Everything posted by CHF
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My Round 8 Preview and Prediction
7-0 7 Rounds played….. 7 wins….. 28 points in the premiership bank. (took me a bit to work out the points total as it is approaching higher maths for me) What a turn up….. Top of the ladder a game clear of second. A strange situation that I am sure not many of us have experienced for a lot of years. Nice feeling though…. I predicted a 10 goal win against the Roos and I was half right… we won by 5. To my mind it was a very disruptive game for us. The game was disrupted in the lead up over conjecture as to where it would be played. There was disruption when Viney was pulled from the side prior to the game with a hot spot (whatever that is). There was disruption in the first quarter when Tomlinson went down with a serious knee injury. There was disruption with Tmac moving back. There was disruption when North out pressured us in the first half and played a hell of a lot better than expected. A lot of disruption. Good coaching and half-time adjustments saw us kick 10 goals to the Roo’s 2 in the second half. In all, while I was annoyed at how we played the first half I liked the way we responded after the break and settled into our structures and upped the pressure. And so, to the Round 8 encounter with the Swannies at the MCG on Saturday evening. I have to admit a soft spot for South Melbourne as a mate of mine played for them for a few seasons back in the dim, dark past. Always gave them some support as long as they were below us on the ladder and were not playing us. However, now they are Sydney based, I do not really give a flying fig about them…… More points….more points… I am greedy for the points….. Gimme gimme gimme. Oops, sorry I got carries away there. The facts: We are coming off a win over the Roos in Tassie, - nothing to rave about We responded to the game situation well and played the second half well – Advantage us They are coming off a tight win in Sydney against the team from down the road. – Advantage them? (not convincing – more like lucky) They are travelling down from Sydney – Advantage us They have one day extra rest – Advantage them Problem areas of the game for us. We have a few this week given the injury to Tomlinson and the suspension of Fritsch I am not sure I like this whole business of being undefeated as I find the lead up to each game just that much more fraught with thoughts about …”What if we lose?” Call it historical conditioning. Being a long term Melbourne supporter has conditioned me over the year to expect the team to find a way to screw up a good thing. Another win will be a step towards a strong belief in the team and coaches. Defence Will need to be as good as can be against the Swans. They were very accurate against the Cats kicking 14-6, 8 less scoring shots and 26 less inside 50’s than the Cats and running out winners by just 2 points. Looks like Buddy will be back in the forward 50 but I do not think he will be much of a factor in the game. We have the structure to close down the Sydney forwards. With Tomlinson as a long term out I would go with Petty to replace him. He was reasonable in the one game he had a couple of weeks ago and with May, Lever, Hibberd and Salem around him, he will learn a lot and get some good experience. Got them covered in defence. It seems that on every line we have the chance to show our depth. In the midfield we have lost Viney for a few weeks by the look of it. Tough to cover someone like him. Sydney have some potentially excellent mids that looked to have low possession games against the Cats. Then again, our mids had a half of gliding against the Roos. If we bring the pressure to the contest that we know is required, I believe we will come out on top in this area. With Viney missing I would like to see Sparrow back. Max played a very ordinary game last week. Not just ordinary by his lofty standards, ordinary by any of the game’s parameters. We need max back to his best for this match where he and Luke will be up against Hickey and Sinclair, not the most dynamic of rucking duos. Jackson to step up another rung and our mids to work out how to clear the ball in the center. Now for the forwards……. (again) The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Fritsch 6 and a week’s holiday The bad; The forward entries The ugly; Now Brown is in the team we can give Fritsch’s hair a rest. With better service in the second half the forwards settled and did their job. With Brown there and Tmac moved back it made for an interesting dynamic. Brown drew 2 and sometimes 3 defenders every time he lead. This opened up the rest of the space for the crumbers and for Fritsch to operate in. It worked well but I don’t think it will be enough this week against the Swans. We have a few questions to answer at selection and who is included will depend on what sort of tactics are adopted and what backup plans we put in place. Dare I say it???? Melksham to the Fritsch role with TMac and Brown as talls. Jackson and Gawn rotating there as alternative talls and Petracca and Oliver in the rotating forward mix as well. Definitely a 3 cheese platter night at selection this week. The Bathwater Express managed to hit a couple of pot holes last week but no long term damage done and all passengers accounted for. The road is flat and straight and flat to Saturday night’s horizon. Will need the head lights functioning for the night game but other than that all is looking rosy. Prediction?.... well I am tempted to go with another 5 goal prediction but I am feeling bullish. The G, Saturday night, a few points to prove… to me it all points to a big response by the team. I am going to go with an 8 goal margin for the Dees…. The Undefeated Dees…. 7-0… Had to write it one more time….
