Dappa Dan

Now before you all go getting prickly... I know it's very early, but I was wondering: I don't know about anyone else, but I've spent more time in the "drafting and trading" section of demonland than anywhere else recently. In fact, I don't think I've ever visited it before. I was kind of hoping some of the plethora of people who do copious amounts of homework on upcoming drafts might be able to lend us their knowledge for a second or two. Seems to me Rich and Hurley were known about LONG before they were drafted, and were always going to be in the first handful, even going on LAST years TAC cup. Perhaps some of you guys, Freak, Dazzledavey, WJ, H I'm looking at you... might have an anecdote or two to share about next year? Maybe a bit of long-range prediction or inside goss? It's never too early to get excited about our future, and I reckon next year will be the last of our big recruiting drives before we settle on a solid core of 30-odd names, with only a few recruits each year following 2009, rather than the 7 or 8 we've been seeing the last couple of drafts. I've had a little poke around and seen three names spoken about highly... My two picks would be the obvious ones... Butcher and Scully. Butcher is a big KP forward. And Scully is a ripping little Simon Black type that runs and runs, is quick, but has a handball that to watch, is like football porn... (a term coined over at 'ology) Anyhoo... Have at it... and if mods feel the need, delete this thread and replace it with a more substantial title, maybe as a sticky that people can add to as the first half of the year progresses.

Yeah... I hear them say in a few articles that they'd have liked Johnston, or Shoenmakers etc etc... BTW sorry to those who bothered to read that last post. Got a bit carried away... again...

Oh really? Well there you go... Shows how much homework I need to do. I actually loved it when Byron came to the club and the "brothers" played together... they looked dangerous... for about five minutes. That's why I kind of get prickly whenever anyone uses the term to describe a group of 3-6 indigenous players... It didn't count for much last time.

