demoncat

Agreed - our chances of securing pick 1 hinge on how West Coast rates the players in our range If they could get Curtin with pick 6 and one of O’Sullivan/Wilson/Leake/Windsor with pick 11 - they might think that’s worth it alongside our future first But equally they might just think the gulf between Reid and these players is too big, or even the gap between McKercher or Duursma and these players (and if that case they’d prefer North’s offer of pick 2 and the late first rounders) I also think a lot hinges on how they view Curtin - let’s say they think he’s a top 3 or 4 prospect but through intel think they can get him at pick 6, then our offer would actually be better than it seems because we’d be guaranteeing them a top 3 or 4 player with 6, and 11 and a future first would be better than North’s late first rounders Of course their interest in Curtin could be overblown, but nonetheless if it was the case it’s a pathway to pick 1 for us… albeit an unlikely one

I love David King now

I tend to agree, although would be more than happy if they took our current offer But surely they need to split pick 1 right? Totally understand them holding out for the best offer - as they should - but at the end of the day I think they’re in the same position as North in needing as much high end talent as possible over the next few years The only way they get that in this draft is by splitting 1 Their fans might disagree, but I’d still be taking ours or Norths offer come draft night…

Unclear whether the above makes West Coast more likely to accept our offer, but suggests at the very least North would be unwilling to offer anything further (which I personally agree with from their list build perspective)

More info from the article linked:

👀

Get him in

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/west-coast-eagles/afl-draft-2023-pick-1-trade-options-analysis-harley-reid-what-is-pick-1-worth-in-a-deal-west-coast-eagles-north-melbourne-melbourne-offers/news-story/a0a86d51358c9e10f834b850bfa50506

Curious what people think the value of Geelong’s pick 8 would be? Cal Twomey has stated that we - as well as Adelaide - are interested With Geelong seemingly interested in taking multiple picks to the draft, would 11, 42 and perhaps a future second or third round pick secure it? Or is that overs? Could be the missing piece of a play for pick 1 or another strong move up the draft for us

James Leake

Here is Cal Twomey’s most recent form guide: https://www.afl.com.au/news/1054452/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-october-ranking

I’m personally happy to go all chips in on pick 1 by offering 6, 11 and F1 although I’m doubtful that would get it done But I wouldn’t be keen on giving up 6 and 11 for anything less such as North’s pick 3 and a later first rounder To me, it seems like Reid is the clear number 1 pick and then there is a group of 6 or so players in the next bracket (Walters, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtin, Sanders) and then another group before a more significant drop off (Caddy, O’Sullivan, Read, Windsor, Leake, Rodgers and potentially Wilson) I’d happily take one of each group with 6 and 11 and don’t think it’s worth over paying to move up slightly in either - particularly as we already moved from 14 to 11 to get into the second tier

Who else does he manage? 👀

Couldn’t Melksham moving to the rookie list open up an extra spot? Two draft picks + Billings? Also possible that Brown gets rookied or we don’t take him at all

Looks like we could be in for another last day Tim Lamb special: https://x.com/tommorris32/status/1714391553035350298?s=46&t=uC9z4AjzfWvj5kf1WQ6J6g

Frustrating to think we might be going through another year of contract speculation, but the fact is we need him for 2024 Thankfully he’s contracted until 2025, so if he still wants out in 12 months, we get everything we can for him out of Adelaide and go hard for King, JUH or McDonald Having said that a lot can happen in a year or two, so there’s every chance he changes his mind and commits long term (r-right? 😢)

They haven’t categorically stated it but it was been speculated on by generally well regarded journalists like Cal Twomey They also split pick 2 last year to get 8 and 12 to get local players Gibney and Hewett Ultimately getting a local player rather than an interstate one won’t be the deciding factor in whether they trade pick 1 and who they pick, but there are a large number of people who think it will play some role in what they’re open to

He also said in a seperate segment that he currently has the first 6 picks as follows: 1 - Reid 2 - McKercher 3 - Duursma 4 - Watson 5 - Sanders 6 - Curtin Went on to say that is why he thinks we’re a chance of pulling off a play for Reid - i.e. that Curtin would be available at our pick Of course noting all of this is subject to change as clubs get a better idea of which club will take which player at their respective picks

Mate where has this come from? There has been no confirmation of his timeline from the club as far as I’m aware, other than that they’re confident the injury won’t impact his career long term Suggesting he won’t play for half a season is pure speculation - he could just as easily be ready to play round one if he can complete the post-Christmas part of the preseason

Forward comes out of contract / requests trade = Melbourne must have interest 🙄 There’s no way we’re bringing in Gunston when we’re already likely to have Fritsch, McAdam and Smith as medium tall options and Melksham potentially coming in late in the year

Hawks reportedly offered Brockman, pick 4 and their future first for pick 1 which was knocked back by West Coast

A bargaining tactic? Surely they’d offer pick 3 and a couple of other selections if that would get them pick 1 Having said that, if I was them I’d just take picks 2 and 3 and get the best two available, so maybe there’s some truth in what he’s saying 🤷‍♂️

Might have been a good get a couple of years ago when we were rumoured to have interest, but surely not now given his age and the McAdam trade Bizarre for him to be requesting a move back after only one year, will be curious to see whether the Hawks will take him back 🤔

Still not convinced we can get pick 1 with 6, 11 and a future first Surely we’d at least need to get our hands on pick 2 or 3 from the Roos while retaining pick 11? But then how do we get pick 2 or 3 without giving up 11? I’ll leave this one to Lamby…

Haven’t done the maths but probably similar value to the pick 27 we paid for him? Currently leaves us with 6, 11, 41 and 46 for this year, with our own future picks, Sydney’s future second and Dogs future third A bit to play out yet…