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Where to watch Sundays game
In bed after waking up at 5am via streaming.
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Christian Petracca is A Demon For Life
Any word from Judd's grandmother if Petracca has signed or not?
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CASEY: Rd 03 vs North Melbourne
Firstly, I would love to have been close to listen to the Roos/Jetta talk It looked as if Roos was giving him a few coaching tips. Secondly, I loved some of the play that I saw from the Melbourne listed players. Bowey and D. Smith in defence look as if they can both develop into good players. Bradke looked a hell of a lot better than I thought he would. A couple of years and a stack of Kilos and he might just make it. Sparrow was very good and I will call it now, In two years time he will be in the first 3 picked in the seniors for the midfield. Harmes was good enough coming off a break of 4 weeks or so. Will be better for the run. Chandler and to a lesser extent, Bedford are both ready to step in a small forward slot if one becomes vacant. When Weid gets a run in the seniors he will be very hard to replace. Good to see that Casey are playing and structured exactly the same way that Melbourne play.
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CHANGES: Rd 07 vs North Melbourne
Do we have any idea when the Casey team will be announced as that will give a clear indication of senior selection.
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Smith - Barassi - Blight - Goodwin
Funny, I knew it was not right when I was typing it but did not check. Changed it now. Thank you.
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Smith - Barassi - Blight - Goodwin
Goodwin's coaches were Blight, Ayres and Craig.
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CHANGES: Rd 07 vs North Melbourne
Tempting to bring in B Brown but difficult to know who would come out. I think we have a good structure in there at the moment that is proving to be very difficult for the opposition. Do we need the distraction of Brown up against his old club? it may derail us a bit. Do not think any of the team would want to be 'rested' at this stage as they can see how difficult it is to get into the gameday 22.
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My Round 7 Preview and Prediction
Agree 100% with this. Said last week that one game will not make or break our season but win or lose last week the big thing for me would be how they respond in the Roos game this week.
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My Round 7 Preview and Prediction
6-0 6 Rounds played….. 6 wins….. 24 points in the premiership bank. Looks good huh? I am on the wrong side of 60yo….. the wrong side of 6’ ……. And, if my wife is to be believed, the wrong side of 80kg. However, I am on the right side of one thing….. The Fence. The fence that divides the MFC supporters from the rest of the AFL supporters. And what a pleasant view it is from where we sit. Nothing but wins……. So far…. Hell of a lot of the season to go but I would rather be where we are rather than where we are not. Richmond looked as if they thought if they turned up and did the minimum they would find a way to win. A few of their ‘stars’ would do the necessary and Bobs your uncle….. 4 points. Oops…. It has all been said by others in the press and on this and other sites. We absorbed their early pressure, turned up the wick a notch or two and found them wanting. Ended up controlling the majority of the game across the field with a good, strong consistent pressure game in all lines. I predicted a 5 goal win and came close. I know it is traditional that the players get the accolades for a win and the coaches/selectors get the kicks for a loss but a big shout out to the coaches and selectors for getting it right so far this season. The players are well prepared, well drilled and carrying out their roles perfectly. You cannot ask for more. And so, to the Round 7 encounter with the Roos in Tassie (for now) on Sunday. What to say about this iteration of the North Melbourne team? We, as Demon supporters, know their situation very well having lived it for a long time. Is that a reason to go soft on them? No bloody way! I want the win, the points and a percentage boost. I want the team to prepare exactly the same way they have for the last 6 matches. I want them to be confident in their approach to the game but understand that, if they drop their intensity and pressure a little, they will pay for it. The facts: We are coming off a win at the G against the reigning premiers, Richmond- Advantage us. We were in control of our game for long periods – Advantage us They have not won a game, or looked like winning a game all season - Advantage us They are travelling back from WA – Advantage us The game is in Tassie – Advantage them ( I had to find something to their advantage) Problem areas of the game for us (this is getting harder and