That's actually not a bad post.... however I don't agree with some of it. My point was that up both ends it's not enough to have just 1 good KP player and then a host of rotations. It's ok if your second KP player is not as good as the first, as long as they have bulk time to get used to each others' company... Carroll and Holland were two of the more average stay-at-home defenders our club has seen, and working together they did some pretty impressive things in their day. So going on your above post... I don't rate either of the Bulldogs or the Saints. They're missing the players you suggested they're missing and I think you kind of reinforced my point. - I consider the Saints to be the luckiest of the "other" five teams in the 8. They've recruited well and could well give it a shake next season, but last they were never a threat, certainly not with Hudgton and McGuire in the shape they're in. - The dogs play a brand of footy no-one can touch on their day. But their lack of decent talls is precisely what keeps them away from the big two. - As for the Hawks, who needs key defenders when their small defenders play season like the ones Sewell, Hodge and Campbell did? And I could handle opposition forwards running a bit riot as long as I had Buddy running even more riot up the other end. This example shows a hole in my theory because of the fact their small defenders, and the sheer brilliance of their forwards effectively meant they didn't need a tall defence. - Geelong? I wouldn't say Mooney is average. Nor Ottens. Plus their defence is chock full of class. Has been for a looong time. Now here's a couple of examples of teams that prove my point... - Essendon... Not one of those guys you suggested is anywhere near stardom anymore. Lucas is probably the closest. Lloyd, Fletcher and Michael have had it... and Ryder isn't there yet. I would be depressed if I was a dons supporter. - Carlton. They have the best FF going around at the moment... and the best FF of the past few years given he plays so close to the square compared to his counterparts, like Franklin and Brown who play further from goal. He kicks 80 a year and his team is still no-where near it. Why? Well... because they have heaps of holes (or HAD them anyway), but also because Waite just aint a forward's pinky toe. - Fremantle. Pavlich. Need I say more? - Collingwood. I don't rate them... but even an old fart like Rocca, working in tandem with a hot and cold Cloke look more dangerous than a single star forward. They keep making the finals, and people keep wondering why? Like I said. Good post. For the record I will say our defence's future does look brighter than it has in years. In fact we've always sort of cobbled together our defence out of a mishmash of NQRs. Our forward line, in that time, is where we threw all our big eggs. Why am I pleased with our defence? Because I have a lot of confidence in the Rivers/Garland combination... and what they lack in size is made up for by the fact that we're getting game time into a bunch of other guys that could succeed where they fail. If you can't recruit Hurley, then recruit Martin, Warnock and Frawley... at least one of them should come on. In another attempt to illustrate my point. The last big recruiting drive we went on netted us two of the best KP players this club has seen... even going back as far as the fox and a certain FF who still holds the record for goals kicked in a match. Schwartz and Neitz were great players... one didn't reach the heights he could have because of injury, the other, because he was played out of position basically his whole career. And EVEN THOUGH both guys had a laundry list of setbacks, like average coaching, off field imbalance, and only a sprinkling of good injury prone midfielders and good but soft ones (Stinga, Yze)... we still made finals as much as just about anyone in those players' time. So what does this tell us? Well I think everyone would read that period in our history their own way... that leaves a lot of room for interpretation... Does it suggest that champion KP players and a bit of luck are the best solution? Does it suggest that no matter how good your talls are without a good midfield you're basically nailing sh%# to a wall? For my part, I just reckon the FIRST thing you do when starting from scratch (and make no mistake that is what we have been doing since Neale's departure) is recruit your spine. I believe that's the club's intention... So how do we recruit the next Schwartz/Neitz combination? I guess you have to take best possible KP two drafts running, then cross your fingers. Watts at this stage is part one, perhaps Butcher is part two? Then saturate your list with potential KP players and hope two of them become solid AFL players in defence or swinging from one to the other... Good examples here are Bate, Dunn, Newton... and those guys have not become KP players for a wide variety of reasons... You then blood your midfield for a couple of years... and Bob's your father's brother. Everyone, ideally, matures at the same time... and from there you don't have to recruit to fill your list, with 7 players every draft. You just recruit for your needs, trading your later picks to ensure you only get quality. Long story short... People are always saying of players "that's a guy you can build a forward line/defence around." Other than Watts, none of the players we drafted this year, besides maybe Strauss as a 120 minute midfielder, offer that kind of natural structural solidity. The new players will excite, and will be good I would think... but to what end? We will only climb so far up the ladder, and weaken our chance of getting another Watts in the next draft, or even another Ablett/Judd. It's all about the timing... constructing a premiership team, coming from where we're coming from, is a delicate, 5 year-long operation IMO... and in that time I would hope the footy department would be looking at recruiting a dynasty we can invest in, supporters can be gained with, and sponsors can throw money at over a space of 5-10 years... not a squad that'll juuust scrape in to a GF like last time, and dissapate, retire or ask for a trade as soon as they're done.

I think that played a part certainly... but it didn't look, according to the Quayles and Sheahans of the world that we were ever n the market for him. Perhaps we only had a passing interest, and then his injury just made them put a line through his name before they even started. I can see how the view might be that this isn't the time to take risks with your list. Maybe if we had a full squad of mature players, plus a decent spine + backups, then maybe you take a speculative one that could become a damaging player.... but not when you're constructing a list and don't even have reliability yet. I think the point regarding Jetta and Bennell is a bit moot. Every club (except Dogs, at last glance) has indiginous boys playing for them. Why would ours be any more welcoming than them? Didn't work for Danny Hayes. On Bail, yes, he seems to be chock full of heart. Which is a great place to start... but I'm also excited by how serious and professional Blease and Strauss are. That's Watts, Blease, Strauss and Bail that look like serious tryers even before they've set foot at the club. That's not to say Bennell and Jetta aren't serious... but I've not seen much about either... Only Jetta who seems to like the rough stuff.

