Adam The God

I'd call $200,000 a year a savage pay cut, but then I'm a filmmaker.

I thought our one last year was good. This is even better. Awesome.

I wasn't sure this quite fitted into any of the currently opened threads and it certainly requires a bit of ongoing analysis. This is not a discussion simply for this week, but for the remaining weeks of the season. It's about measuring improvement and consistency individually and as a team. I know it's still early in the season, but I thought we should discuss the list going forward. Which areas still require the greatest work? Let's break this down into four areas: Backs, Forwards, Mids and Rucks. There is a disclaimer here. There are some areas on our list that require players to gain experience before we can really tell what we're still missing. However, there are other areas on the list that have become obvious decisions. BACKS So our troublesome backline. The area of the ground that people seem to be venting most about. It's interesting that in our leaner times, we seemed flushed for KPDs and now when we are finally seeing an upturn in form, we appear to lack height, skill and strength at the contest and in the air. KPDs T McDonald, O McDonald, L Dunn, C Garland and then maybe S Frost. T McDonald: continues to show his ordinary disposal and decision making. He's a great mark and spoiler, but appears not to understand the zonal defence we're playing. Either that or he's directly disobeying team instructions. From a member of the leadership group, this would be troublesome. O McDonald: too inexperienced to tell yet. Time is on his side. I thought he played a really good first half against GWS and showed he could play at the level, despite some of the negative commentary on him post match. A slightly better kick than his brother and is capable of a good spoil too. L Dunn: a beautiful kick, but an inconsistent experienced player. We should be seeing the consistency from Dunn that we see from Nev Jetta. He doesn't have to be a world-beater, but a role player. He's even inconsistent at this. How long does Dunn have left? C Garland: versatile on his day, he can lock down smalls or talls, but has struggled to really 'own' his position since 2012-2013. He is too timid in defence and this flows onto his inability to provide offence off half back. Without attack he won't last in this team. S Frost: was recruited as KPD, but the club has yet to use him in defence. He has great size and terrific agility for a player of his size. In the long term, the club will be hoping he can hold down a KPD spot and shut down players such as Daniher, T Lynch and Moore. These really agile tall forwards who will rule the game in the coming decade. Unfortunately, Frost still needs to learn the game. I'd be playing him back at the moment, but perhaps they don't want to have to teach him his defensive role and his defensive role within the press at the same time? Sam's still young though and time is on his side. But for mine, that's a lean list. There's question marks over every single one. No wonder everyone is saying go after Hurley. Even if we were to land him (unlikely), looking at this list, he's not going to solve our problems on his own back there. Mid-sized/small defenders N Jetta, J Wagner, J Hunt, C Salem, H Lumumba, B Vince, N Jones, J Trengove, B Stretch, J Melksham, J Grimes, D Terlich N Jetta: this guy is probably the most consistent performer at our club, outside of Jonesy. Not a world beater, but a Paul Roos special - a consistent role player. You know what you'll get from him every week. He's a gem. J Wagner: appears poised and composed under pressure. His kicking is neat and he's not pushed off the ball too easily. He has really surprised me. Like a few others, time is on his side. It'll be interesting to see how he develops throughout 2016. J Hunt: his speed and willingness to take on the game from half back is exciting. Give him 50 more games and he'll iron out some of those decision-making kinks. Has shown he can perform a decent Jared Rivers spoil too. C Salem: not convinced this is his best position. Time will tell. His kicking is a real asset for our half back line though, but he still doesn't get it enough. There are questions over his defensive capabilities, but they can be taught and he's certainly capable of being tough in the contest. A midfield role in the future could beckon. H Lumumba: despite some posters still being down him, Heritier's willingness to take the game on and get us moving from half back is vital to a flourishing Melbourne. Hopefully Hunt can learn a thing or two from him. 'H' isn't a long term solution, but will play another 2 or 3 seasons for us. B Vince: he hasn't proved as effective off half back as I'd hoped, but he certainly has the poise and kicking skills to play a role back there. He might have to get used to it, as positions in the midfield over the next few years will be toughly contested. Bernie's managed to become a pretty consistent player and we need all of those we can get. N Jones: with the reduced rotations I'd be playing Jonesy off half back more than we have. As the younger brigade takes over, like Vince, he'll need to be able to play across half back and half forward too. J Trengove: his best position going forward is half back, IMO. A more efficient Daniel Cross. Setting up the play. A bit Hodge-like. He's a great decision maker, a lovely kick and a good reader of the play. Unfortunately, his leg speed won't be an asset, but I think he brings enough qualities that we lack back there, to find a position in the best 22 going forward. B Stretch: Billy will probably play anywhere between half forward, the wing and half back. If he can strengthen his inside game, he could form part of our midfield group, but my inclination would be to play him off half back. I'd be playing him in Salem's position. He may also challenge Hunt's position back there. Pity he's not a better kick, but it's certainly not a flaw of his. He also has a bit of time on his side. J Melksham: was never a fan of him at Essendon. He could be quite the bunny. His decision making and disposal often leaves a lot to be desired. But he