Vipercrunch

I have no doubt if we prepare well now and aren't hit too hard by injuries, we can win from outside the top 4.

I think any deviation away from the 4 week cycle shown so perfectly in the graph posted by @BW511would be a compromise to the overall outcome. That doesn't mean any deviation could be perfectly justified as there is always so much going in within clubs.

Very nasty and not very pleasant viewing. He's a good kid too 😞

I think the shorter preseason would have meant we worked a little harder on the track over the early H&A season period compared to 2021, but I think the main two cycles we want to get in will be the same. One 4 or 5 week cycle before the bye, use the CBA agreed 4 days off over the bye as a rest/recovery period before another 4 or 5 weeks after. This will leave us with the final 4 or 5 rounds to iron out gameplan, form and personell issues and training will become all about maintiaing the fitness levels rather than improving fitness. What this means for how we perfrom against Brisbane is anyones guess though? We won our game after last seasons bye against Essendon, but played quite poorly. This year the bye is extra short though, so we won't be getting in a full week of heavy training before we play (maybe 2 sessions), so could come out quite fresh. The other unknown is what Brisbane are doin. They will be desperate to avoid going out in straight sets again, so might be loading to the extreme. It could be a very error riddled game.

I suspect our decision makers think the risk of missing the top 4 is worth the reward of being cherry ripe. Scott suggested in his press conference last night that Geelong are hapy to miss the finals completely!! I would be more than happy to miss top 4 if we get there as fit as we were last year.

ABC Grandstand are going to address the comments of Scott shortly.

https://www.afl.com.au/video/783218/full-post-match-r14-cats?videoId=783218&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1655549142001 Scott talks a lot about loading a lot in the first half of the press conference. It actually seemed he wants it on the agenda. If you can't stomach listening to too much, have a listen to 2.50-3:10, 4.20-5.30, 9.10-9.35 (even saying it comes with no guarantees!!!).

That’s a key reason for the lack of discussion about it. Betting firms run the footy media and have a vested interest in punters being in the dark about this. They want bets placed with the heart of supporters, not their well informed brains.

“Scott’s gave context to the performance post-match when he said the team had ramped up its mid-season program significantly as part of a bigger plan to peak during September. "It's what we do during the middle period of the year. We double down, even more than we might have done in previous years," Scott said. "We might cost ourselves a little short-term, but we set up our program to be at our best when it counts. "If we finish ninth because we try to prime ourselves to be at our best later in the year, then we'll live with that. "We haven't been able to execute that over the last few years anyway. That's a reason to do it better." The section I’ve got in bold is why I think Melbourne is not done with the loading for this year and have another 4 week block of hard stuff on the track to come. Our 5 games post last seasons bye also informs that opinion.

As someone who has never placed a bet in my life, I'm more than happy to be schooled by you @binman about this. In 5 weeks when we're 12-6, hopefully you get the odds you are looking for. Then the fun begins 🔴🔵🔴🔵

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.

The big unknown is what's going on behind the scenes with Daw. When he has played VFL he has been good and I would be confident enough for him to come in. It is after all why we drafted him. Problem is he keeps missing VFL games without much explaination from the club so it's anyones guess as to his current fitness, health etc. If Daw is ok:- IN - Daw, Weeds, May OUT - Gawn (inj), M. Brown (omit), Turner (inj) If Daw is not ok, just Weeds and May in for the two injured players. As much as M. Brown seems to have struggled, I'm mindful how long other players took to get up to speed to AFL level when it's been so long out of the level, so it would be fingers crossed he can show improvement. Bedford back as medi-sub. Chandler looked very lost when he came in last week, which was a huge surprise because I hadn't seen that from him before.

I did some reseaarch this afternoon about previous premiers. Apart from Hawthorn in 2015, and ignoring 2020 which was so impacted by COVID, all other sides since 2014 have perfromed worse in the middle of the season compared to the rest. Melbourne 2021 had the biggest drop off, Richmond 2017 close behind. I was surprised that Melbourne last year was the most dominate season in that time. It's more than possible to win premierships while also losing 6 or 7 games during the home and away season.

Daw and Weeds to come in to share the ruck with LJ (Gawn and M. Brown out). The timing of this injury (and TMac’s ) is better than it happening in round 19 or 20.

Why do you feel it was very important? We all love to beat the magpies but that doesn’t necessarily make it important does it? Yes, we’re not playing at the level we saw late last year but even with the loss we are effectively equal first with 9 rounds to go. Well positioned with plenty of time to get things right (whatever your individual take on what is currently not right).

Nailed it

I think you are missing the point that my comment had nothing to do with Caro saying it was Melbourne supporters that booed Pendles (which is obviously a mistake as he got booed on an Anzac Day game). I was responding to Pates more general comment that Melbourne supporters wouldn’t boo a player for being named BOG.

I think you might have rose coloured glasses on. Perhaps a generation or two ago it might have been different, but nowadays all clubs have all sorts of supporters. Varying degrees perhaps, but I think in the same situation (euphoria after a big win, disappointment the award didn’t go to our own player), there would have been audible boos also.

I prefer the good old "effort" reason. If only the players just tried harder it will all work out.

You don't see the similarities to this time last year? Perhaps you should go and watch last years QB game to remind you.

Collingwood are a much better team this year than last, and this year we were missing May, TMac and had others that were banged up or returning from injury. So imo, last year was more dissappointing. Our cumlative outcome from those rounds was 4W-1D-4L, so we were a 50:50 team that put in some very poor performances. Injuries have had an impact but in no way explains the lack of run we have had by fit players, run which is key to executong our gameplan. We had a shorter preseason this time round, which is why I am even more certain that we are exploiting our 10-0 start to the season to get as fit as possible now for the run home to the finals. I fully expect to be clearly struggling with fatigue for 4 or 5 games after the bye also. I also think "statement" games were far more important last year to get the players to believe in the game plan, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest that we primed the team for the mid season games against the Bulldogs and Brisbane. It is far less important this year with the belief that is there after winning the premiership last year, meaning we were ok to risk losing games against other contenders with the bigger prize in mind.

We were even more dissapointing on QB last year than yesterday and went 4W-1D-4L round 10-19, so by what measure did we "carry through this period last year"?

@binman has talked about it in other threads, but it seems related to the way players and teams never make excuses, even if there are genuine and impactuful injuries or illness. Also I reckon it's part the veil of secrecy teams like to have, hiding selection, late changes, anything that could posibly give the oppisition an advantage. Yes, it would help ease fans anxiety, but I think this stuff will only be confirmed years after the event other than in cryptic, vague refrences.

https://webplayer.whooshkaa.com/show/1940?theme=light&episode=1008299 Hopefully that link works to the Nathan Jones segment on Dwayne Russells (🤮) show. Poor Dwayne wanted Jones to say something negative about Melbourne but Nathan gave him very little. Basically says yes they would want to be playing better but it's June so no need to panic. Definitely hinted loading off field may be happening.

If you and @Fork 'em are so sure of yourself, go to the Run Home Prediction thread and make a prediction of what happens from here.