harder to find. I may have to change it to problem areas for the opposition): I found my reaction to watching the game on Saturday very different. I was on edge in the early part of the first quarter until Salem kicked the first for us. When that happened, I smiled, sat back and enjoyed the rest of it. I had confidence that we would win. A very strange feeling. Defence is up there in the best in the league, if not the best at the moment. That was one of the best defensive performances I have seen from a Melbourne team against a ‘quality’ attack. The test for the defensive unit this week will be to ensure that they keep up the intensity for four quarters. Good structure, balance and leadership in the team back there at the moment. Just keep on keeping on no matter the opposition. We have the Roos covered in the middle of the ground. If both teams play to form, that is a big understatement. The form of Petracca, Oliver and the rest is excellent. I know that there is talk of the players being selfless and I agree with that but, to my mind, it is the fact that the mix in there right now really compliment each other. Strong individual connections as well as strong team connections. I wonder if any one has done an analysis of the percentage of times the ball goes directly between players like Petracca and Oliver or Langdon and Hunt. Roos will have huge problems trying to contain us in the middle. Ziebell has been a stand out for them but has little quality support except for possibly Cunnington. Not a lot there after those two. Max and Luke come up against one of Max’s old sparring partners in Goldstein. Supporting Todd will be Campbell most likely. Again, the Roos pair will have their hands full not just in the ruck contests but also around the ground. I can see that they will be in a very defensive mode against the Max and Luke show. Now for the forwards……. (again) The good; we kicked a winning score last week. The bad; The game was too short…. I was enjoying it so much I wanted it to continue The ugly; Fritsch’s wet hair….. it almost looked natural. What I like about the present players/structure in the forward 50 is that it makes us so very unpredictable and hard to defend against and I think that will be a big worry for North. It would be tempting for the selectors to bring Brown of the ‘B’ variety into the team to play against his old team, but they may decide that there is no need and that we do not need any distraction in attack. Love that TMac has re-discovered his old form and making selection an automatic for himself. I predict a big win for the Dees. 10 goals. I looked over the North team and their stats in recent matches and it would be the biggest upset in many a season if they got up in this one. The bandwagon, that has been christened “The Bathwater Express” is purring along like a 70’s muscle car. The big 351 throbbing with latent power just waiting to be opened up on the straight. Might have to do a bit of adjustment along the way to get it to handle the corners and tricky bits. Seats are filling fast.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 06 vs Richmond
Loving this.... problem is it is so good I am forgetting to drink.....
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GAMEDAY: Rd 06 vs Richmond
Good team play. We are asking the questions of Richmond and they are not finding any answers. Will be interesting to see how each team resets in the second half....
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GAMEDAY: Rd 06 vs Richmond
Richmond asked us a few big questions in that quarter and we had the answers. We will get to ask a few questions of our own before this game is done.....
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GAMEDAY: Rd 06 vs Richmond
Game starts at 11.25 am my time and I will be watching.... Too early for a drink or 7?
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My Round 6 Preview and Prediction
It is a great game to get. a real feature of our fixture calendar. I cannot help but smile at this season's ANZAC day 'blockbuster' with 14th Vs. 16th on the ladder and little hope of either making the finals.
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What they're saying down at Punt Road
The game this weekend will not make or break our season. We will either be 6-0 or 5-1 with more than 2/3 of the season to come. Make no mistake, I want us to win and believe we have the players and game to do so. However, win or lose, I will be most interested in our team/players reaction to the result. After the game is done and dusted, I want the players and coaches to do what they appear to have been doing all season so far. Turn our attention immediately to the fixture next week and prepare fully and properly. No matter who we have coming up. So far this season we have met every challenge by ensuring we are ready when the ball is bounced. I want the same thing each week.
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POSTGAME: Rd 05 v Hawthorn
True that.
