Little Goffy

Strong possibility of an epic game.

Reading the initial responses in this thread I just got the most uneasy sensation that we've all been replaced by simulations.

Seems a bit harsh on Petracca for just three weeks a bit off the boil, but it probably works out statistically if you're into that. I think Brayshaw missed out by a statistical fingernail, and probably suffered a bit because he has not quite fit the usual roles of either dedicated rebounder or dedicated interceptor/supporter. But he really has only just missed on either format, which to me just underlines his importance. Gawn is statistically pipped by, again, the barest of margins by Tim English. Remembering Gawn had a couple of quiet ones (just 'excellent' games) earlier in the season and his injured second half against Collingwood. As for Jarrod Witts - clearly that is a matter of how Champion Data prioritise according to position, with Witts' sheer volume of hitouts and hitouts-to-advantage being all the difference there. On a positive note, seeing a couple of the midfield elite names there got me thinking, and sure enough, since he found his current vein of form Jack Viney has been right in that group. Still flying under the radar a bit, but at present is an absolute A-grader. It is a nice touch that the only player they made an exception for in their categories of statistical eliteness was Bontempelli. And, you know, fair enough, that's fine, but also, kind of points up how silly their use of field categories is.

I nominate Christine Holgate.

My 'dizzy' post kind of covers my thoughts here as well. It's a much tougher prospect as a tall defender in a team which relies on up-field pressure to force rushed and predictable kicks. Lever was recruited to gobble those up and shoot the ball back out again after taking intercept marks. How much of his drop in form is attributable to the team process going a bit soft and how much is his personal form is hard to judge. But there's definitely been a serious drop. Even the state bear it out; STATISTIC 2021 2022 Intercepts 10.3 6.2 Cont marks 1.8 0.6 Marks 5.4 4.2 Rebound50s 4.1 2.2 Metres gained 277 193 One percenters 6.7 5.0 Overall he' dropped off by about a third across the publicly available stats which are most relevant to his game. Definitely one of the players we want to see returning to their best form if we are going to be climbing back up again from our equal-top-of-ladder slump.

Oh dear god no... I just realised there is a scenario here where we end up taking Tom Scully.

The Sumich rumour of >$10m over 7 years is obviously outside good reason. Gawn wouldn't even be close to that amount of coin. Jackson is an excellent footballer with serious energy and he's fun to watch as well, but he's not team-defining. Oddly, right now the club which probably gets the most value from Jackson would be the Demons. Obviously we need him while Gawn recovers and we also get great value out of him as a contrasting style with Gawn. That lasts for as many years as it does and then Jackson will be a bit more developed and a bit more experienced in ruck, and take over the No1 role. It looks like the perfect career path for a young ruckman, really. Meanwhile we would clearly be looking to find some big-bodied beast to play forward-ruck in future (or right now if it were possible) and provide another contrasting type of tall.

The ball is coming in badly to the forwards, who aren't doing very well at forcing the ball to a scrap, and then we aren't doing so well at making it a scrap in our forward area in general, so the rebounds for our opponents come out faster and cleaner, so our zoning players don't have as much time to close down options, which means opposition entries into their forward 50 are less predictable, which means our defenders can't reliably get into the best positions to intercept or contest, which means when we do rebound it isn't as clean and fast, so then our movement forward isn't as decisive, so the ball is coming in badly to the forwards, who aren't doing very well at forcing the ball to a scrap, and then we aren't doing so well at making it a scrap in our forward area in general, so the rebounds for our opponents come out faster and cleaner, so our zoning players don't have as much time to close down options, which means opposition entries into their forward 50 are less predictable, which means our defenders can't reliably get into the best positions to intercept or contest, which means when we do rebound it isn't as clean and fast, so then our movement forward isn't as decisive, so the ball is coming in badly to the forwards, who aren't doing very well at forcing the ball to a scrap, and then we aren't doing so well at making it a scrap in our forward area in general, so the rebounds for our opponents come out faster and cleaner, so our zoning players don't have as much time to close down options, which means opposition entries into their forward 50 are less predictable, which means our defenders can't reliably get into the best positions to intercept or contest, which means when we do rebound it isn't as clean and fast, so then our movement forward isn't as decisive, so the ball is coming in badly to the forwards, who aren't doing very well at forcing the ball to a scrap, and then we aren't doing so well at making it a scrap in our forward area in general, so the rebounds for our opponents come out faster and cleaner, so our zoning players don't have as much time to close down options, which means opposition entries into their forward 50 are less predictable, which means our defenders can't reliably get into the best positions to intercept or contest, which means when we do rebound it isn't as clean and fast, so then our movement forward isn't as decisive, so the ball is coming in badly to the forwards, who aren't doing very well at forcing the ball to a scrap, and then we aren't doing so well at making it a scrap in our forward area in general, so the rebounds for our opponents come out faster and cleaner, so our zoning players don't have as much time to close down options, which means opposition entries into their forward 50 are less predictable, which means our defenders can't reliably get into the best positions to intercept or contest, which means when we do rebound it isn't as clean and fast, so then our movement forward isn't as decisive, so the ball is coming in badly to the... Stooping there, I'm dizzy.

