Everything posted by CHF
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My Round 5 Preview and Prediction
Yeah RtG, I can fully understand your trepidation. I also agree with you vision of Mitchell and the influence he can have but so far this season we have not been deterred from playing the game the way we want to. We have to a great extent imposed ourselves on the games we have played and done so as a team. It will take a team effort across the ground from all players to beat us and I do not see the Hawks having that depth of commitment so far this season.
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My Round 5 Preview and Prediction
4-0 4-zero 4- nil 4-zip 4 – nada I do like the look of that. The 4 is so important as is the figure 16 for the points we have thus far. I also like the number 8 which is the points break we have over a number of the pre-season ‘contenders’. And there is 2 which is our position on the ladder. 4 rounds, 4 wins and 16 premiership points in the bank. I watched it live via streaming and a few times I found myself thinking back to my childhood. As a young lad I just loved to go to the Saturday matinee that was on at the local cinema with my mates during the summer holidays. There was always a really good B grade adventure movie on. A western, a pirate saga or a good war story. All good, but my favourite was always the Musketeers. Damn they were good. Always having fun, Always getting into problem places only to be helped out by one of their other three mates. The backyard games after a Musketeers movie would find us with our sword sticks in hand giving a battle cry of “ALL FOR ONE – ONE FOR ALL!!” followed by a charge into Mum’s flowerbed to decapitate the hydrangeas. God, I got into trouble for that. The Melbourne Musketeers out played the Geelong Flowerbeds in Round 4. We had a musketeer troop in each area of the ground. They supported each other, exerted the pressure needed, were well lead and looked good doing it. It was another 4 points, but I find these points the sweetest of the season so far. And so, to the Round 5 encounter with the Hawks at the G on Sunday afternoon. What to say about the Hawks? Well, they have not been great so far this season. In all truth, I have to admit that I have not followed them all that closely. Saw a little of their game yesterday and while they have a couple of handy performers, they also have a lot of ordinary performers. Clarkson did a great job as a rookie senior coach when he first went there but personally, I think he has run his course. I look at them and see a very ordinary list playing to expectations. The facts: We are coming off a win at the G against the Flowerbeds - Advantage us. We still do not look to be playing to our potential – Advantage them They had a loss over in WA and have the flights to contend with. - Advantage us Howe injured for them and Lewis rubbed out, May out for us. - No advantage either way (maybe a bit for them with our loss of May) Problem areas of the game for us (not sure that this is the right terminology given the wins we have had): After four matches this season we are seeing a very different team performing in the red and blue than was running around last year. My observations are that the players seem to be very clear on their primary roles, playing them confidently and executing well. They also look to be responding to the on-field situation with more awareness. Well done to the coaching staff if this is the case as they look to have made the message simple and straightforward. A bit like the way we are playing at the moment. Defence, I was a bit worried about in the first quarter when Lever dropped a couple of simple marks that he would normally snaffle. However, once May went off early in the second, Lever rose to the occasion and did not just cut out errors from his game but took the leadership role in that area of the ground and did a great job with his troop of Musketeers. Next week will test our structure down back with the introduction of a new tall defender into the system. Looks as if it will be Petty and I do not mind that. I know I am down on Jetta a bit but I think Clarkson is just the sort of opposition coach that will come up with a plan to exploit Jetta’s limitations. Loved the way that they adjusted to May’s absence. Hunt is in great form. Hawks have a few good players in the middle but they will have a problem or three covering all of Oliver, Petracca and Viney and getting their own drive from the center. O’meara and Mitchell are the main threats in the middle and they will need to work hard to dictate terms. If we get the ascendancy there and put them on the back foot so they are reactive rather than proactive then that is the game right there. These three along with the support players are doing the job very well. Langdon is a great pickup for us and, as someone on this board observed, he and Hunt seem to feed off each other and I love the sight of the two of them running the wing. Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties is working well. The fixtures could not have been better for us with the teams we have met so far having not a lot of ruck talent to go against us. This has allowed Max to move around the ground as required covering defence as required and also moving forward to give an extra dimension to the forward structure. It has also allowed Luke to get some good experience and time in the ruck. If the mids keep to the Musketeer’s philosophy and play well and support each other, then we should dominate this area. Now for the forwards……. We have to include discussion of them you know….. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Fristch with 4 (there is that number again… Fristch to get 5 this week?) The bad; This is a tough one…… The bad (for Geelong and I hope for Hawks) our forward pressure across the forward 50. The ugly; Fristch’s hair Good to be in the situation where our two missing key forwards are back playing and we are in no rush to get them back in the team. What a luxury it is to be able to nurture them to full fitness via Casey. I will be interested to see who the poor man’s Jayden hunt is sent to cover. Frost on TMac, Fristch? I just see our troop of forward Musketeer’s having too much flexibility for the Hawks defence. We have pressure forwards to tackle and harass, we have a lot of flexibility to rotate players through there to get the matchup we want to try and exploit and we are getting more accurate. Last week I predicted a 3 goal win and later revised it upwards to 5 goals and we won by 4. This week I do not want to get ahead of myself so I am going conservative and predicting a win to the Dees by 5 goals. The bandwagon is parked in the driveway, the red and blue livery polished to perfection and the bathwater steamer bubbling away. There are plenty of vacant seats on board at the moment but I am sure with 5-0 against our name the seats will fill fast. “All for one and one for all!”
