Little Goffy

I guess something positive to take from Richmond getting a third it is the reminder that their success has come from a transformation in the lower half of their best 22, not from needing to gather superstars. They've now got a heap of quality players but you don't look at them and go 'wow'. Check their 2019 best and fairest - Dion Prestia 91 Votes Shane Edwards 79 Dylan Grimes 75 Nick Vlastuin 70 Tom Lynch 69 Dustin Martin 67 Bachar Houli 64 Kane Lambert 63 David Astbury 55 Jason Castagna & Daniel Rioli 47 Rance is the only major difference in the previous years, too. For me the most exciting thing about 2021 is that I might get a chance to visit my Mum. With that in mind, it's never a bad time to thank everyone who has done their best to do the right things in 2020. It's been a tough year and could have been a whole lot harder if the local hospitals had been hopelessly overwhelmed as well.

Irony. The AFL designed free agency on the assumption that players only cared about money, and as a result the clubs with the most resources/money are able to get advantage from the nobler sentiments, ambitions and professional pride of the top players. But that's not to take away from Geelong; a well run and well respected club getting rewards for being well run and respected isn't so controversial. The trouble is the other sentiment, that AFL clubs shouldn't be allowed to die. Right now there isn't enough professionalism and respectability available to sustain all 18 at the top level. Imagine if a club run 1980s style tried to compete in 2020s football!

There's an interesting flux going on with what a 'mental health issue' is. It used to be that anything 'mental health' referred to having a problem within yourself that in some way made participating in life or coping with 'ordinary' stress disproportionately difficult. But I would be surprised if anyone said that it was in any way abnormal or deficient or dysfunctional for someone who has just had the year Rhyce Shaw has had to decide that it would be a good idea to take some time without pressure and scrutiny while you got back to appreciating what really matters to you. No doubt, AFL coaching is one of those niches where what is 'normal' is not 'normal' at all!

A much-hyped Naitanui was invited to the 2008 AFL Draft Camp and his results were impressive. He managed to equal the running vertical jump record previously set by Jared Brennan, but fell short of Trent Croad's standing jump record. His sprint, agility and endurance tests were also impressive. Many media commentators believed that Naitanui was in contention to be taken as the number 1 pick in the 2008 AFL Draft.[6] The Melbourne Football Club, who retained that pick, had looked at Naitanui, but raised concerns about his skill level, in particular his kicking, and instead selected Victorian Jack Watts.

Maybe we need a thread for hindsight drafting, where we have to declare who we would take with our picks from at least 8 years ago.

Where's that .gif when you need it?

Experience at losing finals. Richmond - three losses, no wins, a year out, then boom, premiership. Geelong - three losses, two wins, a year out, then boom, premiership. Colonwood - 50/50 in finals, and then 2 losses one win in 2009. Premiership 2010. Port Adelaide - SIX losses, two wins, over three years, then premiership. Sydney - six losses, three wins over seven years, then premiership. West Coast - three elimination final losses in a row, then runner up, then premiership. Bulldogs - eight losses and four wins over ten years, then premiership. Essendon - five losses, three wins, and five losses two wins, ahead of each of their recentish premierships. The only exceptions in recent history are Brisbane (Merger/Salary cap) and Hawthorn (freakshow / tanking draft pick jackpot) Clearly, we got something wrong by winning two finals in our first return to action. Also, Brisbane's 1w 3l is making them look ominous. And put your house on Geelong with 6 wins 12 losses to build from. What's the saying, to win, first you must know how to lose?

Close the thread before someone pulls a muscle rolling their eyes too hard.

Pretty sure that once you consider things three-dimensionally, Gawn's face was safely 1.5 metres away from anyone else. I strongly suspect that Oliver's laughing was also Gawn related. I really doubt there was a single midfielder Brownlow vote at Melbourne that wasn't being counted towards an unofficial tally for the Ruck/Captain. What did he finish with, thirty something? Would easily have beaten Neale if Brownlow votes were counted 'properly'.

I'd add that they also under-invested in developing that pool. Eyes always on the bling at AFL HQ, and the second-tier game and development pathways have been neglected for far too long.