Have had a closer look at this guy. Was a bit frustrated at first, for the simple reason that I'm a supporter and want to see spectacular goals, marks and tackles when I watch the videos of our newest recruits... but once I told the 13 year old in me to sit down and shut up for a second I've come to realise what all the hype is about. He may not be dominant in the sense that the Judds, Hodges and Abletts of the world are through the midfield... but unlike so many other mids taken around this point, he doesn't appear to have a glaring weakness in his game. Many good players come through with searing pace, but a small body... or an amazingly accurate kick, but no marking ability... or they're incredibly strong physically but let you down time and time again with their kicking, making you cringe every time they get it and have time to set themselves. This kid doesn't tear the match to shreds with scintillating runs, goals or telling contested marks.... but probably the most pleasing thing is that I can't see a fault to his game. He's not injury prone, he kicks sensationally both sides of the body, has a quick and accurate set of hands, wonderful vision in the clinches, a VERY good turn of pace, and good vision for setting things up and spotting a lead, which is very pleasing in one so young. I won't say he'll slot straight in, because he's still young... but there's no reason why he can't start out a very good player, then turn into one who takes games on. Someone who gives you 20 touches more often than not, of which the majority are effective or to avantage is exactly what the club needs. It puts pressure on the opposition, freeing up our more damaging players to stretch their arms a bit. When we finally get our core of 10-15 blokes, of which 6 have to be stars, I think this guy will float in and out of the 6... depending only on how and where his coach plays him, how his injures pan out, and how the rest of the side is constructed. He's only one piece of the puzzle, but for a pick 19 I'm not sure you can really expect much more. We could have taken a risk, but 9 times out of ten you take a sure thing... and I reckon this kid is as close to that as you'll ever find around pick 20.

They're not dropping Bate unless absolutely necessary. He may not be your normal Brown/Tredrea/Riewoldt type KP forward, but the guy is hugely important t our next 5 years.

Read that today... seems delisting Carroll is a gutsy move that could have backfired a little had he been picked up. The club could have been vulnerable to a bit of criticism for how they handled it... But in the end we have Bail and Jetta instead of Carroll and CJ, who were both negative influences, it has become clear. Plenty to be happy with as a supporter, member, fan, sponsor etc etc

Cheney is 184cm, McNamara has proven nothing as yet (not writing him off, but facts are facts), everyone seems to love Martin but he's only played a handful of games and is not a great kick, Warnock is not ever going to be a star defender... just a more serviceable Carroll (with pace), Frawley has question marks, Rivers' body is a worry... Garland is the only one I have supreme faith in and I reckon his future is forward what with his right boot and all. If we had, say, Hurley (who I rate ENORMOUSLY) and Garland making up our KP backline... THAT would be exciting because we could rotate a bunch of guys who've shown something back there... including PJ who I've seen do good work on the 50 metre line. As it is though we have a few ok names there, but no-one you have set in stone, which I think every defence (or at least every PREMIERSHIP defence) needs. Same goes for our forward line. I can't imagine ever being more excited about a recruit than I am about Watts... but he's only human. He's going to need a foil or two of quality. Hawthorn's forward line wouldn't be as scary without Williams and Roughie... Brisbane's wouldn't be as scary if Brown didn't have Bradshaw... going back a couple of years it was the Saints with Reiwoldt and Gehrig... Sydney have Hall and O'Loughlin...

After 4 rounds of the NAB cup, you would assume that if Bail goes ok he could step right in. He's got the body. As for the others I'm certain Strauss and Blease will get a taste in the season just so they know what they're in for, but expect a Garland-like debut from all of them. Watts is the interesting one. He has the skill to walk into a team and play 2 quarters... do a few good things and keep his place. But only if there's a free spot on the wing or flank that no mature player has earned. I can see Jack playing a bit in the NAB cup, and if his skill level rises to the surface, DB will have no reason NOT to play him round 1. It's not like we're swimming in players. And it worked for Morton didn't it? As for the side itself... This isn't going to be a popular sentiment, but I hope DB stays true to what he claimed he's going to do, which is keep the kids largely out of the side and give them a year to develop their bodies. The reason being that we NEED to play Bell, Bartram, Dunn, Jamar and Sylvia. Why? Because winning 8 games instead of 4 gets us nowhere... but MOST importantly you would assume one of those names, and if we're lucky 2 or 3 will have really good seasons... I've always had a soft spot for Belly, but our defence is taking shape now, and he's not part of it. If he can smash a few good opponents, the recruiters and coaches of those clubs might see his market-value raise. If we could nick another pick in the teens, in a trade for say a pick in the 30s and Bell.... then that would be sensational. The only problem is how the GC thing works. We may be trying to deal with them for that pick in the teens... And none of those players being from up north would be a factor you'd think. Also, I'm not sure if GC first year in the comp will be 2010.

