldt or vice versa on Lynch, not a good result. I never had all that much trust in Frost defensively anyway, too many mental mistakes defending. Even if we kept him I'd be advocating heading to the draft for a young athletic key defender of the future.

Surely we've all seen enough of Lever one on one by now to know that's not the answer. We'll need another tall and ideally one with the flexibility to play on fast medium sized guys, but sometimes it's worth taking a step backwards for a year or two developing or trading in a long term answer. It's not impossible to find key defenders from the delistings or state leagues either.

Gaff’s 27 now and on a decent contract that probably gets extended at a new club. After watching him this year I’m not convinced he’s a big value player anymore. Its not part of the Eagles game plan but he doesn’t really break lines on the wing anymore so they’ve moved him inside where he provides spread and a handball option to their stronger mids. His kicking is reasonably reliable but not as damaging as it was or was meant to be. I’d want a lot back with him to include pick 3.