Back to Shaw and North, though... For him personally it is easy to see how you'd be crushed as a new senior coach of a season where the club simply failed to function and it seems like everyone was on blame and attack mode as soon as things got difficult. Add to the the collection of 'we saved the club' coterie types who want a say, the large number of disgruntled ex-players, bloody Covid, and the massive pressure that comes from the ever-present threat of the club actually closing down on your watch... I'm not sure any individual could have achieved much with North Melbourne this season. But what about next season and beyond? Things may be even worse and the thought of the club folding or being merged away is one that has to start lurking in the back of people's minds. They have less talent under 24 years old than we have talent just from the 2019 draft. They need to find a ruck and a key forward, we're seen this season how much their midfield relies on Ziebell and Cunnington, both currently 29, and supported by the likes of Aaron Hall (also 29), Jared Polec (28) and Shaun Higgins (32 and leaving). They have a couple of respectable key defenders but Robbie Tarrant is crucial and, again, is 31. They're delisted 11 players, will lose/trade perhaps four more, and they've recently cut six assistant coaches of all kinds of levels. They've got no financial reserves, the AFL's smallest supporter base which has already been bled pale for extra contributions, dysfunctional club leadership, unhappy players and an old list with not a single potential star coming through among the kids. I hate saying it, but right now it is hard to imagine North Melbourne still operating at AFL level in five years time.

If an AFL player turns up to the Brownlow with their girlfriend, that's coming out? No? Because if an AFL Player turned up to the Brownlow with their boyfriend... So, shall we reword it - "So far, no AFL player has ever felt able to do normal (for an AFL player) relationship things with their partner." There are several gay AFL level footballers and that does included top quality players. There has been for twenty years just that I know of, and who knows how long before that. Ah, it must have been such fun to politely smile along to the 90s Footy Show. Anyway, the only connection to the thread is someone raising it as an example of how much pressure there is in the AFL community to not have any apparent 'vulnerabilities' and how that can lead to silently escalating stress for anyone who feels like they aren't keeping up. Not least, a senior coach of a club that is imploding at every level.

Essendon start negotiations by asking for Curnow. Carlton agree but ask for some loose change late draft picks, as they really value having a mature body in the midfield... I mean, really, Saad for Walsh, Curnow or McKay is like... well, it's like trying to trade a very handy mature player for a young potential superstar.

That's so strange and pointless I'm struggling to believe it. The only justification I can think of is some kind of religious need to play at least in part 'on the MCG'. Or maybe it is fine print in a contract somewhere that says all grand finals will be played on the MCG turf...

Sometimes when you love someone you have to let them do what's best for them, even if it means being apart.

Very much in the 'maybe a fresh start will sort him out' category of players. A trade to the dogs where he'd already know a few people courtesy of VFL time would seem like a good result. Dogs won't be too attached to their pick 12 given it'll be burned for Academy ugleharglebargle. Despite this being a relatively small trade it may end up waiting until our other small trades happen so we can bundle 23 and a bunch of other draft points value burners to get that 12. Everyone is a winner including Mitch.

Officially the most AFL games played without a final. Incredible that he nearly tipped 200 games given the substantial periods of indifferent form, but full credit to him for working his way through each dip and getting back to solid AFL standard. Demonstrated character despite terrible haircuts.

Love the way Jackson keeps upte enthusiasm whenever the ball is near, like an excited puppy. Love Pickett's energy. Love Rivers' composure. Not pretending tbey are instant stars but I have full confidence in their progress. To get a quality 'full career' player at any number in the draft is always good. To get three in one draft is magnificent. It will be fascinating to watch what Taylor does with the 2020 draft. We already had multiple late selections so would already have been looking at the speculative variety. And that's a big group now, especially local. If we don't have any major players traded in, I'd hazard a guess that we may even look to bundle pick 23 and some of the modest trade gains from our departing players and turn it into an additional mid-first round pick for 2021. Final picture; many late picks in 2020, fewer but better selections in 2021.