Another superannuation case? Aren't we past picking up other clubs' junk?

They say Jacky boy won't play next year, but I reckon he'll make a quick debut... If you watch the video, you'd notice that he could VERY easily come straight in and make enough of an impact to keep his spot. All he'd need to do is play 50-75% game time, pick up 12-15 possessions on a wing... or even less if he's playing out of a pocket. And most of all, the way the kid moves and marks, he could walk into the AFL and account well for himself in the clinches. No-one would be expecting him to dominate playing on, say, Scarlett out of the square, but DB wouldn't be stupid enough to play him there, surely. Look at players like Palmer, Murphy and countless other solid midfielders who come in in their first or second seasons and not only account well for themselves but even manage to have a big say on their team's results. Blease is another player who could come in, and with his skillset, pick up a lot of possessions flying under the radar. Watts could be played in a number of positions with his pace, agility, marking ability and kick... I'm looking forward to the day. His first possession... and crowd reaction. In Jack we trust.

I reckon the worst thing would be for us to lose out on another draft pick. CJ is their problem now. No reason to throw out the baby with the bathwater. You'll find mercenaries like CJ are forgotten very quickly.

Of course. But there are things we can glean from the selections that we don't need 3 years of development to understand. That is that these guys aren't too large. Actually the truth around their selections was a bit more interesting than that. The Hawks powers-that-be have gone on record to claim that Roughead and Franklin were the only couple of KP forwards coming through the system that they thought were any good for the coming couple of drafts. They believed by taking both that they'd effectively have a monopoly on the up and coming talls. To some extent that's proven true. After that they had a couple of established mids, and they went nuts the following year looking at all sorts of different mid sized players... while at the same time they have recruited another, ready-made set of KP players with guys like Shoenmakers this year and Thorp a couple of years ago. My point still stands though. It's around their KP players that they've done well. That's not to say they DON'T have a solid 22 outside of those guys, but without Franklin and Roughie, they would have gotten nowhere near the GF. McKernan. I rated him pretty highly. I would have loved him and Blease for example. I rated Swift extremely highly and believed he was worth the risk, but at the same time I like that we don't have yet another injury prone player, so part of me is relieved. Oh, and I thought Trengove was worth a look. Maybe Lisle. I take your point about recruiting KP players later in the draft, but I believe that ruckmen are revealed as good players far later in their careers. Very few Everitts out there. And likewise taller players take time to really evolve and be revealed as good or great. Many have come from relatively modest beginnings and carved out great careers and likewise some have gone the other way due to attitude or injury. In other words KP players are more speculative and as such I prefer to see them drafted lower, unless they're of Watts' calibre. So I reckon 1-10 have to be all the best available talent whatever they are... picks in the teens have to be speculative KP players, utilities, kids with suspect bodies, and later picks are for needs/outside mids/ruckmen. That applies to rookies too, the ruckmen thing. True, and this makes me happy. But there again, by the time these guys come on how old will McLean and co be? Actually forget them... how old will I be?!!! See above... The point I'm trying to make here actually has more to do with how I rate our current list. As with most sides we actually have a compliment of each type of player. My problem is with the quality of those players. We're a long way from being competitive, let alone dangerous, let alone a flag chance. To name but a few: Dunn hasn't even looked like KP material, Bate is roaming far and wide, Miller is working a bit better but is still blue collar, Newton is miles off... Watts is probably the one I'm most excited about and he's been a demon for about a day... and I'm not even completely sure he'll end up a classic FF or CHF. We got a lot of outside players this draft... which means we have guys like Jones, McLean, Moloney and Grimes extracting the ball and guys like Morton, Blease, Strauss and Davey delivering it... That's 8 names. Geelong has all that covered with about 4. Now I'm not naive enough to think we'll reruit the next Ablett or Judd... but I am conscious of the fact that none of those players at this stage seem like the type that could become that kind of contested ball winner with pace... So if THAT'S what we're faced with on the draft table, I'd rather we go for a spine... even one that's a notch or two below the best spines in the league, before we recruit the future of our midfield. It's just my theory, and I don't mean to be negative... I'm sure Blease and Strauss will be serviceable... maybe better than serviceable. But that kind of silky outsider is the last piece of the puzzle IMO. KP players, good in and unders, and good all-round mids are harder to come by AND develop, and they certainly never come up for trade unless there's something significant wrong with them... Don't get me wrong, these are good selections... I was just hoping, as with every group of supporters, that we'd get inspiration. In the end I think there's a great possibility that there were two inspired choices in this draft. One was Watts over Naita, the other was avoiding the temptation to select injury prone footballers. This post has gotten oversized. I'll continue in more detail if asked, but for now, I think I've bored enough people.

