DeeSpencer

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/16/pickett-likely-for-demons-opener-forward-line-plans-in-place/ On Brown: 'Back playing some form of footy between round 5 and round 7'

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That was Josh Smith

Yet we beat more finals teams with that combination than we did in the rest of the season with flat track Jesse moping around. Weideman showed last year he can absolutely still be one of the main targets and adequately replace Hogan. Unfortunately Tom McDonald turned from a fringe AA player to a cactus overnight. Now he gets his chance to make a stirring return to form.

Theory...Tommy Mac’s marking is all wrong. His fingers are pointing up too much and he needs to wrap them around the ball more and let the ball come deeper towards his thumbs. Compare and contrast with Nick Riewoldt

Can I use that for a pet peeve. The umps throw the ball in too flat trying to get it in deep. That makes a tall ruck like Max struggle to be useful because it’s hard to tap the ball over his head to the corridor. The best forward ruck is Hawkins because he just pushes his opponent (often illegally) under the ball and the snaps goals or dishes handballs in to the corridor. I thought Weid could do the same as he gets stronger. Benny Brown might be the same but he’s light in the legs. Max could make an impact occasionally but I don’t think he’s as good as people think. All the time dropping him out of forward 50 stoppages doesn’t hurt us all that much.

Kozzie is 19 and skinny, I'm not convinced photos alone provide any real evidence of how much training he did or didn't do. I also don't really care, he's back, he looks happy enough and his hair looks great.\ Good to see so many under the injury cloud out there. Bowey's gone with the game day haircut. No idea yet if he can play but Deakyn Smith looks like he'll be a very strong boy when he matures. Is there something wrong with Bedford's handball technique?

Good one. Hardwick would be sacked in the corporate world (then hired with a promotion elsewhere). But yes he's always been a strong character and leader. The Sheedy era Essendon bravado, but it wasn't all there going in to 2017. I'd argue the real Simon Goodwin is a lot more passionate than the one who does press conferences and even appears in the club media. The Paul Roos 'say nothing' press conferenced just don't work for Goody, he doesn't have the charisma. Roos can talk in circles and get the benefit of the doubt, Goody just gets tied in knots. I've said since 2019 that we'll know if Goodwin has any chance of saving his job when he's relaxed and truly honest in press conferences. Personally I think the club has set him up to fail with list management, assistant coaches and footy administration but he's still some chance to save his job and go on to success. For that to happen he has get all the players and assistants following him. Apart from early season wins the big thing he needs is conviction. When he took over the job he believed in his plan and rode it to finals.

I don’t know the context for this but it’s just exceptionally lazy if it’s not part of a larger discussion of who/where/why some of our players are playing individual football. Jake Niall addressed this with some of our mids in a detailed article. We could also do with an outside mid or forward who’s selfish if they are really dangerous. I sure wouldn’t say no to Tom Papley for instance. Petracca doesn’t always do the team thing but he’s earnt some license. Gawn, Viney, Oliver, May, Lever could all play the percentages better at times but for every time they bite off too much they also do really great team acts. They are overwhelmingly team players but need coaching and collective leadership.

We’re also getting in to the conundrum of Gawn. Rucks don’t try to beat him. They defend space that makes him hit a certain way. He can’t leap like Nic Nat so he can’t hit 360. Then they assault our mids with heaps of pre-tackles. He can smack it forward, but then it’s a contest at half forward with momentum of the players running away from goal. He can pluck the ball from the air, but the other team catches on and tackles him and from hand to ball is a long way. There’s creative options: 1. Max learns to gather and spin and kick with his left to throw off tacklers. 2. Our on ballers hit the contest with more speed or dispose by punching the ball away - a second hit out that changes the shape of the contest 3. Max hammers an opponent with the biggest possible knee to the chest etc 4. Max punches the ball 20m sideways to Oliver on a wing. Or backwards to Hunt etc 5. Max takes less centre bounces

The stats and language is getting jumbled but Jimmy is right. Richmond worked out in 2017 that first possession means little. It’s quality not quantity. For years we’ve won the ball, spat it out backwards or lobbed it up in the air on our half forwards heads. The stat I’d like to know is Clearances that result in an effective kick inside 50 (ie to a forwards advantage or 50:50). Every other clearance is just a negative because you’re either turning the ball over or kicking to a very dangerous spot (ie corner of the square). I don’t care if we win 1 in 5 centre clearances if the 1 we win lands on Fritsch’s chest and the 4 we lose get sat up for Lever to mark.