A paternity test has been ordered.

Gropey, boozed, and a long way from drug testing when you have a track record of sexual harassment, unhinged drinking and a bit of [redacted] stuff going on as well. Also; Jason Horne-Francis getting hacked at for, literally, visiting his mother. Anyway, I predict this will greatly help Petracca's form, as De Goey was basically put on this earth to provide a cautionary tale of what Petracca's life would be like if he just half-arsed it as both a player and human being. A real 'ghost of Christmas present'.

Petracca's little run of ordinary form has made our midfield look a lot less potent, despite Oliver's efforts and Viney's notable lift in form over the last 4 weeks. Viney just doesn't punch holes the same way Petracca can. Outside that core three it has been a mixed season for the other players who contribute to the midfield with any regularity. It will be an issue when we come up against teams which bat a little deeper for true midfielders, like, dare I say, Carlton when their Cripps/Walsh/Cerra/Hewett engine is operating well. Brayshaw is now doing spectacularly well across half-back, but once Salem fully settles and May comes back, and presumably Rivers steadies his kicking and returns to AFL level, we actually have a pretty rich selection of smart interceptors and rebounders. The place where we most need the special talents kept inside Brayshaw's helmet is right in the middle of the ground. Going both ways - to delay, confuse and repelling the fast counter-attacks which are our greatest weakness defensively, and giving us much smarter movement across half-forward and inside 50. I think an in-form Angus Brayshaw would be just about the best true centreman you could ask for.

North don't look like turning things around. Insert a couple of paragraphs about the sheer variety of ways they are a mess. Meanwhile, Horne-Francis is copping grief from all directions while under all kinds of unreasonable expectations at a club where every reputable leader is on the brink of retirement. He's in serious danger of getting the full Jack Trengove experience. No point waiting six more years to then limp home to Adelaide.

Obviously we are a better than even chance in every remaining game of the season. After the bye with May back, Petty getting some rest on his 19 different bumps and lumps and Gawn getting to take a deep breath and so on, tipping rationally, game by game, would mean tipping no further losses! On the other hand, if we haven't regrouped and refreshed after the bye, our next loss could very likely be our next game, against Brisbane. Our last five games will all be against top 8 teams, and the top of the ladder won't be decided until the final round when we play Brisbane. My overall prediction is a 17-5 final count, first on the ladder regained in the last game, and that the 2022 finals series will be epic for all involved.

We've had all kind of bumps and niggles this year that weren't such an issue last year. Would be very much hoping to smooth them out by August. Throw in the couple of weeks of missed pre-season due to playing all the finals, it all fits with a picture. Also, an intercept mark in defence and a nice clean rebound takes a lot more energy to deal with. That equation has been reversed these last three weeks; instead of making our opponents scramble back to cover the long smart kicks of May & Lever etc, we are having to rush to deal with rebounds up the middle because our opponents are getting a ridiculous number of easy intercept marks. Also, opposition has figured out the way to attack us is going for broke up the middle, which, relies very much on getting a fast, clean rebound 50. In short, I think we are a little less fit than last season but the true issue is still that we aren't getting proper contests at the ball when we are attacking.