can play really good footy. If Goodwin and McCartney encourage him to bring a consistency to his game, he will have a place going forward. His kicking is questionable though and we really lack good ball users back there. J Grimes: a terrific off field leader, but a very limited on field player. I never quite understood the hype for him. He is fearless at the contest and disciplined, but simply doesn't have the tools to make it at this level. D Terlich: a stopgap player in leaner times. He, like Grimes, makes far too many errors and off half back, no side can carry that. It may be too early to tell on some, but my current fear is that we lack enough really good ball users on the list. Salem, Vince...? MIDFIELD It's funny how things can change so quickly. Whilst you can never rest of your laurels and should always keep building depth and strength to the most important area on your list, our midfield is incredibly exciting. Let's see where we're at in three seasons time when these guys will all have played 50+ games. J Viney, N Jones, B Vince, D Tyson, A Brayshaw, C Oliver, C Petracca, T Bugg, B Kennedy, B Newton, A Vandenberg, M Jones J Viney: Jack (like Jetta, Jones and Vince) has found a consistency in his game and if he continues his 2016 form, we'll have an All Australian and potential Brownlow Medallist by the end of the year. Leads the club in all the key midfield stats and just never stops. The sort of guy we want all our players aspiring to be like. N Jones: as noted, a consistent ball winner. He isn't the most talented guy on the list, but must have a heart as strong as an ox to withstand the rubbish he's been through and thrive in it. B Vince: since crossing from Adelaide, has become one of our two go-to midfielders. Fortunately, with Viney's rise, there is less reliance on Bernie, but his ability to kick crucial goals is an important asset for our midfield group. D Tyson: having just passed 50 games, Dom is one of our midfielders with the biggest upside for mine. A natural ball winner and like Bernie, a goal kicking mid. If he can find consistency he will be an A grader. Bookmark it. A Brayshaw: such a smart footballer. He doesn't need to get it a lot to have a big impact. I would, however, like to see him improve on numbers. His kicking on either side of his body is all class. Usually involved in at least a couple of goals every week he plays. Time is on Gus' side and given experience, he should find more of it and become a really damaging midfielder. C Oliver: the guy I am most excited about on our list. People talk about Petracca getting people in the gates, this guy does it for me. Another natural ball winner (isn't it fantastic that we are drafting natural see-ball-get-ball types now?!), whose spacial awareness is the best I've seen from a young MFC midfielder in my lifetime. He is a freak. If his clearance-winning ability wasn't exciting enough, he is also capable of kicking goals. If we're serious about contending for a flag one day, we need goal kicking mids and we're stockpiling them. C Petracca: looking forward to seeing this guy get going at senior level. I hope he can get through the rest of 2016 and consolidate this next year. An exciting prospect who showed enough in his first outing. Like Viney and Hogan, Truck is another guy who simply hates losing and will tell his team mates about it. He has that explosiveness from stoppages that (dare I say it) reminds me of P Dangerfield and even D Shiel. He could be anything in 50 games time. T Bugg: a role player. Tough, lippy and self-confident. I'm not his biggest fan, but if he can find a suitable level of consistency, there'll be a place for him over the next two seasons. I'd start by tidying up his disposal. B Kennedy: see T Bugg. I'd describe him as a more natural footballer than Bugg and a better user. There's a bit of B McGlynn in Kennedy too. I see Kennedy as a slightly longer term prospect than Bugg, but he still has to find that consistency. B Newton: I'm not sure he'll get another look in at senior level. He's not tough enough at the contest and as of last year, struggled to run both ways. Not a bad goal kicker from midfield, but I'm not sold on him. A Vandenberg: It'll be interesting to see Vanders come back from injury. On his day last season, he was a real barometer of our team - his physicality was really important. We're a tougher side now (even 6 games later) and a few of our guys bring that, so what else does Vanders have? I want to see him improve his kicking, otherwise he won't be more than depth, IMO. M Jones: I've been impressed with Jones' ability to hit targets more regularly and make better decisions. I suspect he's fitter than he's ever been and this has really helped him. He's 29 this year, so he's not a long term solution, but his run at times this season has been important. Another year on the list potentially. FORWARDS KPFs J Hogan, C Dawes, C Pedersen, S Weideman, J Watts, S Frost, L Hulett, M King J Hogan: for a bloke in his second year, he is astounding. Funnily enough, he's been pretty ordinary so far this year, but then he comes out and kicks 7. If Jesse can find some consistency this year, we'll be an even more potent attacking force. Let's wait for that TV deal and then see if we can build our future forwardline around Jesse. C Dawes: offers good leadership and work rate on the field, but marking isn't his strong suit and he doesn't hit the scoreboard enough. At the moment, he might struggle to get a new contract next year. The only reason they'd keep him is to provide depth and competition for the second KPF spot. C Pedersen: is a great mark on his day, has improved his work rate, but still goes missing too often. A solid enough stopgap until Weideman or Hulett comes along though. S Weideman: reads the play well, is a good mark and a nice kick. I'm hoping he forms a Lloyd/Lucas-like partnership with Hogan. He's still two or three seasons away from really being able to impact an AFL contest though. J Watts: has shown he belongs at this level now and he has a spot in our best 22. The most important thing for Jack is to maintain his consistency, otherwise he'll be on the outer again. S