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POSTGAME: Rd 05 v Hawthorn
There has been a lot of talk over many years about our lack of ability to develop our young players. However, I found it interesting that at the first bounce on Sunday we had Petracca, Oliver and Kossie at Max's feet while Hawthorn had Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard in the center square. Our three have all been developed in house via the draft and the Hawk's three were all imported as mostly finished articles from other clubs. It has to be recognised that we have had access to a lot more early draft picks than Hawks. having said that, out talent spotting has been very good in the drafts. Kossie and Oliver were considered as 'brave' picks. Petracca fell into our laps because of the Saints preference for a forward. In defence it is different. We have an imported defence with Hibberd, Lever, Tomlinson and May. !7 of last week's team of 23 came to us through the draft and been developed in-house. Given the way we are travelling, our development of mids is very good but it seems we need to import key defenders. In all other areas of the ground except for the wings we have developed our players very well over the last 5 years or so. Maybe with Yze and Williams joining Goodwin they have all added some polish to the almost finished goods.
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CHANGES: Rd 06 vs Richmond
Would love to be a fly on the wall during the selection meeting this week. First name confirmed will be Jones, and deservedly so. Has been great for the club in difficult times and I think the role he has played in mentoring a number of young players has been tremendous. His influence on this list will be felt for many seasons. May in for Petty if he is 100%. don't risk him and leave Petty in place if there is any doubt. I don't think Fritsch will be ready for this week. Wiedeman in for M Brown and B Brown to have another run at Casey to get him in trim to face the Roos. The only other change that I can see might happen is that we may rest Jordon if it is required. Swap Sparrow in and have Jordon as Sub.
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2021 Full Fixture
Thought I would bump this as we are travelling a bit better than expected at 5-0 with the next 4 fixtures confirmed. ROUND 6 - Richmond at the MCG. NM our R7 opponents play Freo in WA on the same day. Tough game, Big game. - Winnable ROUND 7 - NM in Tassie with them coming back from WA and then travelling to Tassie. R8 opponent play Geelong in Sydney - Very winnable, disappointed if we lose. ROUND 8 - Sydney at the MCG. travelling to Melbourne. Our R9 opponent, Carlton have a tough game against Bulldogs on the same day we play. - We should account for them. ROUND 9 - Carlton at the MCG. Love to win all 4.
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My Round 6 Preview and Prediction
5-0. Looks good to me. 5 rounds in…. 5 wins…. 20 premiership points. Second spot on the ladder. That is as good as it gets at this stage of any season. At my stage of life, I have a hell of a lot more long winding road behind me than open road in front of me. On the well worn, dusty path that has been my journey thus far I have done a myriad of different things, lived, worked and travelled to a bunch of different places on our earth however it seems that always as a constant has been my support of the Dees. As it is for me, it is for the Melbourne Football Club; there is a long and winding road behind and an open road in front. Never has the phrase “one game at a time” been more pertinent for this list. They look to be ticking off each game and then settling in for the next challenge no matter what the past results may have been. How good is it – Last week a win over the cats, this week a win over the hawks and next week the possibility of a trifecta with a win over the tigers. Makes me smile to think about it the possibility. The Musketeers did the job on Hawthorn. Hawthorn asked a few questions of us for the first half, and we had the answers. Second half, we asked the questions, and they had no answers. Great game from Max and I was interested to hear Goodwin say in his presser that it is Max that calls the shots on the ground as to when Jackson rucks and when he does. It is working well. 4th quarter was Musketeer Time. The whole team swashed a few buckles. Loved it And so, to the Round 6 encounter with the Tigers at the G on Saturday evening in the match of the round. Richmond have been very good for a long time and have a mature, well drilled team with a few players that are exceptional. However, it is hard to know what to make of their form so far this season. They won against Carlton, Hawthorn and St. Kilda as you would expect but dropped a game at the G against Sydney and a close one against Port interstate. Not exactly encouraging for Tiger fans. I want these 4 points to ensure that we put another game into the gap between the two sides and to preserve the winning run. The facts: We are coming off a win at the G against the Hawks- Advantage us. We were not up to standard for the first half – Advantage them They had a big win over the Saints at Marvel - Advantage them They have a few extra days