There's been a lot of talk about how much the Academy and Father-Son selections are going to mess with this draft, so I took a moment assemble a quick list just so the information is handy. (Will add in another post) But what has really struck me about this is how in particular the 5 NGA picks expected to go in the first round, and also the five more expected to go in the second round, will have a very strange warping effect on the draft, disadvantaging at some points but actually offering advantage at others. Example one - You have pick 20. By the time your selection comes around, five separate academy picks have been taken. the clubs with those academy options have burned through all their second round, third round and later picks to get the draft points and effectively jammed that value into the first round. Five additional selections have been made before the draft reaches your pick 20. You are, in effect, taking the 25th selected player in the draft. Example two - You have pick 55. For each one of those first round NGA selections, you get pushed back one because of the insertion, BUT for every pick ahead of 50 which a club 'burns' to get the draft points, you move one ahead in the order. If first-round NGA selections use an average of three other picks (above 55) to 'purchase', then that's fifteen selections gone. As the dust settles after +5 and -15 movement, your pick 55 is now going to be the 45th actual selection in the draft. The effect is of course much less for the NGA/FS players expected to go in the second round as they are more easily 'paid for' by the next available selection with maybe a top-up, but it will still see more picks consumed than selections actually taken. Put another way - A 2020 fourth round draft pick (55-72) is worth almost the same as a 'normal year' third round draft pick (37-54) in terms of how high up the pecking order you actually get to choose a player. A 2020 second round draft pick will be at least 5 draft selections lower in real value than a 'normal year' second round pick. So to get value this year, either get into the top half-dozen selections, ahead of the NGA picks, or bail out and try your hand in the fourth round which is actually the third round!

So, I wonder, do the top teams 'play on the edge' as a secret to their success, or is it more that top teams are given a soft ride by umpires and match review panel so they end up getting dirtier because they know they'll get away with it?

Trivia time. Zac Dawson was named, alongside Lenny Hayes,as St Kilda's "Player of the Finals' in 2010. He was also a pillar of the St Kilda 2009 finals run, as well as being highly regarded in finals at Fremantle, including "Player of the Finals' in 2014. That's Zac Dawson. The unco, dour, skinny, tall defender who 'never looked like it' and who nobody really rated even AFTER he was given these nods. I'm far from writing off Oscar McDonald and people really need to accept that the modern last-line-of-defence player is probably the hardest to judge from outside the club, especially on television. I've said before that I would accept it comfortably if he was traded, but I hate that people talk such rubbish about him, and I wouldn't be troubled at all if he stayed on our list.

Kids are cheap, even when they are good. The last 100-goal season in AFL was by a player who was still on a barely-above-average contract because even he and his management were surprised how quickly he dominated! That same player is now getting around a million a year and struggling to take the field! Contracts are always a chancy business and it's a shame there isn't a clearer, more performance-responsive way to lay them out while still giving players some security. The curse of the Melbourne Football Club has for some time included players who have had a couple of top season, committed to the club on long deals which may not even have been 'overs' given their performance, but then had their output slip significantly. Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham, James Harmes stand out recently, The peak for me was the early-mid 2000s when Travis Johnstone, Adem Yze, Shane Woewodin, Cameron Bruce, Brad Miller, and others all got contracts signed at their best form. It's not as if they all turned to junk - I have a lot of respect for these names - but they were all being paid at the fair rate for their best form, rather than the rate for the form they delivered consistently over the years. And the difficulties it caused are history.

Does anyone have a clip handy of the Cotchin sling-tackle-with-spear-action that can be played next to the Neal-Bullen 4-week suspension tackle? Seriously, we're tackling people by the ears now?

The thing about long contracts is, in any year you don't use you full cap you can push money forward to open up space in future. Carlton have been front-ending deals for a long time and the wake that has built up is significant. Also worth noting that many of the swarm of ex-GWS and other recyxled players would have been on lowish dollars with players hoping to turn their careers around, so the 'risk' for injuries and form problems was on the player. Think Caleb Marchbank - when he gets it together he's a genuine quality tall defender and if he'd been incumbent at a club they might be forced to pay on potential. As it is, he has to prove himself before the dollars come, and he has not proven himself. Put another way - Carlton have many not-quite-right players but they are being paid at that level, too. If you combine the years of front-loading and the many players on lower salaries, it's no surprise they've got cash to burn.

Mixed feelings but I'm leaning towards favorable based on character. He's always struck me as a relatively humble person, which is probably the most important trait of a football director, given how loose the mandate is and how easily it can become a 'let me tell you' role in every part of football operations. (See Glenn Archer) Of course, I'm not on Twitter so I could be missing some serious potatoes.