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TEAMS: Rd 04 vs Geelong
No problems with the selection. I would have gone differently and I may have has Jetta in the firing line. The selectors, I will give the benefit of the doubt to as I am sure they know a bit more than me. With the way the results have gone this is a big game for us. A win will give us a two game break over a few of the fancied teams including WC, Tiges and cats.
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
A bit of an update on my preview and prediction – There is talk over at the Kardy park site that OÇonnor with a hard tag on Oliver will cause Oliver to lose it and lash out and give away frees. I believe that he will learn from last week and more play the ball – really revert to ‘see ball – get ball’ and let the tag take care of itself. Early in last week’s game he got a few frees for holding and although he did not get a lot of possessions, he still had 3 center clearances by halftime. I will back him to come back from his first half last week. If I was a Cats supporter I would be more concerned about Selwood’s reaction to a possible Viney tag/run with. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the proper time. Midfield match ups will be interesting. Interesting to see what they are at the first bounce and how they evolve during the game. If Kossie is at the first bounce, who will the cats put on him? I think our midfield will win out and expose Geelong on the open space of the G. Revising upward my initial winning margin of 3 goals to 5 goals.
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
I think that the cats will look to tag Clarry with OÇonnor'. OÇonnor has done a couple of very good tagging jobs on critical opposition mids in the last couple of weeks and as an advantage, is a strong defender if Clarry were to move forward to try and negate the tag. I could see a matchup of Petracca and Gurthrey. Not as a tag but with a run with player. I am sure Goodwin would back Petracca to win that encounter. Whichever one is on top in the encounter would force the other to try and break the matchup. if Guthrey gets off the leash I would look at either Viney or Sparrow to move on to him and apply a stronger tag. The midfield matchups and battle will be an interesting highlight to the game. We need to play that area of the game on our terms.
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Stats Files - 2021
I was looking through our player stats for the first 3 rounds on the AFL site and found some interesting bits and pieces. The top 6 for disposal efficiency on the team are all defenders. Of the recognised defenders only Hunt is not there at #12. For total effective kick numbers 5 of the top 6 are defenders with Hunt at 9 and Jetta at 20 Kick effectiveness has 6 of the top 7 places for defenders. In all a good picture being put together by the defenders. A couple of other things caught my eye. pressure acts - Jordon #3, Sparrow #4 and NB #5 in the team to date with Kossie and Spargo #7&8 Tackle numbers - Jordon #1 - Sparrow #4 - Jetta #22.
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
Smokey, I have done these previews the last few weeks and will try to continue to knock them out each week. I do them because I am a Demon tragic and I enjoy it. I find that it also makes me think a bit more about the game. All good really.
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
I looked at the Accuweather forecast and it did not look to be too bad. A bit breezy in the morning with a 25% chance of rain.