Frost: is being played out of position, but still does some clever things that lead to goals and has done so a handful of times this year. I'm willing to concede he should deliver more on game day, but I suspect he's building to it. L Hulett: I've only seen him live once at Casey a couple of weeks ago. He'll be competing with Weideman and Watts for those two positions. I see him as the Weideman/Hogan insurance policy. If Hogan leaves, we've got something to work with - if Weideman doesn't come on, we've got something to work on. M King: I haven't seen Mitch play, so I can't comment. What are people's thoughts? Obviously, another KPF prospect with the ability to play that important second ruck position as well. With Jesse we obviously have a player who we can build a forwardline around. It's the second KPF that we're really in search of. Dawes and Pedersen are stopgaps. You also get the sense Frost is being played forward for his pace and ability to implement an aggressive forward press, rather than traditional KPF traits like contested marking. So along with Watts, who seems to have found his position as the third tall, the hope is Weideman. Hulett and King are insurance plans and depths at this stage, IMO. Mid-sized/small forwards J Harmes, D Kent, J Kennedy-Harris, A Neal-Bullen, J Garlett J Harmes: seems to have ability and neat disposal. His tackling pressure is good when he's on, but if he's going to be more than a fringe player, he needs to develop consistency. He's another Roos role player. D Kent: I haven't been his biggest fan, but he was good against Collingwood, Richmond and for a half against North. He's still too inconsistent. The only reason he's slightly ahead of Harmes is his ability to hit the scoreboard. I liked his work rate against Richmond and he really managed to get himself involved in the play. Let's see if he can find some consistency this year. There's certainly a spot or two there for another pacy, pressurising small forward, with an ability to hit the scoreboard. J Kennedy-Harris: Jay is a neat kick and has nice agility, but at the same time, he's not overly quick and at his height, that will go against him at AFL level. I'm not convinced he'll make it. A Neal-Bullen: Alex obviously has the potential to move into the midfield in time and his numbers at VFL level have been impressive. There's a slight question over his foot speed for mine, but he can find it and what he may not have anaerobically, he makes up for aerobically. He's another who knows where the goals are. I was down at Geelong last year for that terrific win (one of my absolute favourites too!) and he seemed to know where they were whenever he had it. I'd like to see him a bit more at AFL level this year, before making a call. I suspect he'll be another fringe best 22, but he does have the tools to be something more. J Garlett: since his move from Carlton, Jeffy has been a reasonably consistent livewire. He has that x-factor that we lacked for so long. Even in a forwardline with Hogan and now Petracca, Jeffy will still excite us some more over the next four to five seasons. I've also liked his ability to go into the midfield when we've needed it or when he's been struggling to get into the game in the forwardline. Unfortunately, it didn't seem to work against St Kilda, but I think he'll bounce back this week. When you break down the list of small/medium forwards, you realise we're actually quite light on in this area as well. More competition in this area of the ground certainly wouldn't go astray. RUCKS This is probably an area on our list that we will again look to address at the end of 2016. We are distinctly light on for rucks. When you look at a side like Geelong over the past few years, they had five or six really promising ruckmen on their senior list. However, probably the best place for developing ruckmen is the rookie list. M Gawn, J Spencer, M King M Gawn: Max has found a level of consistency that has elevated him into the top echelon of league ruckmen. His marking around the ground has also improved out of sight. It will be interesting to see how he develops with another 22 games under his belt this year. J Spencer: much maligned is 'Big Jake', but if he can improve his kicking and tap work, I reckon he'll be a solid back up to Maxy for a few years. M King: having not seen him play, there is certainly a spot gaping for that ruck/forward position, alongside Hogan and hopefully Weideman. FINAL THOUGHTS Having run through the entire senior list, it seems to me that within a year, we may well have two different KPDs playing in our backline. What of McDonald? Can we lure Hurley? Does Frost go back? Where does OMac sit? There are also a number of question marks over our smaller/mid-sized defenders and their foot skills. We need elite ball users back there, particularly with our game style. Do we draft them in/hit the FA market hard or will a few of the blokes we already have come good? The midfield is probably the most exciting area of the ground for me. In just three off seasons, Taylor, Roos and Mahoney have transformed our midfield from third world to B grade, with A grade potential. Add a Prestia and/or a Neale at the end of 2016 and we're looking very good. Remember that West Coast side that won the flag with an ordinary forwardline, but gun midfield? Yeah, well, it all happens in the midfield. Now I say it all happens in the midfield and it does, but imagine also having a once in a generation CHF. Well, tick. If we can find the right mix inside forward fifty to compliment Hogan, we become very dangerous. The next step is getting the team defence right, because obviously that will help out our defenders no end. So 2016 is clearly the testing ground for Goodwin's aggressive 18 man press. The coaching staff will implement this stridently and seemingly without exception - that means don't expect a lot of moves on game day and expect further frustration, until our players get this system right. With this coaching philosophy, Roos can take the heat when it goes bad and come the start of 2017, we'll have had a season working on this team defence and hopefully be ready to take on September.

