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old55

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Everything posted by old55

  1. old55
    I don't think that was the reason. I think it was because we rate Crouch about the same as Adelaide rate him - maybe even a bit lower. They clearly didn't rate him at 10 + Compo, and we would've needed to give 12 + Compo to beat their bid They gave 10 + Compo and got MD2 + a player mooted to go top 30.
  2. old55
    Freo would have salary cap limitation with Pav, Sandi, Mundy etc We've got Freo covered on $s and picks Clark has to want to come to us
  3. old55
    Well you won't get him for that because Freo will offer 16 + 20 which beats 12 IMO - it's that simple. If we're offering $5-600K x 4 years we're going to need to follow up in the trade with similar value.
  4. old55
    In effect they'd get Maric and Sierakowski for 40 We could give them 72 as well, it's a small improvement on 76. If we could get GC's 4th rounder 68? in a straight deal for Warnock we could throw that in. Maric + 54 + 68 for 40. If we managed to pull off the Clark deal then an upgrade to pick 40 could be helpful.
  5. old55
    We'd get something back from Brisbane for 12 + Compo - they've got decent picks - 29, 30 or 34 I'd offer 12 + Compo for Clark plus 29 - there's no way Freo can beat that. We'd still have 29, 36, 54 and a compo for next year.
  6. old55
    North hold the whip hand - they know he'll be delisted - we've got to delist somebody. Same with Warnock to GC. They'll be able to pick them up with their last ND pick or even an RD pick. We don't want players back because we need list space and we don't want a late draft pick, beyond the 3rd round, that we'll never use. The only currency in both these deals is a pick upgrade into the 2nd round. Maric + 54 for 40. Warnock + 36 for 27 (or even 32) are the only deals in town that are of interest.
  7. old55
    The Demons offered their compensation pick for losing Scully, which can be used up until 2015, and is tied to the ladder position of Melbourne. Melbourne also offered pick No.12 but wanted a draft selection inside the top 25 in return. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/suns-land-omeara-crows-in-box-seat-for-crouch-20111012-1lkew.html#ixzz1aiH4V24c
  8. old55
    If Clark is happy to come to us we'll get him because we can outbid Freo. But 12 alone doesn't outbid 16_20, we'll have to add more. If Clark insists on going to Freo, Brisbane will accept 16 + 20 in the end rather than have him go into the draft for nothing.
  9. old55
    If Clark can be persuaded to join us and Freo are prepared to offer 16 + 20 for him we'd need to do better than just pick 12. Something like 12 + Compo for Clark + 29 (Brisbane's next earliest pick)
  10. old55
    It would be but that's not what we offered - we wanted a pick inside 25 back - the latest GWS has is 14 - see The Age article discussing it linked in this thread.. Pick 12 + Compo for MD2 + 14 was our offer We could have beaten the Crows with Pick 12 + Compo straight but we didn't offer that presunmably because we think that overvalues Crouch
  11. old55
    True but the Compo pick GWS got off GC is the "mid 1st round" one after the non-finalists, the one they got off Adelaide is after Adelaide's pick. The other clubs with picks that could get in before us are the Dogs (after their pick) and Geelong (after their pick) - we're unlikely to finish higher than Geelong. There's 7 1st round picks in the mix: GWS (Cats post-non-finalists, Adelaide after pick), Dogs after pick, Cats after pick, MFC after pick and post-non-finalists. The rest of the picks are after the 1st round. The other factor is if start of 1st round PPs are still in with Port, GC and Brisbane all in line if they win less than 5 - someone has to play GWS twice, I would be surprised if GC and Brisbane don't win 5+, unconvinced about Port. So absolute worst case is 3 PPs and GWS Adelaide pick, Dogs pick and cats pick getting in before us to compromise the order - likely case 2 or 3 spots down grade. I guess the final factor is other uncontracted players going to GWS, if for example Goddard went then there'd be 2 extra 1st round picks in the mix.
