Dr. Gonzo

It's not about wanting to trade him, it's about what we can get if he decides to leave.

He's not a FA next year but he will be out of contract.

2013 - Freeman and Scharenberg have had injuries but other than that the top 10 have all cemented themselves as AFL players. 2014 - McCartin has had a lot of scrutiny due to being pick 1 but has played well enough to be considered an AFL level player. Ahern I don't know much about, Cockatoo plays seniors when not injured. The rest are all AFL quality players. 2015 - Schache looks like a bust but is still young. The rest are all AFL quality players. 2016 - Not sure about some of the GC boys (Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes) but they've all played senior footy. McGrath, Taranto, McCluggage, Ainsworth, SPS all AFL level talent and still very young. 2017 - Some of these kids are still too young to make a call on - but Rayner, Brayshaw, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson have all played. The Saints picks may have missed (again too early to say) but their whole club is a shambles at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if they're recruiters are as well. Overall the draft (and in particular top 10/15 picks) are less of a lottery than they have been in the past. It's not a sure thing but the strike rate is vastly improved on top 10 picks, generally about 75-80% (as I said previously).

An article last week said Carlton were into him earlier this year to replace Andy McKay as the Head of Footy but they pinched Brad Lloyd (Matthew's brother) from Freo. Not sure if someone else is into him now but I wouldn't be surprised he's proved a good operator since shifting to a FD role about 5 years ago.

Recruiters look for different things when drafting. What our recruiters previously looked for were not qualities that would necessarily translate to senior footy. I agree the draft is a bit of a lottery. That's why I would want us to flip any draft picks we might get for known quantities. But I also think our current recruiting team are streets ahead of what we've had previously. They're not just hitting on top 10 picks, they're hitting on picks in the 50's. I also think top 10 picks, while not a home run, are closer to 75-80% chance of hitting than busting and that probability has improved over recent years with a greater investment in drafting/recruiting and better environments for development.

It was, but how much of that was because he was injured. A foot injury shouldn't see a player like him miss regulation marks which he did against Port, Geelong & Adelaide. He does have a tendency to go missing when we need him but in a lot of those games out mids got shut out too. He also has the capacity to kick a big bag (6-8 goals these days) TMac probably the only other on our list to have that in him at this stage but I think 5 is his biggest haul.

JT, JM & TV have runs on the board though. Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Weideman - none would be considered busts.

We can try but I doubt we'll be getting Cerra. Players don't usually end up parts of these deals, it's usually player for picks which may be on traded for another player. Freo giving up Cerra for Hogan would be cutting off the nose to spite the face especially considering they're already losing Neale. We think we've got the whip hand cos he's contracted, they'll think they've got the whip hand cos he's agreed to move. Our FD doesn't usually stuff around making ambit claims, we generally come to the table with a fair offer.

What if we kept pick 5 and traded next year's first for May?

An exchange that saw us lose Hogan and gain May would be terrible and terrible from a PR perspective as well. If we can score May plus a top 10 pick it would be more palatable

You listed a bunch of key forwards and stayed they were all on a mil. They're not, Boyd and Buddy are but they were overpaid to get them to move. Now youre just further speculating, it's not based on reality. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/09/26/how-this-blockbuster-trade-could-see-melbourne-secure-may/ “They’ve already had one captain leave in Tom Lynch - who will be joining Richmond on a six or seven-year deal at just under one million dollars a season." You're overestimating player salaries.

Yeah the silence is deafening

Maybe in a few years, but Weideman is not commanding a million bucks this time next year, I don't care how well he plays. Btw Roughead, Riewoldt, Kennedy, Patton, Cameron are not on a million and Boyd was severely overpaid.

Who cares it's all fugazi. Didn't hurt Hawks in 2013. Didn't hurt Tigers last year. Won't impact the teams performance so who cares?

You are overestimating their salaries.

If Hogan stays, we can play Hogan and Weid as key forwards, shift TMac down back to be the big key defender. He's basically the same size as May if not slightly bigger. We then have flexibility to shift TMac forward when required or Hogan up the ground.

The same thing happened in 1998. Farmer was robbed of MOTY because it happened in round 22 and therefore wasn't considered. Such an amateur organisation some times.

Well she wasn't wrong....

I definitely remember them saying that was the case however who knows - they may have changed rules on the fly. Shiel for example was taken as an underage recruit yet only qualifies for FA at the end of next year (first senior listed in 2012) but I don't know if that's just due to contract situation.

The year he played at Casey and not on our senior list counts as service towards FA. The question was asked about some of GC/GWS picks they took a year early who played in neafl the year before they joined the AFL and the answer from the AFL was that those years count towards FA.

If the reported $1.2m/year offer is true (no idea if it is or not) then it will be Freo. We're not pushing him out the door like Watts, the only circumstance I could see where we pay some of his contract is if it helps get us a better trade deal.

Not saying it won't happen, but Port would be stupid to do that trade. The draft is still very much a lottery and I would rather have two top 10 picks than one top 5 pick.

Reports are that he won't consider a contract extension. It's pretty easy to put 2 and 2 together and get 5 but it also would make the club a bit wary.

I reckon since then Freos put a big offer to his management which has given him cause to consider his options. Combined with the club seeing Weid come on in September and us talking to May and things seem to be adding up. Why would we be talking to May last week knowing we had no chips to play for him? We must have had an inkling something was going on.

He also has a tendency to beat up on poor teams and have less impact against the top sides. I'm not gonna lie, if this was last year I'd be distraught but I've fallen out of love with Hogan a bit this year. Not as in I no longer love him as a player or want him gone, just that if he goes I won't feel like my heart's been ripped out like I would've in the past. He's had injury but even earlier in the year he had a great run while we were smashing sides and didn't do much when we really needed him to stand up. He still misses too many regulation goals as well, especially against the Swans which cost us big time. Yeah he was injured but if your ok to play then you still kick those goals If he ends up staying, great. If he leaves, let's see what we get.