Fat Tony

Grundy was very impressed by the MFC presentation this week according to Sam Edmond on SEN.

Our form has been very good despite losing 2/3. They won’t get near us if we can go up another level, which is what I expect.

Personally I would like to see us include Harmes this week and rotate the sub through players like Sparrow, Jordon, ANB and Spargo. I think we would get a boost from these players being fresh and I don't think it would make a difference to our probability of winning.

Tom McDonald is a pretty good back up ruckman. I think Jackson is a unique player to replace and I think we would be better off trying to replace/supersede his ability as a forward rather than worrying about the ruck. If Max goes down for a long period around finals, we won't win the flag no matter how much insurance we carry. I think Grundy at $700k per year is a ok value, but he doesn't fit that well and we can put that money to a forward who makes us much better. Gunstan would make us better and cost similar for less years.

I think that Cripps was going for the ball when he took off but he also would have been pretty sure he was going to collide with Ah Chee when he launched. I can also make an argument that Cripps was trying to take the ball on his chest prior the time of impact. My main gripe is that he only got off because he is a star player in Brownlow contention. Anyway, we will still touch them up if we play anywhere near our best footy.

The Cripps incident was similar to this one.

I can live with Cripps action not being worthy of suspension. I can’t accept there being a different set of rules for star players than the rest of the competition.

One of the stats I would like to see is a metric which accounts the number of attacking and defending players inside 50 for each entry. The most valuable inside 50 is one with attacking players and no defenders, while an inside 50 with 17 vs 17 is much less valuable. This combined with expected score for each shot at goal are the most crucial stats in football IMO.

Both can be right though. Grundy plays best as a solo ruckman and we have Gawn on our list. Geelong don't currently have the same talent in the ruck. He would make them a lot better and might make us worse.

Can we please include the game time and venue on the first post werridee?

I think Goldstein is a much lower risk recruit. He is a better forward than Grundy and not on a ridiculous contract. Jack Silvani would be another option to go for to play second ruck. Getting dropped to sub showed he wasn’t considered to be in the best 22.

Grundy played his best football as a solo ruckman. Not sure he really compliments Gawn and he would cost a fair chunk of cap space even if the Pies pay a large percentage of his wages.

It was actually 15.4 with 2 rushed.

This is the issue with the penalty being so contingent on the outcome. It would be a travesty if Petracca or Oliver miss a grand final for such an incident where a player gets accidently concussed. My view is that Cripps left the ground to contest the ball but was late and braced and bumped Ah Chee. I am not saying Cripps was blameless but IMO some of the intentional punching to the body is more worthy of suspension.

Not sure it’s a balance in defence issue. The Dogs and Pies just kicked very straight and JUL and Johnson are both up and coming stars who held their marks. I am more worried about our inability to connect the midfield and forward line.

Luck goes in swings and roundabouts. We had plenty of luck with injuries last year. This year, we have lost 5 games when the footy gods have been against us. The other thing about luck is it is not predictable. Hopefully we are lucky again in September when it really counts.

3 weeks would be better if we get them in the first week of the finals.

Jackson is out of contract. Naughton is not.

Why would the Dogs trade Naughton? Sounds fanciful.

Jackson is much more likely to win one on ones or take contested marks inside 50 than Brown. He plays higher up the ground, in part, due to Brown being in the side.

Further to this, we need to target Jackson inside 50 more often. He is our best contested mark other than Gawn.

Perth is 11m narrower than MCG. My view is that the forward line needs surgery and we can’t have as many pressure valves. Playing Fritsch and Brown or Weideman only works if the midfield supply is precise.

I am thinking we need to rejig our set up to maximise our chances of winning the flag. I think our MCG problem is still alive and it only really went away when we played a smaller more mobile forward line at the start of last year. The wins at the start of this season were against lower sides and we are now getting a bit found out with better opposition. (Playing finals in Adelaide and Perth actually suited us and helped us win the flag IMO.) With TMac still injured, the best solution is to have Petty replace Brown as full forward and Tomlinson come back into defence. (Turner is also an option.) Van Rooyen is not ready to be the sole key target at AFL level, albeit he could come in to replace Melksham. I am 50/50 on this, as it usually takes time to adjust to AFL level. Petty played five games as a forward in 2019 and was very promising, averaging 1.2 goals, 1.2 contested marks, 11 pressure acts and 3 tackles. In contrast, Brown’s 2022 averages are 1.7 goals, 1.3 contested marks, 6.2 pressure acts and 0.6 tackles. So, the Petty for Brown move potentially reduces goal scoring and finishing but brings greater forward pressure and similar contested marking. Harmes should come back in for Spargo or ANB, who is out of form.

I think Melksham is not a great tackler or chaser but he is clever in positioning himself to stop the intercept marker. We really need him to be an elite finisher if we play him because he does not offer much otherwise.