The press is about the chain of numbers though. If the opposition works hard and uses the ball efficiently, they will eventually get it to a spare player in space. As another poster said, the press is all or nothing.

I'm convinced they want the players to work through the game, sticking to the original system rain, hail or shine. That spells frustration for supporters in the short term, but hopefully pays dividends in the end. The longer our players play this system, the sooner we'll know if they can. And as Steve and rpfc suggest, if some of these guys can't play the system that our coaches believe will win a flag in the long run, they will be replaced with someone who can. It'll be fascinating to see who we target outside of KPPs and mids this off season. I think Jetta is a lock. Wagner and Hunt look the goods. Lumumba is important when his team mates are working for him. My concern is outside of those guys we have very little defensive depth. I believe Salem will ultimately move up the ground, so who else will be targeted to put pressure on these guys? I keep returning to the Hawthorn blue print. They never needed the tallest defenders, they played distinctly mid sized defenders across the board, but their system made each of them look impregnable. In short, we have to give this system some time. Some players will get it and others won't, and will therefore be replaced.

Paging some of the comments in the Michael Hurley thread. Interesting. Thanks for the info, LT.

Reds fan, but very happy for Leicester and always really liked Ranieri. Thought he was hard done by at Chelsea. Amazing stuff. There's not really an apt AFL equivalent due to the lack of a salary cap, but the Leceister team is about $30 million. The Man Utd team they played on Sunday night was worth $300 million. Salary caps aside, this'd be like a VFL side winning the AFL flag.

Agreed. But if we do get to the 12 game mark, judging by the tightness of the competition this year, that could get us in. And don't worry, I'm with you, we'll certainly have games that we lose where those younger players will run out of gas and our 'leaders' will fail to stand up.

I go every week, mate. I go to all the Melbourne-based matches. I'm going to Sydney next month and I always go to Geelong. I don't like others mocking my football club, but there's a line where as a supporter you can demand more. My experience of your posts, either directed at me or others, is that any questioning of the club is an affront to you. Pointing out weaknesses and things we could improve on doesn't necessarily translate to doom and gloom. As for expressing your disappointment to the club and players directly, that's why I go to the games. I let them know too. Over the fence. I also couldn't care if I was identified publicly, but you wear that pride with such disdain for others that it gets tiresome. And I think you 'baiting' posters is you hiding behind your keyboard. It's either trolling or you don't understand there are shades of grey.

Realistic, but I reckon we might give them both a run for their money. You could argue the Dogs are hamstrung (pun intended) by injuries as well. As someone else mentioned, I'd say we're more likely to win the next two and then get run off our feet by a quicker Brisbane team. We're very much on track for finals if we can win 2 of the next 3 though.

Lol. A small vocal majority? Well, what is it? A small number of us or is it a majority? And the above post is drowning in irony. People vent. That's footy. Most on Demonland are capable of seeing the grey, rather than only the black and white. Unfortunately though, Saty, you're not one of them. You're stridently pro-Melbourne everything, to the point that no one within/attached to the club can be questioned, and this view is one I would equally describe as 'shallow'.