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CHANGES: Rd 04 vs Geelong
I do not expect too many changes to the team this week. After all, it is a winning team. I would like to see Jetta replaced in defence. 66% game time for 9 possessions and zero tackles is not what I want to see from him. I might be tempted to bring in Bowey. Give him a taste and see how he goes. There has also been talk about possibly Melksham for Sparrow. Not for me. Sparrow made more tackles and defensive efforts last week than Melky did the whole of last season.
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
Thank you.....
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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction
WOW! 3 rounds, 3 wins and 12 premiership points in the bank. It is so long since we have experienced such a high position on the ladder this early in the season it is giving me nose bleeds. As a matter of fact, I have experienced some Demon seasons where we have not realised 12 points for the whole 22 rounds. We played GWS last round and, it has to be said that they suffered three critical game ending injuries to leading players. This, of course, made it very difficult for them. So what? It happens. I will take the points and celebrate the win and I do not see anywhere an asterix besides the 4 points that explains the situation. Sing the song, celebrate the win, and move on the next round. And so, to the Round 4 encounter with the [censored] ( I had no idea that 'Puss ies" was censored) at the G on Sunday afternoon. Don’t be surprised if Geelong do not turn up on Sunday. I mean that literally, not metaphorically. Since records were first kept, when the [censored] supporters saw the Dees fixture on the season list they just assumed it was a home game at Kardy Park. Do not be surprised if, an hour before the game, a bunch of their supporters turn up at the ground from the pub only to realise that the game is being played elsewhere. A few of the dimmer players might also turn up there. The facts: We are coming off a win in Canberra and are full of confidence. Advantage us. We did not make the most of our good play last week. Advantage them. They had a hard-fought win against the hawks and have one less day to recover. Advantage us They have no Dangerfield and that other bloke that is the worst sort of sniper/king hitter I have seen for some time. Advantage us Problem areas of the game for us: Strange to think that we are 3-0 with a patched up forward structure and have not really put it all together in a game yet. Does that say more about us, or the teams we have played? Defence was a bit patchy on Sunday. It held together but did not look as confident as it has in the recent past. There were a few dropped marks that should have been taken and I was very nervous each time Jetta was called upon to step up. He started on Toby and was left standing and watching a few times before May moved to him. Nev had jut 67% game time for 9 disposals and zero tackles. Not what you want from a defender. On the plus side in defence Hunt had a blinder. In the past I have subscribed to the old maxim that it is all about the midfield but I might have to say that in this game it will be the defence that needs to perform against a mature, well structured attack. May has a big job to do on Hawkins. We had problems in the midfield against GWS. Oliver copped a heavy tag as was not able to work it out. The coaches moved him forward where he managed to get his hands on the ball but butchered the three set shots. Petracca had a reasonable game but I wondered after the game if the heavy tag on Oliver also affected Petracca’s game. I have noticed that the seems to feed off each other in games. Will be interesting to see how that situation develops. I like the way that we are developing the games of Sparrow and Jordon. Both had only 66% game time last week with Jordon really delivering. This week they will come up against a good midfield team but I believe we will come out on top of them. Smith against Langdon as a match up? Gutherie and Selwwood will need to be contained. Ah yes, now for the forwards……. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Kossie with 4 The bad; that midfielder’s set shots for goal The ugly; TMac’s disappearance for a lot of the game Well, I have to say that Kossie is a great pickup. 4 goals taken with excitement and flare. And….. he is ours….. Fristch found his kicking boots and looked like he was having fun out there and giving the opposition players a bit as well. It is not the forward structure we thought we would be running with in the pre-season but we still manage to find avenues to goal each week. I hope we do the same this week. I predicted a 6 goal win last week and missed by a couple of points. This week I think it will be tighter than last week with the older more experienced [censored] pushing the whole way. 3 quarters of an arm wrestle with us winning out in the last by 3 goals. If we go to 4-0 I can imagine that there will be a few more heads turning our way in the media and the other teams. OK. I’ve dusted off the bandwagon, polished the fading paintwork, given it a tune up and topped up the fuel tank with premium bathwater. Another win and it will trundle out into public for the first time since the beginning of 2019 season.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 03 vs GWS
Well, I am off to bed. The game starts at 10.10 tomorrow morning my time. So at halftime I put on the leg of lamb and it will be good timing to have lunch and a glass or seven of a Tuscan red to celebrate the win. 6 goal win.