Van Rooyen looked a lot like a proper forward a couple of times there. And this game is looking like good early fun. Is there a lot of wind or are we generating our own?

Live broadcast is available on afl website: https://www.afl.com.au/vfl/matches/4258

We should probably take a little heat off Bailey Smith and direct a little more at the Bulldogs. Teenager in predraft interview: "I've got some mental health issues which I sometimes struggle with." Football club: "Great. That'll be really useful for spin later. We'd definitely encourage you to go on a Gold Coast party bender shortly after a bitter disappointment. AFL: Yep, best option left after we stripped back all progress on player welfare resources to cover Covid losses.

Cheer up Mandee. I'm just having a little merry poke at the culture of hypocrisy, prejudice and entitlement that sets the tone of the private school alumni world and routinely costs outsiders all kinds of opportunities. Nothing to get wound up about.

I love that being punched by Campbell Brown is considered a 'prior offence' on May. Not only that, but he is on record as having been punched in the head by Tom Hawkins in a manner for which Hawkins was not culpable, ergo it must have been May's fault. Clear pattern emerging. As for Smith, let's be fair, he did go public discussing his mental health problems long before there was any 'leverage' in it. He even raised it with clubs before he was drafted. But if there's one lesson we should all take, it is another reminder to be wary of those private school types when drafting.

All I'm going to do is reflect on how proud I am that the first source to tell me about the Demon's dinner fiasco was the club itself.

I really think people are just confused because normally a team on a high gets bigger attendances as the fair weather fans jump back on. Doesn't apply to Melbourne because we farewelled our last soft supporters long ago. I'm joking but also serious.

One coached Fleamantle and the other Sidanhee. Even though I was just having a laugh, I may still have to ban myself from posting for a few days, there isn't a forehead-slap gif powerful enough. Jebus Chroist's extruded colon. I've spent at least a decade thinking they were brothers.

The Cairns disaster games which cost us finals in 2020 were against Sydney and Fremantle. Our two losses in the last couple of weeks were also, of course, Sydney and Fremantle. Those four losses to Longmuir-coached clubs account for one half of all our losses since September 2020. Does anyone else want to help with a GOFUNDME for a special Longmuir family vacation? I'm thinking a month-long cruise of the Norwegian Fjords, starting at about the end of August.

My gut feeling agrees. I've having a looking now at who we've played when. Thoughts; This season we've already played 8 games at the 'G. There's no denying that while we were getting the job done we weren't blowing teams away very often. Our two games against opponents in disarray, the Eagles and Kangaroos, were both away from the G, while our two games where we were messed around by disruptions etc were at the G. There may also be an element of coincidental timing - our run to the premiership last year coincided with our forward line getting organised, With Ben Brown and Bailey Fritsch combing for five and a half goals per game in the period after the loss to the Bulldogs in rnd 19, and Pickett adding almost two a game as well. In that period we only played once at the MCG, which was a solid 41 point win. In contrast, our mid-season slump last year (taken as the six games from the loss to Collingwood until the loss against the Dogs) coincided with a large chunk of MCG time. 4 of those 6 games were at the 'G, out of the season total 11 of 25. Outside that slump period in 2021 we only lost one game, by one point, and due to an umpiring error! So, I'm not too worried about the MCG, though I'd prefer if I was 'actively enthusiastic' about our presence at the 'G. What DOES have me worried is the Longmuir family. Since September 2020, half of all losses by the Melbourne Demons have been to a Longmuir.

Such luxury! I have some feeling that way but would like to keep my hopes up that there actually IS a good option out there for the recruiters to pick out. I'm glad someone else went there so I wasn't tempted. We are basically looking for exactly Jesse Hogan but not Jesse Hogan! I've been irritated by Walker for ten years. He's in the 'punchable face' basket for me! Talk of recruiting him just sends my mind to the Fevola to Brisbane zone. That is really well gone up the river for me! Need to assemble a set of options first, but yes, a poll should be added.