Neitz was more of a CHF than a FF, though the arguement of where he played most of his footy will always make the issue a grey one. And it all depends on your definition of champion. Of the MFC? Of the AFL? Of modern footy? Personally... and this is my opinion... I reckon he was a potentially great CHF who was played deeper. Due to his commitments and the need arising, he was played in 3 positions, diluting his influence in any one. So a champion of modern footy and the MFC he was, but there'll always be guys who'll get that tag of "AFL champion" over him. And that's ok. Says a lot about him that he was all about MFC, not his own reputation. I'd have changed nothing about him, or his career... only some of the players he had around him. Back on the numbers. Is it customary to temporarily retire a number for a season out of respect? Is that why people have neglected number 9? If not I reckon it'd be a great nod to him to give it to Jack Watts... also there could be a rather ceremonious big deal made out about it when the jumper presentation happens where Neita can hand it over... Worth considering.

Fills the gaping hole left by Hayes...

I have one word for you.... Martin. We took a young kind in the PSD, who was a bit older than your average rookie or fresh recruit. Seems to have worked out ok so far. Rollo (I think) made a good point a few weeks ago. I reckon the club should be given the opportunity to trade their PSD picks. We're not in the market for mature age players, and other clubs are, such as the Hawks, Brisbane, Saints and Pies who are doing ok and looking to top up. We could have traded a player and PSD pick #1 for, say, a pick in the teens. Or in the early twenties... Would have made a big impact in our side.

????? Bring in the what now? I must have missed something.

Have a close look at your avatar... then have a close look at Jaded's... Same guy isn't it?!!!

I've gotta say I'm going with the 'ologists here... If the Hawks model is anything to go on, you draft your spine, and talls first. Give them a couple of years to develop while you recruit the mids and flankers that we all know develop quicker. You don't do it the other way around... otherwise you end up with Sylvia and McLean both 28 before your new recruits come of age. It could still work of course, next years draft could contain ANOTHER KP forward and maybe a ruckman... followed by perhaps another KP defender should the need arise in the late teens... And things would even out a bit. I'm excited about Jetta for where we got him, and obviously Watts is enough food on your plate for any one draft... but I would have liked it if we'd gone with another real name, like Swift with our second or third. Blease seems ok without being devastating... and he's tiny... and Strauss seems like a good ordinary player to me. It's VERY early days, but neither look like they are in the embryonic stages of being out and out stars... I'm not ALL that pumped about these selections. But then at 17 and 19 maybe I was never going to be? At least these players look like the type that DB needs to fit into his gameplan...

CJ leaves, Bell is saved. That's pretty much what happened.

Yeah, apparently he goes over his Dad's notes (he was his coach) every time he plays.

VERY surprised. I was on at one point and only saw 8 people on... Good stuff though. I reckon round 1 of the NAB will give it a run for it's money.

Everyone we get in the PSD, if not mature age, will be a risk. We went safe with every pick... all midfielders, small forwards and backmen... Sibosado would probably be VERY speculative, but at least there's upside.

I'm more excited about our pick 51 than 17 and 19... This draft was touted as the big KP draft, and we picked up one spine player, plus one standard sized mid and a couple of tiiiiny little blokes. I have an awful feeling we drafted Blease and Strauss because we need pace and kicking skill. I think the Swift thing will hurt us too.