rest. – Advantage them Problem areas of the game for us (yep, we have a few problem areas to address after the game on Sunday): I love the confidence in the team. They are confident in their teammates, confident in the structures that are in place and confident in their ability to run out games. This was evident in the game on Sunday. They worked the way they needed to, made adjustments that were required on the run and ran over the top in the last. Our defensive structure passed the test with Petty slotting into May’s spot and, once he picked up the pace of the game and settled, he was effective. He will be better for the run and if May is not 100% will be an adequate tall defender with Tomlinson and Lever around him. I was mildly surprised to see Jetta dropped in favour of Hibberd, but one that I supported. It was a good call with Hibberd producing an excellent game. A big test for our defenders this week with one of the best performed forward structures of recent times up against them. Riewoldt, Lynch and Martin in the forward area says it all. I think we can contain them if we break even in the middle. They have a very good midfield that is consistent across the board. Graham, Edwards and Castagna all give excellent drive out of the center and all are dangerous when given a sniff at a goal. For us, Oliver, Viney and Landon can, in my opinion, match and beat that lot. Dusty for them and Trac for us are the X factor in the midfield mix. Both are explosive players that can play through the middle and can move forward to kick goals. Which of these will have the most influence? Hard to predict. Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties last week and both had a lot more hitouts that McEvoy. Up against Nankervis this week will be a test, but I leave it to Max to call the shots during the game and use his smarts. Now for the forwards……. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Different players bobbed up at different times and it all came together in the last. The bad; Our forward pressure, or lack thereof in the first half. The ugly; connection issues between mids and forwards in the first 2 quarters It is going to be a three cheese platter night at the selection table this week with the main focus on the forward structure and who to play there. I do not think Fritsch will be fit this week, but we have a couple of fit, in form tall forwards that it would be nice to find space for but not at the expense of our present forward structure. I would bring in one of Wiedeman or B Brown for M Brown. Mitch was good but the other two provide more of a threat to Richmond. Which ever way we go, I think we have the firepower and flexibility up front to cause a few problems for the defenders. Prediction? With confidence I predict a Demons win. Margin? 5 goals. The bandwagon has hit the road….. the open road, not the long and winding one. Purring along and gathering speed. Plenty of seating for all…. Hop on board.
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CHANGES: Rd 05 vs Hawthorn
Watching the start of the Richmond/Saints game makes me think we need to have the height of Petty in the game this week to settle him into the structure for next week.
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My Round 5 Preview and Prediction
Fritsch out for a couple of weeks at the same time as May for this week's match means that we will be testing the structures at both ends of the ground. I can see Petty coming in for May but that might just depend on how the coaches see the Hawks presenting in their forward 50. We might just see Hibberd as better for this game. It will be an interesting selection that will tell us a bit about our approach to the game. With the unavailability of Fritsch, the selection meeting might need to munch through a second cheese board as they discus the best replacement.. A lot of questions to ask themselves. Goodwin has stated that BBB and Weid will play VLF this weekend and one question will be around the match fitness of these two. Is Mitch Brown in the frame? Do we shuffle Melksham forward and go with mids rotating forward? For me I would like a look at Jordon to replace Fritsch And leave the rest of the forward structure as it is for this round. Maybe bring in Chandler to replace Fritsch and rotate both Kossie and Spargo for short stints in the middle. Kossie for his quickness and imagination and Spargo for his tackling and hardness.... yes I said hardness.... Over the last couple of pre-seasons Spargo has built his body very well and now presents as a good, creative tough player. Still backing the win and, on the basis of our good structures and attitude, Still going for a 5 goal margin.
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My Round 5 Preview and Prediction
Yeah RtG, I can fully understand your trepidation. I also agree with you vision of Mitchell and the influence he can have but so far this season we have not been deterred from playing the game the way we want to. We have to a great extent imposed ourselves on the games we have played and done so as a team. It will take a team effort across the ground from all players to beat us and I do not see the Hawks having that depth of commitment so far this season.