But I love the new OD, so don't stop the positivity.

Or they might try and back their system in again. They seemed to do that against St Kilda.

Jack Viney.

Are we serious here? What an equally arrogant and defeatist attitude.

There's some horrible stuff in here and there's no "fair argument" to suggest we've regressed at all. This post shows a complete lack of understanding for development at an AFL level. You don't just suddenly flick the offensive switch and expect the defensive part of your game to remain the same. If we'd been working on the 18 man press and zonal defence for a year already and this is where we were, then there would be cause for concern. However, we're six weeks into this process and you're bound to see some growing pains.

Yeah, not really.

Do we even need teams in WA? Maybe we can just scrap Freo and Methy? Anyway, I take it, of course, that Neale is on his way to the MFC.

Thought it was 2004. I was correct. I just checked. We actually won by 10 goals. Also noted that there were 54,409 attend a game at the MCG between Melbourne and St Kilda. Funny that.

A full rebuild should not take 8 years either...

I'd disagree slightly. I reckon if we can nab two A grade mids, we'll be fine for KPD. Hawthorn played small down back for years and still managed. Even Lake wasn't that big. When your defenders work together and your midfielders and forwards apply relentless pressure, you make your defenders look so much better than they would otherwise. For example, if your defenders are left one-on-one and the opposition has unpressured disposal inside forward 50, those defenders will be made to look very ordinary. As for a ruckman, I'll be interested to see how Spencer goes this year. I rate him and I reckon under the continued guidance of Stafford could become an important back up or foil for Max. Tommy Mac playing in the ruck? Not for mine.

I'm just not sure you can carry a bloke who does not have licence to create, otherwise you run the risk of being too predictable. And in the same moment, I'm not sure McDonald is completely capable of doing it consistently. We shall see.

Well, as others have pointed out, it wouldn't be a trade, but I'd certainly consider Hurley. Mind you, only for a reasonable price ($600k-700k), because we've gotta be careful with all our young gun mids. For the record, I doubt we'd get him for $600k or even $700k, unless Goodwin and McCartney pulled a rabbit out of their hat.

Would love to know what the FD thinks of McDonald's development at the moment. He's a bloke who's played 88 games now. At the top of last year he looked to be in terrific form. He'd cut down his errors and appeared to be sticking to his limitations. His season then ran off the tracks a bit, as did our whole team's. What does that say about the importance of him to our team, but also the importance of those players in front of him bringing the required work rate to make his job easier? I suspect they'd say he's still only young, not necessarily in a games sense, but in footballing terms. 23 years old for KPD is still very young. It will also take him time to adjust to the new defensive zone - when should he fill space/take an opponent and when should he attack. His decision making wouldn't have been improved by our more risk-taking game style, as he often finds himself in a situation where he feels he needs to bite off more than he can chew. So the question will eventually be asked. Does McDonald fit into this system? The other element of all this is the players around him. If you look at Hawthorn's defensive unit, none of them are brilliant one-on-one, but their understanding of each other and the roles they each play cannot be questioned. At Melbourne this season, there have been times where McDonald's kicking has looked really, really solid. But is this because his team mates have been working hard enough to give him a clear option, that minimises the potential of a turn over and makes that kick or handball a lot easier to manage? Or is McDonald simply too inconsistent with his disposal and no matter how hard his team mates work, he'll always have the propensity to turn it over and cost us goals? If the latter is true, I can't see him holding down a KD position in the future. But I suspect the FD feels the former is true and that with time, Tommy Mac will grow into this system, make solid decisions, know where his team mates are and become a defensive lynchpin. McDonald's turn overs have always frustrated me, but throughout Roos' tenure, I've had Tommy marked down as a certainty in a future best 22. However, his form at the back end of last year and already in 2016 is far too inconsistent and if it continues this way, I wouldn't be adversed to the club floating him for trade at the end of 2017. This therefore opens up another fascinating subplot to watch unfold this year. Injury-permitting, he'll play his 100th this year. But can Tommy iron out the flaws in his game and become a consistent player? If he does, we'll play finals. I have no doubt. If he doesn't, there will be a number of question marks floating above our preferred back 6 for 2017.

Not excusing Tyson here, but he was injured for a good portion of his GWS spell. He's only just played 50 games. This St Kilda loss was another that I put down to growing pains with the new footballing systems we have in place. The 18 man press will take time to learn sufficiently. Hopefully, they learn a lot from Saturday in that when things are going against them, they must react in this way. If the coaches are doing their jobs, they will point out how and why we failed.