Agree with all of that. But I have to assume no one wanted McDonald or Brayshaw on 700k a year. And we paid big overs for Tomlinson and even Langdon (yes Langdon cost too much IMO). I wouldn’t have signed Ben Brown and have instead chucked another 20k at McKernan as depth, then put that money in to a outside runner. Cut Mitch Brown for another cheap as chips runner too. Retired Jones and Jetta to free up cash for a mid tier option. In terms of improvement the best possible version of our backline has a lot of talent. The midfield can get twice as good if the lesser players support Gawn, Oliver and Tracc - whilst those 3 elite players combine individual brilliance with team play. I don’t know if Brown, Weid, Fritsch and role playing smalls are enough or will even work but for this year at least the biggest test is on Goodwin and Yze sorting the mids out.

Goodwin made a successful change of defensive system last year. Defending deeper and being more comfortable conceded inside 50’s. We have a new midfield coach, a clear sign the club are aware of issues. I would’ve made list changes - out Brayshaw and/or Viney, in flanker, Rivers/Salem on ball. But we never get the inside word on what deals were available or even know who makes those calls. It’s largely semantics but I don’t think Goodwin isn’t aware of problems, he just can’t fix them. It’s still his responsibility- the list and skills aren’t where they should be. It’s just there’s no easy fixes. Our best fixes last year were Melksham on ball for more kicking. Melksham was the answer! And pissing Oliver off so much by coaching him to do better, which by reports had him thinking of leaving.

May's 2020 might've just pipped Frawley's best season given he provided a lot of rebound (with the occasional odd decision). Nev Jetta 2014-2018 might be one of the best runs we've had of consistently good footy. Clearly the time is now for Lever to start producing quality footy. I'm excited to see what Salem, Rivers and Bowey can do as a trio if we can get them all in the same backline and working together. In 2018 we had Hibberd, Lewis and Salem all playing well together and whilst the talls and the system broke down at times it was a nice feeling to know that apart from a bit of Frostball more times than not we wouldn't butcher it from half back.

He's a great mark, but has to work on lots of the rest of his defending. The best thing for his development is sustained footy at one end I agree, but we can probably get by with Tomlinson short term and if the teams needs are for someone to do the job at CHF he has to be considered. It's hopefully only a month until Brown is back

Zero midfield rotations, nice. What do we do after the 7 minute mark of the first quarter?

3 goals in 4 games last year and that was with at least a decent preseason. 43 goals in 54 games too. Even if some of them were down back. He has a few weeks training and kicks goals against a Box Hill line up with 0 AFL players and he’s the answer? That doesn’t seem rational. And maybe he is the answer? But if the fitness staff think playing him too much too early might risk injury as well then where does that leave us and him? If the coaches want to make a bold move up forward and Tom McDonald isn’t the answer then play Petty.

Not sure what you mean by ‘subs don’t work’. Some teams got good use out of the sub rule. Gia was the super sub for the dogs I believe. For home games it’s pretty much just having your first emergency a little more warmed up and ready to play. It really disadvantages travelling sides but if Adam Simpson is calling for it that shows how keen they are to not be a man down. And given how regularly guys get injured it’s more 2-3 men down that really worries them. Good teams won’t use the same player too often and will factor in development. That’s what happens now with emergencies. I’m actually more concerned by the 23rd player than the sub. I’m in favour of less players (16 on field) than keeping on adding players.

If you really trying to get an advantage I think you could instruct one of your lesser players to stay down after a tackle to be subbed for fresh legs. Unlikely but it’s a factor to consider.

The impact of a man down depends on whether you think teams play with 18 and a bench or if you think they play with 22 who are constantly rotating through the bench. Coaches clearly think it’s the latter. They see 21 as a disadvantage, and 20 as a major disadvantage. It’s hard to argue against that but I think it’s fair to say if we manage concussions perfectly then they can be treated like any other injury. It all comes down to how concussions are managed.

It’s not about being a man down, it’s about acting in the abundance of caution for an injury you can’t see and can’t easily detect at the time. So I’m supportive of the rationale but I don’t think it’s the best solution. I think the best solution is independent doctors. Thats the best way to be cautious, take out any risk and take out any incentive for subbing someone on.

Cheers. Trent Mynott and Cal Porter the only former AFL players that I could see running around for Box Hill. Our AFL guys should be putting in strong performances (and it seems they are).

What can you say about the quality of the Box Hill line up? Is Breust playing, he missed their AAMI game for a wedding. Denver GB? The Hawks best 22 is actually half decent but I don't think they have a lot of exposed depth.

Jackson I guess is 11 although I'd imagine he's forward a fair bit in round 1, and I was thinking the midfield stuff for Kozzie was more about fitness and he's too important forward but really we need his burst in the middle too. I'd probably play Chandler as a forward and take out a mid if they are going to use Kozzie on ball just because we skills and pressure forward. That's really the balance - how to keep enough forward craft in your forward line whilst getting as many midfield rotations as possible.