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My Round 5 Preview and Prediction
4-0 4-zero 4- nil 4-zip 4 – nada I do like the look of that. The 4 is so important as is the figure 16 for the points we have thus far. I also like the number 8 which is the points break we have over a number of the pre-season ‘contenders’. And there is 2 which is our position on the ladder. 4 rounds, 4 wins and 16 premiership points in the bank. I watched it live via streaming and a few times I found myself thinking back to my childhood. As a young lad I just loved to go to the Saturday matinee that was on at the local cinema with my mates during the summer holidays. There was always a really good B grade adventure movie on. A western, a pirate saga or a good war story. All good, but my favourite was always the Musketeers. Damn they were good. Always having fun, Always getting into problem places only to be helped out by one of their other three mates. The backyard games after a Musketeers movie would find us with our sword sticks in hand giving a battle cry of “ALL FOR ONE – ONE FOR ALL!!” followed by a charge into Mum’s flowerbed to decapitate the hydrangeas. God, I got into trouble for that. The Melbourne Musketeers out played the Geelong Flowerbeds in Round 4. We had a musketeer troop in each area of the ground. They supported each other, exerted the pressure needed, were well lead and looked good doing it. It was another 4 points, but I find these points the sweetest of the season so far. And so, to the Round 5 encounter with the Hawks at the G on Sunday afternoon. What to say about the Hawks? Well, they have not been great so far this season. In all truth, I have to admit that I have not followed them all that closely. Saw a little of their game yesterday and while they have a couple of handy performers, they also have a lot of ordinary performers. Clarkson did a great job as a rookie senior coach when he first went there but personally, I think he has run his course. I look at them and see a very ordinary list playing to expectations. The facts: We are coming off a win at the G against the Flowerbeds - Advantage us. We still do not look to be playing to our potential – Advantage them They had a loss over in WA and have the flights to contend with. - Advantage us Howe injured for them and Lewis rubbed out, May out for us. - No advantage either way (maybe a bit for them with our loss of May) Problem areas of the game for us (not sure that this is the right terminology given the wins we have had): After four matches this season we are seeing a very different team performing in the red and blue than was running around last year. My observations are that the players seem to be very clear on their primary roles, playing them confidently and executing well. They also look to be responding to the on-field situation with more awareness. Well done to the coaching staff if this is the case as they look to have made the message simple and straightforward. A bit like the way we are playing at the moment. Defence, I was a bit worried about in the first quarter when Lever dropped a couple of simple marks that he would normally snaffle. However, once May went off early in the second, Lever rose to the occasion and did not just cut out errors from his game but took the leadership role in that area of the ground and did a great job with his troop of Musketeers. Next week will test our structure down back with the introduction of a new tall defender into the system. Looks as if it will be Petty and I do not mind that. I know I am down on Jetta a bit but I think Clarkson is just the sort of opposition coach that will come up with a plan to exploit Jetta’s limitations. Loved the way that they adjusted to May’s absence. Hunt is in great form. Hawks have a few good players in the middle but they will have a problem or three covering all of Oliver, Petracca and Viney and getting their own drive from the center. O’meara and Mitchell are the main threats in the middle and they will need to work hard to dictate terms. If we get the ascendancy there and put them on the back foot so they are reactive rather than proactive then that is the game right there. These three along with the support players are doing the job very well. Langdon is a great pickup for us and, as someone on this board observed, he and Hunt seem to feed off each other and I love the sight of the two of them running the wing. Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties is working well. The fixtures could not have been better for us with the teams we have met so far having not a lot of ruck talent to go against us. This has allowed Max to move around the ground as required covering defence as required and also moving forward to give an extra dimension to the forward structure. It has also allowed Luke to get some good experience and time in the ruck. If the mids keep to the Musketeer’s philosophy and play well and support each other, then we should dominate this area. Now for the forwards……. We have to include discussion of them you know….. The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Fristch with 4 (there is that number again… Fristch to get 5 this week?) The bad; This is a tough one…… The bad (for Geelong and I hope for Hawks) our forward pressure across the forward 50. The ugly; Fristch’s hair Good to be in the situation where our two missing key forwards are back playing and we are in no rush to get them back in the team. What a luxury it is to be able to nurture them to full fitness via Casey. I will be interested to see who the poor man’s Jayden hunt is sent to cover. Frost on TMac, Fristch? I just see our troop of forward Musketeer’s having too much flexibility for the Hawks defence. We have pressure forwards to tackle and harass, we have a lot of flexibility to rotate players through there to get the matchup we want to try and exploit and we are getting more accurate. Last week I predicted a 3 goal win and later revised it upwards to 5 goals and we won by 4. This week I do not want to get ahead of myself so I am going conservative and predicting a win to the Dees by 5 goals. The bandwagon is parked in the driveway, the red and blue livery polished to perfection and the bathwater steamer bubbling away. There are plenty of vacant seats on board at the moment but I am sure with 5-0 against our name the seats will fill fast. “All for one and one for all!”