  12. old55
    Maric + 54 for 40 would be nice.
  13. old55
    What would you offer?
  14. old55
    And that's clearly not the case - as I posted in the other thread: O'Meara + 31 for ND4 + Compo pick It's debatable whether ND12 + 2 Compo picks beats ND4 + Compo pick They only clear way we trump GC is to give 12 + 2 Compo picks clean It's a steep price, Bob said he'd do it, but he's the only one so far. Crouch + Luke Brown (rated top 30) for 10 + Compo Pick The only clear way we beat this is 12 + Compo pick clean Looks like we just don't rate Crouch that highly. Please don't bother to suggest smaller sweeteners than 31 or Brown - later than that we're into chump change picks we might not even use. And please don't insult everyone's intelligence by suggesting we bundle Bate, Warnock or Maric into the deal to get it over the line - GWS made it clear they weren't interested in even good players.
  15. old55
    Me too in theory - I'd give 2 picks for a genuine "top 5" without hesitation, I do get shaky on the 3 picks for O'Meara
  16. old55
    O'Meara + 31 for ND4 + Compo pick It's debatable whether ND12 + 2 Compo picks beats ND4 + Compo pick They only clear way we trump GC is to give 12 + 2 Compo picks clean It's a steep price, Bob said he'd do it, but he's the only one so far. Crouch + Luke Brown (rated top 30) for 10 + Compo Pick The only clear way we beat this is 12 + Compo pick clean Looks like we just don't rate Crouch that highly. Please don't bother to suggest smaller sweeteners than 31 or Brown - later than that we're into chump change picks we might not even use. And please don't insult everyone's intelligence by suggesting we bundle Bate, Warnock or Maric into the deal to get it over the line - GWS made it clear they weren't interested in even good players.
  17. old55
    What would you have given to beat GC or Adelaide?
  18. old55
    If you really want something of substance to gnash your teeth on, it;'s O'Meara going to the Suns. IMO that's at least as bad if not worse than him going back to GWS. They are building a super list up there. Then there's pick 4 going to GWS. Stars win flags and that's where you get them. If you think our list building model will deliver a flag then GCs will for sure because they've had better picks than us for longer. With my MFC hat on the AFL should have legislated that the MD picks had to go on players with greater than 3 years service. That would have excluded us from bidding our compo picks but it would've prevented what has happened. I can see why the AFL, GC and GWS would be happy, although the AFL is probably concerned that GWS will go 0-22 in 2012, GWS think they'll win the 2016 flag.
  19. old55
    The lowest GWS pick INSIDE 25 is 14. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/suns-land-omeara-crows-in-box-seat-for-crouch-20111012-1lkew.html#ixzz1aXsa0phX
  20. old55
    FFS ... and conspiracy theorists
  21. old55
    So much ignorance, assumption and mis-information from so many panic merchants, woe is me, henny-pennies!
  22. old55
    That's not correct http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=123360
  23. old55
    A lot of hysteria in this thread. It simply appears Adelaide outbid us for Crouch because they had an earlier ND pick than us. Crows bid ND10 + 1st round compo pick AFTER THEIR 1st round pick (not end of 1st round) for Crouch and pick 14 We could probably beat this with ND12 + 1st round compo pick after our 1st rounder for Crouch and pick 25 (Marty Clarke pick) But The Age says we want a pick back inside the top 25 - the next lowest pick GWS has is 14 (they traded 15 to Richmond in the Morris deal). GWS can't give us back picks they don't have. We clearly thought that the deal with only pick 25 back was paying over the odds for Crouch and so did the Crows because they are getting pick 14 back. We judged that the price is high.
  24. old55
    You gotta believe in something - otherwise give up. Bailey did the required job - we've lost nothing and gained plenty.
  25. old55
    Can't see how MD pick 2 can be traded ahead of pick 1 - what if pick 1 can't get done? Does pick 2 become pick 1? The Crows have ND 10 vs our ND 12 so we're in a bind there.
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