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Preferred Midfield Mix
I think that we have an excellent midfield mix at the moment and that the coaching staff are using them well. Inside we have a number of quality players that can rotate through and a number of different setups that we can go to. On the wings there is Mr. 100% TOG, Langdon on one wing and on the other we look to run a few through there. Brayshaw is the latest and I do not mind him there. I think he will prove to be effective out there. With him in the team we also have an option to rotate him into the center with ANB, Hunt or Harmes spending time there in his stead. Petracca, Oliver and Viney are our critical building blocks in the middle but there are the support players there also move through there. I have been impressed by both Sparrow and Jordon and the work that they do around the ground. It can only benefit them to have the three above the work, train and play with day in day out. That is 9 names from last week's team plus Harmes. I think that, with the new interchange numbers, we need 12 names that can spend time in the midfield As options we have Kossie to flash in and out of the starting mid. Jones is another but he will spend limited time there. Jackson lining up in the middle a few times a match to shark Max's taps? I would not mind seeing that. With the depth we have I think the midfield structure and flexibility we have us excellent. We, and the coaches, know exactly how Viney plays and it is up to the coaches to get the best out of him within the team structure. To My Mind he is too good to lose from the list.
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POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs St. Kilda
One thing that I learnt from the Saints match is that the other Jones boy is a very angry young man.
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
Two simple elements I noticed from the Saints game. Generally there was one player committed to the contest with a single backup just on the defensive side. The player in the contest worked hard with a number of additional efforts at the contest. This was across all areas of the ground. The other thing I noticed was that at center restarts our players are not engaging in close contact with the opposition as much as they have done in the past. in some cases they are standing 2m off and are well in motion prior to the tap. It was a marked difference from our setup in Round 1.
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What they're saying at Parramatta Road
I read somewhere that the AFL are considering moving a bunch of Collingwood supporters to Western Sydney and thus improving the IQ of both places. (an oldie but a goody)
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My Round 3 Preview and Prediction
But we are The Redlegs, not the Red Ankles.
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My Round 3 Preview and Prediction
Be still my thundering heart. 2 Rounds done… 2 wins and 8 premiership points in the bank. So very strange. There were even some good coaching moves made during the game. I was not far off in my prediction last week. I predicted a 4 goal win – close, except that it could have been anywhere between a 3 and 10 goal margin. Big difference between Round 1 and Round 2 was that the midfield looked well organised and ran hard all day. So with Round 2 done and dusted we turn our attention to Round 3 and our game in Canberra on Sunday against the Great Waste of Space (GWS), The AFL’s version of the creature that was created by Victor Frankenstein. With this, the Waste of Space’s 10th year as a ‘club’, it should be settled and well structured. However, I do not think that is the case. It has been the poor cousin living next door to the Swans based in a wasteland of AFL fans. I can see constant messages being sent by the Captain of the good ship, Waste of Space, Reading “Send Lawyers, Guns and Money, the natives are restless”. I am sure from that paragraph you have picked up that I do not hold this ‘team’ in high regard. I do not even hate them, more that I am miffed at their existence. To hate them I would need to have some respect for them. Still, I have to put that aside and look at the actual footy. There are 4 premiership points to be won and lost….. this is serious. I want us to grab those points. The facts: We are playing them with an extra day’s rest. Advantage us. They are travelling back from a loss in Perth. Advantage us We play in Canberra. ? (well it is a fact) Our third string forward line still misses a lot. Advantage them. Problem areas of the game for us: After the performance last week, it is difficult to identify the major problems except for one. More on the later. Defence was again very good, and they were well organised to cover the main threats that the Saints presented. Himmelberg and Ninja Green look to be the main threats for the defence to look out for. Their kicking for gaol against Freo was just about as bad as ours was against the Saints. They had 9 players from the midfield that between them kicked 0.10. While May and Lever did not have an easy time of it last week as they had in Round 1, the rest of the defenders stepped up and worked as a unit. We need them to keep it up and look to improve against the Waste of Space. The midfield does not have too many problems given that level of performance across the board. The hard part will be maintaining that quality. This week we need to come out hard and fast in the middle, give the opposition no space and produce the repeat efforts in close that were a feature of last week’s performance. We need the midfield to dominate so they give us as many chances as possible to have scoring shots. (This bit is a cut and paste of my comments last week with a couple of minor adjustments – I know I am being lazy) Now let us turn our attention to our forwards. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. The bad; it was not that many goals (as it should have been). The ugly; the bad kicking for goal. Almost twice as many behinds as goals. In the forwards I like the structure and the players. It is functioning well. Kossie and Spargo together are a great double act and the talls are getting to the places they need to. When the goal kicking accuracy sorts itself out it will be a sight to behold. Freo kicked 11.21 against GWS’s defence with pretty much the same forward setup as played against us with a couple of changes. Perryman looks to be the best of that lot with Cumming getting a lot of possessions from half back and being their main carrier out of defence. Will be interesting to see who plays on him/who he plays on. The selection meeting this week will be simple. Shut the door, have a couple of beers, eat the cheese board, catch up on the news and announce ‘no changes’. The MFC ‘glass half empties’ are having a hard time of it at the moment and a few of them seem to have gone to ground. I am sure they will surface again the near future. If we keep winning, I await the first post criticising the players for wearing short socks and how it is a sign that Goodwin has lost them. The big question is; will Dr.Frank’s Creature run rampant and create fear and havoc or will the Demon hoards contain, restrict and then overrun the self-entitled love child of the AFL? (A thought; does this make Sheedy Frankenstein’s assistant, Igor?) I am going with the Demon hoard to bring home a good win making it a 3-0 start. 6 goal margin to the Dees.
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TEAMS: Rd 02 vs St. Kilda
Selection pretty much as expected. It would have been interesting to see who would have been dropped if Harmes was not injured. Good luck to May on his 150th milestone, Hope he has 150 more high class games for the Dees.
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My Round 2 preview and prediction
I am based in Europe and last round started at 3.45 am for me. I woke at 4 and watched it from the start and ended up skipping the breaks and caught the last quarter live then had breakfast. This week the game starts at a more manageable 9.25am. Means that with a win I can crack wine or two to celebrate. Like you, I love the footy and love to see the Dees play. It is just that sometimes I really hate the result.
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My Round 2 preview and prediction
It is called optimism. A heady brew.
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My Round 2 preview and prediction
I am a ‘glass half full’ kind of guy. I find that it has helped me a lot over the years being a Demon supporter. I have seen so much ‘potential’ in our younger players turn into false dawns; I have seen so many potential champions had their time at the Dees ruined by injury that I even ask myself how I can maintain my rose-coloured outlook. The answer is simple….. The alternative offers despair, depression and madness. Which brings me firstly to the reactions of some supporters to the win last week against Freo. We win a Round 1 encounter for the first time in years and it is almost as if the ‘Half Empties’ are offended that we won. Amazing! We have 4 premiership points in the bank, a win on the board and are better placed that half of the competition. It makes me dizzy to think of what the future holds. And so, to the Round 2 encounter with St. Kilda Saturday night at Marvel Stadium. Is it just me or do others look at the fixtures when they come out and think the Saints fixture is pencilled in as a win? For some reason I just do not take them seriously. Yeah, they have had some excellent players and some reasonable teams, but St. Kilda????? Nah. The facts: We are coming off a rusty win with an extra day of recovery while the Saints had a close slog in the wet interstate. Advantage us. We were not very good. Advantage them. The Saints last week were on the wrong side of every team stat but kicked accurately. Advantage them Problem areas of the game for us: Defence…. I know, I know … our defence last week were great. May, Lever and to a lesser extent Tomlinson and Rivers marked everything that was kicked into their space and Jetta won his game as a small defender. For me those strengths last week may be our weakness this week. The Saints forwards are a big step up from what they faced last week and if they compete in the air against our tall defenders and bring the ball to ground, we may find a fleet of small Saints forwards ready to make hay. Jetta, Rivers, Hunt and Salem do not inspire confidence to be able to defend in close and personal against an experienced small forward crew. Saints had 4 multi pule goal scorers last week with Membury kicking three. This is my biggest concern in the game. The midfield will need to sort out the problems of last week with their cohesion with Max and each other. I am not asking for perfect, just an improvement. If they can exert proper pressure in the midfield and get some ascendancy, then that will greatly help defence. I also want to see them shut down any run through the corridor. Time and time again last week Freo ran down the corridor seemingly unopposed. We need to ensure that out transition from attack to defence in the midfield is much sharper. I think our midfield man for man are better than the Saints but we need them to work together and for each other more. Now let us turn our attention to our forwards. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. The bad; it was not that many goals. The ugly; the bad kicking for goal. 1-6 in the last quarter. We have to forget about who is not there and look at what we do have available. TMac looks to have better form that he has shown in the last couple of years. Fristch is doing his thing which is presenting and kicking a couple. Max, Jackson and Petracca rotate through there at different times with varying effect. Spargo and Kossie are performing, running, tackling and snagging the odd goal. All you can ask really. I think for this game we need one more really good defensive forward to help lock it in. Not sure that Jones or Melksham are the answer to that question. Jones is a half a pace too slow, and I cannot remember the last time Melksham made a tackle that stuck. So, after all this insightful analysis and deep thought, who is going to win and why? My rose coloured glass is half full at least so the Dees will win a hard fought encounter by our mids stepping up from last week, our forward expressing their confidence built up from last week and by outrunning the Saints in the last. Dees by 4 goals, 2-0 and 8 premiership points in the bank come late Saturday night and a pleasant Sunday.
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POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle
I have a question.... Why is it that with all the WhizBang technology that is available these days we cannot properly hear the questions at the after match presser?
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CHANGES: Rd 02 vs St. Kilda
Not too many changes for me. I would bring in Viney as long a he has the run in his legs. One thing that came out of the games was that the longer quarters, th rule changes and less interchanges have put a premium on fitness and the ability to run out games. Only players that are 100% ready should be considered for selection. Out goes Jones. He had a reasonable game, But I think we need more mid rotations and better (younger?) legs. Might consider Hibberd for either Rivers or Hunt but it is line ball for me. Rivers took some good marks to intercept in the first half in particular and loosing Hunt would take a lot of pace and some flexibility out of the side. Other than that the only other change I would consider would be to look at making Bowey the Sub. Chandler will need a game somewhere next week.
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POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle
I will take 4 points and 'learnings' from any win rather than 0 points and lessons from any game. It was a good win as far as i am concerned. Played well in the first quarter and later in the 4th quarter and came awy with a lot to work on. I liked Jordon's first game. He looks composed and confident and I am looking to to see how he builds on that. I liked Sparrow's game aas well and I think he will add to the depth of the Mids. tackles well and has a bit of toe about him. Spargo was great in the game and if he can produce that game on a consistent basis he will play a lot of game for the Dees. There are a couple of broken links to work on such as the link between Ruck and Mids and the kick into the forward 50 needs work still. I counted no less than 5 times in the last quarter where the last kick into the 50 was to an opponent for mark or badly directed into open space with defenders closest to the drop. Defence was excellent but they will come up against better forwards in the future, starting next week. May, Lever, Tomlinson and to a lesser extent Rivers were all great and cutting off attacks with intercept marks. Jetta had a good game against a smaller less experienced player. he will come up against better players as from next week nd that will be a better indication of where he is at. Mids, As my teachers used to say about me, 'Can do better'. Looks to me as if Oliver ha been asked to take on opponents a bit more than he has in the past. He will be better for this game where he was caught a lot. Freo were not good enough to fully punish us. Petracc had a quiet game by his standards I thought. having said that, his followup efforts at the contest are just great. He hates to be beaten. I like to look of Kossie in the middle every now and then. A little different for the opposition to work out. It was good to see TMac up and about and I think there is a bit to work with with the players we have available. At one stage in the first at a center bounce there was Fritsch in the square, Max 30 out and Spargo on the 50m arc with Jackson in the ruck. Later in the 4th TMac was in the square, Fritsch 10m in front of him, Jackson 40 m out and Pickett on the 50m arc. It will be interesting to watch the form and development of this group. Saints next week and I will be looking for the team to look a little less rusty and a bit more 'on'.